View from the couch: Martinsville

Unless you are Kevin Harvick, it was pretty much same old Martinsville. That’s a good thing and at least for non-aero tracks, the CoT works pretty well. It was an exciting finish between teammates beating and banging, but not wrecking. That finish would have probably happened in any car, it was a product of a tough, tight race track rather than the car. After watching the Truck race, it’s a huge contrast in the driving skill and patience of the Cup guys.

-The corporate team line from Jeff Gordon wasn't very believable. He didn't win the race and he is initially upset, but he has no right to be upset with Jimmie Johnson. Johnson did not drive dirty and deserved to win as much as Gordon. Gordon is not entitled to win just because he has the best car or is close to making the pass. Because it was a teammate he certainly wasn’t going to pull a Montoya. It's also interesting that he said he would never wreck someone to win. I wonder what Matt Kenseth would say about that. If Gordon won he deserved to win, but you have to say the same thing about Johnson. No one is entitled to wins. Jeff Burton was probably upset he didn’t win last week, but he was at least content with second because he raced the right way.

-Speaking of Burton, the start of his season has been nearly flawless. If not for a lost cylinder at Las Vegas, he would have six top tens in six races. Instead he has 4 top fives and 5 top tens. His average finish is 5.7 and he has two Busch victories. Last year was not a fluke.

-Last fall David Ragan was everywhere at Martinsville, hitting several other cars and drawing the ire of several drivers. The same was actually true last weekend. This time at Martinsville Ragan basically kept his splitter clean and finished on the lead lap in 15^th. This year is obviously a steep learning curve, but he is headed in the right direction.

-Ken Schrader qualified 4^th and then dropped like a rock. It was never really explained why. He settled in and ran the rest of the day on the lead lap before finishing 19^th. The finish also moves the #21 car within 11 points of 35^th place.

-People make too big of a deal about Practice times. Martin Truex Jr. was great in all three practices, while Jimmie Johnson was last in one practice session. It gives some indicator of how good cars are, but a lot of the time it doesn't show the whole story. Truex struggled all day before suffering mechanical problems and Johnson won.

-Rain delays are usually a big drain of excitement, but it was perfectly timed for an errand run.

-Is anyone else bothered the Fox graphic that turns yellow when a pit reporter is talking? Most NASCAR fans can tell the difference between Dick Bergerren, Matt Yocum and Krista Voda by the voice. On quick glance the yellow logo looks like a caution was waved. It's very confusing.

-When Kevin Harvick's car door caught fire Darrell Waltrip immediately claimed NASCAR said it was impossible. He later revised his statement, but it was still a puzzling claim. Several drives complained about the problem last week, yet NASCAR's PR people say it's not an issue. From the outside it’s impossible to say whether this was a preventable issue, but it’s definitely an issue. It still seems pretty fundamental to make sure the car is safe from toxins before addressing competition issues.

Next race is at Texas, but first it’s time for an off week. It gives a chance to catch the opening week of baseball, watch the men’s basketball championship game and of course, celebrate the true reason for Easter.

Martinsville Preview and Predictions

Martinsville is one of the most exciting tracks on the Cup circuit. It’s short, and tight, and there are zero aerodynamics involved. The turns are concrete with asphalt straightaways. It’s a half mile track so drivers are always battling traffic. Brakes fail, cars get hot and tires get cuts and flats. Two of the more impressive drives of recent time have come in the last two spring races. In 2005 Jeff Gordon lost three laps early on die to an unscheduled pit stop. He earned two laps back by passing the leader and then got a lucky dog near the end of the race. With several of the best cars having problems, Gordon took advantage and worked his way to the front for the win. The impressive win was not without controversy. On his late march to the front, he made contact with Kurt Busch spinning him into the fence.

In 2006 cars got bunched up on lap one, resulting in a large accordion-like wreck. Dale Earnhardt Jr’s car suffered severe damage with the right front fender torn off. As he limped back to the pits, hoses snaked out of the hole, giving the appearance of a car that would spend the rest of the day merely turning laps. The team pitted several times under the caution, but managed to stay on the lead lap. The cars’ entire right front tire was exposed, but Earnhardt Jr. continued on. As the race progressed,the 8 car kept climbing the leader board, getting as high as 5^th. A second incident with Ryan Newman sent Earnhardt Jr. back to the pits for repairs. Despite two major incidents during the race, Junior still was one of the fastest cars at the end of the race, finishing 4^th.

Neither of these finishes could happen at most tracks. The speeds are too fast and it’s too hard to overcome three laps or major body damage. Some might complain that Martinsville is too slow or it’s too hard to pass. What is wrong with a track being tough to pass on? It is much different than an intermediate track that is hard to pass on because of the aero-sensitivity. It’s simply a small track with one groove. It actually puts more responsibility in the drivers’ hands and that’s where everyone wants it anyway. If it was too easy to pass, every race would be like Michigan.

-Fox is televising the Craftsman Truck Series event at Martinsville on Saturday. It is the first CTS race on network television since 2000. For many fans without the Speed Channel (including myself) it is a look at the most consistently competitive series in NASCAR. With many sponsors and manufacturers withdrawing support, it’s a needed boost of exposure for the series too. It’s also a good thing the race will finish before the Final Four games tip off.

-The only Martin to win at Martinsville is Mark (’92, ’00). He is not entered this weekend so it is up to Martin Truex Jr. to try and carry on the Martin’s Ville mantel. That is unless Matt Martin shows up or maybe Marty Snider takes a hot lap.

-Richard Petty has won the most grandfather clocks with 15. Darrell Waltrip has 11 wins. The only active driver with more than two is Jeff Gordon (7).

-Hendrick Motorsports has won six of the last eight races at Martinsville. They have also won the last three weeks in the Nextel Cup in 2007.

-This week is the CoT is again the focus. Expect the usual teams and drivers to be at the front: Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson. My pick this week is Stewart. In the last four races he has led 818 laps at Martinsville. He has three straight top fives including a win last spring. Watch out for Jamie McMurray as a dark horse. He ran well last week at Bristol and has 5 career top tens in 8 races at Martinsville.

-My other predictions are Ohio State and UCLA to meet Monday night. Watch out for Billy Packer,Billy Packer Man-Crush Award include Joakim Noah, Sean May, Chris Duhon and of course, the all-time great Mateen Cleaves. Who will it take the Man-Crush Award this year? My guess is Ohio State point guard Mike Conley Jr.

Top Reasons why Greg Biffle was not fined for his low car at Bristol:

10. The Ladder of Tomorrow was an unapproved modification, so the 16 team lowered the car.

9. Mike Helton was promised a spot on Boston’s opening day roster.

8. Nicole Lunders threatened Brian France with an Aquafina bottle unless he waved the penalty.

7. No jetfuel, no foul.

6. Mark Martin was a week early with an April Fools gag.

5. Biffle brought party Subs to the NASCAR hauler and also offered free tax service from Jackson Hewitt.

4. Jim Hunter didn’t think anyone in Nextel Cup would cheat on purpose.

3. Instead of a points or monetary penalty, Biffle will now have to drive the Car of Tomorrow at Texas.

2. Somehow it was Hendrick Motorsports’ fault.

1. The Fusion low-rider was Ford’s answer to the Chevy Impala commercials with Dale Jr and rapper T.I. Holla!

View from the Couch: Bristol

The two most common phrases on Sunday: Unscheduled pit stop, and Trouble in Turn 2! I appreciate Mike Joy and Bristol doing so much to promote my little blog. Turn 2 was where all the action was on Sunday. The race had plenty of stories happening. The world didn't end with the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow, Joe Gibbs Racing lead all of the laps that didn't matter and there was a close, exciting finish. Compared to most Bristol races, there were very few racing incidents. It was a day of battling one's car and the track more than other drivers. I also appreciate Kyle Busch and Jeff Burton and making my Friday picks look smart. Quite the finish.

Car of Tomorrow Notes
-Maybe Busch's quote from Victory Lane summed it all up, “I can't stand to drive these things, they suck.” And this is from a driver that won the race while spending the majority of the day in the top five. Drivers will get more comfortable with the car with time. This will be especially true at smoother tracks than Bristol. Maybe the best name for the CoT is WhIP (Work in Progress). Drivers must relearn how to control the car and crews must figure out which adjustments will work. Fans will also get used to the awkward look of the car.

-When Dale Jarrett hit the wall it looked like his trunk exploded. Other cars had pretty significant damage for pretty innocuous crashes at Bristol. The CoT will run at Darlington. Practically every driver this the wall there, what will happen to the bodies of the new cars?

-There were so many cars that had problems it was hard to tell which teams truly struggled with the car. It was surprising that Jimmie Johnson's 48 team did not run better.

-Smaller teams seemed to be more competitive: Mike Bliss, Jeff Green, Kenny Wallace Ward Burton. This probably has a lot to do with experience on short tracks. If these drivers on small teams continue to do well at other tracks on the schedule, it will be a victory for the CoT.

-The bad news for Gibbs Racing: All three cars had mechanical problems and their best finish was 14th. The good news: They led 88 percent of the laps, and the same car is back next week.

Other Views from the Couch
-Once again, Evernham was up and down: The day started great with all three qualifying and running in the top ten. Then all three cars had different problems, and none finished on the lead lap. Scott Riggs is currently outside the top 35 (right where he was last year at this time), and Kasey Kahne is barely on the right side in 34^th. Elliott Sadler is in 13^th, but has only one top ten so far.

-This year's Brent Sherman wild ride award winner is David Ragan. He spun three times before finally wrecking. After a solid start to the season (5^th, 16^th in two races) Ragan has had three tough races. Martinsville could be another long day for him. The good news is that he is solidly inside the top 35.

-Fox featured lots of in-car shots and really did a great job capturing the action from track level. It was great work to see how bumpy the track truly is. I hope this is a trend and not a novelty because of the CoT.

-Jeff Green has had some decent runs this year, but not the results. He finally finished well on Sunday, taking sixth. Without the solid run, he was in danger of falling outside the top 35.

-Mike Joy often mentions that none of the fans are leaving the end of this race. Why would they? This isn't an NBA game.

-Jeff Burton=class. What more can you say?

-Kyle Busch makes the occasional stupid mistake, but in between he is pretty likable. He is honest, is extremely talented, and does his best to respect other drivers like Burton. The new goatee also makes him look older than 18.

-The top 35 now reflects this season's standings. Joe Nemechek and Johnny Sauter crack the top 35 despite missing Bristol. Sterling Marlin also regains a guaranteed starting position for the #14 car. Dave Blaney, Scott Riggs and Ken Schrader (with Jon Wood) all fall outside the top 35. Riggs has qualified well all season, but Blaney and Schrader face a challenge in the coming weeks. Dale Jarrett was in the top 35 for the first four weeks, but his crash placed him outside the safety bubble. The mildly good news is that Jarrett made the race on time, thus saving one of his two remaining provisionals.

My Torqued off Tuesday Bug:
-Why did NASCAR wait so long to throw the caution when Jimmie Johnson cut a tire? He was crawling back to his pits and everyone around him was slowing to avoid him. In turn, this allowed Kyle Busch to pass the boxed in Denny Hamlin. This could have not only greatly affected the race, but causes a huge pileup. If Brian France and NASCAR are truly serious about integrity with their cautions and safety is a priority, someone had better send some caffeine to the control tower to keep everyone awake.

-I spent all of Monday in a seminar on negotiating. One of the first things the instructor says is, “I won't try to be a Bo Derek.” The obvious implication that he won't try to be a perfect 10 instructor for us. “I'm more of a six.” In reality I could have learned more from a book on my own time. Companies like mine spend lots of money for these kind of seminars. It's a little sorry when an instructor basically says he isn't aiming to be the best teacher, but only mediocre.

[Note: I did work on my new site, but there were some complications that delayed its launch.]

Bristol Questions

What happens to the CoT in a crash?
If the February practice was any indicator, the slightest crashes will render the car wrecked. Just because you see a spike in sheet metal sales on eBay Monday morning does not mean that Sunday's race was wild and exciting. The other troubling thing is teams will race the same cars next week at Martinsville. Some of the smaller teams might not have a large fleet of cars built yet. What happens if one or more cars get wrecked within the same company? Crew chiefs have complained about how long it takes to repair the bodies of the cars. Say a smaller team like Hall of Fame Racing or Petty Enterprises dings multiple cars this weekend. It could be tough to

Will anyone be able to pass or just one long line?
Last August's race was with a car that everyone had essentially figured out and that was a parade. Granted that was more about self-preservation before the Chase, but it still stands. It will probably be worse this year. If the cars are too fragile to handle the normal bumping at Bristol, passing becomes even harder without the chrome horn. A handful of cars will find something that works and leave everyone else in the dust. With that said, don’t use Bristol as an indicator of whether the CofT is a success or not.

Will everyone make it through inspection?
A brand new car with constantly evolving specs. A new “claw” that will test all the templates at once. Every part marked with an RFID. With so many new changes and my cynical nature, I’d say the chances are pretty good it’s going to be chaotic on Friday.

Who will be caught with their pants down?
Someone will. Everyone knew this date was coming. Some teams embraced the opportunities to test and others resisted. Given their track record on past rule changes, DEI is a likely suspect to really struggle. Ganassi also fits the profile, regardless of their recent gains on the speedway car. Evernham also tends to lag behind other teams; although once they do catch up they are a force. Ford is also handling the CoT for Roush, Yates and Wood Brothers. These teams tested less than some of the other top teams. This poses the obvious risk of falling behind the competition.

On the other hand, remember that Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne’s respective crew chiefs Robbie Reiser and Kenny Francis were suspended for the first four races. That means a lot of time in the shop to work on the Car of Tomorrow.

Can Toyota close the gap?
The last three weeks at speedway tracks Toyota has struggled. It is not surprising considering they are competing against established teams that have spent years perfecting the current speedway car. With the new model, everyone started closer to the same point. The established teams still have more resources, historical notes and talent, but at least Toyota doesn’t have as large of a gap to close with the Car of Tomorrow.

Other Notes:
The Cal Ripkens of NASCAR are dropping quickly. Ricky Rudd held the longest streak of consecutive starts until he took all of 2006 off. Michael Waltrip had the longest active streak, spanning back to 1987 until he missed three races last year. Now the current leader is Mark Martin and his 621 race streak comes to an end this Sunday. After Sunday who are the next two drivers with the longest active streaks of 477 and 476 respectively? Answer below.

The Car of Tomorrow has plenty of nicknames: Co'T, Brick, Car of Yesterday Today, Butt Ugly, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s Grandma’s Car, Plow of Tomorrow. What are we supposed to call the current model? Surely there is a better name than Car of Right Now or CORN. A few suggestions: Speedway car. The anti-brick, The less-safe racecar, The one with a spoiler, The Hammock (a perfect foil for the COT), Old Reliable. Any suggestions?

Trivia Answer A. Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte

NASCAR:The Official Hypocrite of NASCAR

NASCAR, not to mention the entire motorsports industry, runs on sponsors. Without the support of hundreds of companies teams could not run, and NASCAR would have no way to put on races and have the large purses that attract the top drivers in the US.

NASCAR has created a problem by awarding official sponsorships for seemingly any product. What is worse is the preferential treatment of certain sponsors by NASCAR.

Companies fork over more money to become the official ___ of NASCAR. The limits on what a company can officially sponsor are practically endless. Combos is the official Cheese-Filled food for crying out loud.

In some cases, NASCAR is willing to take on everyone who is interested. For example, there is not an official beverage of NASCAR. Instead there is an official beer (Budweiser), soft drink (Coca-Cola), sports drink (Powerade), juice (Minute Maid), wine (Diageo) and water (Dasani). If that isn't complicated enough, consider Calloway is the official golf ball while Top-Flite is the official golf club. NASCAR has an official manufacturer (Toyota), pace car (Chevy Monte Carlo), truck (Ford) and passenger vehicle (Dodge Charger). That obviously covers every manufacturer competing in NASCAR. These are all cases of NASCAR accommodating several sponsors and that is the way it should be.

With the latest sponsor conflicts however, either NASCAR is not interested in accommodation or NEXTEL and Sunoco have too much control over operations. With Nextel as the title sponsor, Cingular and Alltel were granted grandfather exceptions because they were in the sport prior to Nextel's involvement. Now Cingular is getting re-branded as AT&T, but NASCAR and Nextel is crying foul. Although it is the same company as Cingular, Richard Childress Racing can not show the AT&T logos on Jeff Burton’s #31 car. AT&T has filed a lawsuit. Robby Gordon was also initially denied use of the Motorola logos on his car. The ironic part is that Nextel is merging with Sprint, and the series will change to the NASCAR Sprint Cup as soon as 2008.

What is more, another RCR car, Kevin Harvick’s #29 was earlier asked to not feature the Shell logo as prominently on his car or firesuit due to the competition with Sunoco, the official fuel of NASCAR. Harvick’s car now features a smaller Shell logo plus the Pennzoil logo. Sunoco does not even have stations in some parts of the country.

It is not the first time a sponsor conflict has grabbed headlines. In 2004, as the official sports drink of NASCAR, Powerade paid for exposure in Victory Lane. Do not confuse this with the sponsor of Victory Lane itself: Gatorade. Powerade is made and distributed by Coke. The biggest feature was placing a large Powerade bottle on the roof of the winning car in Victory Lane. Drivers who were sponsored by Pepsi, like Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, would deliberately knock the bottle of the car during their celebrations. NASCAR representatives (the official officials of NASCAR?) eventually told drivers they couldn’t knock the poor Powerade bottle off the cars. When Johnson placed a Lowe’s sign in front of the bottle he was fined $10,000 for the nebulous and infamous section 12-4-A “actions detrimental to stock car racing”. That fine was rather benign compared to what it could mean for Childress or Robby Gordon. Without a multi-million dollar sponsor on the car it is difficult to pay the expenses involved with racing.

Official sponsorships should not grant exclusivity. One of the results of a free market is competition. It is usually a good thing. Home Depot and Lowe's both spend lots of money in NASCAR to gain exposure for their companies. All four car manufacturers coexist.

Things might be different is this was a sport with franchises like the NFL. NASCAR teams are independent of the governing body. They have to pay the expenses to compete and enter races. To use the analogy of a party, NASCAR is basically sending out invitations to teams and requiring that they bring a date (sponsor money). Then when the teams and their dates get to the door, NASCAR is refusing certain dates for not being on the list.

NASCAR should not be able to dictate how or where that money comes from. If a creative “official sponsor” title can not be found, NASCAR must at least allow teams to bring their own sponsors to the party no matter who it is.

My Tuesday bug (a day late):

Local news stations. Instead of teasing a story for half an hour, how about getting to the point and covering more stories. Teases must work at some level, but I can’t be the only one that just wants a straight story. Last night one local Portland channel ran a tease asking whether it would freeze overnight or not. They promoted this story three times and finally answered their own question at the end of the broadcast. Having young plants I really wanted to know whether I should cover them from the pending frost or go to bed knowing that the frost would not come. In the time it takes to ask the question, the weather man could have simply told me “yes” or “no”. Then they could move on to another story that is worth my time. They used the same tactic for a story about a lady that found a large nail in a chew toy for her dog. Instead of telling us where this happened, they wasted time with teases promising to tell us what store the nail was found at. I understand they are trying to get people to watch their channel instead of the competition. What would really keep my interest is information instead of gloss and fluff. I am confident I’m not alone. Let me know what's bugging you this week.

View from the Couch: Atlanta

Atlanta was just what NASCAR needed: An exciting race with few cautions and even less controversy. After the cheating at Daytona, lots of cautions (including disputed debris) at California, the tire complaints and wrecks at Las Vegas an uneventful weekend suited all parties well. A tight finish made things even better. Unfortunately, the racing will take a weekend or two off while the focus returns to the Car of Tomorrow. Expect widespread panic this week as several teams complain about the new car, while the few teams that did their winter homework laugh all the way to Victory Lane.

I had to tape the race and watched it last night. As a result I was more concerned with finishing the race than analyzing the various coverage elements. Many will say that’s a good thing. The one thing that stuck out to me was green flag runs give the Fox crew less time to goof around. That means they are talking about racing instead of showing needless fluff or allowing DW to go off on tangents. I though the coverage was pretty good on Sunday.

A few thoughts:
Ignore DW because Mark Martin will not make the Chase. He plans to miss the next two races and will certainly skip more during the summer. Say he misses two races that he normally scores top 20’s. Considering how he has run so far this year, that’s a safe estimate. That’s at least 206 points Martin leaves on the table. It would be tough to make that difference up. That’s also not accounting for any bad runs Martin has. Martin doesn’t seem to care, so why does everyone else want to make a big deal out of it?

-Props to Mike Bliss and BAM racing. They failed to qualify in the first three races, but Bliss was 9^th fastest at Atlanta and finished 21^st.

-Juan Pablo Montoya had a great run at Atlanta. Ganassi’s equipment is really improved and Montoya is learning quickly. After his first Cup top 5 his reward is 1000 laps of short track racing over the next two weeks. People can complain about Montoya saturation, but he is pretty exciting to watch. One of the most impressive things about Montoya’s run was the tire management. Teams were reporting minor tire issues and other cars struggled on long runs. Montoya drove aggressively but consistently. Consider that in Formula 1, the cars run one set of tires for two entire races.

-Setting aside the engine woes at California, DEI might have graduated from being an overgrown one-car team. There are early signs that they finally have two teams that can run well every week. Martin Truex Jr scored a top ten Sunday and ran well at Daytona and Las Vegas too. Dale Earnhardt Jr has spent the majority of the last two weeks in the top five, but hasn’t finished well. The finishes will come at the speedways. It’s a significant improvement over previous years where Earnhardt Jr was the only car capable of running up front every week. Now we’ll see if DEI paid attention to the Car of Tomorrow.

Who Would Have Predicted…
…That Evernham cars would have two top ten’s and none on the intermediate tracks where they usually run so well.

…That David Ragan would have more top fives (1) than Greg Biffle (0).

…The most consistent Dodge to date would be David Stremme.

…That Toyota would have this much trouble. Only one car (#44 Dale Jarrett) currently sits inside the top 35. David Reutimann can’t seem to avoid trouble. He now has 3 crashes in 3 races and sits 43^rd in points.

…That James Hylton would have as many points as Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger and more than Michael Waltrip.

…That after four races, there is no sign of a feud between any two drivers. That should change next weekend in a small Tennessee town called Bristol.

Random Thoughts for a Slow Day

I woke up with writer’s block this morning, so I thought I would have others largely write my blog for me today.

• George Gillett might invest in Evernham Motorsports. Gillett already owns the NHL’s Montreal Canadiens and English soccer giant Liverpool among other investments. If two of the top teams in Nextel Cup feel the need to seek out additional capital, how are the lower tier teams ever going to make it?



• Larry McReynolds explains why Jimmie Johnson’s team did not break any rules on their final pit stop:

  A tire can be in the next pit box. Draw an imaginary line down the center of the pit boxes. Your equipment, including tires, cannot be on the track side of the line, and the No. 48 car's was not on that side of the line.
  
  It's not a NASCAR official's job, but it's not uncommon. Think about it from a safety standpoint. A tire rolling out on pit road can get hit by a car and hit a crew member.
  At most races, I can look at all of pit road in one glance. You would be shocked at how many NASCAR officials catch tires rolling away from every race team. Officials won't catch tires stop after stop. If it continued to happen, the official would go to the crew chief and say, "Look, I'm not catching your tires anymore." But once or twice during a race, I see officials catch tires for all race teams up and down pit road.
  

  I can live with that. I noticed the tire roll past his pit box, but not into the road. Sure some might look at the official stopping the tire as some kind of advantage for the 48 team. In the bigger picture the officials are there to make sure everything is safe. That’s why they penalize for speeding, loose lugnuts and straying equipment. Look at it this way. If the official lets the tire go it ensures Johnson’s team is penalized, but it also allows a 70 pound tire the chance to hit another car or crew member.

• One of the best mainstream media blogs is Virginia-Pilot beat writer Dustin Long. A beat writer that understands how to use a blog is great. He gives additional notes, quotes and insight that can’t fit in his regular articles. He also updates frequently from places like the CoT test at Bristol, well before other outlets had any information. He is one of those writers that are always overflowing with information.From Dustin Long’s blog:
  

  Also, James Finch is listed as the car owner for the No. 4 Morgan-McClure car of Ward Burton. The team bought the points from Finch, whose 09 car of Mike Wallace scored 160 points with his fourth-place finish in the Daytona 500. This became effecitve this week as the team tries to climb into the top 35 in car owner points by Bristol so they can have a guaranteed starting spot. The team is 38th in car owner points after Sunday's race.

  It’s an interesting note that puts Ward right back in the thick of things. If he can make the next two races, and avoid Robby Gordon’s carnage, Burton could see himself inside the top 35. It’s still a steep challenge, but 38^th is much better than 48^th in owner’s points. It’s an interesting note that I have not seen covered anywhere else. Without the extra points, Burton and the #4 car’s outlook is pretty bleak.

• Thank you to reader John for showing me the way on my Cousin Carl bug. “His dad is Ken Schrader's cousin. So Kenny started referring to him as Cousin Carl and it just stuck.” So it does make sense after all. It still bugs me, but at least it there’s a story behind it.

Numbers, stats and Torqued Off Tuesday

A few notes about driver ratings:
-Jeff Burton leads all drivers with a 116.9 average driver rating through three races. If not for a late mechanical problem, he would also have three top ten finishes and probably the points lead. Burton is proving that last year was not a fluke. Maybe he simply slumped in 2004-2005.

-Not only has Mark Martin scored three straight top five finishes, but his driver rating was above 100 in all three races. For the next two weeks you will hear nothing from me about "will he or won't he?". I think the rest of the NASCAR galaxy is covering this enough.

-Judging by their driver ratings, David Ragan and Robby Gordon have overachieved so far. Gordon’s average rating is 64.2 with an average finish of 17.7. Ragan’s average rating is 49.0, but his average finish is 19.3. Gordon's popularity rating is also rather low after his poor judgement led to wrecking Casey Mears at Las Vegas.

-Of drivers making three races, Dale Jarrett and Kyle Petty have miserable ratings of 29.0 and 30.7 respectively. Not coincidentally both drivers are toeing the top 35 line. At least Petty has had recent success at Atlanta (8th, 17th in 2006).

Top 35 Update:
The water got murkier after Las Vegas for the drivers trying to crack the top 35. Joe Nemechek and Johnny Sauter suffered early crashes. Paul Menard got trapped two laps down because of a speeding penalty, and Sterling Marlin lost an engine late. At least they made the race. David Reutimann, Brian Vickers, Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger lost further ground to the pack. If 2007 owners points kicked in today, Nemechek, Sauter, Marlin and Jarrett would be in. Kasey Kahne, Scott Riggs, Dave Blaney and the 21 car (Ken Schrader/Jon Wood) would have to make the race on time.

And then there is Michael Waltrip. He is now averaging -9 points per week. Last year was a disaster, but at least he was able to make the majority of races and had to buy his way into the Coca Cola 600 to appease his sponsor NAPA. It turns out that was nothing compared to 2007. In three Cup races, Waltrip has a -100 point penalty and missed two other races.

Fact of the Week
Last year after three races, there were 12 drivers that had completed 100% of the laps. This year only five drivers have completed 100% of the laps through three races. Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch.

My Three Bugs for the Week:
-It seems like every race during the final green flag run, the announcers will say, “The leaders just ran their fastest laps of the day.” This shouldn't be a surprise, yet Larry McReynold's voice rises when he says this. They spend the first 300+ miles fine-tuning their cars, then get fresh tires. Not to mention the fact that it's, well, the end of the race. So to reduce to the simplest terms, the best cars, tweaked towards perfection, are at the front of the pack as the race winds down, increasing the intensity and need to go faster. I don't know if it could get more basic.

-Why Cousin Carl? It doesn't make sense for a nickname. Flipper has meaning. Tony Stewart dubbing Edwards Eddie Haskell works. Aside from the obvious alliteration, Cousin Carl holds zero logic. What is next, Brother Boris? Nephew Nemechek?

-The unofficial office cheerleader. Nearly every office has one. It's the person that organizes the potluck for lunch, decorates other people's desks for birthdays, and asks people to chip in for the Powerball drawing. These things are fine by themselves. Plenty of people enjoy the diversions and they can boost office morale. I also can't take issue with the fact they aren't work related, since 90% of this blog is written during work hours. I may have diversions at work, but when things need to get done I do them right away. The problem is that in my experience, the cheerleader is the first employee to complain about being too busy. Said person might have more time if they weren't always willing to pick up Starbucks for everyone or playing Secret Santa.

What’s bugging you today or this week? Let me know.

Things I don’t want to hear this weekend:

-“Who will have their luck run out? And who will shoot craps?”-Thanks Chris Myers.

-“Another right front tire problem.”-I really hope Goodyear and NASCAR get it right this weekend.

-“Trouble again for the 8 car”-Love him or hate him, it’s good for NASCAR when Junior runs well. Plus, I happen to like him.

-“Ooh, Deuces wild!”- as Kurt Busch takes the lead. Thanks DW.

-“You know, here in Vegas you want to hit 21, but it looks like 20 is a pretty good number too.”-Larry McReynolds as Tony Stewart opens an 8 second lead.

-“Trouble in Turn 2”-With increased speeds comes increased danger and decreased control. Nobody wants to see another scary crash like David Reutimann’s at California.

-“Who will gamble on fuel here in Sin City?”-Thanks Mike Joy.

-“Caution for debris, that means we’ll have a green, white, checker finish.”-Oh great, phantom caution and a contrived green, white, checker.

-“Honey, can are you going to clean the basement today?”-“Sorry dear, there’s a green white checker!”

Other Thoughts

-Is it me or has this been a really quiet two weeks in the NASCAR world? There is nothing noteworthy happening. It’s been three weeks since Daytona, you would think Silly Season rumors should have surfaced by now. Something about how Jeffrey Earnhardt is going to replace Dale Jr in the 8 car. Or maybe Regan Smith announcing his retirement from Cup racing.

-This weekend is Daylight Savings Time. Don’t forget. It would be a shame to miss an hour of the race by forgetting to spring ahead.

-My prediction for a youngster to win at California was not very accurate. Clint Bowyer ran well, but never threatened. This week is a brand new surface at Las Vegas so I think someone with great car control and probably a veteran will win. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth each have two wins here and either would make sense. I'm going with Jeff Gordon. He ran well at California, and traditionally runs very well higher banked tracks and he won at Chicago last year. Chicago has 18 degrees compared to the new Vegas' 20 degrees.

-Last Thursday marked the annual start of Mustache March. One of my friends is “required” by his work to grow a stache. I decided to join in and grew a killer handlebar. I still need to take a picture, but it most resembles Morgan Spurlock of Super Size Me fame. It only took me two months to grow, but I'm pretty proud. My wife? Not so much.

-And Finally…Introducing Torqued off Tuesdays

I’ve been thinking about a way to create more interaction with fellow NASCAR fans and the loyal readers of my blog (I really appreciate the support by the way). A few years ago I worked at a sports radio station. They had a feature called “What Bugs you Wednesday.” Listeners would call in with their best bugs about sports, work, traffic or life in general. The best ones were pretty funny. So I’ve decided to try something similar beginning next Tuesday. Maybe something in Sunday’s race will get you torqued off, or a coworker that comes by your desk to ask if you got their email, or the dude that cut you off on the freeway. Whatever it is, leave a comment on Tuesday. I’ll come up with a few myself and see how it goes. I wish I had a prize for the best ones, but at least there’s the potential for some fun or catharsis.

Let me know what you think.

How to improve Qualifying (I couldn't think of a better heading)

Two weeks ago at California Michael Waltrip threw down a qualifying lap that was 34^th fastest. It was faster than 10 teams that made the race, but Waltrip took the long early voyage back across the country. After a tumultuous Speedweeks that saw Waltrip exit with negative points, it was another tough result for the #55 team. Four seasons ago Waltrip wouldn’t have had to worry about explaining to NAPA why they missed the race. The problem now is owner’s points. With the top 35 teams assured spots every Sunday, new teams face a serious challenge to make races. The challenge is compounded this year with so many new teams attempting the full Cup schedule.

A common response from fans is “go fast or go home.” It sounds simple, but the issue is far more complex than simply sending slow teams home. Eliminating all guaranteed spots is not possible. There are too many interests involved for this to work.

Fans come to watch the stars. It is one of the unique attractions that NASCAR can offer. Very few sports can guarantee that all of the top drivers will be in the same event every weekend. Even in golf, stars like Tiger Woods don’t play many of the smaller events.

A paying fan can bank of the fact that Dale Earnhardt Jr, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and almost every other top star will be in the race they choose to attend.

Without some assurance that the stars will race, it opens a door that NASCAR certainly doesn’t want opened. Say Tony Stewart cuts a tire in qualifying at Indianapolis. Suddenly one of the most popular drivers in the sport would not be in the field in one of the biggest races of the year. Stewart fans would miss seeing their favorite driver. Fans who hate Stewart miss out on the chance for their favorite driver to beat Stewart. Race fans as a whole would miss one of the top drivers at one of his favorite tracks. It goes beyond one driver too. If a driver wins, they want beat all the top drivers. Fans want to see a collection of all the top drivers their favorite included.

This also affects the large sponsors. Whether fans like it or not sponsors do have a large say in NASCAR. It makes things murky, but that’s the way it goes when Fortune 500 companies invest seven figures in the sport.

If you are a team inside the top 35, it is a tremendous advantage. First there is little need to work on qualifying setups during practice sessions. They can focus solely on running race trim if desired. Secondly, if they have a safe, slow qualifying lap there is no risk of smacking the wall and ruining a primary car during qualifying.

Guaranteed spots in the field will not go away, but it does need tweaking. The rule’s original intent was to provide some insurance for the teams that attempted every race. Maybe it made sense in 2005 when there were fewer than 43 full time teams. Now there are close to 50 with plans to enter all 36 races. Reduce the number of teams to somewhere between 20 and 25. That way anyone with realistic visions of making the Chase, and this presumably would include most stars, and let everyone else make the race on time.

Another related issue is the Champion’s provisional. NASCAR took a step in the right direction by capping its use to 6 races per season, but they can do more. Make it so a driver can’t use the provisional in consecutive races. That would eliminate teams from hiring a past champion to secure a top 35 spot after five races. Call it the Terry Labonte Rule (it’s nothing against Hall of Fame Racing or Labonte, they played by the rules).

Suddenly instead of 36 of 43 spots guaranteed, the number is reduced to 25. Suddenly 40% of the field is open to the fastest qualifying times. The locked-in drivers would still have an advantage, but it would even the playing field for making each race. Maybe it’s not perfect, but it would be a pretty good compromise.

Can Junior Make the Chase?

That is the pressing question in the media after the first two races. There are plenty of drivers at the bottom of the point standings, but Junior is the one everyone has an opinion on.

Matt Kenseth is the only driver to rebound from 30^th or worse after two races to make the Chase. Lost of NASCAR writers and announcers love to cite this stat. This is based off of a whopping three years of data. In statistics that’s called a small sample size. Two races is not enough time to evaluate long-term success. The same applies to drawing conclusions or trends off of three seasons.

More data is needed to make a better argument. Going back to 2000 there are eight drivers that have rebounded from an early hole. That still is not a large number, but does show that one driver each year claws his way back to the front. If you factor in drivers 26^th or worse that returned to the top12 by Richmond, the number jumps to 13.

Another factor on Junior’s (or Riggs, Truex, or Kahne) side is there are 12 Chase spots this year. In this scenario, Greg Biffle would have made the top 12 after Richmond. He sat in 38^th place this time last year. The same goes for Tony Stewart who was 28^th after California.

Looking deeper at history, in 1996 Terry Labonte sat 30^th in points after two races. Apparently he felt the season was worth saving and wound up winning the Winston Cup. Under the old point system that is a much higher degree of difficulty. Drivers now just need to crack the top 12 by Richmond to have a shot at the coconut. Labonte also only had 31 total races compared to the current 36 race schedule.

Being locked into the top 35 is another advantage for Earnhardt Jr. Several drivers ahead of him in the points do not have owners points for the first five races. Joe Nemechek is currently inside the top ten, but if he misses a race that is a large point loss for him and other like drivers. Earnhardt is only 122 points outside of 12^th place. That is not a large gap over the course of a season.

The biggest reason why a driver can recover from a bad start to make the Chase is being a good driver on a top team. In 2005 Kenseth ran well in the first two races, but lost an engine at Daytona and cut a tire late at California. He ran much better than his finishes showed. Over the course of the season he began getting the finishes and points he deserved.

The same goes for Junior and others. Earnhardt Jr is 23^rd in driver rating. He has qualified 5^th at both races and had a very fast car at California before the engine expired. The next two months also feature many of his top tracks: Atlanta, Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, Talladega, Richmond. Obviously there are questions about DEI and the Car of Tomorrow. Love him or hate him (very few are neutral), Junior is one of the best drivers in Cup and that will go a long way at the beginning with the Car of Tomorrow, plus Tony Eury Jr gives him one of the best crew chiefs.

If Junior is still mired in the 20’s or 30’s after Bristol or Martinsville, then it’s time to panic. Until then, there is plenty of time for several drivers to catch up. Not to mention plenty of time for several writers to get a grip.

Las Vegas Entry Notes:

-54 Cup cars want to race at Vegas this week. 18 drivers will compete for seven transfer spots in the race. Ward Burton, Kevin LePage, Jeremy Mayfield, Mike Bliss, Brandon Whitt, Kenny Wallace and AJ Allmendinger will all try to make their first Cup race of 2007. Three strikes to start the season would be rough.

-Most kids get permission to drive the family car for special occasions like prom when they’re 17 or 18. Jon Wood had to wait until he was 25 for his chance. “Now son, I don’t want to see a scratch on it when you bring it home.” Wood makes his debut in the historic 21 car while Ken Schrader is bumped to a second Woods Brothers entry in the 47. That also means that Schrader has to make the race on speed. Aside from four races in 2003, Schrader has started every Cup race since 1985.

-Gibbs development driver Aric Almirola will also attempt his first Cup race. He drove full time in Trucks last season and will run a partial Busch schedule. He is also one of the first NASCAR Drive for Diversity candidates to make it to the national level. I’m surprised he wasn’t given a full ride at either trucks or Busch for 2007.

Performance Enhancing Substances in NASCAR?

Apparently it's news that Barry Bonds' body is different than 15 years ago when he was a Pirate. One of my friends at work and I were discussing Bonds and went off on a tangent about steroids in NASCAR. What if Mark Martin injected HGH into his right foot? Maybe Chad Knaus' baldness is due to heavy use of flaxseed oil which enables him to install illegal car parts? Carl Edwards uses the Cream and the Clear to execute his backflips. Obviously none of it is true, and is one more reason why it is gaining in popularity while baseball can't stop tripping over its own feet.

There is still one driver that is obviously using a substance to enlarge his stature.

1999 2007

Mmm, Blizzards.

The Top 35 Derby

In European football (soccer for us Yanks) they call it relegation. At the end of the season the bottom three teams in the standings are sent down to the lower division, while three others are promoted. Unlike most US sports leagues, relegation battles create added excitement and interest for teams that otherwise have nothing to play for. Relegation means not only a lower level of competition, but significantly lower revenue. For teams in England, staying in the Premiere League means a piece of a billion dollar TV contract (about $60 million USD per team).

An NFL or NBA team that is out of playoff contention begins playing for next year. This often involves passively improving their draft pick status to land the next franchise player. Aside from waning fan support, there is no incentive for the bottom teams to remain competitive. For a losing franchise in the US, there is no reason to take interest.

Maybe the closest a US sport gets to relegation is NASCAR’s top 35 rule. Teams outside the top 35 in owner points have to qualify on time for seven or eight transfer spots to make each race. It’s not always a popular rule among fans, but it has definitely added excitement and interest for cars near the bottom of the standings. If not for the top 35 rule few would have paid attention to Kyle Petty and Sterling Marlin during the Chase. Instead it was an interesting side story as the season wound down. It also means a big difference in revenue for the teams. Obviously missing a race means no prize money, but also the potential of losing sponsors, the costs of traveling to races and their cut in the year end points fund.

The Nextel Cup is only two races in, but some teams are already in a huge hole for 2007. The first big landmark will come after the Bristol race. At that point the top 35 drivers in owner points are locked in. There are 12 teams attempting to enter the top 35, while 35 other teams attempt to stay anchored in the safety zone.

Based on the past three years, 400 points is the magic number for assured safety. That’s the average points total of the 32^nd place driver after 5 races. With more full time drivers competing to make races, that might be too high. 400 points breaks down to averaging 80 points per race, or finishing 26^th. For drivers like Brian Vickers and Paul Menard, who have already missed one race, the average bumps up to 100 points per race or a top 20 every week. Remember, Scott Riggs missed the Daytona 500 in 2006 and was back inside the top 35 by week 6. It’s not an impossible task.
Twelve drivers are trying to wriggle inside the top 35. The results range from sitting pretty to sitting on the edge of a cliff.

Joe Nemechek-A top ten at Daytona was huge. Nemechek currently has 259 points and sits 7^th in points. Ginn Racing has obviously improved all three teams since last year. Nemechek is an excellent qualifier and the points he’s already accumulated provide additional cushion.

Johnny Sauter-After a disastrous 2004 rookie year with Richard Childress, Sauter has returned from Busch purgatory. He was always a good driver-he won a Busch race in 2005- but couldn’t land another Cup ride until this season. Two top 20 finishes in two races quietly puts Sauter on pace to sit inside the top 35 with room to spare. Maybe the bigger concern is ensuring his teammate Jeff Green is around to join him.

Dale Jarrett-It is a different story for Jarrett without his past champion provisional. Using the provisional buys Jarrett at least six races, but he hasn’t piled up points so far. He is 28^th with 164 points, but struggled all day at California. How bad was it? His driver rating was 32.9 while running all day. Martin Truex Jr, who blew an engine after 14 laps, had a 37.1 driver rating. Jarrett should be fine in the long run, but MWR must find more speed.

Sterling Marlin-Qualifying on speed is old news to Marlin, who spent a large part of 2006 outside the top 35. The cars have been better so far this season, but an early crash at California hurt. Marlin’s 170 points puts him ahead of the 400 point pace, but he can’t afford the crashes that plagued him last season.

Brian Vickers-Team Red Bull finally made a race, and the finish was impressive. Doug Richert and Vickers form the best crew chief-driver combination of the Toyota cars. Vickers needs to average 88 points over the next three races to reach the 400 point mark. Qualifying for the Toyotas has still been troublesome, but once Vickers is in the race he is good enough to get Red Bull up and running.

David Reutimann-So far his record shows to races made on speed and three DNF’s including the Twin 150’s. He has been one of the fastest Toyotas in qualifying and certainly the most consistent of the MWR cars. Unfortunately he doesn’t have very many points to show for it. He sits 41^st with 107 points. With two more speedway races and then the rookie-humbling Bristol, it could be a challenge to make the top 35 after Bristol. Reutimann is definitely capable of making races and eventually entering the top 35.

Paul Menard-All the attention is on his teammates and their blown engines, but Menard had a steady race at California. His 103 points puts him in the ballpark for entering the top 35. He is currently 43^rd, although there are two part time drivers ahead of him that he will pass granted he continues to qualify for races. He was second fastest among Need for Speed drivers at California.

Michael Waltrip-The 100 point penalty from Daytona is enormous. After missing the CaliforniaToyota will figure things out as the season continues and all three of Waltrip’s cars will run better. It just won’t be immediately in the top 35. race, Waltrip still sits at -27 points after two races. What’s worse, his teammates were not very good on the intermediate track.

Jeremy Mayfield-The second Bill Davis team was expected to have a head start on the other Toyota teams because it was an established organization. Mayfield is a good driver and should be able to make two or three of the next few races. It is still a large hole missing the first two races. If he can’t make one of the next two races the year might turn into one big R&D session and building towards 2008. It sounds extreme, but that’s how competitive Cup has become.

AJ Allmendinger-It’s not surprising that the driver with no Cup experience would have the hardest time making races. What is surprising is that Allmendinger isn’t running the Busch series. He ran both truck races but he needs as much seat time as possible and Red Bull had to know it would be tough to do so at the Cup level. At least there are two road courses to circle on the calendar.

Mike Bliss, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace-These teams all have limited resources and zero Cup starts in 2007. It will be a feat to make more than six races combined this year. It will be a greater feat if all three teams are still entering races by the summer.

With five to six outside drivers in good position to enter the top 35, other drivers will fall. Here are five candidates:

Scott Riggs-With a rough start, Riggs again finds himself with a potential battle for the top 35. The 25 point penalty makes the situation more serious. At least Riggs will get crew chief Rodney Childers back for Las Vegas.

Kyle Petty-The 45 team spent last season struggling to regain a place in the top 35. With better funded teams looking to swoop in, Petty can’t afford many more DNF’s.

Ken Schrader-Schrader was the innocent victim of Dave Blaney’s reckless dive-bomb at Daytona. He is strong at short tracks, but he really needs strong runs at Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Jeff Green-Green had a decent run at Daytona ruined by Jimmie Johnson’s crash. Green has always languished in the high 20’s, but that may not be enough this year.

Dave Blaney-A wreck and a blown engine put Blaney in a hole. He has an established team, but the Camry is far from a finished product. Blaney overachieved last season with an under-supported team. If he falls outside the top 35 to start the season it is a squandered opportunity.

View from the Couch: Auto Club 500

-A flat tire killed Kevin Harvick's chances to win, but he has to be excited about how strong RCR cars were. Not only did they finish strongly, all three hovered in the top ten almost the whole race.

-It was pretty cool to see Matt Kenseth so emotional in victory lane. He won 5 races last season but is still appreciative of how hard it is to win.

-Why did Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch pit after the red flag? They entered the pits in 7th and 8th and then had to pass several cars to finish 8th and 9th respectively. Kurt Busch stayed out and moved from 12th to 7th. Even with fresh tires, seven laps wasn't enough time to make a huge difference.

-Where's Carl Edwards? I didn't hear any reason why he was struggling. Either he had problems that weren't mentioned or the #99 was completely out to lunch. Greg Biffle finished 15th, but that's a big drop from where he usually runs at California. Matt Kenseth won the race, but Roush Racing looks like they did at the end of 2006. It's definitely a long season, but right now the Chevy teams are well ahead of Ford and Dodge.

-Brian Vickers scored Toyota's first top ten in Cup. Vickers also moved up to 34th in the standings after missing Daytona.

-David Reutimann's crash looked horrible. It wasn't so much the crash, but Reutimann's reaction from the in-car cameras. Thankfully he was all right. If anyone needed a reminder why NASCAR stopped racing back to the line, this was it. A frozen field allows safety crews almost instant access to the track instead of waiting longer for the cars to slow. Reutimann took a while to get out of his car and there was a fire.

-Wolfgang Puck gave a shout out to his favorite drivers Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Gordon and Johnson had no part in the bit, but that didn't win any new blue collar fans for the duo. As if Hendrick haters needed more ammunition.

-On the flipside, Dale Earnhardt Jr showed his sense of humor by taking a bow after his spin. It was probably less frustrating since his day was already done by that point.

-DirecTV Hot Pass. Nothing like paying to hear Dale Jr say things like “we lost a cylinder” or watch Kasey Kahne's telemetry while he turns laps in 38^th place. Does anyone know if you can switch drivers with this service? That would be unfortunate if you couldn't.

-Why does Fox insist on showing the lame 3D video game graphics instead of actual video footage? It's like the friend who just got a new useless gadget, but insists on using it anyway. DW keeps saying, "Fans will love it, drivers will hate it." It's actually "fans hate it, drivers probably don't care."

-Having drivers surf in front of a blue screen. Get it? The race is in California. California is the only race venue where Fox feels compelled to havegimmicky promos. Scrap them all together.

-Larry McReynolds' favorite saying,“Guys I've been watching the __ car”. Dear Larry, watching cars is your job. I guess the alternative is doing a bit with corn dogs and fencing.

-I complain about Fox a lot, but they do a good job overall. Mike Joy is usually on top of the action and is quick to identify cars involved in wrecks. McReynolds and Jeff Hammond are at their best when they describe the technical aspects of racing and DW is DW. Fox also gets credit for catching most crashes, pit stops and restarts.

California Thoughts

Daytona and Speedweeks are done. It was another interesting two weeks capped with a wild finish. It’s a fun way to get the season going, and stirs up interest, but Daytona has little overall bearing on the season. The next four races will play a huge part in who will succeed this season.

This week’s race at California will start answering questions about the season. There are no major changes to the aero package, so it is a good first look at who has their programs together.
Last year Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle dominated California. Many immediately assumed these were the two drivers to beat in 2006. Both had solid to good years, but were far from dominant on intermediate tracks.

Look at the top ten at California:

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Jeff Burton
6. Jamie McMurray
7. Casey Mears
8. JJ Yeley
9. Mark Martin
10. Kyle Busch

Some drivers like Kenseth, Johnson, Burton and Kahne obviously had their intermediate programs in top form. Others like Stewart, Biffle and Carl Edwards apparently rolled out cars from 2005 (which also explains the engine failures for Stewart and Biffle). Casey Mears and Jamie McMurray spent the rest of the season trying to duplicate their solid runs at California. Other drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Scott Riggs progressed during the season. A few cars will show up Sunday and dominate the race. It will be interesting to see whether that indicates year long domination or just a holdover from last year.

Other things to watch this weekend:
Juan-Pablo Montoya-He will be exciting to watch all season. He struggled at Daytona, although he did look good during the 150's race. Now he will experience the finicky intermediate aero package. I think he'll qualify well and spend Sunday struggling. That doesn't mean he'll struggle for long this year. Once he figures out how to ask for the right adjustments he will head to the front.

Qualifying-Can Red Bull make a race? They have now entered four Cup races with zero official starts. Brian Vickers' Bud Shootout appearance can't really count. Can the same teams that made Daytona make the field again? Missing one of the first five races is manageable, but two missed races is really hard to crack the top 35.

Momentum-Announcers will surely talk about Kevin Harvick's momentum, but it means nothing. The tracks and cars are totally different. The only momentum that matters is coming off turn 4 in a race, not week to week.

The winner-One of last year's rookies will win. Denny Hamlin had plenty of success last year, Martin Truex Jr had a fast car at Homestead and even JJ Yeley finished 8th here last year. All decent choices, but my pick is Clint Bowyer. After his fiery, muddy crash at Daytona, he'll heed Jay-Z's advice, brush his shoulders off and win his first Cup race. He finished third last Labor Day weekend at California and had some fast cars during the Chase.

A few Random Thoughts from yesterday's race.

-Everyone will remember the wild finish and the multiple wrecks in the final 25 laps. That's probably good, because the first 175 laps were very boring. Maybe as boring as next Sunday's race at California.

-Don't get mad at Kevin Harvick for “stealing” Mark Martin's win. He was doing his job. Everyone else wrecked on the final lap trying to pass Martin too. As much as Martin deserves to win a Daytona 500 (and a Cup for that matter), no one was going to simply sit back and hand it to Martin. And there's no doubt Martin would be upset if anyone did sit back and serve him the win.

-People complain the caution should have been thrown. If NASCAR throws the caution, people complain that a good finish was spoiled. Damned if you do...

-In the last two years, Hendrick won five of the eight restrictor plate races. they often placed multiple drivers in the top ten. They were easily the top plate program in NASCAR. Granted yesterday's race placed a greater emphasis on handling than pure horsepower, but aside from Kyle Busch, Hendrick's big guns were never a factor. Yes, Ginn and Haas cars have Hendrick power, and were strong yesterday, but they obviously found a package that worked better than the four in-house Hendrick cars.

-Three commercials really stuck out as entertaining. The Tony Stewart Sunoco commercial where he goes to the grocery store with a fan (and climbs a shelf). Denny Hamlin racing a scooter at a retirement home. Jimmie Johnson showing his Nextel Cup to Elliot Sadler.

-Worst in-race feature: Domino's Hot lap.Fox compared the times of the top five qualifiers on an arbitrary lap in the middle of the race. It is pretty meaningless at most tracks, but a fast lap at a plate race is almost as meaningless as qualifying in the top five. It was even worse when the “winner” of the Hot Lap was Jeff Gordon, who was running 28^th at the time.

-Several full-time teams outside the top 35 had pretty good days. Joe Nemechek finished 7^th, Johnny Sauter 15^th, and Sterling Marlin 16^th. Dale Jarrett is secure for the first six races but helped his cause with a solid 21^st.

-Brian Vickers, Paul Menard and A.J. Allmendinger missed the Daytona 500, but at least they are still ahead of Michael Waltrip in the standings. Waltrip earned -23 points for his efforts Sunday.

-Lamest Quote: Mike Joy, “Can you hold your breath for 33 more laps?” Mike, that sounded a lot like something Bill Weber would ask. It's also easier to breathe with so many commercial breaks.

-I skipped the pre-race coverage, but was pleased with the race coverage. Fox didn't dwell on the cheating issues too much, and DW didn't even babble about Toyotas in excess.

-Maybe this is nitpicking. On ESPN's ticker it reads, “Kevin Harvick wins NASCAR Nextel Cup Daytona 500.” It's the biggest motorsports event in the US, and I think even the most clueless sports fan knows what sport the Daytona 500 is in. ESPN would never have to tell people that the Cardinals won the Major League Baseball World Series.

2007 Cup Predictions (bookmark this for crow-eating purposes)

I realize that my top ten driver and rookie previews will go unfinished. While I'm disappointed with myself, it was fun to run through over 30 drivers leading up to the top ten. It was a combination of other commitments, the feeling that I was writing the same thing for every driver, and also the fact that most NASCAR fans know plenty about the top ten drivers.

I've managed to wait until the very last minute before making my 2007 predictions prior to Daytona. I got five out of ten last year and expect about the same this year.

Predictions for the 12 Chasers:
#1 Martin Truex Jr.-The more I think about him, the more I'm convinced he is going to have a big year. Truex is strong at most types of tracks and the team now has a better handle on setups and in-race adjustments.

#2 Kurt Busch-Last year was a transition year for both Busch and Penske Racing. Busch is one of the five best drivers in the sport. If he can finish races as well as he starts them, watch out.

#5 Kyle Busch-Some people, including Kurt, believe Kyle is the most talented Busch boy. One question for the #5 team is how they interact with the new team behind the #25 car, including Casey Mears and new crew chief Darian Grubb. He will contend for the Cup, but fall just short.

#07 Clint Bowyer-It's a safe bet that he will win a race in 2007. He took full advantage of RCR's improved equipment, especially on the intermediate tracks. The biggest key for Bowyer is the short tracks, where he will need more patience.

#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr-Look past the contract squabble. Earnhardt and Eury got the job done last year. If they stay on top of the Car of Tomorrow it could be a title contending team.

#9 Kasey Kahne-A new nose for the Charger might help neutralize the cars on speedways. Kahne still needs to hold up his end of the consistency stick by reducing the number of late-race crashes.

#16 Greg Biffle-New crew chief Pat Tryson rebuilt the crew for the 16 car. Things aren't perfect at Roush, but they're still good enough to send drivers to the Chase.

#20 Tony Stewart-Smoke is the trendy pick to win everything this year. There is no reason to think he won't dominate, but it's not guaranteed either.

#24 Jeff Gordon-Gordon and Steve Letarte have the best resources in Cup. The problem is there are too many small holes in their program that take him down a notch compared to Stewart, Johnson or Harvick.

#29 Kevin Harvick-Harvick proved in 2006 that he is an elite driver. Not only did he finally have consistent equipment from RCR, but he also didn't lose his emotions like he had in previous years. Their diligence on the Car of Tomorrow gives Harvick an edge at the mile and less tracks.

#48 Jimmie Johnson-Like Stewart, there is no reason why Johnson can't win the Cup. He should win several races and be extremely consistent, but it is just too hard to repeat.

#99 Carl Edwards-Will there be a backflip this year? Missing the Chase and reuniting with Bob Osborne should allow Edwards to return to form.

On the outside looking in (otherwise known as the drivers that make the Chase when France expands to 15 in 2008):
#17 Matt Kenseth- Things were not right on the #17 car at the end of the season. It might be time for a makeover for the team.
#11 Denny Hamlin- Hamlin's 2006 season was divine. Even when he spun in the grass he could still recover to win the race. Despite top-notch Gibbs equipment, Hamlin will eventually run into a slump this season.
#42-Juan-Pablo Montoya- He'll crash and struggle some in Ganassi equipment, but he may also be this year's Denny Hamlin. While other rookies struggle to qualify, he's busy racing for top tens right off the bat.

And the winner is...
The biggest unknown is the Car of Tomorrow. Five of the Chase races will feature the new ride. The team that figures out how to get the car to turn well is going to win the Chase. RCR has spent a lot of energy and money to ensure they are prepared for the new car. The #29 team was the best at flat 1-mile tracks where getting the car to roll through the corners is vital. That is why Kevin Harvick will have an edge on other teams. It will make the difference for him to capture his first championship at the Cup level.