Who has the best Engine Programs?

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team's engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dave Blaney

Dave Blaney Age: 44
0 wins, 1 top 5, 2 top 10's, 4 top 15's
Avg Start: 28.3 Avg finish 24.4
#22 Caterpillar Toyota Crew Chief: Kevin Hamlin

With seven full-time Toyota cars in 2007, who will be most successful? There is Brian Vickers, a young driver with potential. There is former Winston Cup Champ Dale Jarrett. What about established veterans Jeremy Mayfield and Michael Waltrip? Believe it or not, the most successful season just might come from Dave Blaney.

Blaney is the only Toyota driver inside the top 35 in owner points. Bill Davis Racing is also the only Toyota outfit with Cup experience. Neither Michael Waltrip Racing nor Red Bull have competed at the Cup level. Both will experience growing pains in their debuts. That leaves Blaney as the driver with the greatest chance to consistently run well for Toyota.

For the past three seasons BDR has fought legal issues with Dodge, while trying to remain competitive at the Cup level. In this context, Blaney had a pretty solid season. If there was an award for getting the most out of his equipment, Blaney would win. He ranked fifth in laps completed at 98.3%. His cars weren't always fast, but Blaney maximized his finishes. He scored a the car's first top five since the opening race of 2004. He also laid a foundation for improvement in 2007.

Most of the season Blaney survived races and avoided trouble. He only had two DNF's, but his equipment limited him to runing in the 20's and 30's. The first sign of progress was a three race stretch in July. He finished 17th (Chicago), 13th (Loudon) and 16th (Pocono). This was part of a run where he finished on the lead lap in 8 of 10 races. Things got even better in September. He ran exceptionally well at Richmond with a season high 108.7 driver rating and a fourth place finish. For an underfunded team, it was practically a victory. He followed up with a ninth place finish at Loudon and a 12th at Dover.

While moral victories are nice, Blaney finally broke through at the NASCAR level in October. He won a wild Busch race at Lowe's, holding off Matt Kenseth and displaying some serious car control. His first win in NASCAR's top three levels was overshadowed by Kevin Harvick clinching the Busch championship. It still capped an impressive fall for Blaney. It could make for an even better 2007.

For the first season since 2003, BDR gets manufacturer support. BDR is already the premiere Truck organization, backed by Toyota. Getting any support at the Cup level will elevate performance, but Toyota's funding could be enormous. Blaney also welcomes a new teammate for 2007. Michael Waltrip was technically a teammate last year, but he basically consumed cars, resources and owner points. Jeremy Mayfield will drive the #36 BDR car in 2007. Mayfield spent the fall testing cars for BDR. This will help deepen the data pool for both teams. Both drivers have tested the Car of Tomorrow, which is the great unknown for every team. Will BDR's success in the truck series translate to the boxier, heavier CofT?

Blaney will also race full-time in the Busch series for Braun racing in '06. It's his first full Busch season since 1999. While most Cup drivers have reduced their full-time Busch efforts, it makes sense for Toyota teams to get more track time in the new Camry. There will no doubt be wrinkles to iron out in the brand new car. Blaney certainly doesn't need the seat time that a rookie would, but racking up a few top fives or another win in the Busch series never hurts.

With his dirt track background it is not surprising Blaney's strength is tracks where car control is a necessity. Darlington, Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix are all places that Blaney can run well. His best average finish is at Homestead where he had a top ten in 2005. After bouncing around for the past four years from BDR, Jasper, RCR and back to BDR, 2007 grants Blaney some stability. He is finally in the same ride for more than one season. Blaney finished 26th in points in 2006. It is not crazy to think he could crack the top 20. Toyota has several higher profile drivers, but Blaney is the one people will talk about if Toyota has success in 2007.

NASCAR Driver Preview: AJ Allmendinger

AJ Allmendinger
Age: 25
Crew Chief: Rick Viers

Of the seven rookies scheduled to appear in 2007, the greatest unknown is AJ Allmendinger. Maybe unknown isn't the right word, how about greenest rookie in stock cars? Every rookie is a wildcard to some degree. Juan-Pablo Montoya comes from an open-wheel background with very little stock car experience. At least Montoya is with an established team that is inside the top 35. David Reutimann will drive for Toyota and will have no owner’s points. At least Reutimann has 107 combined starts among the three NASCAR series. Allmendinger begins with two strikes. He has little stock car experience and will drive for Team Red Bull, a team yet to run a NASCAR race. A brand new driver to stock cars hired by a brand new team. It will be a rough season all around. It is difficult to know exactly how the year will play out because there is not a lot known about Team Red Bull.

So what do we know about Allmendinger? He spent the last three years in the Champ Car World Series. After four second place finishes in 2005, he enjoyed a breakout year in 2006. He won five races, including three straight, and finished third in points. He was one of three Americans to race in the CCWS in 2006, and the only one with more than one start.

During his off weeks in 2006, Allmendinger began testing a truck for Bill Davis Racing. He drove in three Craftsman Truck races, and stoking an interest in stock car racing for Allmendinger. His NASCAR debut was at the New Hampshire truck race. He qualified 33rd and grinded out a 13th place finish. That was followed by a fifth at Talladega. For his first two races in a top stock car series, it was impressive. His final race of the year was at Atlanta. After qualifying on the outside front row, he crashed on the fifth lap. He also attempted to qualify for the Atlanta and Texas Cup events. Cup qualifying was rained out and he was too slow at Texas.

At this point Allmendinger’s stock car resume is three truck races and two failed Cup races. If you are keeping score, that’s 307 truck laps, 2 qualifying laps at Texas and 26 practice laps at Texas. No driver in recent memory has landed a full-time Cup with such little experience. By comparison Montoya raced in 7 races among ARCA, Busch and Cup.

Further, Allmendinger has little oval experience compared to an open wheel driver transitioning from the IRL. The only ovals he raced at in ChampCar were Milwaukee and Las Vegas. Vegas is the only track that has a Cup event. Drivers like Montoya and Sam Hornish are much more familiar with many of the Nextel Cup's oval tracks.

Allmendinger is only 25, and is certainly a top prospect in any racing series. This doesn't mean he won't succeed in NASCAR. It only points out the enormous hurdles he faces compared to other rookies and young drivers in the ranks.

In a whirlwind season, the two tracks that will lend comfort are Sonoma and Watkins Glen. Road racing obviously shouldn’t be a problem. Sonoma is too soon in the year to expect great success, Allmendinger will still be getting comfortable to the heavier, less precise stock cars. Watkins Glen should be circled on the schedule. By August, he should be ready to make a serious run at a top ten or top five.

So what do we know about Team Red Bull? Not as much as other teams. While Michael Waltrip Racing seems to have frequent releases and announcements, Red Bull tends to keep a lower profile. Aside from deep pockets, Team Red Bull does not assume any competitive advantages to help their 2007 campaign. No owners points or champion provisional, zero NASCAR races started which also means very few notes from 2006. Their key hires have come from top organizations like Evernham, Ford Racing and especially luring Doug Richert from Roush Racing.

Crew Chief Rick Viers will be the largest key to Allmendinger's progress. Viers worked last year for Bill Davis Racing, helping in the Truck Series as well as Bill Lester's two Cup races. He also was crew chief during Allmendinger's three Truck races. Job number one is finding a fast qualfying setup. Once they make some races the goals must be to get laps, avoid too many crashes and start compiling a good notebook. Finding a Busch ride for more seat time would help too.

Allmendinger is obviously talented and plenty of open wheel drivers have succeeded in Cup. Unfortunately, 2007 might be the most competitive season ever. Making the field every week will be challenging for the 10-15 teams outside the magical 35 window. The good news is that Red Bull and Toyota are prepared to struggle next year, and Allmendinger should get plenty of leniency. Once he does figure it out, Red Bull might reap the rewards for thinking outside the box.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Michael Waltrip

Michael Waltrip			Age: 43
#55 NAPA Toyota			Crew Chief: David Hyder
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
33	0	0	0	1
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points	Driver Rating
0	31.9	30.9	36th	42.3

For the first time since 1986 Michael Waltrip did not score a top ten finish. 1986 was also the last time
Waltrip did not start a Cup race. In fact, he missed three plus a fourth race where he purchased his entry. On the track 2006 was a disaster for Waltrip.

How bad was it? He had one finish (14th at Talladega) inside the top fifteen. He had a mere 5 lead lap finishes compared to 7 DNF's. It's never a good sign when you have more DNF's than lead lap finishes. Beyond his the DNF's he had 15 "bottom 10's". To ensure he made the first five races, he purchased owners points from Doug Bawel and the defunct #77 Penske team. This luxury was quickly squandered by poor finishes. By the ninth race, Waltrip was outside the top 35 for good. Things only swirled further down the drain from there. Waltrip did not qualify
for the Coca Cola 600, but purchased Derrick Cope’s ride to satisfy his sponsor, Napa. It’s unclear whether Napa
was satisfied with Waltrip’s 41st place finish at Charlotte. Waltrip also missed the second largest race, the Brickyard 400 plus Richmond and Homestead.

After several great runs in 2005 while showing some serious skill, 2006 seemed like a wasted year on track. After an 18th at the Daytona 500, the year took an immediate dive. Blown engines, faulty brakes and crashes explained some of the problems. Sometimes Waltrip made problems for himself. At the spring Bristol race, he misunderstood his spotter and plowed into two crashed cars, half a lap after the original wreck. Mechanical failures or plain bad luck is one thing; every driver endures both. Adding poor judgment to the problems really compounds matters. The one relatively bright spot was his Busch Series efforts. A second place at the fall Charlotte race highlighted 3 top tens in 21 starts.

Sure his on-track record was dreadful, but his off track activities were very successful. Toyota appointed him to be the flagship team for their 2007 entry to Cup. He secured enough sponsorship for three cars and hired Dale Jarrett and David Reutimann to drive. He also hired a lot of organizational talent: Ty Norris, Matt Borland, Larry Carter and David Hyder among others. Don’t let his goofy, sponsor-pitching personality fool you; he has a definite plan for his company. Sponsors obviously love him and that is a big part of any organization. When he announced he was leaving DEI for Bill Davis Racing, it was a puzzling move. Of course that was before he was granted the task of starting a new organization from scratch. While it essentially cost him his 2006 season, his long range plans remain on course.


Waltrip probably won’t see great improvement in 2007. Plate tracks will again be his strength. Even in an under-supported Charger, Waltrip had his strongest races at Daytona and Talladega. His experience in the draft is a huge asset, especially when the strength of his cars is unknown. Making the Daytona 500 shouldn’t be a problem and would get his team off to a solid start.

It might be surprising that based on average finish, Waltrip’s best track is Sonoma (avg finish 15.9, 7 top tens in 15 races). Aside from plate tracks, he has also been historically solid at Charlotte and Bristol. Waltrip has 675 career starts, fourth most among drivers with a 2007 ride. Waltrip must rely on his vast experience to regain his pre-2006 form.

Qualifying isn’t a great strength, although he did capture the pole at Pocono in 2005. It was his first pole since George H Bush was in office. His best effort last year was 19th and his average start was 31.9.

While Waltrip is capable of putting together strong runs at any track, he has never finished in the top ten in points. Even in his best years at DEI, Waltrip struggled with weekly consistency. He can’t afford to start the year erratically. David Hyder will be the crew chief in 2007. He worked with Ken Schrader for the last two years as crew chief first at BAM racing and last year at Wood Brothers. Creating immediate chemistry between the two will be vital for the season.

Overall, the Toyota cars will struggle initially. Many people have predicted dominance from Toyota, but that will not be in 2007. The biggest challenge will be the intermediate tracks. These tracks are the most aerodynamically intense and require the most R&D help. Perhaps the one program where MWR and Toyota are on an even playing is the Car of Tomorrow. Other established teams already have an inventory of 2006 cars and the associated technology, but everyone is starting at the ground floor with the new CoT.

Returning to the top 35 is definitely attainable. He is capable of collecting a few top tens, although improving on his 2 top 15 finishes is a more immediate goal. Like the other Toyota teams, simply making races to lay the groundwork for future seasons is priority one. After having his feet in two camps last year, Waltrip can finally focus all of his efforts in one place in 2007. That doesn’t mean he will be less busy, but probably more focused in one place.

Nascar Driver Preview: Jeremy Mayfield

Jeremy Mayfield			Age: 37
#36 OTC 360 Toyota			Crew Chief: Tommy Baldwin
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
22	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	24.3	28.6	39th	53.6
Running at Finish	Lead Lap Finish	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
19	9	15	3	$2,546,999

At least Mayfield has an appropriate sponsor for 2007. OTC 360 can help relieve the heartburn that was his ’06 season. Without dwelling too much on the tabloid-esque drama, here’s a quick summary. Prior to 2006, Ray Evernham moved Mayfield’s team director Kenny Francis to Kasey Kahne’s team. Mayfield struggled so badly that he fell out of the top 35 in owner’s points. After the Brickyard in August he was replaced by Bill Elliott, which led to Mayfield filing a lawsuit against Evernham. He was eventually replaced by Elliott Sadler. Meanwhile Mayfield signed with Bill Davis Racing to drive a new second car in 2007. There were other, less important details that came out on both sides of the Mayfield-Evernham squabble that didn’t relate to his on-track performance. They only made things ugly for both parties and left Mayfield without a ride for the rest of the season.

Whatever story you believe, you can’t deny Mayfield’s ugly results in 2006. He was one of seven drivers to qualify for the Chase in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he struggled to stay in the top 35 in owner’s points.

In 2005 he made the Chase on the strength of finishing races on the lead lap. If he wasn’t racking up top fives, at least he was consistently staying out of trouble. There was a lot of talk about how the Dodge teams struggled with the new Charger, so the fact that Mayfield rarely ran up front was excused.

This past year, it was more obvious that something with Mayfield’s driving style didn’t work with what Evernham’s program. The team figured out some key elements with the Charger. Kasey Kahne won three of the first 12 races. Scott Riggs had three top tens and one pole in the same span. Riggs also had several other races where he ran in the top ten the majority of the race. Meanwhile Mayfield struggled from the start.

It wasn’t even a case of bad luck or getting caught up in other’s wrecks. He had two DNF’s all year. It was more a case of Mayfield flat out struggling. He only had four top twenty finishes all year and zero top tens. Mayfield also had a 53.6 driver rating for the season, placing him with the back markers and field fillers.

The relative high point was a two race stretch in the spring. He qualified 2^nd at both Charlotte and Dover before finishing 15th and 18th respectively. Mayfield had his best race at Dover. He led 14 laps and ran in the top 20 all day. It was also his highest driver rating, 82.5. For context, an 82.5 is about a 15th place car. Unfortunately, he would not have another finish better than 22nd.

It’s hard to believe Mayfield’s claims that Evernham didn’t provide enough support for the 19 car. Mayfield’s entire fleet of top 15 caliber cars moved with Francis to Kahne’s team. Meanwhile Mayfield’s team built all new cars. Whatever technological advances Evernham discovered during the off-season would have been applied to the new batch of cars. Further, Sadler jumped in and finished tenth in his first race.

Moving forward, Mayfield is certainly better than his 2006 season. He is also not an elite driver. He is sandwiched somewhere in the middle. Given the right equipment he can compete for the occasional win but is not going to lead a lot of laps or threaten for a top ten every week.

For 2007, it turns out falling out of the top 35 was good practice for Mayfield. Qualifying will be the biggest hurdle for all the Toyota teams initially. Making the first five races for Mayfield is paramount. If he doesn’t, his season could slide very quickly.

Former Evernham crew chief Tommy Baldwin will call the shots for Mayfield this year. Ironically Baldwin began 2006 as Sadler’s crew chief at RYR before being released to join Bill Davis Racing. Before Mayfield signed, Baldwin stepped in as Michael Waltrip’s crew chief to finish the year.

Mayfield’s best tracks on tour are Dover, Darlington and Pocono. He has two wins, four top 5’s and nine top 10’s at the triangular Pocono.

While 2007 might be a disjointed year for Mayfield, the long term future is solid for BDR and Toyota. Bill Davis is a powerhouse in the truck series and with Toyota’s support will now turn its focus to Cup. For the first time in four years Davis will have manufacturer support for his Cup teams. Davis will have two fully sponsored Cup cars for the first time since 2003.

When setting goals for Mayfield and the #36 car, it’s important to remember that this is a brand new team with a brand new manufacturer. To qualify for at least 90% of the races (32+), get inside the top 35 in points, and capture one or two top tens. If all of these things happen it sets a nice foundation for 2008. If Mayfield struggles to qualify or can’t run well enough to stay inside the top 35, things could get frustrating. Mayfield can’t get caught up in short term success in ’07, when the team won’t be ready to really compete until 2008.