NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart Age: 35
5 wins, 15 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, 24 top 15’s
Avg Start: 16.7 Avg Finish: 13.8
Points Standing: 11^th Driver Rating: 97.0
#20 Home Depot Chevy Crew Chief: Greg Zipadelli

For Tony Stewart, no season is uneventful, quiet or simple. By those criteria, it was a pretty normal season for Smoke. He won five races, stirred up controversy, fractured his shoulder blade, and missed the Chase.

Stewart’s season began in typical fashion with both success and controversy. A week after warning drivers of excessive bump drafting, it was Stewart getting penalized for ramming into Matt Kenseth at the Daytona 500. Despite damage, Stewart still finished 5^th. The following week he led 28 laps before losing an engine late. He led laps in the first nine races, but only one win at Martinsville for his efforts. It was still a solid start and many predicted he would cruise into the Chase and vie for a third title.

A funny thing happened on the way to engraving his trophy. Stewart’s summer was inconsistent and he failed to make the Chase. Stewart’s regular season was very similar to Greg Biffle’s, the driver who finished second to Stewart in 2005. Both ran very well in the majority of races, but often finished much lower than deserved. Cracks began showing in the spring at Charlotte. After two hard crashes in both the Busch and Cup races, Stewart fractured his shoulder blade. This caused great discomfort the following week at Dover. He started the race, but was replaced by Ricky Rudd during the first caution. Rudd finished 25^th.

One of the more entertaining images during the season was Stewart pounding dents out of his car after an early crash at Michigan. It was only three weeks after he injured his shoulder. He defended his trophy at the summer Daytona race, his second win of the season, but then things fell apart in July.

He was in the top five at Chicago before running out of fuel to finish 32^nd. The following week at Loudon he was leading the race and looked to have a stout car. Then he scuffled with Ryan Newman when Newman tried to get a lap back from Stewart. Both cars crashed and it was Stewart’s second straight finish in the 30’s. The following week at Pocono he again got in a dust-up, this time spinning Clint Bowyer. The crash also collected Carl Edwards, who retaliated by spinning Stewart entering the pits. Stewart was penalized but did recover to finish 7^th, but it ended a tumultuous month.

Suddenly he went from a lock for the Chase to sitting on the bubble. The final blow came at Richmond where he crashed his primary car in practice. He struggled during the race, finished 18^thth in 2005 but 6 in 2006. and barely missed the Chase. There were plenty of missed chances during the first 26 races. Stewart had two finishes worse than 30

Reduced to driving for wins, Stewart was free to experiment a little during the Chase. He won at Kansas by gambling on fuel. Then the team found a fast setup for both Atlanta and its cousin track Texas, where he won both races. Stewart had five top fives during the Chase including wins 3,4 and 5.

Aside from the disappointment of missing the Chase, Stewart’s season was impressive. He scored 5 wins for the second straight season, led the most laps, was third in top fives, second in earnings and fifth in driver rating. After a nearly flawless 2005, his 2006 effort was a pretty decent encore.

Stewart will begin 2007 like he did in 2006, a favorite to win the Cup and considered one of the best drivers in the world. The #20 team has every ingredient necessary for success. He can win anywhere; in fact there are only four current tracks where he hasn’t won. Joe Gibbs is one of the top three or four organizations in Cup and Greg Zipadelli is the longest tenured crew chief. It all points to one of the elite teams in NASCAR.

One of the tracks Stewart hasn’t won at is Talladega, but it might be one of his best. He has six second place finishes, 8 top fives and an average finish of 11.9. A win at Talladega or in the Daytona 500 would definitely add another highlight to his impressive resume.

No driver has repeated since Jeff Gordon nearly ten years ago and for good reason. There are more requirements and commitments for the current champion than other drivers. This can drain a driver and will ultimately hurt performance at some level. Without this burden Stewart could have another stellar and consistent season.

Maybe the only question mark for Stewart is the Car of Tomorrow. Gibbs and Stewart should cope well with the brand new car, but it is such an unknown that there is a chance to slip. Stewart can certainly drive any type of car on any type of track, so the new body type won’t be a problem granted Gibbs gives him adjustable cars. The only other question mark is his emotions, which can cost him at times.

Stewart will make the Chase this year. Despite last year’s struggles he still almost made the playoff field. With 12 spots, plus a few more points for each win, Stewart should coast into the Chase. Once he gets in he is an instant favorite to win it all.

Who has the best Engine Programs?

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team's engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Bobby Labonte

Bobby Labonte Age: 42
0 wins, 3 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 12 top 15’s
Avg Start: 21.6 Avg Finish: 22.0
Points: 21st Driver Rating: 67.9
#43 Cheerios Dodge Crew Chief: Paul Andrews

Despite 15 years of Cup experience everything was new for Bobby Labonte in 2006. After ten seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing, Labonte got a fresh start with Petty Enterprises. He was one of several notable additions for PE in 2006. Champion crew chief Todd Parrott signed on as Labonte’s crew chief and Robbie Loomis rejoined Petty as General Manager. The moves gave the organization renewed credibility and also raised expectations for the season.

Petty Enterprises hadn’t been competitive for years. John Andretti was the last driver to score a top five back in 2001. Since that time, the company had a total of seven top tens. With a former Winston Cup winner, plus adding two Cup winning crew chiefs gave hope for drastic improvement.

For Labonte it was a chance to reenergize his career. Things weren’t bad at Gibbs, but it had grown stagnant. Petty offered a chance to contribute more than simply driving, but to help rebuild the most famous car in NASCAR.

Everyone at Petty warned that progress would be slow. It was still hard to not notice the immediate change. Labonte started 8th at the Daytona 500 and ran well until a crash with three laps left ruined his run. Then he started 4th at Atlanta and led 13 laps before his engine blew. The breakthrough finally came the next week at Bristol. Labonte deftly avoided trouble and finished 5th. He added top tens at Texas and Phoenix in the next few weeks.

Three top tens in the first eight races. It was the same number of top tens that Kyle Petty and Jeff Green combined for in 72 races in 2005. Even with swift success, it was hard to maintain the whole season. Labonte had more strong runs, but didn’t get another top ten until the July Pocono race.

In the middle of the season, Parrott announced he was leaving Petty to return to Yates Racing. It was a setback for Labonte’s team but it wouldn’t last long. Prior to the Chase, Kyle Petty hired Billy Wilburn to head the #45 team. This moved Paul Andrews to Labonte’s car. Andrews won a championship in 1992 with Alan Kulwicki.

Labonte and Andrews clicked during the Chase. In their second race together Labonte finished 7th at Dover. This began a very solid eight race stretch where Labonte’s average finish was 12.15 including two top 5’s and four top 10’s. The season ended with a crash at Homestead, his eighth DNF of the season. It was still one of the most successful seasons in the last decade for PE.

As impressive as Labonte was in his first season with Petty, the results could have been better. He suffered 8 DNF’s, including 3 engine failures. He also had a variety of bad luck ruin other runs. Crashes twice spoiled good finishes at Daytona. A bad transmission spoiled a top ten effort at Martinsville. Labonte also ran well at Richmond until his crew accidentally put the wrong sided tires on, wreaking havoc on the handling.

Team preparation is a large part of Cup racing and must be improved next year. On a team desperate for strong finishes they can’t afford these mental mistakes. Unfortunately they have less control over the engines. Leasing from Evernham guarantees good horsepower, but reliability has been an issue. Labonte lost three engines and Petty lost two during the season.

The progress of the #43 car was certainly the highlight of the season and brings greater optimism for 2007. There are still major obstacles for PE to remain competitive. Kyle Petty struggled with sponsorship last year and barely retained his spot in the top 35. Toyota’s introduction to Cup also brings additional big-budget teams that will raise the cost of competition.

Petty Enterprises made great strides in 2006, but they will have a large task in 2007. With the Car of Tomorrow arriving, will the team have enough personnel to cover both projects? It might be too large a task to hope for improvement. Maintaining their current status, especially in regards to the top 35 is very important. If the #45 falls outside the top 35 and begins missing races, that will also have a severe impact on Labonte’s team.

Labonte showed he can still drive in 2006. He is a legitimate threat to win at Martinsville and also excels at tracks like Atlanta, Pocono and Charlotte. Petty Enterprises hasn’t won a race since 1999. It is a long shot for Labonte to win a race in 2007, but more top fives and top tens would be a big success. A realistic goal is a top 20 finish in the points. It would mark the first time a Petty car finished in the top 20 since Andretti finished 17th in 1999.

NASCAR Driver Preview: JJ Yeley

JJ Yeley Age 30
0 wins, 0 top 5’s, 3 top 10’s, 9 top 15’s
Avg start 21.2, avg finish 25.0
Points Rank: 29th Driver Rating: 66.5
#18 Interstate Batteries Chevy Crew Chief: Steve Addington

Why can’t you be more like your brothers? That must be how JJ Yeley feels when compared to his teammates. Yeley’s plight is similar to a younger sibling with two older brothers: a high school quarterback and a straight A student. Sure he struggled in his rookie year, but look who he is compared to. Denny Hamlin won two races and made the Chase in his rookie year. Tony Stewart has two Championships and won 5 races for the second straight year.

In other words, Yeley had an average rookie season, but is teammates with arguably the best driver in NASCAR, and the driver with one of the best rookie seasons ever. There is nothing wrong with being a normal rookie. Positives (three top 10's, nine top 15's) laced with negatives (7 DNF's) summarizes Yeley's season nicely. A further look shows Yeley’s point standing was 29th, but his composite driver rating was 25th. Like most drivers with ratings that outperform their points, the reason was wrecks. He had 17 total crashes, good for 7 DNF's and 16 sub-30 finishes. In a short time he has already acquired a reputation for wadding sheetmetal.

All rookies will find trouble with one or more veterans during a long year. For most of the season Yeley avoided this trouble. Unfortunately he made a rookie mistake at the worst possible time. During the October race at Charlotte, Yeley collided with Chase contender and popular veteran Mark Martin. The scary crash cost Martin a shot at his first title. Yeley took some heat over the incident, especially since it was his third straight DNF from a wreck. Despite all the frustrations and bad finishes, he still wasn't as bad as Jason Leffler.

Joking aside, Yeley has serious talent and a resume to match. His open wheel background is similar to Stewart’s. They are the only two drivers to win the USAC Triple Crown. Yeley also set a USAC record with 24 wins during the 2003 season, breaking AJ Foyt's record. Yeley obviously has talent and was personally recommended to Gibbs by Stewart.

There were several examples of Yeley's talent in 2006. He started 4th at California, ran in the top ten the entire day finishing 8th. It was also his highest rated race with a 91.9. In July he finished 10th, 12th and 11th in a three race span at Chicago, Loudon and Pocono respectively. Based on the season driver ratings, Yeley's average running position was 22nd. This was better than Reed Sorenson and right behind Martin Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer. He also finished fifth in the Busch series standings with nine top 5's and 22 top 10's.

Frequent crashes can make for a long season, but they aren't a barometer for a driver's career. Numerous young drivers have dealt with the same thing and grew out of it once experience caught up with talent. Kasey Kahne is the most recent example. Kahne has a similar sprint car background.

Yeley's biggest tool for improvement is seat time. For the second straight season, Yeley will run both full Cup and Busch schedules. This year he will drive in Busch in James Finch's #1 car. Any seat time is valuable for Yeley, but it could be beneficial in another way. Finch is not a top Busch team and it will require Yeley's skill and more importantly patience to succeed.

If you want an idea how Yeley might do, compare his rookie season to Brian Vickers'. Vickers showed speed at times, but also frequently crashed his top-flight equipment. He had four top tens compared to Yeley's three. Vickers settled down in his second year, had some good runs and showed overall improvement. For Yeley to get 7-9 top tens plus 1 or 2 top 5 finishes is reasonable.

Yeley is a very good qualifier. He had nine top ten starts in addition to three Busch poles. It wouldn't be surprising if Yeley won a Cup pole next year. Right now his best tracks are speedways like California, Texas and Chicago. Over time, places like Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix could fit his style well too.

At 30, Yeley is not a young gun like most of the 2006 rookies. Does that make 2007 more urgent? The good news is probably not. That is not Joe Gibbs' style. One of the strengths of Gibbs Racing is the continuity. Tony Stewart has had the same crew chief for almost a decade. Interstate Batteries is a part of that continuity and it's doubtful they will demand immediate results that other more high-profile sponsors might. That said, Yeley can't get too comfortable. Aric Almirola is driving for Gibbs in Busch in 2007. If things go well, he could be Cup-ready soon.

Progress will come on 2007, but accidents and mistakes will still temper the season. If Yeley smooths out the rough spots, he could jump up to the low 20's in points. Year three will be the real chance for Yeley to make a splash.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Raines

Tony Raines			Age: 42
#96 DLP Chevrolet			Crew Chief: Brandon Thomas
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
29	0	0	1	3
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	31.8	24.4	35th	54.0
RAF	LLF	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
28	11	28	1	$2,317,695

Want an idea of how the new Toyota teams will fare in 2007? Look to Hall of Fame racing for an example. The way their season went might be the absolute best scenario for how to form a Cup team. The #96 car quietly and uneventfully worked their way into the top 35. Once there they began building a foundation for the next year. With a combination of Terry Labonte and Tony Raines, the car was simultaneously avoiding trouble and the spotlight. The two combined for 1 DNF all season.

Crashes are a season killer. This is especially true for an upstart, one car team. Raines had an exceptional season in this context. Toyota teams should aim to mirror the #96’s smooth entry to the Cup series. Staying inside the Top 35, finishing races and avoiding crashes are the three big keys to success for a rookie team. Hall of Fame accomplished all three.

The team had a lot of other factors to help avoid many of the growing pains of a new team. Labonte and his Champion provisional started the first five races for a guaranteed starting spot. He finished every race to firmly secure the #96 team inside the top 35. This alleviated pressure once Tony Raines assumed the wheel at Martinsville. Joe Gibbs Racing also provided engines, cars and technical support. HoF was able to piggyback off of Gibbs’ experience starting a new car, which they endured in 2005.

After several years of scraping together rides in the various NASCAR series, Tony Raines finally landed a ride with a reliable, funded team. He made the most of his chance in 2006. Raines is the type of driver that will not generate attention or incite on-track drama. He simply drives hard, completes laps and finishes as well as possible. Despite running only 29 races, he still finished 35th in points. He bested Travis Kvapil and Michael Waltrip despite fewer starts.

Think about all the potential problems a race team faces every race. Now consider that Raines had one DNF and you realize how impressive his record was last year. Obviously some luck is involved, but the driver and crew also need skill. It's deciding when to pit when he hears a vibration, avoiding cars on pit road, and not squeezing into a small hole on lap 40. The crew also deserves credit for ensuring every part from the $45,000 engine to the $1.99 plugs are tested and working.

Raines finest night was the fall race at Lowe's. In that race he led 28 laps (the only laps led of the year) on his way to a 7th place finish. It was also his highest driver rating of the season with a 97.0. This was the key piece of a solid run down the stretch. In the final seven races, Raines' average finish was 19.2. The strong finish coincided with a crew chief change. Phillipe Lopez was promoted to competition director, opening the door for Brandon Thomas to call the shots for Raines. Thomas was last a crew chief with Bobby Labonte at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2004.

Raines can't get comfortable with his solid 2006. His sponsor DLP Texas Instruments was ranked in the top ten for greatest visibility. This basically means that Texas Instruments has a lot invested in the team. Now that the team has progressed past the infant stage, improved results will also be expected. Raines was brought back for 2007, but nothing is certain long term. Is he the driver to elevate HoF to an elite team? He needs to continue improving his results throughout the season. He has run well in other series, including four wins in the Truck Series. His strength is the intermediate speedways. Fortunately the 2006 notes from these tracks will still be relevant in 2007. Raines should have comfort heading to the type of track that comprises 40% of the schedule.

Long term, the team is working towards a second team. This is the only way to stay current in NASCAR. Multiple cars to share notes and date is the only way to keep up. The alternative is winding up like Morgan-McClure or worse, PPI Racing. This expansion will be Lopez' main focus as competition director. His other project is the Car of Tomorrow. Like every team next year, crews must have two track minds. One for the normal speedway cars and another focusing on the CoT. Hall of Fame will again be able to tap into Gibbs' resources and support to ensure this goes smoothly. As long as they have this connection with Gibbs, they will always have top equipment that the team can grow into.

The outlook for Raines is a top 25 finish in the points with 2 or 3 top tens. Avoiding trouble is again a large key in how he finishes. The Chase isn't a realistic goal this year. The points neighborhood consists of veteran drivers like Dale Jarrett, Jeff Green and Joe Nemechek, and Raines can compete with all of them.

Previous Previews:

AJ Allmendinger

Michael Waltrip

Jeremy Mayfield

David Gilliland

Kenny Wallace