View from the Couch: Atlanta

Atlanta was just what NASCAR needed: An exciting race with few cautions and even less controversy. After the cheating at Daytona, lots of cautions (including disputed debris) at California, the tire complaints and wrecks at Las Vegas an uneventful weekend suited all parties well. A tight finish made things even better. Unfortunately, the racing will take a weekend or two off while the focus returns to the Car of Tomorrow. Expect widespread panic this week as several teams complain about the new car, while the few teams that did their winter homework laugh all the way to Victory Lane.

I had to tape the race and watched it last night. As a result I was more concerned with finishing the race than analyzing the various coverage elements. Many will say that’s a good thing. The one thing that stuck out to me was green flag runs give the Fox crew less time to goof around. That means they are talking about racing instead of showing needless fluff or allowing DW to go off on tangents. I though the coverage was pretty good on Sunday.

A few thoughts:
Ignore DW because Mark Martin will not make the Chase. He plans to miss the next two races and will certainly skip more during the summer. Say he misses two races that he normally scores top 20’s. Considering how he has run so far this year, that’s a safe estimate. That’s at least 206 points Martin leaves on the table. It would be tough to make that difference up. That’s also not accounting for any bad runs Martin has. Martin doesn’t seem to care, so why does everyone else want to make a big deal out of it?

-Props to Mike Bliss and BAM racing. They failed to qualify in the first three races, but Bliss was 9^th fastest at Atlanta and finished 21^st.

-Juan Pablo Montoya had a great run at Atlanta. Ganassi’s equipment is really improved and Montoya is learning quickly. After his first Cup top 5 his reward is 1000 laps of short track racing over the next two weeks. People can complain about Montoya saturation, but he is pretty exciting to watch. One of the most impressive things about Montoya’s run was the tire management. Teams were reporting minor tire issues and other cars struggled on long runs. Montoya drove aggressively but consistently. Consider that in Formula 1, the cars run one set of tires for two entire races.

-Setting aside the engine woes at California, DEI might have graduated from being an overgrown one-car team. There are early signs that they finally have two teams that can run well every week. Martin Truex Jr scored a top ten Sunday and ran well at Daytona and Las Vegas too. Dale Earnhardt Jr has spent the majority of the last two weeks in the top five, but hasn’t finished well. The finishes will come at the speedways. It’s a significant improvement over previous years where Earnhardt Jr was the only car capable of running up front every week. Now we’ll see if DEI paid attention to the Car of Tomorrow.

Who Would Have Predicted…
…That Evernham cars would have two top ten’s and none on the intermediate tracks where they usually run so well.

…That David Ragan would have more top fives (1) than Greg Biffle (0).

…The most consistent Dodge to date would be David Stremme.

…That Toyota would have this much trouble. Only one car (#44 Dale Jarrett) currently sits inside the top 35. David Reutimann can’t seem to avoid trouble. He now has 3 crashes in 3 races and sits 43^rd in points.

…That James Hylton would have as many points as Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger and more than Michael Waltrip.

…That after four races, there is no sign of a feud between any two drivers. That should change next weekend in a small Tennessee town called Bristol.

The Top 35 Derby

In European football (soccer for us Yanks) they call it relegation. At the end of the season the bottom three teams in the standings are sent down to the lower division, while three others are promoted. Unlike most US sports leagues, relegation battles create added excitement and interest for teams that otherwise have nothing to play for. Relegation means not only a lower level of competition, but significantly lower revenue. For teams in England, staying in the Premiere League means a piece of a billion dollar TV contract (about $60 million USD per team).

An NFL or NBA team that is out of playoff contention begins playing for next year. This often involves passively improving their draft pick status to land the next franchise player. Aside from waning fan support, there is no incentive for the bottom teams to remain competitive. For a losing franchise in the US, there is no reason to take interest.

Maybe the closest a US sport gets to relegation is NASCAR’s top 35 rule. Teams outside the top 35 in owner points have to qualify on time for seven or eight transfer spots to make each race. It’s not always a popular rule among fans, but it has definitely added excitement and interest for cars near the bottom of the standings. If not for the top 35 rule few would have paid attention to Kyle Petty and Sterling Marlin during the Chase. Instead it was an interesting side story as the season wound down. It also means a big difference in revenue for the teams. Obviously missing a race means no prize money, but also the potential of losing sponsors, the costs of traveling to races and their cut in the year end points fund.

The Nextel Cup is only two races in, but some teams are already in a huge hole for 2007. The first big landmark will come after the Bristol race. At that point the top 35 drivers in owner points are locked in. There are 12 teams attempting to enter the top 35, while 35 other teams attempt to stay anchored in the safety zone.

Based on the past three years, 400 points is the magic number for assured safety. That’s the average points total of the 32^nd place driver after 5 races. With more full time drivers competing to make races, that might be too high. 400 points breaks down to averaging 80 points per race, or finishing 26^th. For drivers like Brian Vickers and Paul Menard, who have already missed one race, the average bumps up to 100 points per race or a top 20 every week. Remember, Scott Riggs missed the Daytona 500 in 2006 and was back inside the top 35 by week 6. It’s not an impossible task.
Twelve drivers are trying to wriggle inside the top 35. The results range from sitting pretty to sitting on the edge of a cliff.

Joe Nemechek-A top ten at Daytona was huge. Nemechek currently has 259 points and sits 7^th in points. Ginn Racing has obviously improved all three teams since last year. Nemechek is an excellent qualifier and the points he’s already accumulated provide additional cushion.

Johnny Sauter-After a disastrous 2004 rookie year with Richard Childress, Sauter has returned from Busch purgatory. He was always a good driver-he won a Busch race in 2005- but couldn’t land another Cup ride until this season. Two top 20 finishes in two races quietly puts Sauter on pace to sit inside the top 35 with room to spare. Maybe the bigger concern is ensuring his teammate Jeff Green is around to join him.

Dale Jarrett-It is a different story for Jarrett without his past champion provisional. Using the provisional buys Jarrett at least six races, but he hasn’t piled up points so far. He is 28^th with 164 points, but struggled all day at California. How bad was it? His driver rating was 32.9 while running all day. Martin Truex Jr, who blew an engine after 14 laps, had a 37.1 driver rating. Jarrett should be fine in the long run, but MWR must find more speed.

Sterling Marlin-Qualifying on speed is old news to Marlin, who spent a large part of 2006 outside the top 35. The cars have been better so far this season, but an early crash at California hurt. Marlin’s 170 points puts him ahead of the 400 point pace, but he can’t afford the crashes that plagued him last season.

Brian Vickers-Team Red Bull finally made a race, and the finish was impressive. Doug Richert and Vickers form the best crew chief-driver combination of the Toyota cars. Vickers needs to average 88 points over the next three races to reach the 400 point mark. Qualifying for the Toyotas has still been troublesome, but once Vickers is in the race he is good enough to get Red Bull up and running.

David Reutimann-So far his record shows to races made on speed and three DNF’s including the Twin 150’s. He has been one of the fastest Toyotas in qualifying and certainly the most consistent of the MWR cars. Unfortunately he doesn’t have very many points to show for it. He sits 41^st with 107 points. With two more speedway races and then the rookie-humbling Bristol, it could be a challenge to make the top 35 after Bristol. Reutimann is definitely capable of making races and eventually entering the top 35.

Paul Menard-All the attention is on his teammates and their blown engines, but Menard had a steady race at California. His 103 points puts him in the ballpark for entering the top 35. He is currently 43^rd, although there are two part time drivers ahead of him that he will pass granted he continues to qualify for races. He was second fastest among Need for Speed drivers at California.

Michael Waltrip-The 100 point penalty from Daytona is enormous. After missing the CaliforniaToyota will figure things out as the season continues and all three of Waltrip’s cars will run better. It just won’t be immediately in the top 35. race, Waltrip still sits at -27 points after two races. What’s worse, his teammates were not very good on the intermediate track.

Jeremy Mayfield-The second Bill Davis team was expected to have a head start on the other Toyota teams because it was an established organization. Mayfield is a good driver and should be able to make two or three of the next few races. It is still a large hole missing the first two races. If he can’t make one of the next two races the year might turn into one big R&D session and building towards 2008. It sounds extreme, but that’s how competitive Cup has become.

AJ Allmendinger-It’s not surprising that the driver with no Cup experience would have the hardest time making races. What is surprising is that Allmendinger isn’t running the Busch series. He ran both truck races but he needs as much seat time as possible and Red Bull had to know it would be tough to do so at the Cup level. At least there are two road courses to circle on the calendar.

Mike Bliss, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace-These teams all have limited resources and zero Cup starts in 2007. It will be a feat to make more than six races combined this year. It will be a greater feat if all three teams are still entering races by the summer.

With five to six outside drivers in good position to enter the top 35, other drivers will fall. Here are five candidates:

Scott Riggs-With a rough start, Riggs again finds himself with a potential battle for the top 35. The 25 point penalty makes the situation more serious. At least Riggs will get crew chief Rodney Childers back for Las Vegas.

Kyle Petty-The 45 team spent last season struggling to regain a place in the top 35. With better funded teams looking to swoop in, Petty can’t afford many more DNF’s.

Ken Schrader-Schrader was the innocent victim of Dave Blaney’s reckless dive-bomb at Daytona. He is strong at short tracks, but he really needs strong runs at Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Jeff Green-Green had a decent run at Daytona ruined by Jimmie Johnson’s crash. Green has always languished in the high 20’s, but that may not be enough this year.

Dave Blaney-A wreck and a blown engine put Blaney in a hole. He has an established team, but the Camry is far from a finished product. Blaney overachieved last season with an under-supported team. If he falls outside the top 35 to start the season it is a squandered opportunity.

Break Out the Antacid

For a lot of teams Speedweeks this year is not very fun. Some very high profile, not to mention well-sponsored teams are not going make the Daytona 500. After single car qualifying, there are now 39 drivers locked in for next Sunday: the top 35 in owner points, Boris Said, Sterling Marlin and Johnny Sauter based on speed, plus Dale Jarrett's champion's provisional. Quick math shows there's only four spots left for the Daytona 500. Among the 22 teams on the bubble, nine have plans to run the entire schedule. Most have sponsorship, including prominent companies like NAPA, Dominos, Menards, and Red Bulll. At least five are leaving on Thursday. That means several teams will spend the next three days worrying and working on their cars to find more speed. It also means working on their answer to sponsors for why they missed NASCAR's highest profile race.

Is it possible that Thursday's Duel 150's could have more intrigue than Sunday's race? That's a stretch, but for a lot of teams it will set a tone for the season. Miss a race and it makes it much harder to enter the top 35 in points. Within the greater storyline to make the race, there are several smaller plots. Among the cars competing for the transfer spots, there are three formerDaytona 500 winners. Of the eight Toyota entries, only Jarrett and Dave Blaney have guaranteed spots. Two are certain to miss the race, but based on qualifying speeds, it will be more. Neither Toyota driver in the BudShooutout (Brian Vickers , Jarrett) did anything to show they are better in the draft than qualifying. Another problem is that one of the fastest Toyota's was Mike Skinner, a part-time entry. If Skinner makes the race, but teammate JeremyMayfield doesn't, how will Bill Davis handle that?

The two highest finishing drivers in each heat will make the race, with a few exceptions. If any of the three top qualifiers (Said, Sauter or Marlin) finish in the first two transfer spots, the next fastest qualifier makes the race, which is Jeremy Mayfield, then David Reutimann . The same would happen with the past Champion provisional. If Jarrett captures on the the transfer spots, then the provisional would fall to Bill Elliott.

Handicapping the field, Jeremy Mayfield is in good shape in Heat 1. Ward Burton and Bill Elliott have both won Daytona 500's, but can't overcome the limits of their cars. AJ Allmendinger has one plate race in the Truck Series and Team Red Bull is yet to qualify for a Cup race. It's a real long shot for Allmendinger. It is hard enough for a rookie to get drafting help, let alone a rookie with almost no stock car experience. Michael Waltrip's car was impounded after qualifying. Apparently it's not an infraction, but it does cost the team time that they can't work on the car.Waltrip is a good plate racer who is capable of hooking up with the right drafting partners. It's a big help to have his teammate Jarrett in his heat.

In heat 2, David Reutimann is a rookie, but has raced in 6 plate races in the Truck and Busch series. He was one of the fastest Toyotas and has the best chance of the Toyotas to make the field. DEI traditionally has stronger cars in race trim which should allow Paul Menard to compete better than his qualifying time suggests. JoeNemechek will hope for the same thing, and Ginn racing does have Hendrick power to boos that effort. Brian Vickers is a good plate racer but the Toyotas haven't been very strong so far. Unless he learned something on Saturday night, his chances do not look very good. The X factor as far as full-time teams are concerned is Mike Skinner. He has made two of the last threeDaytona 500's as a part time driver and was one of the quicker cars on Sunday.

All the preparation, speed and drafting partners still might not be enough. Scott Riggs had a mechanical issue during qualifying and then a problem in the pits cost him his chance in the 500. Menard suffered a flat tire in his heat last year. The unknown only adds more pressure and anxiety for the drivers leading up to Thursday afternoon. Obviously missing the first race is not a fatal blow, look at Riggs for exhibit A. The problem is there will be 12 full-time teams next week at California all trying to make the race all over again.

2007 Driver Previews: Brian Vickers

Brian Vickers Age: 23
1 win, 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 14 top 15’s
Avg start: 16.8 Avg Finish: 19.2
Points Standing: 15th Driver Rating: 76.3
#83 Red Bull Toyota Crew Chief: Doug Richert

If Brian Vickers got his fortune told this time last year, it would go something like this:
“After four years driving for Hendrick Motorsports you will leave for a brand new Toyota team. Then you will be banned from team meetings and given the cold shoulder by teammates. On the bright you will finally get your first Cup win. The bad news is it will be one of the most unpopular wins in recent years, coming at the expense of a teammate, plus the most famous driver in the sport. Other than that, it should be a pretty uneventful year. Good Luck.”

That is Vicker’s season in a nutshell. He had a lot of positive things happen, but they were usually overshadowed by a negative consequence. To his credit, Vickers handled things with maturity and tried his best to focus on racing. The biggest story for his season was his announcement he was leaving Hendrick Motorsports. Shortly after he signed with the upstart Team Red Bull.

Vickers' 2006 season was solid but not spectacular. He scored his first win and improved two positions in the points, but it was a very similar season to 2005. He would have some nice runs coupled with several mediocre ones. In fact he didn't have back to back top tens until the 29th and 30th races. As the season progressed his finishes did improve overall. The first 18 races his average finish was 20.9, while his average in the second half was 17.5. It was even better during the Chase when he averaged 14.8, including four top tens. The other improvement forVickers was finishing races. He had a mere 2 DNF's, down from four in 2005, and seven in 2004.

2007 might be the most challenging season yet for Vickers. A brand new Toyota team has lots of questions to answer. One big asset is his crew chief, Doug Richert. Richert helped Greg Biffle won 10 races in the last three years and is highly regarded in the garage. His experience dates back to working on Dale Earnhardt's team in the early 80's. Pairing a veteran crew chief with young driver is a popular and often successful combination in Cup.

Richert's first task is ensuring Vickers makes every race. the good news is Vickers is an excellent qualifier. In 2006 he had 14 top ten starts including one pole at Texas. His career average start is 16.0. With no owners points to start this will be paramount in 2007. Vickers must make the first five races based on time. He shouldn’t have a problem, but things can happen in qualifying. A flat tire, a bobble in a turn or a bad setup could foil the best plans. A missed race will not ruin his season, but would be a setback.

At Hendrick, Vickers was able to gather information and advice from established veterans like Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. His new team will not have that luxury. Vickers teammate is rookie AJ Allmendinger. Making a switch from open-wheel racing to stock cars presents a huge challenge for Allmendinger. That places any expectations for success in 2007 squarely on Vickers.

Vickers' specialty is 2.5 mile tracks. He is an excellent plate racer at both Daytona and Talladega. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. His average finish at Pocono is 8.5, including three top five finishes. Vickers is still refining his skills at short tracks, but he does excel at the 1-mile flat tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

The move marks a fresh start for Vickers. He took a lot of criticism in his three years in the #25 car. The switch was widely questioned in the media and assumed it was based on money. Surely millions of dollars played a part, but there are plenty of reasons for Vickers to switch teams. Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that Vickers is only 23. He is a talented driver that has dealt with a lot in his young career. He won a Busch Championship before he could legally drink Busch beer. He endured the Hendrick plane crash in 2004. As long as he was at Hendrick he would be fourth priority. A switch to Toyota gives Vickers the chance to be the number one driver and be recognized for his talent instead of a cog in the Hendrick machine. It's a bold move, but at least he has the chance to shine on his own. Now the rest is up to Vickers.

Who has the best Engine Programs?

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team's engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dale Jarrett

Dale Jarrett Age: 50
0 wins, 1 top 5, 4 top 10's, 10 top 15's
Avg start: 28.2, Avg Finish: 22.7
Points rank: 23^rd Driver Rating: 57.5
#44 UPS Toyota Crew Chief: Matt Borland

2006 did not go the way anyone at Robert Yates Racing had hoped. For Dale Jarrett it was a season of struggles and transition but also hope. Jarrett's on-track performance was one of the worst seasons of his 22 year career. Four top tens was the lowest season total since 1989. He scored at least seven per year from 1990-2005. He went winless for the second season in three years. Things were rough on the track, but Jarrett does have a fresh start to look forward to in 2007.

After 12 years with Robert Yates Racing Jarrett will drive for Michael Waltrip Racing, helping to introduce Toyota to the Cup stage. This presents a new challenge for the 50 year old Jarrett. It's a new manufacturer, new organization, a new crew chief (again) and maybe a new perspective for Jarrett. While that is a lot of changes, Jarrett will keep UPS as sponsor. Keeping his same sponsor since 2001 guarantees the popular, “He's going to drive the truck” ad campaign will continue.

On the track the numbers spelled struggle for Yates and Jarrett. His season driver rating was 57.5, 29th among full time drivers. A fourth at Kansas was his only top five of the season. Even that was more the result of fuel mileage than a great run in a strong car. On the other hand he finished 23^rd in the point standings. This means he didn't run well, but avoided trouble and finished races higher than he deserved. Some of this slump is attributed to Jarrett, much of the problems fell on the Yates team. They trailed the other powerhouse teams on every track except Daytona and Talladega.

The season was especially rough for Robert and Doug Yates. Coinciding with Jarrett's announced exit, Crew chief Slugger Labbe was also suspended four races for a sway bar infraction at Richmond. He was later released from Yates, along with fellow crew chief Tommy Baldwin and General Manager Eddie D'Hondt. Yates' other driver Elliott Sadler also left mid season for Evernham motorsports. 2006 was also the first season in his 18 years that Robert Yates didn't score a victory.

Jarrett did enjoy some highlights among the frustration. He started things off with a tenth place finish at Daytona and followed that with a ninth at Atlanta three races later. The weekend of the Darlington race in May, Jarrett announced he would drive for Waltrip in 2007. He finished 21^st or better in the first ten races, including two top tens and four top fifteens. After the announcement, Jarrett's performance sunk. Except for a 20^th at Michigan, he didn't finish better than 22^nd for the next 13 races. He did finish strong with six top fifteen finishes in the final 12 races. It wasn't a dream ending for his Yates tenure, but he didn't mail it in either.

Heading to 2007 there are two big questions to ask. Can Jarrett still get up on the wheel or will he enjoy his golden parachute? Can Waltrip Racing provide consistent cars for Jarrett?

Crew chief Matt Borland left Ryan Newman's team at Penske to join Toyota and Jarrett. Jarrett's biggest complaint at RYR was the lack of engineers. Borland might place the greatest emphasis on engineering of any crew chief on tour. This is often a good trait, but last year it didn't serve Newman and and Borland well. They wasted the beginning of the season and presumably the offseason on perfecting the 2004 Dodge Intrepid. Borland will be Jarrett's sixth crew chief in three seasons. The addition of Borland and his fresh perspective should help reignite Jarrett.

He is assured a place in the field thanks to his Champion's provisional. He and Dave Blaney are the only Toyota cars with a guaranteed spot for the first five races. Jarrett should have no problem entering the top 35 and staying there the entire season. That means he can focus less on qualifying and more on the actual races. Unless the Camry proves totally flaky, Jarrett should be able to score 5-7 top tens. In the right equipment Jarrett is still one of the top restrictor plate drivers. He also has impressive numbers at Michigan, Atlanta and Bristol. He has won at 16 different tracks. His best chance for top tens are at these three track

Jarrett is one of the most popular and well-respected drivers in the sport. The tentative plan is to drive for two more seasons and then retire. Of course, drivers have changed plans before. Jarrett is past competing for championships, but given the right car at the right race he can still vie for wins and top fives.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dave Blaney

Dave Blaney Age: 44
0 wins, 1 top 5, 2 top 10's, 4 top 15's
Avg Start: 28.3 Avg finish 24.4
#22 Caterpillar Toyota Crew Chief: Kevin Hamlin

With seven full-time Toyota cars in 2007, who will be most successful? There is Brian Vickers, a young driver with potential. There is former Winston Cup Champ Dale Jarrett. What about established veterans Jeremy Mayfield and Michael Waltrip? Believe it or not, the most successful season just might come from Dave Blaney.

Blaney is the only Toyota driver inside the top 35 in owner points. Bill Davis Racing is also the only Toyota outfit with Cup experience. Neither Michael Waltrip Racing nor Red Bull have competed at the Cup level. Both will experience growing pains in their debuts. That leaves Blaney as the driver with the greatest chance to consistently run well for Toyota.

For the past three seasons BDR has fought legal issues with Dodge, while trying to remain competitive at the Cup level. In this context, Blaney had a pretty solid season. If there was an award for getting the most out of his equipment, Blaney would win. He ranked fifth in laps completed at 98.3%. His cars weren't always fast, but Blaney maximized his finishes. He scored a the car's first top five since the opening race of 2004. He also laid a foundation for improvement in 2007.

Most of the season Blaney survived races and avoided trouble. He only had two DNF's, but his equipment limited him to runing in the 20's and 30's. The first sign of progress was a three race stretch in July. He finished 17th (Chicago), 13th (Loudon) and 16th (Pocono). This was part of a run where he finished on the lead lap in 8 of 10 races. Things got even better in September. He ran exceptionally well at Richmond with a season high 108.7 driver rating and a fourth place finish. For an underfunded team, it was practically a victory. He followed up with a ninth place finish at Loudon and a 12th at Dover.

While moral victories are nice, Blaney finally broke through at the NASCAR level in October. He won a wild Busch race at Lowe's, holding off Matt Kenseth and displaying some serious car control. His first win in NASCAR's top three levels was overshadowed by Kevin Harvick clinching the Busch championship. It still capped an impressive fall for Blaney. It could make for an even better 2007.

For the first season since 2003, BDR gets manufacturer support. BDR is already the premiere Truck organization, backed by Toyota. Getting any support at the Cup level will elevate performance, but Toyota's funding could be enormous. Blaney also welcomes a new teammate for 2007. Michael Waltrip was technically a teammate last year, but he basically consumed cars, resources and owner points. Jeremy Mayfield will drive the #36 BDR car in 2007. Mayfield spent the fall testing cars for BDR. This will help deepen the data pool for both teams. Both drivers have tested the Car of Tomorrow, which is the great unknown for every team. Will BDR's success in the truck series translate to the boxier, heavier CofT?

Blaney will also race full-time in the Busch series for Braun racing in '06. It's his first full Busch season since 1999. While most Cup drivers have reduced their full-time Busch efforts, it makes sense for Toyota teams to get more track time in the new Camry. There will no doubt be wrinkles to iron out in the brand new car. Blaney certainly doesn't need the seat time that a rookie would, but racking up a few top fives or another win in the Busch series never hurts.

With his dirt track background it is not surprising Blaney's strength is tracks where car control is a necessity. Darlington, Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix are all places that Blaney can run well. His best average finish is at Homestead where he had a top ten in 2005. After bouncing around for the past four years from BDR, Jasper, RCR and back to BDR, 2007 grants Blaney some stability. He is finally in the same ride for more than one season. Blaney finished 26th in points in 2006. It is not crazy to think he could crack the top 20. Toyota has several higher profile drivers, but Blaney is the one people will talk about if Toyota has success in 2007.

NASCAR Driver Preview: AJ Allmendinger

AJ Allmendinger
Age: 25
Crew Chief: Rick Viers

Of the seven rookies scheduled to appear in 2007, the greatest unknown is AJ Allmendinger. Maybe unknown isn't the right word, how about greenest rookie in stock cars? Every rookie is a wildcard to some degree. Juan-Pablo Montoya comes from an open-wheel background with very little stock car experience. At least Montoya is with an established team that is inside the top 35. David Reutimann will drive for Toyota and will have no owner’s points. At least Reutimann has 107 combined starts among the three NASCAR series. Allmendinger begins with two strikes. He has little stock car experience and will drive for Team Red Bull, a team yet to run a NASCAR race. A brand new driver to stock cars hired by a brand new team. It will be a rough season all around. It is difficult to know exactly how the year will play out because there is not a lot known about Team Red Bull.

So what do we know about Allmendinger? He spent the last three years in the Champ Car World Series. After four second place finishes in 2005, he enjoyed a breakout year in 2006. He won five races, including three straight, and finished third in points. He was one of three Americans to race in the CCWS in 2006, and the only one with more than one start.

During his off weeks in 2006, Allmendinger began testing a truck for Bill Davis Racing. He drove in three Craftsman Truck races, and stoking an interest in stock car racing for Allmendinger. His NASCAR debut was at the New Hampshire truck race. He qualified 33rd and grinded out a 13th place finish. That was followed by a fifth at Talladega. For his first two races in a top stock car series, it was impressive. His final race of the year was at Atlanta. After qualifying on the outside front row, he crashed on the fifth lap. He also attempted to qualify for the Atlanta and Texas Cup events. Cup qualifying was rained out and he was too slow at Texas.

At this point Allmendinger’s stock car resume is three truck races and two failed Cup races. If you are keeping score, that’s 307 truck laps, 2 qualifying laps at Texas and 26 practice laps at Texas. No driver in recent memory has landed a full-time Cup with such little experience. By comparison Montoya raced in 7 races among ARCA, Busch and Cup.

Further, Allmendinger has little oval experience compared to an open wheel driver transitioning from the IRL. The only ovals he raced at in ChampCar were Milwaukee and Las Vegas. Vegas is the only track that has a Cup event. Drivers like Montoya and Sam Hornish are much more familiar with many of the Nextel Cup's oval tracks.

Allmendinger is only 25, and is certainly a top prospect in any racing series. This doesn't mean he won't succeed in NASCAR. It only points out the enormous hurdles he faces compared to other rookies and young drivers in the ranks.

In a whirlwind season, the two tracks that will lend comfort are Sonoma and Watkins Glen. Road racing obviously shouldn’t be a problem. Sonoma is too soon in the year to expect great success, Allmendinger will still be getting comfortable to the heavier, less precise stock cars. Watkins Glen should be circled on the schedule. By August, he should be ready to make a serious run at a top ten or top five.

So what do we know about Team Red Bull? Not as much as other teams. While Michael Waltrip Racing seems to have frequent releases and announcements, Red Bull tends to keep a lower profile. Aside from deep pockets, Team Red Bull does not assume any competitive advantages to help their 2007 campaign. No owners points or champion provisional, zero NASCAR races started which also means very few notes from 2006. Their key hires have come from top organizations like Evernham, Ford Racing and especially luring Doug Richert from Roush Racing.

Crew Chief Rick Viers will be the largest key to Allmendinger's progress. Viers worked last year for Bill Davis Racing, helping in the Truck Series as well as Bill Lester's two Cup races. He also was crew chief during Allmendinger's three Truck races. Job number one is finding a fast qualfying setup. Once they make some races the goals must be to get laps, avoid too many crashes and start compiling a good notebook. Finding a Busch ride for more seat time would help too.

Allmendinger is obviously talented and plenty of open wheel drivers have succeeded in Cup. Unfortunately, 2007 might be the most competitive season ever. Making the field every week will be challenging for the 10-15 teams outside the magical 35 window. The good news is that Red Bull and Toyota are prepared to struggle next year, and Allmendinger should get plenty of leniency. Once he does figure it out, Red Bull might reap the rewards for thinking outside the box.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Michael Waltrip

Michael Waltrip			Age: 43
#55 NAPA Toyota			Crew Chief: David Hyder
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
33	0	0	0	1
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points	Driver Rating
0	31.9	30.9	36th	42.3

For the first time since 1986 Michael Waltrip did not score a top ten finish. 1986 was also the last time
Waltrip did not start a Cup race. In fact, he missed three plus a fourth race where he purchased his entry. On the track 2006 was a disaster for Waltrip.

How bad was it? He had one finish (14th at Talladega) inside the top fifteen. He had a mere 5 lead lap finishes compared to 7 DNF's. It's never a good sign when you have more DNF's than lead lap finishes. Beyond his the DNF's he had 15 "bottom 10's". To ensure he made the first five races, he purchased owners points from Doug Bawel and the defunct #77 Penske team. This luxury was quickly squandered by poor finishes. By the ninth race, Waltrip was outside the top 35 for good. Things only swirled further down the drain from there. Waltrip did not qualify
for the Coca Cola 600, but purchased Derrick Cope’s ride to satisfy his sponsor, Napa. It’s unclear whether Napa
was satisfied with Waltrip’s 41st place finish at Charlotte. Waltrip also missed the second largest race, the Brickyard 400 plus Richmond and Homestead.

After several great runs in 2005 while showing some serious skill, 2006 seemed like a wasted year on track. After an 18th at the Daytona 500, the year took an immediate dive. Blown engines, faulty brakes and crashes explained some of the problems. Sometimes Waltrip made problems for himself. At the spring Bristol race, he misunderstood his spotter and plowed into two crashed cars, half a lap after the original wreck. Mechanical failures or plain bad luck is one thing; every driver endures both. Adding poor judgment to the problems really compounds matters. The one relatively bright spot was his Busch Series efforts. A second place at the fall Charlotte race highlighted 3 top tens in 21 starts.

Sure his on-track record was dreadful, but his off track activities were very successful. Toyota appointed him to be the flagship team for their 2007 entry to Cup. He secured enough sponsorship for three cars and hired Dale Jarrett and David Reutimann to drive. He also hired a lot of organizational talent: Ty Norris, Matt Borland, Larry Carter and David Hyder among others. Don’t let his goofy, sponsor-pitching personality fool you; he has a definite plan for his company. Sponsors obviously love him and that is a big part of any organization. When he announced he was leaving DEI for Bill Davis Racing, it was a puzzling move. Of course that was before he was granted the task of starting a new organization from scratch. While it essentially cost him his 2006 season, his long range plans remain on course.


Waltrip probably won’t see great improvement in 2007. Plate tracks will again be his strength. Even in an under-supported Charger, Waltrip had his strongest races at Daytona and Talladega. His experience in the draft is a huge asset, especially when the strength of his cars is unknown. Making the Daytona 500 shouldn’t be a problem and would get his team off to a solid start.

It might be surprising that based on average finish, Waltrip’s best track is Sonoma (avg finish 15.9, 7 top tens in 15 races). Aside from plate tracks, he has also been historically solid at Charlotte and Bristol. Waltrip has 675 career starts, fourth most among drivers with a 2007 ride. Waltrip must rely on his vast experience to regain his pre-2006 form.

Qualifying isn’t a great strength, although he did capture the pole at Pocono in 2005. It was his first pole since George H Bush was in office. His best effort last year was 19th and his average start was 31.9.

While Waltrip is capable of putting together strong runs at any track, he has never finished in the top ten in points. Even in his best years at DEI, Waltrip struggled with weekly consistency. He can’t afford to start the year erratically. David Hyder will be the crew chief in 2007. He worked with Ken Schrader for the last two years as crew chief first at BAM racing and last year at Wood Brothers. Creating immediate chemistry between the two will be vital for the season.

Overall, the Toyota cars will struggle initially. Many people have predicted dominance from Toyota, but that will not be in 2007. The biggest challenge will be the intermediate tracks. These tracks are the most aerodynamically intense and require the most R&D help. Perhaps the one program where MWR and Toyota are on an even playing is the Car of Tomorrow. Other established teams already have an inventory of 2006 cars and the associated technology, but everyone is starting at the ground floor with the new CoT.

Returning to the top 35 is definitely attainable. He is capable of collecting a few top tens, although improving on his 2 top 15 finishes is a more immediate goal. Like the other Toyota teams, simply making races to lay the groundwork for future seasons is priority one. After having his feet in two camps last year, Waltrip can finally focus all of his efforts in one place in 2007. That doesn’t mean he will be less busy, but probably more focused in one place.

Nascar Driver Preview: Jeremy Mayfield

Jeremy Mayfield			Age: 37
#36 OTC 360 Toyota			Crew Chief: Tommy Baldwin
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
22	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	24.3	28.6	39th	53.6
Running at Finish	Lead Lap Finish	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
19	9	15	3	$2,546,999

At least Mayfield has an appropriate sponsor for 2007. OTC 360 can help relieve the heartburn that was his ’06 season. Without dwelling too much on the tabloid-esque drama, here’s a quick summary. Prior to 2006, Ray Evernham moved Mayfield’s team director Kenny Francis to Kasey Kahne’s team. Mayfield struggled so badly that he fell out of the top 35 in owner’s points. After the Brickyard in August he was replaced by Bill Elliott, which led to Mayfield filing a lawsuit against Evernham. He was eventually replaced by Elliott Sadler. Meanwhile Mayfield signed with Bill Davis Racing to drive a new second car in 2007. There were other, less important details that came out on both sides of the Mayfield-Evernham squabble that didn’t relate to his on-track performance. They only made things ugly for both parties and left Mayfield without a ride for the rest of the season.

Whatever story you believe, you can’t deny Mayfield’s ugly results in 2006. He was one of seven drivers to qualify for the Chase in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he struggled to stay in the top 35 in owner’s points.

In 2005 he made the Chase on the strength of finishing races on the lead lap. If he wasn’t racking up top fives, at least he was consistently staying out of trouble. There was a lot of talk about how the Dodge teams struggled with the new Charger, so the fact that Mayfield rarely ran up front was excused.

This past year, it was more obvious that something with Mayfield’s driving style didn’t work with what Evernham’s program. The team figured out some key elements with the Charger. Kasey Kahne won three of the first 12 races. Scott Riggs had three top tens and one pole in the same span. Riggs also had several other races where he ran in the top ten the majority of the race. Meanwhile Mayfield struggled from the start.

It wasn’t even a case of bad luck or getting caught up in other’s wrecks. He had two DNF’s all year. It was more a case of Mayfield flat out struggling. He only had four top twenty finishes all year and zero top tens. Mayfield also had a 53.6 driver rating for the season, placing him with the back markers and field fillers.

The relative high point was a two race stretch in the spring. He qualified 2^nd at both Charlotte and Dover before finishing 15th and 18th respectively. Mayfield had his best race at Dover. He led 14 laps and ran in the top 20 all day. It was also his highest driver rating, 82.5. For context, an 82.5 is about a 15th place car. Unfortunately, he would not have another finish better than 22nd.

It’s hard to believe Mayfield’s claims that Evernham didn’t provide enough support for the 19 car. Mayfield’s entire fleet of top 15 caliber cars moved with Francis to Kahne’s team. Meanwhile Mayfield’s team built all new cars. Whatever technological advances Evernham discovered during the off-season would have been applied to the new batch of cars. Further, Sadler jumped in and finished tenth in his first race.

Moving forward, Mayfield is certainly better than his 2006 season. He is also not an elite driver. He is sandwiched somewhere in the middle. Given the right equipment he can compete for the occasional win but is not going to lead a lot of laps or threaten for a top ten every week.

For 2007, it turns out falling out of the top 35 was good practice for Mayfield. Qualifying will be the biggest hurdle for all the Toyota teams initially. Making the first five races for Mayfield is paramount. If he doesn’t, his season could slide very quickly.

Former Evernham crew chief Tommy Baldwin will call the shots for Mayfield this year. Ironically Baldwin began 2006 as Sadler’s crew chief at RYR before being released to join Bill Davis Racing. Before Mayfield signed, Baldwin stepped in as Michael Waltrip’s crew chief to finish the year.

Mayfield’s best tracks on tour are Dover, Darlington and Pocono. He has two wins, four top 5’s and nine top 10’s at the triangular Pocono.

While 2007 might be a disjointed year for Mayfield, the long term future is solid for BDR and Toyota. Bill Davis is a powerhouse in the truck series and with Toyota’s support will now turn its focus to Cup. For the first time in four years Davis will have manufacturer support for his Cup teams. Davis will have two fully sponsored Cup cars for the first time since 2003.

When setting goals for Mayfield and the #36 car, it’s important to remember that this is a brand new team with a brand new manufacturer. To qualify for at least 90% of the races (32+), get inside the top 35 in points, and capture one or two top tens. If all of these things happen it sets a nice foundation for 2008. If Mayfield struggles to qualify or can’t run well enough to stay inside the top 35, things could get frustrating. Mayfield can’t get caught up in short term success in ’07, when the team won’t be ready to really compete until 2008.