A few Random Thoughts from yesterday's race.

-Everyone will remember the wild finish and the multiple wrecks in the final 25 laps. That's probably good, because the first 175 laps were very boring. Maybe as boring as next Sunday's race at California.

-Don't get mad at Kevin Harvick for “stealing” Mark Martin's win. He was doing his job. Everyone else wrecked on the final lap trying to pass Martin too. As much as Martin deserves to win a Daytona 500 (and a Cup for that matter), no one was going to simply sit back and hand it to Martin. And there's no doubt Martin would be upset if anyone did sit back and serve him the win.

-People complain the caution should have been thrown. If NASCAR throws the caution, people complain that a good finish was spoiled. Damned if you do...

-In the last two years, Hendrick won five of the eight restrictor plate races. they often placed multiple drivers in the top ten. They were easily the top plate program in NASCAR. Granted yesterday's race placed a greater emphasis on handling than pure horsepower, but aside from Kyle Busch, Hendrick's big guns were never a factor. Yes, Ginn and Haas cars have Hendrick power, and were strong yesterday, but they obviously found a package that worked better than the four in-house Hendrick cars.

-Three commercials really stuck out as entertaining. The Tony Stewart Sunoco commercial where he goes to the grocery store with a fan (and climbs a shelf). Denny Hamlin racing a scooter at a retirement home. Jimmie Johnson showing his Nextel Cup to Elliot Sadler.

-Worst in-race feature: Domino's Hot lap.Fox compared the times of the top five qualifiers on an arbitrary lap in the middle of the race. It is pretty meaningless at most tracks, but a fast lap at a plate race is almost as meaningless as qualifying in the top five. It was even worse when the “winner” of the Hot Lap was Jeff Gordon, who was running 28^th at the time.

-Several full-time teams outside the top 35 had pretty good days. Joe Nemechek finished 7^th, Johnny Sauter 15^th, and Sterling Marlin 16^th. Dale Jarrett is secure for the first six races but helped his cause with a solid 21^st.

-Brian Vickers, Paul Menard and A.J. Allmendinger missed the Daytona 500, but at least they are still ahead of Michael Waltrip in the standings. Waltrip earned -23 points for his efforts Sunday.

-Lamest Quote: Mike Joy, “Can you hold your breath for 33 more laps?” Mike, that sounded a lot like something Bill Weber would ask. It's also easier to breathe with so many commercial breaks.

-I skipped the pre-race coverage, but was pleased with the race coverage. Fox didn't dwell on the cheating issues too much, and DW didn't even babble about Toyotas in excess.

-Maybe this is nitpicking. On ESPN's ticker it reads, “Kevin Harvick wins NASCAR Nextel Cup Daytona 500.” It's the biggest motorsports event in the US, and I think even the most clueless sports fan knows what sport the Daytona 500 is in. ESPN would never have to tell people that the Cardinals won the Major League Baseball World Series.

NASCAR through the lens of the wife

It’s not only because of Valentine’s Day that I say this, but my wife is pretty smart. She doesn’t really follow sports on her own time, but she is married to me. By default she has graduated beyond an elementary knowledge of sports. For instance she can identify the majority of the cars and drivers in Nextel Cup. From time to time I like to ask my wife what she thinks about current topics in sports. I simply present the facts without my opinion or editorial. It’s amazing how often she comes up with the most sensible answer. For example, I once explained how the BCS system worked in college football. She paused and then aksed, “Why don’t they just do a playoff? Wouldn’t that be easier?” Yes it would dear, yes it would.

Yesterday I told her what happened to Michael Waltrip and the other violators (she loves Kasey Kahne and Elliot Sadler, so the news hit hard for her). I explained that they ejected the respective crew chief/team director/man that sits atop the pit box, and also penalized Waltrip 100 points. Her first question was, “Why don’t they just kick the drivers out of the race?”

I think that echoes what many people think about this latest episode.

Other Thoughts:

With all of the cheating prior to Daytona, I’ve really been wondering what the motivation is. Last year it was Chad Knaus, in 2005 Todd Berrier was suspended for actions at Talladega. Gaining an edge in qualifying for a restrictor plate race makes little sense. Especially when the penalty last year was a 4 race suspension and loss of points.

I don’t like speculating and I have no concrete idea why they cheat. From what I can figure, there are two points worth mentioning. One, teams wouldn’t risk a 4 race suspension unless there was a gain greater than a fast qualifying run at a track where starting position is worthless. There has to be a good motive why teams are spending time and money on cheating. It can’t be as simple as what shows on the surface. No one would risk penalty for mere defiance.

The second point deals with the “why”. My thought is that teams are using Speedweeks as a giant test to see what will sneak past inspection in order to use these tricks at future tracks. It is possible that they try things at Daytona or Talladega for the exact reason that qualifying doesn’t matter. If something is caught, they go to the back of the line. If something makes it through, maybe a team uses a qualifying trick at a track where qualifying is more important.

Instead of my speculation, I would love to see a credential-carrying reported get the reason from the garage. On a related note, is anyone being productive today during the Duels?

Surprises, quasi-surprises and other thoughts

This morning there is a near consensus among NASCAR writers and bloggers. David Gillialand's pole win is a surprise. I've even seen it dubbed a Cinderella story. Did everyone forget that Gilliland won the last restrictor plate pole at Talladega last October? Or that Yates Engines have captured six of the last nine poles at Talladega and Daytona? RYR's performance has declined in the past few seasons, but the one area that is always top notch is their plate program. It is somewhat surprising that Boris Said qualified fifth, but he won the July pole last year. I thought the bigger surprise was how well the Ganassi cars fared. Both Juan-Pablo Montoya and David Stremme were fast, although something happened with Reed Sorenson's car during the second lap.

-The other prevalent thought among writers and bloggers is that the Bud Shootout proved Tony Stewart will have a big season. I agree Stewart will be a threat in 2007, but not because he won the Shootout. The win enforced that he's a great plate driver and had the best backup car among the field. It's the first action during the season and people love drawing conclusions, but the Bud Shootout has very little bearing on the season. In fact the Daytona 500 itself has little impact on the shape of the season. Races 2-8 will be the real barometer. California, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Texas will show who has the best intermediate package. Bristol, Martinsville and Phoenix will show who did their homework on the Car of Tomorrow. We'll hear plenty about how Stewart has momentum or the Daytona 500 is now a title threat, but ignore it. Jimmie Johnson didn't win or lose the Cup last year because he won the 500. He won because his team was good everywhere.

-I can understand Michael Waltrip's need to push the rules envelope to find a speed advantage. I never understand teams inside the top 35 that try to cheat at restrictor plate tracks, especially during Daytona 500 qualifying. Unless Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth really wanted to win the pole, there is no point in cheating. First, they are assured a place in the race. Second, single-car qualifying beyond the top two spots has almost zero bearing on your starting position for the 500. And third, aside from pit selection, the starting position means very little in a plate race. Yet people constantly try to get away with modifications every year.

-Fox's new 3D model to show crashes sounded good on paper. Then they used it during the last lap crash in the Bud Shootout. It showed nothing that the on-board cameras didn't. In fact it was about as cutting edge as the commercial that re-enacts the 1979 Daytona 500. Maybe it will improve during the season.

-In one weekend, I'm already tired of the DirecTV ad with Dale Jr. Ditto for the Subway ad with Tony Stewart. Each ad must have played 10 times each over two days. Stewart (and Michael Strahan) has to introduce his full name, but Jared Fogel just says, "Hi, I'm Jared." Does that bother anyone else? Who is the bigger star here? It's time for some new NASCAR commercials.

Break Out the Antacid

For a lot of teams Speedweeks this year is not very fun. Some very high profile, not to mention well-sponsored teams are not going make the Daytona 500. After single car qualifying, there are now 39 drivers locked in for next Sunday: the top 35 in owner points, Boris Said, Sterling Marlin and Johnny Sauter based on speed, plus Dale Jarrett's champion's provisional. Quick math shows there's only four spots left for the Daytona 500. Among the 22 teams on the bubble, nine have plans to run the entire schedule. Most have sponsorship, including prominent companies like NAPA, Dominos, Menards, and Red Bulll. At least five are leaving on Thursday. That means several teams will spend the next three days worrying and working on their cars to find more speed. It also means working on their answer to sponsors for why they missed NASCAR's highest profile race.

Is it possible that Thursday's Duel 150's could have more intrigue than Sunday's race? That's a stretch, but for a lot of teams it will set a tone for the season. Miss a race and it makes it much harder to enter the top 35 in points. Within the greater storyline to make the race, there are several smaller plots. Among the cars competing for the transfer spots, there are three formerDaytona 500 winners. Of the eight Toyota entries, only Jarrett and Dave Blaney have guaranteed spots. Two are certain to miss the race, but based on qualifying speeds, it will be more. Neither Toyota driver in the BudShooutout (Brian Vickers , Jarrett) did anything to show they are better in the draft than qualifying. Another problem is that one of the fastest Toyota's was Mike Skinner, a part-time entry. If Skinner makes the race, but teammate JeremyMayfield doesn't, how will Bill Davis handle that?

The two highest finishing drivers in each heat will make the race, with a few exceptions. If any of the three top qualifiers (Said, Sauter or Marlin) finish in the first two transfer spots, the next fastest qualifier makes the race, which is Jeremy Mayfield, then David Reutimann . The same would happen with the past Champion provisional. If Jarrett captures on the the transfer spots, then the provisional would fall to Bill Elliott.

Handicapping the field, Jeremy Mayfield is in good shape in Heat 1. Ward Burton and Bill Elliott have both won Daytona 500's, but can't overcome the limits of their cars. AJ Allmendinger has one plate race in the Truck Series and Team Red Bull is yet to qualify for a Cup race. It's a real long shot for Allmendinger. It is hard enough for a rookie to get drafting help, let alone a rookie with almost no stock car experience. Michael Waltrip's car was impounded after qualifying. Apparently it's not an infraction, but it does cost the team time that they can't work on the car.Waltrip is a good plate racer who is capable of hooking up with the right drafting partners. It's a big help to have his teammate Jarrett in his heat.

In heat 2, David Reutimann is a rookie, but has raced in 6 plate races in the Truck and Busch series. He was one of the fastest Toyotas and has the best chance of the Toyotas to make the field. DEI traditionally has stronger cars in race trim which should allow Paul Menard to compete better than his qualifying time suggests. JoeNemechek will hope for the same thing, and Ginn racing does have Hendrick power to boos that effort. Brian Vickers is a good plate racer but the Toyotas haven't been very strong so far. Unless he learned something on Saturday night, his chances do not look very good. The X factor as far as full-time teams are concerned is Mike Skinner. He has made two of the last threeDaytona 500's as a part time driver and was one of the quicker cars on Sunday.

All the preparation, speed and drafting partners still might not be enough. Scott Riggs had a mechanical issue during qualifying and then a problem in the pits cost him his chance in the 500. Menard suffered a flat tire in his heat last year. The unknown only adds more pressure and anxiety for the drivers leading up to Thursday afternoon. Obviously missing the first race is not a fatal blow, look at Riggs for exhibit A. The problem is there will be 12 full-time teams next week at California all trying to make the race all over again.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Greg Biffle

Greg Biffle Age: 37
2 wins, 8 top 5's, 14 top 10's, 19 top 15's
Avg Start: 14.4, Avg Finish: 18.8
Points Standing: 13^th Driver Rating: 94.9
#16 Ameriquest Ford Crew Chief: Pat Tryson

After winning a Cup best six races and finishing 2^nd in the points, Greg Biffle was on the short list of Nextel Cup contenders. Then the 2006 season got off to a rotten start. Biffle led laps in the first ten races except for Martinsville, but only had one top ten finish to show for it. He packed an entire season of bad luck in the first ten races: Crashes at Daytona and Texas. Blown engines at California and Talladega. Flat tires at Atlanta and Bristol. Ran out of fuel at Phoenix.

Biffle began getting his deserved finishes with a fourth at Richmond, followed by a win at Darlington. It was his second straight win at one of the toughest tracks in NASCAR. It also spurred a run of seven straight top ten finishes. The hot streak continued into July. After a 3^rd place at Loudon Biffle entered the top 10 for the first time all season. It wouldn't last. He suffered last lap at incidents at Pocono and Indianapolis to effectively end his chances of making the Chase. He only scored two top tens in last seven races leading up to the Chase.

The final ten races the focus shifted towards 2007. Biffle suffered three more DNF's, giving him six for the year. That marked the most since his rookie season in 2003. He still managed three top fives during the Chase, including his third straight win at Homestead. It wasn't the season many expected, but Biffle still managed to close on a strong note.

Biffle did have a slow start, but the problem was not always performance. His 94.9 driver rating was eighth best compared to his 13^th place point finish. The driver rating gives a better indication of how he ran at times. He was third in laps led, and won multiple races for the third straight season. Despite his numbers hinting at strong runs, he was not getting the deserved finishes. As the season wound down, it was obvious that Roush was in transition.

The theme for Biffle and Roush Racing in 2007 is change. After a sluggish 2006 season, changes were expected. Pat Tryson moved from the #6 car to Biffle's team to replace departing Doug Richert. Tryson was also allowed to assemble a new crew from the best members of the two teams. A change was needed, but was nudging Richert out the door the right move? Biffle and Richert combined for ten wins over the past three seasons.

Talent-wise, there is no drop off from Richert to Tryson. Tryson is a top crew chief in his own right. He captained Mark Martin to three straight Chase berths. While the talent level is the same, chemistry with different drivers is never a guarantee. Biffle's definition of loose is surely different than Martin's. It may take time for the new pairing to jell and perfect their communication.

After an almost flawless 2005 season for Roush, things didn't go as smoothly last year. All five of the Roush cars slumped at some point during the season. Excluding two wins by Matt Kenseth, Roush struggled too often at the 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, the company's unquestioned strength in past years.

Biffle has incredible car control, making him great at qualifying(15.5 career starting position) and also capable of winning at almost every track. He is best when tracks are slippery and have less grip. His ascent at the Cup level coincided with Roush Racing's dominance at the intermediate tracks. His wheelhouse is tracks like California, Michigan, Texas, and Darlington. That doesn't mean he is strictly a speedway star. He has a restrictor plate win, is excellent at Bristol and has had very good runs at Richmond, Phoenix and Loudon.

Despite Roush's struggles, the team still won six races and sent two drivers to the Chase. They have some of the deepest resources in Cup. It's a good bet that the teams will correct some of the problems from last season. With other teams expanding and Toyota entering Cup, the Competition is tougher than ever. Roush and Biffle have a smaller margin of error for early season troubles.

The biggest key for Biffle's season is how quickly he can connect with Tryson. He will have the best tools available at Roush to help him return to the Chase. Biffle is again a contender for the Nextel Cup. If the cars are improved Biffle should win at least three wins. With two additional Chase transfer spots, Biffle will also have less trouble making the Chase. Once there is a threat to win it all. If he does that, he'd also be the first driver to win Championships at all three of NASCAR's major levels.

2007 Driver Previews: Brian Vickers

Brian Vickers Age: 23
1 win, 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 14 top 15’s
Avg start: 16.8 Avg Finish: 19.2
Points Standing: 15th Driver Rating: 76.3
#83 Red Bull Toyota Crew Chief: Doug Richert

If Brian Vickers got his fortune told this time last year, it would go something like this:
“After four years driving for Hendrick Motorsports you will leave for a brand new Toyota team. Then you will be banned from team meetings and given the cold shoulder by teammates. On the bright you will finally get your first Cup win. The bad news is it will be one of the most unpopular wins in recent years, coming at the expense of a teammate, plus the most famous driver in the sport. Other than that, it should be a pretty uneventful year. Good Luck.”

That is Vicker’s season in a nutshell. He had a lot of positive things happen, but they were usually overshadowed by a negative consequence. To his credit, Vickers handled things with maturity and tried his best to focus on racing. The biggest story for his season was his announcement he was leaving Hendrick Motorsports. Shortly after he signed with the upstart Team Red Bull.

Vickers' 2006 season was solid but not spectacular. He scored his first win and improved two positions in the points, but it was a very similar season to 2005. He would have some nice runs coupled with several mediocre ones. In fact he didn't have back to back top tens until the 29th and 30th races. As the season progressed his finishes did improve overall. The first 18 races his average finish was 20.9, while his average in the second half was 17.5. It was even better during the Chase when he averaged 14.8, including four top tens. The other improvement forVickers was finishing races. He had a mere 2 DNF's, down from four in 2005, and seven in 2004.

2007 might be the most challenging season yet for Vickers. A brand new Toyota team has lots of questions to answer. One big asset is his crew chief, Doug Richert. Richert helped Greg Biffle won 10 races in the last three years and is highly regarded in the garage. His experience dates back to working on Dale Earnhardt's team in the early 80's. Pairing a veteran crew chief with young driver is a popular and often successful combination in Cup.

Richert's first task is ensuring Vickers makes every race. the good news is Vickers is an excellent qualifier. In 2006 he had 14 top ten starts including one pole at Texas. His career average start is 16.0. With no owners points to start this will be paramount in 2007. Vickers must make the first five races based on time. He shouldn’t have a problem, but things can happen in qualifying. A flat tire, a bobble in a turn or a bad setup could foil the best plans. A missed race will not ruin his season, but would be a setback.

At Hendrick, Vickers was able to gather information and advice from established veterans like Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. His new team will not have that luxury. Vickers teammate is rookie AJ Allmendinger. Making a switch from open-wheel racing to stock cars presents a huge challenge for Allmendinger. That places any expectations for success in 2007 squarely on Vickers.

Vickers' specialty is 2.5 mile tracks. He is an excellent plate racer at both Daytona and Talladega. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. His average finish at Pocono is 8.5, including three top five finishes. Vickers is still refining his skills at short tracks, but he does excel at the 1-mile flat tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

The move marks a fresh start for Vickers. He took a lot of criticism in his three years in the #25 car. The switch was widely questioned in the media and assumed it was based on money. Surely millions of dollars played a part, but there are plenty of reasons for Vickers to switch teams. Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that Vickers is only 23. He is a talented driver that has dealt with a lot in his young career. He won a Busch Championship before he could legally drink Busch beer. He endured the Hendrick plane crash in 2004. As long as he was at Hendrick he would be fourth priority. A switch to Toyota gives Vickers the chance to be the number one driver and be recognized for his talent instead of a cog in the Hendrick machine. It's a bold move, but at least he has the chance to shine on his own. Now the rest is up to Vickers.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Martin Truex Jr

Martin Truex Jr Age: 26
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 5 top 10's, 11 top 15's
Avg start: 21.2 Avg finish: 20.8
Points standing: 19 Driver Rating: 71.3
#1 Bass Pro Shops Chevy Crew Chief: Kevin Manion

A year ago Martin Truex Jr was the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Some writers went as far as predicting he'd make the Chase. After two straight Busch championships, the predictions made sense. After running seven Cup races in 2005, Truex was more than ready for full time Cup action. A funny thing happened, Truex had a typical rookie season filled with mistakes, run-ins with veterans, and crashes mixed in with some good runs.

Truex spent the first half of the season running between 15^th and 20^th. He had one top ten in the first 18 races. He had several nice runs, some with deserving finishes (8^th at Texas) and some not (finished 22^nd at Phoenix after running out of fuel). One of his toughest days came at the spring Bristol race. Fighting to get a lap back, he was spun by Jeff Gordon. After some minor repairs, he returned to the track in search of Gordon. After trading paint with Gordon, Tony Stewart dumpedTruex for holding up the lead-lap cars. His day was done and a lesson was painfully learned.

One of the highlights of his season came in the Busch series. In April he won the Busch race at Talladega in a Dale Earnhardt Sr. paint scheme. It was also his third straight Busch win at Talladega. Unfortunately he was caught in an early crash in the Cup race, proving again that momentum doesn't really exist race to race. The following week he lost an engine, his thirdDNF in five races.

Aside from bad luck and crashes, one of the biggest challenges for the #1 team was a lack of experience. Crew Chief Kevin "Bono" Manion was with Truex for the last two years in Busch, but had never been a crew chief at the Cup level. It took the team almost the entire first half of the season to accumulate enough notes to figure out fast setups.DEI has one of the top Busch programs, but is middle of the pack at the Cup level. This also makes for a tougher transition when the equipment is not elite. While they waited for the cars to get more speed,Truex still managed to finish races. From Darlington to the second California race, Truex completed 99% of the laps.

The second half of was a big improvement. The overall results didn't show immediately, but Truex and Manion started figuring out some tracks the second time around. The speed finally improved during the Chase. Truex scored a sixth at Dover, an 11th at Kansas and a 5th at Talladega. He ran inside the top 10 the whole day at Atlanta before a crash with 19 laps to go. The following week Truex was running fifth with two laps to go when Scott Riggs crashed and Truex was caught in it. He wound up 11th. Truex's finest race was the finale at Homestead. He finished second, led 27 laps and had a driver rating of 111.4.

The final ten races showed what everyone expected from Truex. With his late season success, he finished 19th in the standings. Overall it was a solid debut while also showing a glimpse of what Truex can do with good cars. Good cars will be the key in 2007. Truex and Manion have good chemistry and now have experience to build on when adjusting the car. It's up to DEI to continue to produce, and improve their engines and chassis. Paul Menard will drive a third full time car. That could pull personnel and resources away from the #1 team. Menard will have to qualify for at least the first five races, meaning extra attention will be given to his cars and engines. There is also the issue ofDEI's foggy management picture.

One of Truex's strengths is taking care of equipment. Although he had 5 DNF's, he was second among rookies with 21 lead lap finishes. One thing Truex must control is his emotions. The Bristol incident illustrated how aggressive Truex can get. He had a similar run-in at a Richmond Busch race in 2005. Every driver has days of struggle and frustration, but losing control is an easy way to turn a 21st finish into a 41st.

DEI's strength in 2006 was their intermediate program, although Truex is capable of running well at almost any track. He is strong at plate tracks and should get more help this season in the draft. He is also strong at Dover, where he won twice in the Busch series and scored a 6th in Cup. He won the Mexico City Busch road race in 2005, and has also run well at short tracks like Bristol and Richmond. Although his driving style is similar to teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr, he is a superior qualifier. A pole win is a real possibility next season.

As long as Truex gets the proper support he has the talent to run up front. Making the Chase is a long shot this season, but Truex should improve his finishes in year 2. A top 15 points finish along with 5 top fives and 10-15 top tens is the likely forecast forTruex. A win is not likely, but not out of the question either. Maybe the best news is that expectations for Truex are returning to previous heights.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Elliott Sadler

Elliott Sadler Age: 31
0 wins, 1 top 5, 7 top 10’s, 11 top 15’s
Avg start: 17.5 Avg finish: 23.1
Points: 22nd Driver Rating: 69.2
#19 Dodge Dealers/UAW Dodge Crew Chief: Josh Browne

Things happen quickly at the Cup level in NASCAR. For evidence look at the last year and a half for Elliott Sadler.
After making the Chase and winning two races in 2004, Sadler spent the first half of 2005 inside the top 10. Then he went without a top ten finish for ten races, dropping him from Chase contention. The aero issues, prominent in 2006, began surfacing in 2005. Further, Sadler’s crew chief Todd Parrott was moved to Dale Jarrett’s car for the final ten races, before Parrott moved to Petty Enterprises. This planted a seed of frustration for Sadler.

One year ago Sadler won his qualifying heat at Daytona and finished fourth in the Daytona 500. It was a nice start to a season that soured quickly. It was evident that Robert Yates Racing had fallen behind on the intermediate tracks that comprise the bulk of the schedule. Sadler and Dale Jarrett could compete at Daytona and Talladega along with the short tracks, but once the tour visited Texas or Charlotte they were back markers. In 22 races with Yates Sadler didn’t have a top ten at an intermediate track. The frustration had grown for not only Sadler but teammate and close friend Dale Jarrett. When Jarrett announced plans in May to leave Robert Yates Racing after 2006 for Toyota, Sadler also began researching his options with other teams.

After three and a half seasons at Robert Yates, Elliott Sadler moved to Evernham Motorsports in August. He left on a good note, finishing 7th at Watkins Glen in his final race for Yates. He also was reluctant to publicly discuss his parting, instead trying to make the spilt as amicable as possible.

Things began well in the #19 car too. Sadler started 2nd and finished 10th in his first race at Michigan. The strong car was reportedly due to Evernham’s personal battle with the departed Jeremy Mayfield. Whatever the case, it was still the first top ten for the #19 team. More importantly the finish returned the team to the top 35 in owner’s points.

The finishes didn’t necessarily show improvement, but Sadler’s driver ratings in the first six races averaged 83.8, with a high of 95.1 at Dover. It’s not numbers to get excited about, but much steadier than the car had run prior to Sadler. As the year progressed, the team switched to testing mode and the results suffered. He didn't score a top ten in the final eight races.

Sadler joined a team that had a brand new crew in 2006. The end of the year was spent getting Sadler on the same page as Browne and the team. It is hard to gauge the team’s progress based solely on the results. What, and how much, the team learned at the end of 2006 should show up in the first four races in 2007.

Both Sadler and Dale Jarrett felt the largest need at Yates was more engineering support. Now that both have moved to new teams, it’s interesting that each of their new crew chiefs have engineering backgrounds. How Sadler and team director Josh Browne communicate will be a huge part of any success in 2007.

In good equipment Sadler is a proven front runner. He has won at Bristol, California and Texas, but is also strong at Martinsville and restrictor plate tracks Daytona and Talladega. He has also had several strong runs at Dover, leading 186 laps, although his finishes haven’t always justified the good runs. Evernham’s intermediate program was one of the best in 2006, winning 6 races and 8 poles at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. With a full season, Sadler should resume running up front at the aero-sensitive speedways. Sadler has also developed into a very good qualifier with seven career poles.

Sadler made the Chase in 2004 and spent the first half of 2005 in the top 10, based on patiently finishing races. A monumental swoon in the summer cost him a second Chase berth and Sadler is yet to regain that consistency. His first step is finishing races. He had 3 combined DNF’s in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he suffered 7.

A new team with a different approach is exactly what Sadler was looking for. Now that he has his wish, it is up to him to get the results. Evernham is an improving organization but there are still weaknesses. Sadler is a proven driver that could surprise in 2007. A win is possible, but not expected. A realistic goal is 3-4 top 5’s and 10-15 top ten finishes. He has an outside chance at making the Chase, but realistically will probably need another year for his team to jell.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dale Jarrett

Dale Jarrett Age: 50
0 wins, 1 top 5, 4 top 10's, 10 top 15's
Avg start: 28.2, Avg Finish: 22.7
Points rank: 23^rd Driver Rating: 57.5
#44 UPS Toyota Crew Chief: Matt Borland

2006 did not go the way anyone at Robert Yates Racing had hoped. For Dale Jarrett it was a season of struggles and transition but also hope. Jarrett's on-track performance was one of the worst seasons of his 22 year career. Four top tens was the lowest season total since 1989. He scored at least seven per year from 1990-2005. He went winless for the second season in three years. Things were rough on the track, but Jarrett does have a fresh start to look forward to in 2007.

After 12 years with Robert Yates Racing Jarrett will drive for Michael Waltrip Racing, helping to introduce Toyota to the Cup stage. This presents a new challenge for the 50 year old Jarrett. It's a new manufacturer, new organization, a new crew chief (again) and maybe a new perspective for Jarrett. While that is a lot of changes, Jarrett will keep UPS as sponsor. Keeping his same sponsor since 2001 guarantees the popular, “He's going to drive the truck” ad campaign will continue.

On the track the numbers spelled struggle for Yates and Jarrett. His season driver rating was 57.5, 29th among full time drivers. A fourth at Kansas was his only top five of the season. Even that was more the result of fuel mileage than a great run in a strong car. On the other hand he finished 23^rd in the point standings. This means he didn't run well, but avoided trouble and finished races higher than he deserved. Some of this slump is attributed to Jarrett, much of the problems fell on the Yates team. They trailed the other powerhouse teams on every track except Daytona and Talladega.

The season was especially rough for Robert and Doug Yates. Coinciding with Jarrett's announced exit, Crew chief Slugger Labbe was also suspended four races for a sway bar infraction at Richmond. He was later released from Yates, along with fellow crew chief Tommy Baldwin and General Manager Eddie D'Hondt. Yates' other driver Elliott Sadler also left mid season for Evernham motorsports. 2006 was also the first season in his 18 years that Robert Yates didn't score a victory.

Jarrett did enjoy some highlights among the frustration. He started things off with a tenth place finish at Daytona and followed that with a ninth at Atlanta three races later. The weekend of the Darlington race in May, Jarrett announced he would drive for Waltrip in 2007. He finished 21^st or better in the first ten races, including two top tens and four top fifteens. After the announcement, Jarrett's performance sunk. Except for a 20^th at Michigan, he didn't finish better than 22^nd for the next 13 races. He did finish strong with six top fifteen finishes in the final 12 races. It wasn't a dream ending for his Yates tenure, but he didn't mail it in either.

Heading to 2007 there are two big questions to ask. Can Jarrett still get up on the wheel or will he enjoy his golden parachute? Can Waltrip Racing provide consistent cars for Jarrett?

Crew chief Matt Borland left Ryan Newman's team at Penske to join Toyota and Jarrett. Jarrett's biggest complaint at RYR was the lack of engineers. Borland might place the greatest emphasis on engineering of any crew chief on tour. This is often a good trait, but last year it didn't serve Newman and and Borland well. They wasted the beginning of the season and presumably the offseason on perfecting the 2004 Dodge Intrepid. Borland will be Jarrett's sixth crew chief in three seasons. The addition of Borland and his fresh perspective should help reignite Jarrett.

He is assured a place in the field thanks to his Champion's provisional. He and Dave Blaney are the only Toyota cars with a guaranteed spot for the first five races. Jarrett should have no problem entering the top 35 and staying there the entire season. That means he can focus less on qualifying and more on the actual races. Unless the Camry proves totally flaky, Jarrett should be able to score 5-7 top tens. In the right equipment Jarrett is still one of the top restrictor plate drivers. He also has impressive numbers at Michigan, Atlanta and Bristol. He has won at 16 different tracks. His best chance for top tens are at these three track

Jarrett is one of the most popular and well-respected drivers in the sport. The tentative plan is to drive for two more seasons and then retire. Of course, drivers have changed plans before. Jarrett is past competing for championships, but given the right car at the right race he can still vie for wins and top fives.

NASCAR Driver Preview: David Gilliland

David Gilliland			Age: 30
#38 M&M"s Ford			Crew Chief: Todd Parrott
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
14	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points	Driver Rating
1	22.1	28.3	42nd	53.4

Raise your hand if you knew who David Gilliland was before 2006? Put your hand down, liar. Prior to June 17th, very few had heard of the 30 year old from California who got his start in the Southwest Series, one of NASCAR's regional series. He started the year with a partial Busch schedule with underfunded Clay Andrews Racing. After struggling to qualify for races, Gilliland not only qualified, but started 4th at Kentucky in June. He went on to win in the biggest surprise of the year. It's possibly one of the biggest surprises in NASCAR history.

What may have been more impressive happened the following week at Sonoma. In another testament to his talent he qualified an equally underfunded #72 car for the Sonoma Cup race. It didn't garner as much attention as his Busch win, but it was an amazing feat. Consider that it was Gilliland's Nextel Cup debut on a road course and was driving against road course experts like Ron Fellows, Boris Said, Scott Pruett, P.J. Jones and Brian Simo. He qualified 31st (Simo failed to qualify) and finished two laps down in 32nd.

By August Gilliland was hired by Robert Yates Racing to replace Elliott Sadler. In less than a season, he had gone from scraping together money and attempting Busch races to a guaranteed ride in Nextel Cup. It was too unbelievable for a Disney movie.

After a rocky start filled with flat tires and several crashes, Gilliland and Parrott began to mesh. Even in the short span of fourteen races, the progress was noticeable.The first six starts his average finish was 34.8. The last eight starts had an average finish of 22.9, including two top fifteens (Talladega, Atlanta). He also ran in the top ten for the majority of the finale at Homestead before a crash.

Gilliland also showed his strength in qualifying, by starting in the top ten on three occasions. He won his first pole at Talladega in October. It was the third straight Talladega pole for the 38 car. Once the race started, Gilliland stayed out of the way and finished a season high 15th.

Yates has done a great job of surrounding Gilliland with tools to succeed. Todd Parrott is one of the best crew chiefs in the sport. He made an instant impact at Petty Enterprises last year. For all the problems RYR has had, they are still in better shape than Petty. Gilliland was a crew chief for his fatherButch, early in his career. It's a unique skill among drivers and no doubt has helped his communication with Parrott.

It was the right decision to insert Gilliland in the #38 car as soon as possible. Running for Rookie of the Year might have been nice, but it can't make up for the extra eight races Gilliland was able to run in '06. Gilliland had never raced at several of the Cup tracks, so every one of his 4,163 laps was invaluable experience. It was the same plan that accelerated Carl Edwards' path in 2004 when he debuted at the August Michigan race. Obviously Edwards entered with a dominant team, but the theory remains the same. Spending time building chemistry with Parrott puts them ahead of the rookies that take over at Daytona.

Another help in Gilliland's learning curve arrives in his new teammate, Ricky Rudd. Pairing Gilliland with a veteran, especially someone as experienced as Rudd is ideal for the young driver. Having a sounding board in Dale Jarrett and now Rudd, is a huge luxury for Gilliland and his progress. While Yates' situation looked dire this summer, they never hit rock bottom. A similar slide happened at Richard Childress Racing, resulting in significant changes. 2006 may have been that wakeup call for Yates.

The other big key to accelerating Gilliland's progress is running a part-time Busch schedule with Team Rensi Motorsports. Additional seat time, especially at unfamiliar tracks will help immensely. While Rensi isn't a Busch series power, that obvioulsy won't faze Gilliland.

Gilliland's Talladega pole qualified him for the 2007 Bud Shootout. It's a perfect way to start the season, with an exhibition race to gain more comfort. The strongest part of Yates' program is unquestionably restrictor plate races. He will certainly have a top ten car come Daytona. Yates should have a pretty good gauge on the seaon in the next three races at California, Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Looking towards next year, 20-25th in the points wouldn't be out of the question. Jarrett finished 23rd last year and it seems reasonable that Gilliland can match that. Gilliland's 53.4 driver rating was very close to Jarrett's 57.4. There is no reason why Gilliland can't improve on that. His strength figures to be speedways, especially the west coast races where he has lots of experience. Bristol and Martinsville will be educational. There will be mistakes, frustrating crashes and failures, but there is also great hope for Yates and Gilliland. Four to six top ten finishes is a realistic goal. Of course Gilliland has always exceeded expectations before, so you never know.

Past Previews:
Kenny Wallace