2007 Cup Predictions (bookmark this for crow-eating purposes)

I realize that my top ten driver and rookie previews will go unfinished. While I'm disappointed with myself, it was fun to run through over 30 drivers leading up to the top ten. It was a combination of other commitments, the feeling that I was writing the same thing for every driver, and also the fact that most NASCAR fans know plenty about the top ten drivers.

I've managed to wait until the very last minute before making my 2007 predictions prior to Daytona. I got five out of ten last year and expect about the same this year.

Predictions for the 12 Chasers:
#1 Martin Truex Jr.-The more I think about him, the more I'm convinced he is going to have a big year. Truex is strong at most types of tracks and the team now has a better handle on setups and in-race adjustments.

#2 Kurt Busch-Last year was a transition year for both Busch and Penske Racing. Busch is one of the five best drivers in the sport. If he can finish races as well as he starts them, watch out.

#5 Kyle Busch-Some people, including Kurt, believe Kyle is the most talented Busch boy. One question for the #5 team is how they interact with the new team behind the #25 car, including Casey Mears and new crew chief Darian Grubb. He will contend for the Cup, but fall just short.

#07 Clint Bowyer-It's a safe bet that he will win a race in 2007. He took full advantage of RCR's improved equipment, especially on the intermediate tracks. The biggest key for Bowyer is the short tracks, where he will need more patience.

#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr-Look past the contract squabble. Earnhardt and Eury got the job done last year. If they stay on top of the Car of Tomorrow it could be a title contending team.

#9 Kasey Kahne-A new nose for the Charger might help neutralize the cars on speedways. Kahne still needs to hold up his end of the consistency stick by reducing the number of late-race crashes.

#16 Greg Biffle-New crew chief Pat Tryson rebuilt the crew for the 16 car. Things aren't perfect at Roush, but they're still good enough to send drivers to the Chase.

#20 Tony Stewart-Smoke is the trendy pick to win everything this year. There is no reason to think he won't dominate, but it's not guaranteed either.

#24 Jeff Gordon-Gordon and Steve Letarte have the best resources in Cup. The problem is there are too many small holes in their program that take him down a notch compared to Stewart, Johnson or Harvick.

#29 Kevin Harvick-Harvick proved in 2006 that he is an elite driver. Not only did he finally have consistent equipment from RCR, but he also didn't lose his emotions like he had in previous years. Their diligence on the Car of Tomorrow gives Harvick an edge at the mile and less tracks.

#48 Jimmie Johnson-Like Stewart, there is no reason why Johnson can't win the Cup. He should win several races and be extremely consistent, but it is just too hard to repeat.

#99 Carl Edwards-Will there be a backflip this year? Missing the Chase and reuniting with Bob Osborne should allow Edwards to return to form.

On the outside looking in (otherwise known as the drivers that make the Chase when France expands to 15 in 2008):
#17 Matt Kenseth- Things were not right on the #17 car at the end of the season. It might be time for a makeover for the team.
#11 Denny Hamlin- Hamlin's 2006 season was divine. Even when he spun in the grass he could still recover to win the race. Despite top-notch Gibbs equipment, Hamlin will eventually run into a slump this season.
#42-Juan-Pablo Montoya- He'll crash and struggle some in Ganassi equipment, but he may also be this year's Denny Hamlin. While other rookies struggle to qualify, he's busy racing for top tens right off the bat.

And the winner is...
The biggest unknown is the Car of Tomorrow. Five of the Chase races will feature the new ride. The team that figures out how to get the car to turn well is going to win the Chase. RCR has spent a lot of energy and money to ensure they are prepared for the new car. The #29 team was the best at flat 1-mile tracks where getting the car to roll through the corners is vital. That is why Kevin Harvick will have an edge on other teams. It will make the difference for him to capture his first championship at the Cup level.

Nascar Driver Preview: Jeremy Mayfield

Jeremy Mayfield			Age: 37
#36 OTC 360 Toyota			Crew Chief: Tommy Baldwin
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
22	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	24.3	28.6	39th	53.6
Running at Finish	Lead Lap Finish	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
19	9	15	3	$2,546,999

At least Mayfield has an appropriate sponsor for 2007. OTC 360 can help relieve the heartburn that was his ’06 season. Without dwelling too much on the tabloid-esque drama, here’s a quick summary. Prior to 2006, Ray Evernham moved Mayfield’s team director Kenny Francis to Kasey Kahne’s team. Mayfield struggled so badly that he fell out of the top 35 in owner’s points. After the Brickyard in August he was replaced by Bill Elliott, which led to Mayfield filing a lawsuit against Evernham. He was eventually replaced by Elliott Sadler. Meanwhile Mayfield signed with Bill Davis Racing to drive a new second car in 2007. There were other, less important details that came out on both sides of the Mayfield-Evernham squabble that didn’t relate to his on-track performance. They only made things ugly for both parties and left Mayfield without a ride for the rest of the season.

Whatever story you believe, you can’t deny Mayfield’s ugly results in 2006. He was one of seven drivers to qualify for the Chase in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he struggled to stay in the top 35 in owner’s points.

In 2005 he made the Chase on the strength of finishing races on the lead lap. If he wasn’t racking up top fives, at least he was consistently staying out of trouble. There was a lot of talk about how the Dodge teams struggled with the new Charger, so the fact that Mayfield rarely ran up front was excused.

This past year, it was more obvious that something with Mayfield’s driving style didn’t work with what Evernham’s program. The team figured out some key elements with the Charger. Kasey Kahne won three of the first 12 races. Scott Riggs had three top tens and one pole in the same span. Riggs also had several other races where he ran in the top ten the majority of the race. Meanwhile Mayfield struggled from the start.

It wasn’t even a case of bad luck or getting caught up in other’s wrecks. He had two DNF’s all year. It was more a case of Mayfield flat out struggling. He only had four top twenty finishes all year and zero top tens. Mayfield also had a 53.6 driver rating for the season, placing him with the back markers and field fillers.

The relative high point was a two race stretch in the spring. He qualified 2^nd at both Charlotte and Dover before finishing 15th and 18th respectively. Mayfield had his best race at Dover. He led 14 laps and ran in the top 20 all day. It was also his highest driver rating, 82.5. For context, an 82.5 is about a 15th place car. Unfortunately, he would not have another finish better than 22nd.

It’s hard to believe Mayfield’s claims that Evernham didn’t provide enough support for the 19 car. Mayfield’s entire fleet of top 15 caliber cars moved with Francis to Kahne’s team. Meanwhile Mayfield’s team built all new cars. Whatever technological advances Evernham discovered during the off-season would have been applied to the new batch of cars. Further, Sadler jumped in and finished tenth in his first race.

Moving forward, Mayfield is certainly better than his 2006 season. He is also not an elite driver. He is sandwiched somewhere in the middle. Given the right equipment he can compete for the occasional win but is not going to lead a lot of laps or threaten for a top ten every week.

For 2007, it turns out falling out of the top 35 was good practice for Mayfield. Qualifying will be the biggest hurdle for all the Toyota teams initially. Making the first five races for Mayfield is paramount. If he doesn’t, his season could slide very quickly.

Former Evernham crew chief Tommy Baldwin will call the shots for Mayfield this year. Ironically Baldwin began 2006 as Sadler’s crew chief at RYR before being released to join Bill Davis Racing. Before Mayfield signed, Baldwin stepped in as Michael Waltrip’s crew chief to finish the year.

Mayfield’s best tracks on tour are Dover, Darlington and Pocono. He has two wins, four top 5’s and nine top 10’s at the triangular Pocono.

While 2007 might be a disjointed year for Mayfield, the long term future is solid for BDR and Toyota. Bill Davis is a powerhouse in the truck series and with Toyota’s support will now turn its focus to Cup. For the first time in four years Davis will have manufacturer support for his Cup teams. Davis will have two fully sponsored Cup cars for the first time since 2003.

When setting goals for Mayfield and the #36 car, it’s important to remember that this is a brand new team with a brand new manufacturer. To qualify for at least 90% of the races (32+), get inside the top 35 in points, and capture one or two top tens. If all of these things happen it sets a nice foundation for 2008. If Mayfield struggles to qualify or can’t run well enough to stay inside the top 35, things could get frustrating. Mayfield can’t get caught up in short term success in ’07, when the team won’t be ready to really compete until 2008.

NASCAR Driver Preview: David Gilliland

David Gilliland			Age: 30
#38 M&M"s Ford			Crew Chief: Todd Parrott
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
14	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points	Driver Rating
1	22.1	28.3	42nd	53.4

Raise your hand if you knew who David Gilliland was before 2006? Put your hand down, liar. Prior to June 17th, very few had heard of the 30 year old from California who got his start in the Southwest Series, one of NASCAR's regional series. He started the year with a partial Busch schedule with underfunded Clay Andrews Racing. After struggling to qualify for races, Gilliland not only qualified, but started 4th at Kentucky in June. He went on to win in the biggest surprise of the year. It's possibly one of the biggest surprises in NASCAR history.

What may have been more impressive happened the following week at Sonoma. In another testament to his talent he qualified an equally underfunded #72 car for the Sonoma Cup race. It didn't garner as much attention as his Busch win, but it was an amazing feat. Consider that it was Gilliland's Nextel Cup debut on a road course and was driving against road course experts like Ron Fellows, Boris Said, Scott Pruett, P.J. Jones and Brian Simo. He qualified 31st (Simo failed to qualify) and finished two laps down in 32nd.

By August Gilliland was hired by Robert Yates Racing to replace Elliott Sadler. In less than a season, he had gone from scraping together money and attempting Busch races to a guaranteed ride in Nextel Cup. It was too unbelievable for a Disney movie.

After a rocky start filled with flat tires and several crashes, Gilliland and Parrott began to mesh. Even in the short span of fourteen races, the progress was noticeable.The first six starts his average finish was 34.8. The last eight starts had an average finish of 22.9, including two top fifteens (Talladega, Atlanta). He also ran in the top ten for the majority of the finale at Homestead before a crash.

Gilliland also showed his strength in qualifying, by starting in the top ten on three occasions. He won his first pole at Talladega in October. It was the third straight Talladega pole for the 38 car. Once the race started, Gilliland stayed out of the way and finished a season high 15th.

Yates has done a great job of surrounding Gilliland with tools to succeed. Todd Parrott is one of the best crew chiefs in the sport. He made an instant impact at Petty Enterprises last year. For all the problems RYR has had, they are still in better shape than Petty. Gilliland was a crew chief for his fatherButch, early in his career. It's a unique skill among drivers and no doubt has helped his communication with Parrott.

It was the right decision to insert Gilliland in the #38 car as soon as possible. Running for Rookie of the Year might have been nice, but it can't make up for the extra eight races Gilliland was able to run in '06. Gilliland had never raced at several of the Cup tracks, so every one of his 4,163 laps was invaluable experience. It was the same plan that accelerated Carl Edwards' path in 2004 when he debuted at the August Michigan race. Obviously Edwards entered with a dominant team, but the theory remains the same. Spending time building chemistry with Parrott puts them ahead of the rookies that take over at Daytona.

Another help in Gilliland's learning curve arrives in his new teammate, Ricky Rudd. Pairing Gilliland with a veteran, especially someone as experienced as Rudd is ideal for the young driver. Having a sounding board in Dale Jarrett and now Rudd, is a huge luxury for Gilliland and his progress. While Yates' situation looked dire this summer, they never hit rock bottom. A similar slide happened at Richard Childress Racing, resulting in significant changes. 2006 may have been that wakeup call for Yates.

The other big key to accelerating Gilliland's progress is running a part-time Busch schedule with Team Rensi Motorsports. Additional seat time, especially at unfamiliar tracks will help immensely. While Rensi isn't a Busch series power, that obvioulsy won't faze Gilliland.

Gilliland's Talladega pole qualified him for the 2007 Bud Shootout. It's a perfect way to start the season, with an exhibition race to gain more comfort. The strongest part of Yates' program is unquestionably restrictor plate races. He will certainly have a top ten car come Daytona. Yates should have a pretty good gauge on the seaon in the next three races at California, Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Looking towards next year, 20-25th in the points wouldn't be out of the question. Jarrett finished 23rd last year and it seems reasonable that Gilliland can match that. Gilliland's 53.4 driver rating was very close to Jarrett's 57.4. There is no reason why Gilliland can't improve on that. His strength figures to be speedways, especially the west coast races where he has lots of experience. Bristol and Martinsville will be educational. There will be mistakes, frustrating crashes and failures, but there is also great hope for Yates and Gilliland. Four to six top ten finishes is a realistic goal. Of course Gilliland has always exceeded expectations before, so you never know.

Past Previews:
Kenny Wallace

Driver Preview: Kenny Wallace

Kenny Wallace			Age: 43
#78 Furniture Row Chevrolet			Crew Chief: Joe Garone
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
17	0	0	0	0
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	34.8	34.2	43rd	33.0
RAF	Lead Lap Finish	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
14	1	1	3	$1,336,150

2006 was a busy year for Kenny Wallace. Aside from his full-time Busch series schedule, he also drove in 17 Cup races for upstart Furniture Row Racing. He also has his broadcasting duties for the Speed Channel to keep him at the track. Returning to Cup racing, even in a sub par ride, was a plus for Wallace, who hadn’t made more than five Cup starts since 2003. The downside was his Busch year. It was the first time in Wallace’s career that he finished outside the top ten in points when running a full Busch schedule.

Although it was a down year by Wallace’s standards, he did have four top tens and 12 top fifteens. True to form, his best finishes came at tough short tracks like Bristol, Gateway and Milwaukee. He was also strong again at Nashville. An eleventh place finish in the Busch series doesn’t appear great on first glance. The Series was tougher than ever, and Wallace’s finish was third among Busch regulars.

The highlight of Wallace’s Cup year was making the field for the Brickyard 400. Not only did he qualify 28th, he finished on the lead lap in 32nd. Over 17 races, Wallace earned $1,336,150 in winnings to go along with $906,764 for his Busch efforts. Wallace’s money breakdown shows the huge disparity in purses between the two series.

Last year Wallace’s first priority was his full-time Busch ride with PPC racing. After losing sponsorship, Wallace signed a two-year deal to drive exclusively for Furniture Row in Cup. That means he will turn his focus to making races on Sundays, with occasional starts in the Furniture Row Busch car at companion events.

Pick one word to describe Wallace and reliable comes to mind. He only had five total DNF’s in 52 combined starts. He only missed 70 laps all year in Busch, second best in the series. He may not get to drive top tier equipment, but he does stay on the track and finish races. He goes about his job without incident. Rarely is he involved in disputes or problems with other drivers. Most people know Wallace for his goofy personality on TV, but Wallace is very serious about his driving career. Look at last fall when Roush Racing dismissed Kurt Busch before the Phoenix race. Wallace jumped into the car prepared specifically for Busch yet still finished 17^th. It wasn’t flashy just very solid. When in decent to good cars, Wallace is able to show his skill.

Wallace and Furniture Row have a daunting task next year in the Cup series. To begin with, the headquarters is in Denver, two time zones away from the heart of NASCAR. This severely limits their talent pool. Running Chevrolets allows them to buy engines from Richard Childress Racing. This definitely helps with reliability and horsepower, especially concerning qualifying. The downside is this relegates the team to the bottom of the Chevy food chain. This equals very little technical help from the manufacturer.

This is the obstacle course an upstart team like Furniture Row must negotiate. To pile on, the team is not in the top 35 in owners’ points. Just like last year Wallace will have to Qualifying on speed. The team only made 19 races last year because of qualifying shortcomings. This year there are at least nine new teams that are better funded, all fighting for the final eight starting spots in each race. Most races will have 50 or more cars on the entry list, and 90% will have more resources than Furniture Row.

One of the best chances to qualify is actually at Daytona. The Twin 150’s give him the chance to drive his way to a starting spot, and Wallace has a decent record on plate tracks in his career. He has 8 top tens at Daytona in his Busch career and 10 top tens at Talladega combined in Busch and Cup. Wallace is also traditionally strong on the short tracks and flat one milers, this will have to be a point of emphasis for the team.

While the odds are against Furniture Row, there are a few positives to cling to. The team and crew will have more experience in their second season in Cup. Wallace will also focus his full attention to the team instead of splitting time between the two series. Wallace will need all of his skill and experience to improve on 2006. While it’s hard not to pull for Wallace to succeed, realistically it will be tough to make more than ten races in 2007. Once in the race, Wallace will see that the car is running at the finish.