2007 Driver Previews: Brian Vickers

Brian Vickers Age: 23
1 win, 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 14 top 15’s
Avg start: 16.8 Avg Finish: 19.2
Points Standing: 15th Driver Rating: 76.3
#83 Red Bull Toyota Crew Chief: Doug Richert

If Brian Vickers got his fortune told this time last year, it would go something like this:
“After four years driving for Hendrick Motorsports you will leave for a brand new Toyota team. Then you will be banned from team meetings and given the cold shoulder by teammates. On the bright you will finally get your first Cup win. The bad news is it will be one of the most unpopular wins in recent years, coming at the expense of a teammate, plus the most famous driver in the sport. Other than that, it should be a pretty uneventful year. Good Luck.”

That is Vicker’s season in a nutshell. He had a lot of positive things happen, but they were usually overshadowed by a negative consequence. To his credit, Vickers handled things with maturity and tried his best to focus on racing. The biggest story for his season was his announcement he was leaving Hendrick Motorsports. Shortly after he signed with the upstart Team Red Bull.

Vickers' 2006 season was solid but not spectacular. He scored his first win and improved two positions in the points, but it was a very similar season to 2005. He would have some nice runs coupled with several mediocre ones. In fact he didn't have back to back top tens until the 29th and 30th races. As the season progressed his finishes did improve overall. The first 18 races his average finish was 20.9, while his average in the second half was 17.5. It was even better during the Chase when he averaged 14.8, including four top tens. The other improvement forVickers was finishing races. He had a mere 2 DNF's, down from four in 2005, and seven in 2004.

2007 might be the most challenging season yet for Vickers. A brand new Toyota team has lots of questions to answer. One big asset is his crew chief, Doug Richert. Richert helped Greg Biffle won 10 races in the last three years and is highly regarded in the garage. His experience dates back to working on Dale Earnhardt's team in the early 80's. Pairing a veteran crew chief with young driver is a popular and often successful combination in Cup.

Richert's first task is ensuring Vickers makes every race. the good news is Vickers is an excellent qualifier. In 2006 he had 14 top ten starts including one pole at Texas. His career average start is 16.0. With no owners points to start this will be paramount in 2007. Vickers must make the first five races based on time. He shouldn’t have a problem, but things can happen in qualifying. A flat tire, a bobble in a turn or a bad setup could foil the best plans. A missed race will not ruin his season, but would be a setback.

At Hendrick, Vickers was able to gather information and advice from established veterans like Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. His new team will not have that luxury. Vickers teammate is rookie AJ Allmendinger. Making a switch from open-wheel racing to stock cars presents a huge challenge for Allmendinger. That places any expectations for success in 2007 squarely on Vickers.

Vickers' specialty is 2.5 mile tracks. He is an excellent plate racer at both Daytona and Talladega. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. His average finish at Pocono is 8.5, including three top five finishes. Vickers is still refining his skills at short tracks, but he does excel at the 1-mile flat tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

The move marks a fresh start for Vickers. He took a lot of criticism in his three years in the #25 car. The switch was widely questioned in the media and assumed it was based on money. Surely millions of dollars played a part, but there are plenty of reasons for Vickers to switch teams. Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that Vickers is only 23. He is a talented driver that has dealt with a lot in his young career. He won a Busch Championship before he could legally drink Busch beer. He endured the Hendrick plane crash in 2004. As long as he was at Hendrick he would be fourth priority. A switch to Toyota gives Vickers the chance to be the number one driver and be recognized for his talent instead of a cog in the Hendrick machine. It's a bold move, but at least he has the chance to shine on his own. Now the rest is up to Vickers.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch Age: 28
1 win, 7 top 5's, 12 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 10.4 Avg Finish: 19.4
Points Standing: 16th Driver Rating: 86.3
#2 Miller Lite Dodge Crew Chief: Roy McCauley

Everything was new for Kurt Busch in 2006. Moving from Roush to Penske meant new cars,crew, sponsors and also brought new struggles. Aside from a win at Bristol, the season had its fill of disappointments. After making the first two installments of the Chase, Busch did not come close in 2006.

The way Busch qualified in 2006 was from a Folger's commercial: Someone has secretly switched Ryan Newman's qualifying setups with Busch's. Won 6 poles. His career total was three prior to 2006. His 10.4 average starting position was second to Jeff Gordon. The problem wasn't the starts, but rather the finishes. His average finish was a disappointing 19.4.

No matter what Busch tries, he is a lightening rod for controversy and criticism. At Bristol, his winning pass was made by bumping leader and former teammate Matt Kenseth out of the way. It was a legal move, but it wasn't popular with some drivers or fans. Two races later he was involved in a crash with the dominant car of Greg Biffle (another former teammate, ironically). The drivers settled their differences, but their girlfriends did engage in a heated exchange on pit row.

They were two of several forgettable episodes in a forgettable year for the elder Busch. A common theme during his season went like this: Start the race at the front, then suffer problems on pit road costing track position and often leading to mistakes on the track. This happened at Atlanta, the second Bristol race, and both Texas races. Other races he started up front, led laps and then faded late from the wrong adjustments.

Despite the challenges, Busch did make progress during the summer. Starting with a 2nd at Pocono, Busch scored six top tens (including 4 top fives) in seven races. He still had an outside chance of cracking the top ten heading to Watkins Glen. After sitting on the pole, Busch led 38 laps and appeared to have the dominant car. Late in the race he entered the pits just as the caution came out. He mistimed the stop by mere seconds, resulting in a penalty that sent him to the rear of the field. He finished 19th, but it ended any real possiblity to make the Chase. The rest of the season was very uneven. He would score a top five finish one week and then slog his way to a 25th place finish the following week.

Busch's results were the worst since his rookie season. The past four years Busch averaged 3.5 wins, 10 top fives and 18.25 top tens. He led 15 races but only 272 laps. A season of transition was expected, but not to such extents. Looking from the outside, it appeared Busch was inheriting Rusty Wallace's car that made the 2005 Chase. In truth, Busch had very few holdover crew members. Roy McCauley replaced Larry Carter as crew chief.

To put Busch in a bigger hole, the Penske organization made some poor decisions that hurt the performance of both cars in 2006. During the offseason the #77 program was ended, reducing Penske to two full time teams. It also reduced the amount of information collected and limited the different options for testing. The decision didn't appear based on sponsorship either; Penske has an abundance of sponsors.

The immediate performance was most influenced however by the decision to run the Dodge Intrepid during the first part of the season. After Dodge ended this option after seven races, Penske had to play catch up on the unreliable Charger. The self-inflicted wounds cost Busch and Ryan Newman any realistic chance to make the Chase.

No matter how hard Busch tries, he remains unpopular with fans. Lost in the silly things he does is the fact that he is one of the elite drivers on the Cup circuit. Given a good car he is capable of winning at any type of track. Penske's short track program is always strong and Busch might be the top driver at Bristol. He has five career wins at the Tennessee short track. He also is very strong at Pocono. He finished 2nd at both races there in 2006 and won the July race in 2005. California, Talladega, Loudon and Phoenix are also places where Busch is on the shortlist of top drivers.

In his second year with Penske and McCauley, Busch should expect improved consistency, especially in the pits. If that happens he is a favorite to make the Chase, especially with two additional spots available. Busch always runs the risk of losing his temper at the wrong time. If Penske's equipment is still lacking, Busch won't have the luxury to turn a poor car into a wrecked car too often. The speedway program remains the largest unknown, but Busch is good enough at every other track to compensate. Two to three wins and a Chase berth is manageable.