Break Out the Antacid

For a lot of teams Speedweeks this year is not very fun. Some very high profile, not to mention well-sponsored teams are not going make the Daytona 500. After single car qualifying, there are now 39 drivers locked in for next Sunday: the top 35 in owner points, Boris Said, Sterling Marlin and Johnny Sauter based on speed, plus Dale Jarrett's champion's provisional. Quick math shows there's only four spots left for the Daytona 500. Among the 22 teams on the bubble, nine have plans to run the entire schedule. Most have sponsorship, including prominent companies like NAPA, Dominos, Menards, and Red Bulll. At least five are leaving on Thursday. That means several teams will spend the next three days worrying and working on their cars to find more speed. It also means working on their answer to sponsors for why they missed NASCAR's highest profile race.

Is it possible that Thursday's Duel 150's could have more intrigue than Sunday's race? That's a stretch, but for a lot of teams it will set a tone for the season. Miss a race and it makes it much harder to enter the top 35 in points. Within the greater storyline to make the race, there are several smaller plots. Among the cars competing for the transfer spots, there are three formerDaytona 500 winners. Of the eight Toyota entries, only Jarrett and Dave Blaney have guaranteed spots. Two are certain to miss the race, but based on qualifying speeds, it will be more. Neither Toyota driver in the BudShooutout (Brian Vickers , Jarrett) did anything to show they are better in the draft than qualifying. Another problem is that one of the fastest Toyota's was Mike Skinner, a part-time entry. If Skinner makes the race, but teammate JeremyMayfield doesn't, how will Bill Davis handle that?

The two highest finishing drivers in each heat will make the race, with a few exceptions. If any of the three top qualifiers (Said, Sauter or Marlin) finish in the first two transfer spots, the next fastest qualifier makes the race, which is Jeremy Mayfield, then David Reutimann . The same would happen with the past Champion provisional. If Jarrett captures on the the transfer spots, then the provisional would fall to Bill Elliott.

Handicapping the field, Jeremy Mayfield is in good shape in Heat 1. Ward Burton and Bill Elliott have both won Daytona 500's, but can't overcome the limits of their cars. AJ Allmendinger has one plate race in the Truck Series and Team Red Bull is yet to qualify for a Cup race. It's a real long shot for Allmendinger. It is hard enough for a rookie to get drafting help, let alone a rookie with almost no stock car experience. Michael Waltrip's car was impounded after qualifying. Apparently it's not an infraction, but it does cost the team time that they can't work on the car.Waltrip is a good plate racer who is capable of hooking up with the right drafting partners. It's a big help to have his teammate Jarrett in his heat.

In heat 2, David Reutimann is a rookie, but has raced in 6 plate races in the Truck and Busch series. He was one of the fastest Toyotas and has the best chance of the Toyotas to make the field. DEI traditionally has stronger cars in race trim which should allow Paul Menard to compete better than his qualifying time suggests. JoeNemechek will hope for the same thing, and Ginn racing does have Hendrick power to boos that effort. Brian Vickers is a good plate racer but the Toyotas haven't been very strong so far. Unless he learned something on Saturday night, his chances do not look very good. The X factor as far as full-time teams are concerned is Mike Skinner. He has made two of the last threeDaytona 500's as a part time driver and was one of the quicker cars on Sunday.

All the preparation, speed and drafting partners still might not be enough. Scott Riggs had a mechanical issue during qualifying and then a problem in the pits cost him his chance in the 500. Menard suffered a flat tire in his heat last year. The unknown only adds more pressure and anxiety for the drivers leading up to Thursday afternoon. Obviously missing the first race is not a fatal blow, look at Riggs for exhibit A. The problem is there will be 12 full-time teams next week at California all trying to make the race all over again.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart Age: 35
5 wins, 15 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, 24 top 15’s
Avg Start: 16.7 Avg Finish: 13.8
Points Standing: 11^th Driver Rating: 97.0
#20 Home Depot Chevy Crew Chief: Greg Zipadelli

For Tony Stewart, no season is uneventful, quiet or simple. By those criteria, it was a pretty normal season for Smoke. He won five races, stirred up controversy, fractured his shoulder blade, and missed the Chase.

Stewart’s season began in typical fashion with both success and controversy. A week after warning drivers of excessive bump drafting, it was Stewart getting penalized for ramming into Matt Kenseth at the Daytona 500. Despite damage, Stewart still finished 5^th. The following week he led 28 laps before losing an engine late. He led laps in the first nine races, but only one win at Martinsville for his efforts. It was still a solid start and many predicted he would cruise into the Chase and vie for a third title.

A funny thing happened on the way to engraving his trophy. Stewart’s summer was inconsistent and he failed to make the Chase. Stewart’s regular season was very similar to Greg Biffle’s, the driver who finished second to Stewart in 2005. Both ran very well in the majority of races, but often finished much lower than deserved. Cracks began showing in the spring at Charlotte. After two hard crashes in both the Busch and Cup races, Stewart fractured his shoulder blade. This caused great discomfort the following week at Dover. He started the race, but was replaced by Ricky Rudd during the first caution. Rudd finished 25^th.

One of the more entertaining images during the season was Stewart pounding dents out of his car after an early crash at Michigan. It was only three weeks after he injured his shoulder. He defended his trophy at the summer Daytona race, his second win of the season, but then things fell apart in July.

He was in the top five at Chicago before running out of fuel to finish 32^nd. The following week at Loudon he was leading the race and looked to have a stout car. Then he scuffled with Ryan Newman when Newman tried to get a lap back from Stewart. Both cars crashed and it was Stewart’s second straight finish in the 30’s. The following week at Pocono he again got in a dust-up, this time spinning Clint Bowyer. The crash also collected Carl Edwards, who retaliated by spinning Stewart entering the pits. Stewart was penalized but did recover to finish 7^th, but it ended a tumultuous month.

Suddenly he went from a lock for the Chase to sitting on the bubble. The final blow came at Richmond where he crashed his primary car in practice. He struggled during the race, finished 18^thth in 2005 but 6 in 2006. and barely missed the Chase. There were plenty of missed chances during the first 26 races. Stewart had two finishes worse than 30

Reduced to driving for wins, Stewart was free to experiment a little during the Chase. He won at Kansas by gambling on fuel. Then the team found a fast setup for both Atlanta and its cousin track Texas, where he won both races. Stewart had five top fives during the Chase including wins 3,4 and 5.

Aside from the disappointment of missing the Chase, Stewart’s season was impressive. He scored 5 wins for the second straight season, led the most laps, was third in top fives, second in earnings and fifth in driver rating. After a nearly flawless 2005, his 2006 effort was a pretty decent encore.

Stewart will begin 2007 like he did in 2006, a favorite to win the Cup and considered one of the best drivers in the world. The #20 team has every ingredient necessary for success. He can win anywhere; in fact there are only four current tracks where he hasn’t won. Joe Gibbs is one of the top three or four organizations in Cup and Greg Zipadelli is the longest tenured crew chief. It all points to one of the elite teams in NASCAR.

One of the tracks Stewart hasn’t won at is Talladega, but it might be one of his best. He has six second place finishes, 8 top fives and an average finish of 11.9. A win at Talladega or in the Daytona 500 would definitely add another highlight to his impressive resume.

No driver has repeated since Jeff Gordon nearly ten years ago and for good reason. There are more requirements and commitments for the current champion than other drivers. This can drain a driver and will ultimately hurt performance at some level. Without this burden Stewart could have another stellar and consistent season.

Maybe the only question mark for Stewart is the Car of Tomorrow. Gibbs and Stewart should cope well with the brand new car, but it is such an unknown that there is a chance to slip. Stewart can certainly drive any type of car on any type of track, so the new body type won’t be a problem granted Gibbs gives him adjustable cars. The only other question mark is his emotions, which can cost him at times.

Stewart will make the Chase this year. Despite last year’s struggles he still almost made the playoff field. With 12 spots, plus a few more points for each win, Stewart should coast into the Chase. Once he gets in he is an instant favorite to win it all.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Casey Mears

Casey Mears Age: 28
0 wins, 2 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 12 top 15’s
Avg Start: 22.9 Avg finish: 18.6
Points Standing: 14th Driver Rating: 70.8
#25 National Guard Chevy Crew Chief: Lance McGrew

A driver upgrading from the #42 Ganassi team to a top multi-car team. It’s a familiar story. After four seasons with Ganassi, Casey Mears is moving to Hendrick Motorsports for 2007. The Jamie McMurray saga last year could also be a fair indicator for what will happen with Mears.

He was the 20th ranked driver according the loop data, but 14th in the points standings. This disparity can lead to different conclusions. One is that Ganassi’s equipment is not very good and that Mears maximized his finishes by staying out of trouble. Other stats support his argument. Mears only led 3 laps total, and all were at restrictor plate tracks. This ranks him 42nd among all drivers. Every driver with at least 22 starts had more laps led than Mears. For reference Mears led 104 and 145 laps in the past two seasons. Mears only had 2 DNF’s, further supporting the fact that while he didn’t run great, he took advantage of staying on the track. Obviously the point system rewards avoiding bad finishes. It’s not fully known how well the driver ratings portray success (primarily because there isn’t a published formula). It still appears that Mears outperformed his equipment. Entering next year with a new team poses an interesting question. Was it equipment that was holding back Mears or is he simply a mediocre driver? 2007 should help answer that question.

Last season ended with Mears on the verge of claiming his first NASCAR win at any level. Many predicted Mears would finally break through in 2006. Three races in, things looked true. After a 2nd place at Daytona, Mears finished 7th and 9th at California and Las Vegas respectively. Things dried up after that. He didn’t score another until race 15 at Michigan. He finished with only 2 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. He did finally get his first NASCAR win, but it came at Chicago in the Busch series.

Although Mears 2006 season didn’t improve on 2005, there were some highlights. He scored a career best 2nd at the Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 7th in the July race. If he wasn’t consistently finishing in the top ten, at least he was finishing races and avoiding trouble. Mears managed to finish in the top 25 in 23 of the first 26 races. It’s not the type of finishes to make the Chase, but can go a long way to a top 15 points finish. With nothing to lose during the Chase, Mears gambled on fuel to finish 2nd at Kansas. He also finished sixth at Martinsville, his first short track top ten.

Now Mears moves to Hendrick Motorsports a team he is familiar with. He is close friends with Jimmie Johnson and was almost hired by Hendrick in 2003 to drive the #5 Busch car. He is certain to get better equipment compared to Ganassi.

Aside from a better ride, it is hard to blame Mears for switching teams. During the 2005 season, Ganassi originally announced plans for four teams with Mears pushed to the new team in favor of two rookies getting established rides. After McMurray’s release was worked out, Mears wound up in the #42 car. Mears’ contract status was also unknown for much of the 2005 season suggesting a tenuous relationship with Ganassi. A move to another team with close personal and professional ties, not to mention better equipment, makes perfect sense for Mears.

Mears gets his third crew chief in as many years. Lance McGrew worked with Brian Vickers for the past two seasons, winning one race. Ironically Mears is a similar storyline to Vickers: A young driver with potential that hasn’t quite put it all together weekly.

Mears is still far from a well-rounded driver. His strength is at 1.5 mile tracks like Las Vegas and Texas, where he has room to run wide open and pass people. His average finish at Vegas is 9.5 with three top 10’s in four races. He averages a 10.5 finish at Texas, including 2 top 5’s. He also is improving at restrictor plate tracks and considering the dominance of Hendrick, this should be a good program for Mears in 2007. The trouble starts when the circuit moves to tighter, challenging tracks like Bristol, Phoenix, Richmond and Darlington. His average finish at the four tracks is 28.7.

On paper switching teams makes sense for Mears. As McMurray proved in 2006, it is not that easy. It is more complex than a driver getting improved equipment. There is team chemistry, differing driving styles and numerous factors that often go unseen to the general public. The only way to have an idea is to look at the results next year and draw conclusions. Mears is good enough to improve on his eight top tens, but it could take some transition time. Maintaining his points standing would be an accomplishment, but realistically he is in for a year of regression.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Clint Bowyer

Clint Bowyer Age: 26
0 wins, 4 top 5's, 11 top 10's, 16 top 15's
Avg start: 20.3 Avg finish 19.7
Points Standing: 17th Driver Rating: 74.9
#07 Jack Daniels Chevy Crew Chief: Gil Martin

Bowyer wins the mythical award for Most Surprising Rookie. Sure Denny Hamlin won races and made the Chase, but nothing was expected out of Bowyer. He stayed out of trouble most of the year and steadily improved his finishes. Entering 2007 he is suddenly a legitmate Chase candidate. It is a pretty sharp ascent for Bowyer, who had one Cup race prior to 2006.

Bowyer benefitted from excellent timing. He entered the #07 ride at a time when RCR returned to elite status at the Cup level. The three Childress cars combined for 1 win and only six top fives in 2005. After drastic improvements in every department, RCR cars scored 6 wins and 26 top five finishes in 2006. Bowyer made the most of the tools at his disposal. He began the season with a top ten at Daytona, followed by two top fifteen finishes at California and Las Vegas. His first big breakthrough came at Phoenix. He led 21 laps before finishing 5th. Teammate Kevin Harvick won the race and Jeff Burton finished ninth. It was the first sign that RCR's short track and 1 mile speedway program was one of the best. This strong program was reinforced by Bowyer's 10th at Richmond and later led 23 laps at Loudon before a disappointing 27th result.

RCR's progress spilled over to the intermediate tracks where Bowyer was most comfortable. He scored top five finishes at Indy, California and Texas. He also led 43 laps at his home track Kansas speedway. He hit the wall while leading and spent the rest of the day regaining the lost ground finishing 9th. Bowyer is definitely a threat to win a speedway race in 2007.

The season was not always smooth or easy. Had a good run at Pocono but was spun out by Tony Stewart. A furious Bowyer waited for Stewart in the pits, but nothing else happened. Stewart claimed the rookie was holding him up, so he moved him. Stewart was penalized a lap, but wound up finishing 7th. Bowyer wound up 41st. When he wasn't getting "taught" lessons by veterans, Bowyer did a nice job of earning respect. He scored top tens at both Daytona races, a place where rookies don't always get support in the draft. He led laps at 8 races and ran in the top ten at several others. The more time spent at the front of the pack, the sooner veterans get accustomed to rookies.

Aside from great equipment, RCR had several factors in place to help Bowyer's transition to Cup. His crew chief Gil Martin moved with Bowyer from the Busch series. Martin had been a Cup crew chief for RCR prior to his role with Bowyer. For a rookie driver, this is a big plus to have an experienced crew chief making the right adjustments and knowing what works. The other big help was Bowyer's two veteran teammates. Harvick and Burton both have great insight and experience in the series. Having a veteran sounding board is a big part of figuring out how to drive at NASCAR's highest level.

To get Bowyer additional seat time, RCR also ran a full Busch sechedule plus select truck races. He won the fall race at Dover. If not for Harvick, Bowyer certainly could have won more Busch races. He did score 12 top fives and 17 top tens to finish 3rd in points. He also won the fall truck raceat Texas after sitting on the pole. The only thing missing now is a Cup win to add to his resume.

So what will happen to the #07 in '07? The biggest project is the Car of Tomorrow. RCR is spending a lot of time and money to maintain their edge, and the CofT is no exception. This could propel all three RCR cars even further beyond the competition. Some team is going to have a large advantage on the CofT tracks, and it's very possible RCR becomes that team.The intermediate program should be strong again, meaning Bowyer is a good candidate to pick up a win at one of the tracks. The most likely places are California, Texas or Kansas. He is also very solid at Dover. Bowyer can afford improvement at road courses.For some reason Michigan has also been a weak spot for Bowyer. He has never scored a top ten in Cup or Busch.

The biggest thing for Bowyer is improving his consistency. He has strong equipment and a good crew chief in Martin. If Boywer can turn some of the top fifteens into top tens, he can definitely improve his 18th place standing. A top ten spot is a big jump. Winning a race is the first hurdle. Real hardware is surely preferred to winning mythical Most Surprising awards.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Martin Truex Jr

Martin Truex Jr Age: 26
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 5 top 10's, 11 top 15's
Avg start: 21.2 Avg finish: 20.8
Points standing: 19 Driver Rating: 71.3
#1 Bass Pro Shops Chevy Crew Chief: Kevin Manion

A year ago Martin Truex Jr was the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Some writers went as far as predicting he'd make the Chase. After two straight Busch championships, the predictions made sense. After running seven Cup races in 2005, Truex was more than ready for full time Cup action. A funny thing happened, Truex had a typical rookie season filled with mistakes, run-ins with veterans, and crashes mixed in with some good runs.

Truex spent the first half of the season running between 15^th and 20^th. He had one top ten in the first 18 races. He had several nice runs, some with deserving finishes (8^th at Texas) and some not (finished 22^nd at Phoenix after running out of fuel). One of his toughest days came at the spring Bristol race. Fighting to get a lap back, he was spun by Jeff Gordon. After some minor repairs, he returned to the track in search of Gordon. After trading paint with Gordon, Tony Stewart dumpedTruex for holding up the lead-lap cars. His day was done and a lesson was painfully learned.

One of the highlights of his season came in the Busch series. In April he won the Busch race at Talladega in a Dale Earnhardt Sr. paint scheme. It was also his third straight Busch win at Talladega. Unfortunately he was caught in an early crash in the Cup race, proving again that momentum doesn't really exist race to race. The following week he lost an engine, his thirdDNF in five races.

Aside from bad luck and crashes, one of the biggest challenges for the #1 team was a lack of experience. Crew Chief Kevin "Bono" Manion was with Truex for the last two years in Busch, but had never been a crew chief at the Cup level. It took the team almost the entire first half of the season to accumulate enough notes to figure out fast setups.DEI has one of the top Busch programs, but is middle of the pack at the Cup level. This also makes for a tougher transition when the equipment is not elite. While they waited for the cars to get more speed,Truex still managed to finish races. From Darlington to the second California race, Truex completed 99% of the laps.

The second half of was a big improvement. The overall results didn't show immediately, but Truex and Manion started figuring out some tracks the second time around. The speed finally improved during the Chase. Truex scored a sixth at Dover, an 11th at Kansas and a 5th at Talladega. He ran inside the top 10 the whole day at Atlanta before a crash with 19 laps to go. The following week Truex was running fifth with two laps to go when Scott Riggs crashed and Truex was caught in it. He wound up 11th. Truex's finest race was the finale at Homestead. He finished second, led 27 laps and had a driver rating of 111.4.

The final ten races showed what everyone expected from Truex. With his late season success, he finished 19th in the standings. Overall it was a solid debut while also showing a glimpse of what Truex can do with good cars. Good cars will be the key in 2007. Truex and Manion have good chemistry and now have experience to build on when adjusting the car. It's up to DEI to continue to produce, and improve their engines and chassis. Paul Menard will drive a third full time car. That could pull personnel and resources away from the #1 team. Menard will have to qualify for at least the first five races, meaning extra attention will be given to his cars and engines. There is also the issue ofDEI's foggy management picture.

One of Truex's strengths is taking care of equipment. Although he had 5 DNF's, he was second among rookies with 21 lead lap finishes. One thing Truex must control is his emotions. The Bristol incident illustrated how aggressive Truex can get. He had a similar run-in at a Richmond Busch race in 2005. Every driver has days of struggle and frustration, but losing control is an easy way to turn a 21st finish into a 41st.

DEI's strength in 2006 was their intermediate program, although Truex is capable of running well at almost any track. He is strong at plate tracks and should get more help this season in the draft. He is also strong at Dover, where he won twice in the Busch series and scored a 6th in Cup. He won the Mexico City Busch road race in 2005, and has also run well at short tracks like Bristol and Richmond. Although his driving style is similar to teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr, he is a superior qualifier. A pole win is a real possibility next season.

As long as Truex gets the proper support he has the talent to run up front. Making the Chase is a long shot this season, but Truex should improve his finishes in year 2. A top 15 points finish along with 5 top fives and 10-15 top tens is the likely forecast forTruex. A win is not likely, but not out of the question either. Maybe the best news is that expectations for Truex are returning to previous heights.

Who has the best Engine Programs?

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team's engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Joe Nemechek

Joe Nemechek Age: 43
0 wins, 0 top 5's 2 top tens 4 top 15's
Avg start: 18.0 Avg Finish 24.4
#13 Ginn Chevy Crew Chief: Peter Sospenzo

2006 was a tough season for "Front Row" Joe Nemechek. During the past six seasons, Nemecheck was often a threat to win a race despite never driving a top-flight ride. From 1999-2005, Nemechek won four races, seven poles and scored 15 top fives. Even in winless years, he had chances at wins. He led races late in '05 before suffering heartbreak from a sour engine at California and a flat tire.at Lowe's. 2006 marked the first year that he never seriously contended for a win. It also began a period of transition for Nemechek that continues into 2007.

Nemecheck's season was filled with crashes, especially early in the season. He only had 3 DNF's, but 16 total crashes made for a lot of hollow laps. He finished worse than 25th in six of the first ten races. He was never able to gain traction and make a charge in the points. After finishing 16th in points in 2005, Nemecheck slipped to 27th last year. He managed a meager 2 top ten finishes and both came late in the season. It was a down year overall for MB/2. Sterling Marlin finished 34th and struggled all season in his first year with the team.

The largest change in 2006 was Bobby Ginn purchasing MB/2 motorsports. Ginn purchased the team in August and immediately invested in additional resources for the team. It was after this change that Nemechek began running better. Finished the year with seven straight top 20 finishes including two top tens at Lowe's and Atlanta. If the results declined, Nemechek still showed his qualifying prowess in 2006. He had nine top ten starts and averaged an 18.0 starting position. This strength is a necessity in 2007 as the changes continue for Nemechek.

Last fall Mark Martin announced plans to join Ginn for 2007. The move brings enormous credibility to Ginn, but it is at Nemechek's expense. Matin will be in the US Army #01 with crew chief Ryan Pemberton. This slides Nemechek to a brand new team with a new sponsor, new number, new crew and most significantly no owner's points. That means competing with 12-15 teams for seven available starting spots, including teammate Marlin. Nemechek's a great qualifier(career avg start: 18.4, 9 poles), but there is still no safety net or guarantee. Even the slightest bobble in qualifying can cost enough time to miss the field. There is another problem with starting outside the top 35. Cars go through inspection based on their point ranking. The longer a car has to wait, the less practice time is available. Less practice time for Jimmie Johnson or Matt Kenseth is not vital. Teams looking for the best qualifying setup however, need all the possible track time especially at races when there is only one pre-qualifying practice session.

Finding enough qualifying speed will fall on new crew chief Peter Sospenzo. Sospenzo comes from Hendrick Motorsports. He was Nemechek's crew chief in 2003 and also worked with Brian Vickers and Terry Labonte in the past few years. Nemechek won at Richmond with Sospenzo as crew chief in 2003, so at least it's not a completely blank slate. Another asset for qualifying is the team's engines they lease from Hendrick.
Not only is Nemechek switching teams, but he is also switching sponsors, away from US Army. Nemechek and his family, especially his mother, took this sponsor relationship very seriously. Nemechek even visited troops at Guantanamo Bay this past year. A primary sponsor hasn't been announced, but Ginn Resorts is always a possiblity.

Once Nemechek makes the show, he is very capable beyond two laps. He has Cup 4 wins since 1999. Of the 2007 full-time drivers, only 15 have more than Nemechek.He has always ran well in the speedway and restrictor plate races. Eleven of his 18 top 5's have come on intermediate speedway tracks. He also has a win and three top 5's at Loudon. Short tracks are the wildcard, especially Bristol and Martinsville.

Bobby Ginn is intent on improving the organization. He has already purchased new R&D equipment, expanded to three teams and signed a high profile driver. It might take a rough season in 2007 to realize some of the improvements. With two cars outside the top 35, qualifying is priority one. The addition of Martin should also help solving some of the problems with the cars. Nemecheck is definitely an accomplished driver that is capable of not only winning a race, but finishing inside the top 20 in points. If he can steer clear of crashes and start the season well, a top 25 points finish is possible. Realistically it will be a fight to stay inside the top 35 this year.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Jeff Green

Jeff Green Age: 44
0 wins, 0 top 5’s, 2 top 10’s, 7 top 15’s
Avg Start: 25.4 Avg Finish 24.4
Points: 28 Driver Rating:59.3
#66 Best Buy Chevy Crew Chief: Harold Holly

Jeff Green is a definite candidate for most anonymous driver in the Nextel Cup. The only time he is caught on camera is during crashes or incidents with other drivers. Aside from getting parked by NASCAR at Richmond, name a time when Green was mentioned during a race. There was the occasional crash, or a few instances when he ran inside the top. Primarily, though, Green ran in the 20's, kept to himself and finished races. In his first year with Haas/CNC Racing, he had his best season since 2002. He had two top tens and finished 28th in the standings. The numbers don't look great, but Green's team improved a lot during the home stretch.

After his move from Petty Enterprises, the season began solidly for Green and his new team. Aside from an early crash at Daytona, he ran competitively. He had six top 20 finishes in the first 10 races sat 21st in the points. He had a very good race during the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte. He led 16 laps and had a 96.3 driver rating. He and teammate Johnny Sauter both ran up front in the first half of the race. Green wound up 12th, his best finish to date.

Unfortunately his summer was not as solid. He finished worse than 25th in eight of the next nine races. His plummeted to 28th and still had zero top ten finishes. By the time the series reached the fall Richmond race, Green was 27th in points and probably more than a little frustrated.

Early in the race Green was hit by Johnson and spun. Later, Johnson was involved in another crash that didn't involve Green. While Johnson attempted to get the car back in line, Green ran into the #48 car. NASCAR quickly ended Green's night, pulling him from the race. In a season filled with spins and intentional bumps, Green was the only driver to receive this harsh penalty.

Green's temper has cost him before. Last year he had skirmishes with Michael Waltrip at Martinsville and Darlington where they took turns hitting the other. Green can't afford to let his emotions ruin any finishes next year. The competition has increased and there is no time to settle personal agendas on track. He also had a crash with Tony Raines at Phoenix. Afterwards he appeared to stare down Raines, but it never led to anything more, probably because Green’s car was on a truck by then. Raines later took responsibility for the wreck.

The Chase did provide improvement for Green and the #66 car. He scored a season-best 7th at Talladega, followed by another strong run at Charlotte (16th). Two weeks later Haas made a crew chief switch. Bootie Barker moved to the Busch series and Harold Holly joined the cup team. Green and Holly previously won six races and the Busch title in 2000. They also set a record with 25 top five finishes that year (As amazing as Kevin Harvick was in 2006, he only had 23 top fives.). Holly's first Cup race was at Martinsville in October. Green finished 8th and had his highest rated race of the season (98.7). Aside from the crash at Phoenix, Green finished the year strongly. He averaged an 18th place finish in the final seven races.

The Green/Holly combination worked in a limited time. This allows for hope in 2007. Haas is running a second car in 2007 for Johnny Sauter. In the long run expansion is the only way the team can survive at the Cup level. It’s a more efficient use for personnel, beacuse two teams can compile and trade more information. More sponsors also creates a larger operating budget. In the short run, however, it could cost Green in 2007. As the organization gets Sauter’s team up to speed, there is the risk of neglecting the established #66 team. Because Sauter's team must qualify for at least the first five races, he will require stronger engines and more attention to qualifying. Until both teams are up and running, the organization risks overextending themselves.

Another asset for Green is that Haas uses Hendrick engines. This helps greatly for qualifying and especially on plate tracks. Talladega is one of Green's best tracks, along with Martinsville. He also has done well at the two road courses in the past. Green is not going to make the Chase or threaten for wins. That doesn't discount the fact that he is a capable driver that will keep the car inside the top 35 in points and pull off the occasional top 10. With increased competition next year, a driver that can secure one of the guaranteed starting spots is definitely valuable. Over the past three years, Haas finished 27th, 28th, 28th in owner’s points. The last three years Green finished 30th, 29th, 28th. It's a pretty safe bet to pick Green in this neighborhood again.

NASCAR Driver Preview: JJ Yeley

JJ Yeley Age 30
0 wins, 0 top 5’s, 3 top 10’s, 9 top 15’s
Avg start 21.2, avg finish 25.0
Points Rank: 29th Driver Rating: 66.5
#18 Interstate Batteries Chevy Crew Chief: Steve Addington

Why can’t you be more like your brothers? That must be how JJ Yeley feels when compared to his teammates. Yeley’s plight is similar to a younger sibling with two older brothers: a high school quarterback and a straight A student. Sure he struggled in his rookie year, but look who he is compared to. Denny Hamlin won two races and made the Chase in his rookie year. Tony Stewart has two Championships and won 5 races for the second straight year.

In other words, Yeley had an average rookie season, but is teammates with arguably the best driver in NASCAR, and the driver with one of the best rookie seasons ever. There is nothing wrong with being a normal rookie. Positives (three top 10's, nine top 15's) laced with negatives (7 DNF's) summarizes Yeley's season nicely. A further look shows Yeley’s point standing was 29th, but his composite driver rating was 25th. Like most drivers with ratings that outperform their points, the reason was wrecks. He had 17 total crashes, good for 7 DNF's and 16 sub-30 finishes. In a short time he has already acquired a reputation for wadding sheetmetal.

All rookies will find trouble with one or more veterans during a long year. For most of the season Yeley avoided this trouble. Unfortunately he made a rookie mistake at the worst possible time. During the October race at Charlotte, Yeley collided with Chase contender and popular veteran Mark Martin. The scary crash cost Martin a shot at his first title. Yeley took some heat over the incident, especially since it was his third straight DNF from a wreck. Despite all the frustrations and bad finishes, he still wasn't as bad as Jason Leffler.

Joking aside, Yeley has serious talent and a resume to match. His open wheel background is similar to Stewart’s. They are the only two drivers to win the USAC Triple Crown. Yeley also set a USAC record with 24 wins during the 2003 season, breaking AJ Foyt's record. Yeley obviously has talent and was personally recommended to Gibbs by Stewart.

There were several examples of Yeley's talent in 2006. He started 4th at California, ran in the top ten the entire day finishing 8th. It was also his highest rated race with a 91.9. In July he finished 10th, 12th and 11th in a three race span at Chicago, Loudon and Pocono respectively. Based on the season driver ratings, Yeley's average running position was 22nd. This was better than Reed Sorenson and right behind Martin Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer. He also finished fifth in the Busch series standings with nine top 5's and 22 top 10's.

Frequent crashes can make for a long season, but they aren't a barometer for a driver's career. Numerous young drivers have dealt with the same thing and grew out of it once experience caught up with talent. Kasey Kahne is the most recent example. Kahne has a similar sprint car background.

Yeley's biggest tool for improvement is seat time. For the second straight season, Yeley will run both full Cup and Busch schedules. This year he will drive in Busch in James Finch's #1 car. Any seat time is valuable for Yeley, but it could be beneficial in another way. Finch is not a top Busch team and it will require Yeley's skill and more importantly patience to succeed.

If you want an idea how Yeley might do, compare his rookie season to Brian Vickers'. Vickers showed speed at times, but also frequently crashed his top-flight equipment. He had four top tens compared to Yeley's three. Vickers settled down in his second year, had some good runs and showed overall improvement. For Yeley to get 7-9 top tens plus 1 or 2 top 5 finishes is reasonable.

Yeley is a very good qualifier. He had nine top ten starts in addition to three Busch poles. It wouldn't be surprising if Yeley won a Cup pole next year. Right now his best tracks are speedways like California, Texas and Chicago. Over time, places like Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix could fit his style well too.

At 30, Yeley is not a young gun like most of the 2006 rookies. Does that make 2007 more urgent? The good news is probably not. That is not Joe Gibbs' style. One of the strengths of Gibbs Racing is the continuity. Tony Stewart has had the same crew chief for almost a decade. Interstate Batteries is a part of that continuity and it's doubtful they will demand immediate results that other more high-profile sponsors might. That said, Yeley can't get too comfortable. Aric Almirola is driving for Gibbs in Busch in 2007. If things go well, he could be Cup-ready soon.

Progress will come on 2007, but accidents and mistakes will still temper the season. If Yeley smooths out the rough spots, he could jump up to the low 20's in points. Year three will be the real chance for Yeley to make a splash.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Sterling Marlin

For more than 15 years Sterling Marlin was a consistent force on the Cup tour. From 1987-2002, he won eight races, including back to back Daytona 500’s. He averaged 5 top 5’s and 12 top tens per season during the decade and finished as high as third in the points. His best year, 2002, was cut short by an injury or he may have won his first Winston Cup. Since that year, injury related or otherwise, Marlin’s performance has slipped every year. 2006 marked the fourth straight season with a decline in top 10’s, points rank and laps led. Marlin had one top ten. He hadn’t scored less than four in a year since 1985 when he only ran eight races.

Marlin was essentially put out to pasture in 2005 by Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates racing and landed with MB/2 motorsports. The year did not go well from the season opener at Daytona. Marlin finished worse than 32nd in the first four races and sunk any serious hopes for competing. By the end of the year Marlin was fighting to stay in the top 35 in owners’ points, a battle he lost.

Marlin had two patches of solid runs spread among the wrecks and poor finishes. In the spring Marlin finished 17^th at Bristol, 14^th at Martinsville, 12^th at Phoenix and 9^th at Richmond. The second run came in the fall when he had a 20^th (Kansas), 11^th (Charlotte), 21^st (Martinsville), and 20^th(Atlanta). Unfortunately poor finishes surrounded the rest of the year. Marlin had 18 races 30^th or worse, and only 9 lead lap finishes.

8 DNF’s were the major reason for Marlin falling outside the top 35. The last three races Marlin suffered two crashes and a blown engine. Marlin had three engine failures during the year, surprisingly high for Hendrick motors. By comparison, the four Hendrick teams lost four engines total.

Despite the frustrations on the track, some good things did happen in 2006. Marlin passed the $40 million mark in career earnings. He also made his 700th Cup start, moving to ninth all-time. The biggest plus was Bobby Ginn purchasing the team. Ginn began the year with partial sponsorship of the #14 car. This only whetted his appetite for NASCAR. Like the old Remington shaver commercials, Ginn liked it so much he bought the company. Ginn made an immediate difference. MB/2 had struggled to fund 2 full-time teams and was considering merging with DEI. Once Ginn bought the company, not only were both cars fully sponsored, the team will expand to three cars in 2007.

Journeyman Slugger Labbe is Marlin’s crew chief. Labbe has not lasted a full season with one team since 2003. He left DEI and Michael Waltrip in 2004 and moved to Evernham in 2005. He helped Jeremy Mayfield make the Chase, but was fired before the year was out. Labbe surfaced at Robert Yates and worked with Dale Jarrett. After a four-race suspension for rules infractions, Labbe was eventually released from Yates mid-season. So Labbe is now on his fourth team in three years, and no one should be shocked if he didn’t last the whole season at Ginn either.

Looking forward, 2007 may be Marlin's final full season. He turns 50 in June and his future might depend on how next year goes. The first five races require Marlin to qualify on speed. With so much competition for seven spots, Marlin faces a tough challenge. Marlin averaged a 23.9 starting position in 2006. Hendrick motors will help in his qualifying quest, although it could cost him practice time in race trim.

Ginn’s money should inject new hope for the operation. The team is now able to afford newer technologies necessary to stay competitive. Expanding to three full-time teams means additional data to share. Marlin can still drive, especially at short tracks. His average finish at the six short track races was 20.5. Richmond was his only top ten finish all year. He also has five career wins at plate tracks and knows how to work in the draft. The team has run well at plate tracks, which bodes well for the start of the year. Marlin’s career has declined, but at choice tracks he is still capable of a strong run. With renewed support and excitement from Ginn, Marlin is capable of entering the top 35 in points. This would go a long towards securing sponsorship for the car. It might also be motivation for Marlin to return in 2008.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Raines

Tony Raines			Age: 42
#96 DLP Chevrolet			Crew Chief: Brandon Thomas
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
29	0	0	1	3
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	31.8	24.4	35th	54.0
RAF	LLF	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
28	11	28	1	$2,317,695

Want an idea of how the new Toyota teams will fare in 2007? Look to Hall of Fame racing for an example. The way their season went might be the absolute best scenario for how to form a Cup team. The #96 car quietly and uneventfully worked their way into the top 35. Once there they began building a foundation for the next year. With a combination of Terry Labonte and Tony Raines, the car was simultaneously avoiding trouble and the spotlight. The two combined for 1 DNF all season.

Crashes are a season killer. This is especially true for an upstart, one car team. Raines had an exceptional season in this context. Toyota teams should aim to mirror the #96’s smooth entry to the Cup series. Staying inside the Top 35, finishing races and avoiding crashes are the three big keys to success for a rookie team. Hall of Fame accomplished all three.

The team had a lot of other factors to help avoid many of the growing pains of a new team. Labonte and his Champion provisional started the first five races for a guaranteed starting spot. He finished every race to firmly secure the #96 team inside the top 35. This alleviated pressure once Tony Raines assumed the wheel at Martinsville. Joe Gibbs Racing also provided engines, cars and technical support. HoF was able to piggyback off of Gibbs’ experience starting a new car, which they endured in 2005.

After several years of scraping together rides in the various NASCAR series, Tony Raines finally landed a ride with a reliable, funded team. He made the most of his chance in 2006. Raines is the type of driver that will not generate attention or incite on-track drama. He simply drives hard, completes laps and finishes as well as possible. Despite running only 29 races, he still finished 35th in points. He bested Travis Kvapil and Michael Waltrip despite fewer starts.

Think about all the potential problems a race team faces every race. Now consider that Raines had one DNF and you realize how impressive his record was last year. Obviously some luck is involved, but the driver and crew also need skill. It's deciding when to pit when he hears a vibration, avoiding cars on pit road, and not squeezing into a small hole on lap 40. The crew also deserves credit for ensuring every part from the $45,000 engine to the $1.99 plugs are tested and working.

Raines finest night was the fall race at Lowe's. In that race he led 28 laps (the only laps led of the year) on his way to a 7th place finish. It was also his highest driver rating of the season with a 97.0. This was the key piece of a solid run down the stretch. In the final seven races, Raines' average finish was 19.2. The strong finish coincided with a crew chief change. Phillipe Lopez was promoted to competition director, opening the door for Brandon Thomas to call the shots for Raines. Thomas was last a crew chief with Bobby Labonte at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2004.

Raines can't get comfortable with his solid 2006. His sponsor DLP Texas Instruments was ranked in the top ten for greatest visibility. This basically means that Texas Instruments has a lot invested in the team. Now that the team has progressed past the infant stage, improved results will also be expected. Raines was brought back for 2007, but nothing is certain long term. Is he the driver to elevate HoF to an elite team? He needs to continue improving his results throughout the season. He has run well in other series, including four wins in the Truck Series. His strength is the intermediate speedways. Fortunately the 2006 notes from these tracks will still be relevant in 2007. Raines should have comfort heading to the type of track that comprises 40% of the schedule.

Long term, the team is working towards a second team. This is the only way to stay current in NASCAR. Multiple cars to share notes and date is the only way to keep up. The alternative is winding up like Morgan-McClure or worse, PPI Racing. This expansion will be Lopez' main focus as competition director. His other project is the Car of Tomorrow. Like every team next year, crews must have two track minds. One for the normal speedway cars and another focusing on the CoT. Hall of Fame will again be able to tap into Gibbs' resources and support to ensure this goes smoothly. As long as they have this connection with Gibbs, they will always have top equipment that the team can grow into.

The outlook for Raines is a top 25 finish in the points with 2 or 3 top tens. Avoiding trouble is again a large key in how he finishes. The Chase isn't a realistic goal this year. The points neighborhood consists of veteran drivers like Dale Jarrett, Jeff Green and Joe Nemechek, and Raines can compete with all of them.

Previous Previews:

AJ Allmendinger

Michael Waltrip

Jeremy Mayfield

David Gilliland

Kenny Wallace