View from the Couch: Atlanta

Atlanta was just what NASCAR needed: An exciting race with few cautions and even less controversy. After the cheating at Daytona, lots of cautions (including disputed debris) at California, the tire complaints and wrecks at Las Vegas an uneventful weekend suited all parties well. A tight finish made things even better. Unfortunately, the racing will take a weekend or two off while the focus returns to the Car of Tomorrow. Expect widespread panic this week as several teams complain about the new car, while the few teams that did their winter homework laugh all the way to Victory Lane.

I had to tape the race and watched it last night. As a result I was more concerned with finishing the race than analyzing the various coverage elements. Many will say that’s a good thing. The one thing that stuck out to me was green flag runs give the Fox crew less time to goof around. That means they are talking about racing instead of showing needless fluff or allowing DW to go off on tangents. I though the coverage was pretty good on Sunday.

A few thoughts:
Ignore DW because Mark Martin will not make the Chase. He plans to miss the next two races and will certainly skip more during the summer. Say he misses two races that he normally scores top 20’s. Considering how he has run so far this year, that’s a safe estimate. That’s at least 206 points Martin leaves on the table. It would be tough to make that difference up. That’s also not accounting for any bad runs Martin has. Martin doesn’t seem to care, so why does everyone else want to make a big deal out of it?

-Props to Mike Bliss and BAM racing. They failed to qualify in the first three races, but Bliss was 9^th fastest at Atlanta and finished 21^st.

-Juan Pablo Montoya had a great run at Atlanta. Ganassi’s equipment is really improved and Montoya is learning quickly. After his first Cup top 5 his reward is 1000 laps of short track racing over the next two weeks. People can complain about Montoya saturation, but he is pretty exciting to watch. One of the most impressive things about Montoya’s run was the tire management. Teams were reporting minor tire issues and other cars struggled on long runs. Montoya drove aggressively but consistently. Consider that in Formula 1, the cars run one set of tires for two entire races.

-Setting aside the engine woes at California, DEI might have graduated from being an overgrown one-car team. There are early signs that they finally have two teams that can run well every week. Martin Truex Jr scored a top ten Sunday and ran well at Daytona and Las Vegas too. Dale Earnhardt Jr has spent the majority of the last two weeks in the top five, but hasn’t finished well. The finishes will come at the speedways. It’s a significant improvement over previous years where Earnhardt Jr was the only car capable of running up front every week. Now we’ll see if DEI paid attention to the Car of Tomorrow.

Who Would Have Predicted…
…That Evernham cars would have two top ten’s and none on the intermediate tracks where they usually run so well.

…That David Ragan would have more top fives (1) than Greg Biffle (0).

…The most consistent Dodge to date would be David Stremme.

…That Toyota would have this much trouble. Only one car (#44 Dale Jarrett) currently sits inside the top 35. David Reutimann can’t seem to avoid trouble. He now has 3 crashes in 3 races and sits 43^rd in points.

…That James Hylton would have as many points as Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger and more than Michael Waltrip.

…That after four races, there is no sign of a feud between any two drivers. That should change next weekend in a small Tennessee town called Bristol.

Mexico City Thoughts

A few thoughts I had while watching the Mexico Busch race, and my first viewing of the ESPN coverage.

-Juan-Pablo Montoya won a road race in the Busch Series. It was an impressive charge through the field, but let’s not get crazy now. He would have been a favorite had it been his first stock car race. He’s a better driver than any of the road course ringers, plus Ganassi has one of the top road course programs in NASCAR.

-Rusty Wallace missed the point with the Montoya-Pruett incident. He said Pruett would get over it with time. That’s fine, but Pruett only gets 3-4 chances each year to win a stock car race. If Montoya loses, he has full Busch and Cup schedules for other chances. Pruett does not and had a right to be angry. Wallace also cited that Montoya was the best car all day, so things essentially worked out. Apparently that makes everything ok. Montoya did have the best car and could have passed Pruett almost anywhere on the track. That’s what makes the incident more unnecessary. I wonder what Rusty would have said if Montoya bumped Steven Wallace out of the way.

-The first time ESPN checked in with Montoya under yellow, I thought, that’s cool. Then they did it under the very next caution and I thought, just leave his radio on the air and call it good. There are 40 other drivers plus crew chiefs to interview. Brad Parrott was interviewed several times, but they never interviewed anyone else. How about interviewing Boris Said after the race? If they are looking for entertainment, that’s the man to talk to.

-Check out Marcos Ambrose. Despite a late spin he finished 8^th at Mexico City and sits 5^th in the points. With fewer teams running the entire Busch schedule, he has a chance to finish in the top 10. He had a nice season in trucks last year and might attempt a few Cup races this year.

-In the three year history of the race, it was the finest showing for Mexican drivers. Two Mexican drivers finished in the top ten, Jorge Goeters (7^th) and Adrian Fernandez (9^th). Miguel Jordain finished 25^th. Three drivers, Goeters, German Quiroga, and Carlos Contreras, also led laps during the race.

I guess it’s time to bring the big boys back for Vegas. New surface, tire questions, and of course the normal news cycles about Junior's contract, someone hating the Car of Tomorrow, someone hating Toyota and how certain teams must qualify for races. Heck, the season is three weeks old, it's probably time for a Silly Season rumor. It should be an interesting week.

Surprises, quasi-surprises and other thoughts

This morning there is a near consensus among NASCAR writers and bloggers. David Gillialand's pole win is a surprise. I've even seen it dubbed a Cinderella story. Did everyone forget that Gilliland won the last restrictor plate pole at Talladega last October? Or that Yates Engines have captured six of the last nine poles at Talladega and Daytona? RYR's performance has declined in the past few seasons, but the one area that is always top notch is their plate program. It is somewhat surprising that Boris Said qualified fifth, but he won the July pole last year. I thought the bigger surprise was how well the Ganassi cars fared. Both Juan-Pablo Montoya and David Stremme were fast, although something happened with Reed Sorenson's car during the second lap.

-The other prevalent thought among writers and bloggers is that the Bud Shootout proved Tony Stewart will have a big season. I agree Stewart will be a threat in 2007, but not because he won the Shootout. The win enforced that he's a great plate driver and had the best backup car among the field. It's the first action during the season and people love drawing conclusions, but the Bud Shootout has very little bearing on the season. In fact the Daytona 500 itself has little impact on the shape of the season. Races 2-8 will be the real barometer. California, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Texas will show who has the best intermediate package. Bristol, Martinsville and Phoenix will show who did their homework on the Car of Tomorrow. We'll hear plenty about how Stewart has momentum or the Daytona 500 is now a title threat, but ignore it. Jimmie Johnson didn't win or lose the Cup last year because he won the 500. He won because his team was good everywhere.

-I can understand Michael Waltrip's need to push the rules envelope to find a speed advantage. I never understand teams inside the top 35 that try to cheat at restrictor plate tracks, especially during Daytona 500 qualifying. Unless Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth really wanted to win the pole, there is no point in cheating. First, they are assured a place in the race. Second, single-car qualifying beyond the top two spots has almost zero bearing on your starting position for the 500. And third, aside from pit selection, the starting position means very little in a plate race. Yet people constantly try to get away with modifications every year.

-Fox's new 3D model to show crashes sounded good on paper. Then they used it during the last lap crash in the Bud Shootout. It showed nothing that the on-board cameras didn't. In fact it was about as cutting edge as the commercial that re-enacts the 1979 Daytona 500. Maybe it will improve during the season.

-In one weekend, I'm already tired of the DirecTV ad with Dale Jr. Ditto for the Subway ad with Tony Stewart. Each ad must have played 10 times each over two days. Stewart (and Michael Strahan) has to introduce his full name, but Jared Fogel just says, "Hi, I'm Jared." Does that bother anyone else? Who is the bigger star here? It's time for some new NASCAR commercials.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Reed Sorenson

Reed Sorenson Age 20
0 wins, 1 top 5, 5 top 10's, 11 top 15's
Points rank: 24th Driver Rating: 68.4
#41 Target Dodge Crew Chief Jimmy Elledge

For a 20 year old rookie with one previous career Cup start, Reed Sorenson's rookie season was pretty normal. Glimpses of his talent blended together with his inexperience for a top 25 points finish. He crashed often (12 times, 4 DNF's), but he also showed why he is a top driving prospect. The biggest thing Sorenson lacks is experience and seat time. A busy 2006 schedule running both full Cup and Busch schedules helped accelerate his learning curve. After winning two Busch races in 2005, last season was a mild disappointment. He finished 10th in points, with 5 top 5's and 14 top 10's. Although it wasn't the season the team anticipated, it was still valuable seasoning.

On the Cup side, Sorenson started slowly, mostly staying out of the way in the first three races. In the fourth race he scored his first top ten at his home track, Atlanta. Strong runs continued at unfriendly tracks like Martinsville (12th) and Darlington (11th) displayed his talent. In between were bumpy runs at Phoenix, Talladega and Richmond.

The combination of Sorenson and crew chief Jimmy Elledge worked well in season one. Prior to Sorenson, Elledge helped Casey Mears improve for three years. One trait of Elledge is his willingness to take risks. At Michigan in a race threatened by rain, Elledge gambled on track position keeping Sorenson out during the final pit stop. The gamble worked as rain shortened the race after 129 laps, giving Sorenson his first top 5. It wasn't a complete theft. Sorenson ran in the top ten during the latter part of the race, but the gamble did leapfrog several cars to improve his finish.

They gambled again at the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana. Sorenson nearly won the race before running out of fuel one lap short, finishing 21st. The move still made sense for a rookie simply trying to get experience and finish races. His best race of the season came at the second Dover race. Sorenson led 39 laps and was running fourth until he again ran out of gas with two laps left. He wound up eleventh, but his 112.5 driver rating was fifth best. The finish also capped a very solid seven race segment where his average finish was 17th. It was a good cross-section of the Cup scene. Races at Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, California, Richmond, Loudon and Dover run the range of difficulty and variety.

Unfortunately like every rookie not named Hamlin, Sorenson hit a rough patch to end the year. After Dover he finished 43rd, 39th, 36th, 35th and 29th. He also drew Dale Jarrett's ire at Lowe's for multiple incidents. As a result Jarrett donated pieces of his wrecked car to Sorenson's hauler.

Looking ahead to 2007 Sorenson will continue to improve with experience. Having established a notebook allows Elledge to improve setups the second time around. Sorenson gets a new teammate to replace the departing Mears. Juan-Pablo Montoya comes to NASCAR after an impressive open-wheel career. Montoya might bring a lot of help for Sorenson. His impressive resume includes championships, premiere wins and experience in several of the world's best racing series. Montoya's credibility will carry more weight when giving feedback to Ganassi. It's not that Ganassi doesn't recognize the need for improvement, but hearing it from a world class driver as opposed to a youngster like Sorenson or David Stremme has more impact.

The biggest question is still about the cars. Can Ganassi improve the equipment and enable Sorenson to run up front consistently? That will determine how successful Sorenson's second season goes. Ganassi made some changes in management during the season. If the changes work, it will help all three cars. Progress could be difficult with cloudy future of Dodge. As the year progresses, don't be surprised to hear rumors about Ganassi moving to Toyota.

Like many rookies Sorenson's weaknesses were plate tracks and short tracks. This is the type of track that sometimes even patience isn't enough. It takes time earning respect from veterans. Sorenson's strength is easily the intermediate tracks. All of his top tens came at 1.5 mile or 2 mile speedways. The results didn't show, but he also ran well at Loudon and Dover. He is scaling back his Busch schedule to focus on the Cup side in 2007. This is probably a good move, especially with the new Car of Tomorrow to worry about. Since that car won't run in the Busch series, the seat time won't transfer as directly.

Sorenson has the potential to win races, but needs consistency first. If Ganassi's equipment improves Sorenson is capable of 2 or 3 top fives. His weekly performance is still uneven, but he will eventually compete for wins and Chase berths in the coming years. A top 20 finish, something he almost accomplished in 2006, is a definite possibility.

NASCAR Driver Preview: David Stremme

David Stremme
Age: 29 Crew Chief: Steven Lane
#40 Coors Light/Lonestar Steakhouse Dodge
(0 wins, 0 top 5's, 0 top 10's, 4 top 15's)
Avg start 26.4 Avg finish 26.4
Pts: 34th, Driver Rating: 54.2
It's too bad David Stremme and the 40 car fell into a huge hole at the start of the season, because his late season progress went unnoticed. After a 28th place, lead-lap finish at the Daytona 500, it unraveled quickly for the Chip Ganassi rookie. Accidents and mechanical failures left Stremme finishing 33rd or worse in the next five races. After the Bristol race, Stremme was locked outside the top 35. Things were so dire, he was battling Brent Sherman in the standings. To Stremme's credit he qualified for every race he was entered.

From race #2 at California through the 14th race at Pocono, Stremme did not have a lead lap finish. Compounding the struggles was acrew chief switch, forcing Stremme to start over mid-season. After the seventh race at Texas, Stremme got a new crew chief. First-time crew chief Jeff Vandermoss was replaced by veteran Steven Lane. In the long run, the Stremme and Lane combination began working. In his next seven starts, he had six lead lap finishes. The only race he didn't finish on the lead lap, he finished one lap down at the July Pocono race.

While the finishes weren't eye-catching, there were signs of improvement. He qualified 4th at Darlington and 3rd at the July Daytona race. He finished a season high 11th at New Hampshire, his first top 15. He also had a highlight during an ARCA race at Michigan. Driving for Rusty Wallace, Stremme lapped the entire field en route to the win. That has to build confidence for a young driver. With some help from Scott Pruett at road courses, he rejoined the top 35 in August.

Stremme's finishes improved as the year progressed, especially during the Chase. While he couldn't score his first top ten, he did have three top fifteen finishes during the final ten races. Had another strong run at Atlanta ruined by a Kasey Kahne “brain fade ”. His average finish for the Chase was 21.9. For context, Chaser Kyle Busch averaged a 22.6 finish.

Stremme stepped into a difficult position in 2006. The #40 car hadn't been a consistent threat for three years. His crew chief Vandermoss was brand new to Ganassi after moving from Matt Kenseth's team at Roush. Worse, his teammates were Reed Sorenson, a twenty -year old rookie and Casey Mears, entering his fourth year in Cup. There wasn't a veteran presence at Ganassi making it tough to lean on anyone for information. The equipment was also not on par with the elite teams in the sport. Adding to the pressure, his sponsor Coors Light competes against two high profile drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kurt Busch. Coors will always be third to Budweiser and Miller Lite in Nascar. Not the ideal scenario to step into. Don’t feel too bad, he did win $3,422,254 in earnings.

Unfortunately, most of these issues remain in 2007. Mears left Ganassi for Hendrick Motorsports. He was replaced with Juan-Pablo Montoya. Montoya has loads of racing experience, but almost zero in a stock car. This means Stremme is the elder statesman of the team. The cars made strides on the technology side, but still are behind other multi-car teams.

The biggest key for Stremme depends on how Ganassi can improve their cars. Ernie Elliott provides reliable engines (2 blown engines all season), but not always known for pure horsepower. The organization hasn’t won a race since 2002. None of the cars have run consistently at the front over the last two years. It also hurts that Dodge is fourth among manufacturer support in NASCAR.

There is good news as well. Ganassi hired John Fernandez from Dodge to manage the racing operation. The addition of Montoya to Cup could also spur Ganassi to improve the fleet of cars. The Dodge Charger will also get a new nose, which the teams hope will solve some of the aerodynamic and balance issues from the past two years.

In the meantime, Stremme should continue to improve into a solid driver in his second season. Many of his best finishes in the Busch series came on short, flat tracks like Milwaukee and Memphis. His best finishes in Cup came on similar styled tracks like Martinsville and Loudon. These kind of tracks are less reliant on aerodnamics and more about handling and the driver. Stremme, the 2003 Busch Rookie of the Year, can at least have these tracks to fall back on while waiting for improvements at intermediate tracks. Barring another top-35 fallout, he should also get his first chances at the two road courses in Cup action. Stremme is still learning and the more seat time the better. Capturing his first top tens in Cup should happen this year and a top 30 finish in the points is likely.