Who has the best Engine Programs?

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team's engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Elliott Sadler

Elliott Sadler Age: 31
0 wins, 1 top 5, 7 top 10’s, 11 top 15’s
Avg start: 17.5 Avg finish: 23.1
Points: 22nd Driver Rating: 69.2
#19 Dodge Dealers/UAW Dodge Crew Chief: Josh Browne

Things happen quickly at the Cup level in NASCAR. For evidence look at the last year and a half for Elliott Sadler.
After making the Chase and winning two races in 2004, Sadler spent the first half of 2005 inside the top 10. Then he went without a top ten finish for ten races, dropping him from Chase contention. The aero issues, prominent in 2006, began surfacing in 2005. Further, Sadler’s crew chief Todd Parrott was moved to Dale Jarrett’s car for the final ten races, before Parrott moved to Petty Enterprises. This planted a seed of frustration for Sadler.

One year ago Sadler won his qualifying heat at Daytona and finished fourth in the Daytona 500. It was a nice start to a season that soured quickly. It was evident that Robert Yates Racing had fallen behind on the intermediate tracks that comprise the bulk of the schedule. Sadler and Dale Jarrett could compete at Daytona and Talladega along with the short tracks, but once the tour visited Texas or Charlotte they were back markers. In 22 races with Yates Sadler didn’t have a top ten at an intermediate track. The frustration had grown for not only Sadler but teammate and close friend Dale Jarrett. When Jarrett announced plans in May to leave Robert Yates Racing after 2006 for Toyota, Sadler also began researching his options with other teams.

After three and a half seasons at Robert Yates, Elliott Sadler moved to Evernham Motorsports in August. He left on a good note, finishing 7th at Watkins Glen in his final race for Yates. He also was reluctant to publicly discuss his parting, instead trying to make the spilt as amicable as possible.

Things began well in the #19 car too. Sadler started 2nd and finished 10th in his first race at Michigan. The strong car was reportedly due to Evernham’s personal battle with the departed Jeremy Mayfield. Whatever the case, it was still the first top ten for the #19 team. More importantly the finish returned the team to the top 35 in owner’s points.

The finishes didn’t necessarily show improvement, but Sadler’s driver ratings in the first six races averaged 83.8, with a high of 95.1 at Dover. It’s not numbers to get excited about, but much steadier than the car had run prior to Sadler. As the year progressed, the team switched to testing mode and the results suffered. He didn't score a top ten in the final eight races.

Sadler joined a team that had a brand new crew in 2006. The end of the year was spent getting Sadler on the same page as Browne and the team. It is hard to gauge the team’s progress based solely on the results. What, and how much, the team learned at the end of 2006 should show up in the first four races in 2007.

Both Sadler and Dale Jarrett felt the largest need at Yates was more engineering support. Now that both have moved to new teams, it’s interesting that each of their new crew chiefs have engineering backgrounds. How Sadler and team director Josh Browne communicate will be a huge part of any success in 2007.

In good equipment Sadler is a proven front runner. He has won at Bristol, California and Texas, but is also strong at Martinsville and restrictor plate tracks Daytona and Talladega. He has also had several strong runs at Dover, leading 186 laps, although his finishes haven’t always justified the good runs. Evernham’s intermediate program was one of the best in 2006, winning 6 races and 8 poles at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. With a full season, Sadler should resume running up front at the aero-sensitive speedways. Sadler has also developed into a very good qualifier with seven career poles.

Sadler made the Chase in 2004 and spent the first half of 2005 in the top 10, based on patiently finishing races. A monumental swoon in the summer cost him a second Chase berth and Sadler is yet to regain that consistency. His first step is finishing races. He had 3 combined DNF’s in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he suffered 7.

A new team with a different approach is exactly what Sadler was looking for. Now that he has his wish, it is up to him to get the results. Evernham is an improving organization but there are still weaknesses. Sadler is a proven driver that could surprise in 2007. A win is possible, but not expected. A realistic goal is 3-4 top 5’s and 10-15 top ten finishes. He has an outside chance at making the Chase, but realistically will probably need another year for his team to jell.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dale Jarrett

Dale Jarrett Age: 50
0 wins, 1 top 5, 4 top 10's, 10 top 15's
Avg start: 28.2, Avg Finish: 22.7
Points rank: 23^rd Driver Rating: 57.5
#44 UPS Toyota Crew Chief: Matt Borland

2006 did not go the way anyone at Robert Yates Racing had hoped. For Dale Jarrett it was a season of struggles and transition but also hope. Jarrett's on-track performance was one of the worst seasons of his 22 year career. Four top tens was the lowest season total since 1989. He scored at least seven per year from 1990-2005. He went winless for the second season in three years. Things were rough on the track, but Jarrett does have a fresh start to look forward to in 2007.

After 12 years with Robert Yates Racing Jarrett will drive for Michael Waltrip Racing, helping to introduce Toyota to the Cup stage. This presents a new challenge for the 50 year old Jarrett. It's a new manufacturer, new organization, a new crew chief (again) and maybe a new perspective for Jarrett. While that is a lot of changes, Jarrett will keep UPS as sponsor. Keeping his same sponsor since 2001 guarantees the popular, “He's going to drive the truck” ad campaign will continue.

On the track the numbers spelled struggle for Yates and Jarrett. His season driver rating was 57.5, 29th among full time drivers. A fourth at Kansas was his only top five of the season. Even that was more the result of fuel mileage than a great run in a strong car. On the other hand he finished 23^rd in the point standings. This means he didn't run well, but avoided trouble and finished races higher than he deserved. Some of this slump is attributed to Jarrett, much of the problems fell on the Yates team. They trailed the other powerhouse teams on every track except Daytona and Talladega.

The season was especially rough for Robert and Doug Yates. Coinciding with Jarrett's announced exit, Crew chief Slugger Labbe was also suspended four races for a sway bar infraction at Richmond. He was later released from Yates, along with fellow crew chief Tommy Baldwin and General Manager Eddie D'Hondt. Yates' other driver Elliott Sadler also left mid season for Evernham motorsports. 2006 was also the first season in his 18 years that Robert Yates didn't score a victory.

Jarrett did enjoy some highlights among the frustration. He started things off with a tenth place finish at Daytona and followed that with a ninth at Atlanta three races later. The weekend of the Darlington race in May, Jarrett announced he would drive for Waltrip in 2007. He finished 21^st or better in the first ten races, including two top tens and four top fifteens. After the announcement, Jarrett's performance sunk. Except for a 20^th at Michigan, he didn't finish better than 22^nd for the next 13 races. He did finish strong with six top fifteen finishes in the final 12 races. It wasn't a dream ending for his Yates tenure, but he didn't mail it in either.

Heading to 2007 there are two big questions to ask. Can Jarrett still get up on the wheel or will he enjoy his golden parachute? Can Waltrip Racing provide consistent cars for Jarrett?

Crew chief Matt Borland left Ryan Newman's team at Penske to join Toyota and Jarrett. Jarrett's biggest complaint at RYR was the lack of engineers. Borland might place the greatest emphasis on engineering of any crew chief on tour. This is often a good trait, but last year it didn't serve Newman and and Borland well. They wasted the beginning of the season and presumably the offseason on perfecting the 2004 Dodge Intrepid. Borland will be Jarrett's sixth crew chief in three seasons. The addition of Borland and his fresh perspective should help reignite Jarrett.

He is assured a place in the field thanks to his Champion's provisional. He and Dave Blaney are the only Toyota cars with a guaranteed spot for the first five races. Jarrett should have no problem entering the top 35 and staying there the entire season. That means he can focus less on qualifying and more on the actual races. Unless the Camry proves totally flaky, Jarrett should be able to score 5-7 top tens. In the right equipment Jarrett is still one of the top restrictor plate drivers. He also has impressive numbers at Michigan, Atlanta and Bristol. He has won at 16 different tracks. His best chance for top tens are at these three track

Jarrett is one of the most popular and well-respected drivers in the sport. The tentative plan is to drive for two more seasons and then retire. Of course, drivers have changed plans before. Jarrett is past competing for championships, but given the right car at the right race he can still vie for wins and top fives.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Robby Gordon

Robby Gordon Age: 38
0 Wins, 1 top 5’s, 3 to 10’s, 10 top 15’s
9 DNF’s
Avg Start: 27.5 Avg Finish: 25.3
#7 Menard's/Jim Beam Ford Crew Chief: Greg Erwin

Mention Robby Gordon and you’ll get an array of reactions. Some think he has no talent, others think he’s one of the finest drivers in the garage. Still other people consider him reckless and a cheater. With most things, the accurate picture is somewhere in the middle. Gordon will probably always be a lightning rod for fans.

Whatever your personal opinion of Gordon, the progress his one-car team has made in two seasons is impressive. Prior to 2005 Gordon announced bold plans to run his own Cup team. After failing to qualify for races, having fickle equipment and poor finishes in 2005, the critics appeared right. Gordon built upon that rough beginning and made significant progress in 2006.

The biggest immediate obstacle was making races. Gordon successfully qualified for the Daytona 500 and the next four races to secure a top 35 starting spot. Once safely inside, Gordon went about improving his finishes. His 30th place finish didn’t fully represent how he ran in many races. His 64.9 driver rating was 26th. Several races were spoiled by DNF’s. He had a Cup worst nine. He also completed a very low 86% of the possible laps. Some of these issues were out of his control, while others were self-inflicted wounds. He had 10 top fifteen finishes and 14 finishes worse than 30th. Consistency was not present in the #7 car.

In the early part of the season Gordon had several good runs ruined by late problems. At both Atlanta and Texas he ran inside the top ten only to get trapped under caution. His first top ten came at Talladega in the spring. He added a fourth at Watkins Glen and a 10th at the fall Atlanta race to his season.

The Atlanta finish also created controversy for Gordon. Late in the race Gordon was caught throwing a piece of debris in hopes of a caution. The caution did drop, allowing him to stay on the lead lap and ultimately close out a top ten. NASCAR’s hammer also dropped, costing Gordon 50 points and $15,000. That’s still an improvement compared to thrown helmets and cursing on national TV.

Robby Gordon Motorsports is primed for more improvement next year too. He is switching from Chevy to Ford. Joining Ford will lend better manufacturer support. Instead of fighting for scraps with Chevrolet, Gordon is now one of nine cars getting support from Ford. The Yates/Roush engine package will provide better reliability. Gordon used DEI engines in 2006. This was an improvement over Menard’s engines and was a large factor in Gordon qualifying for races in 2006, but Gordon still had 3 engine blowups.

Crew Chief Greg Erwin found a speedy setup for the intermediate tracks. Now Gordon needs some luck to get his deserved finishes. He is always a favorite to win at the two road courses, and obliges when his equipment cooperates. He should also continue his strong runs at plate tracks (avg finish 13.25 in ’06). He has three career Cup wins at Sonoma, Watkins Glen and Loudon. His achilles heel is short tracks. In 13 races at Martinsville his average finish is 32.9 and has not scored a top ten. Excluding Loudon, all the 1-mile and shorter tracks (Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, Bristol, Dover) all give Gordon problems. That's over a quarter of the schedule to struggle at.

The key is smoothing out the erratic finishes. More reliable engines will help, but Gordon must also avoid crashes and not lose control of his emotions. When he runs well, ensuring a good finish is a must. If it's not a strong track, don't try too hard and end up in a wreck. In his three full seasons with Richard Childress Racing he scored finishes of 20th, 16th, and 23rd. In his third season of ownership, his equipment should gain consistency. Geting more even results should bring him closer to this type of points finish. He is not a Chase contender, but 20-25 in points is respectable and realistic. Considering where he started two years ago that would be quite impressive.

Previewing the New Veterans:

After taking most of 2006 off, two popular veterans are returning to full-time Cup rides in 2007. Ward Burton and Ricky Rudd both return to Nascar’s top series. Both have decades ofexperience winning races and finishing in the top ten in points. The problem is that past experience won’t matter as much as one might think.

In two years the sport has changed quite a bit. A new aero-package, the innovation of coil-bound springs, newly paved tracks, the Car of Tomorrow and constantly evolving tire combinations all pose a steep challenge to any driver. It’s hard enough for full-time drivers to keep up with, let alone a driver on hiatus. Rudd and Burton are veterans, but they also are in new rides. Each is stepping into a different situation, and that will greatly effect how they do in 2006.

After a year off, Ricky Rudd joined Robert Yates Racing for the second time in his career. Rudd won three races in his first stint with Yates from 2000-2002.This time Rudd's signing helps Yates out of a dire situation. As recently as Homestead, there were rumors of Yates selling part of his team and the #88 car. Now the car has full funding from Snickers and the best available driver in Rudd to wheel it.

Rudd is still a threat to win races when given good cars. An outstanding road racer (six career wins), he nearly held off Tony Stewart at Sonoma in 2005 before finishing 2^nd. His best tracks are Dover, Kansas, Texas and Bristol.

He last raced for Wood Bros, so he’s familiar with Ford’s operations. He also tested for a few teams in 2006, especially on the Car of Tomorrow. Rudd also subbed for an injured Stewart at Dover last May. No one has more experience than Rudd and the fact he stayed involved with testing during his time off will help. He easily maintain a top 35 spot and give a few good runs, probably 5-6 top tens.

Rudd’s biggest contributions may come outside of his car. One project is helping teammate David Gilliland mature. He will no doubt be available for the young driver to bounce ideas and strategy off. Yates Racing is beginning to dig out of a miserable 2006. If interested, Rudd could play a role in this reconstruction in the same way Jeff Burton did at RCR.

After getting released by Haas/CNC racing near the end of 2004, Ward Burton took nearly two full years off. He did some television work plus several wildlife conservation projects. Realizing he still wanted to race, in 2006 he began talking to different teams about returning. During the summer Burton was rumored to join several top teams including Yates. When the offers dried up, Burton joined Morgan-McClure. He raced three times at the end of 2006 and will drive full time in 2007.

Burton admitted the time off cost him. Getting reacquainted with the technology is the largest task during the offseason. Unfortunately that might be the least of his troubles. The #4 car hasn't been competitive for years. Since 2000, the team has two top tens. They failed to qualify for six races in 2006 and couldn't even net a top fifteen finish. One necessary upgrade is the engine program. Scott Wimmer suffered 3 failures during 2006 in the 4 car.

Like many one-car teams, they also struggled with full-time sponsorship. The immensely popular Burton should help in that area too. State Water Heaters is signed on for 2007.

On the track, Burton’s foremost challenge is making races. With no owner's points, he will be fighting to simply qualify for the field. Once there, he knows how to avoid trouble and get finishes. If Burton can make 30 races it will be a successful year. One possibility for Burton is using Morgan McClure as a bridge to a better ride. He spends this year getting familiar with the scene and then finds an open seat with a multi-car team. While it is nice to see one of NASCAR's good characters back in Cup action, Burton probably won't enjoy a dream season.

NASCAR Driver Preview: David Gilliland

David Gilliland			Age: 30
#38 M&M"s Ford			Crew Chief: Todd Parrott
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
14	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points	Driver Rating
1	22.1	28.3	42nd	53.4

Raise your hand if you knew who David Gilliland was before 2006? Put your hand down, liar. Prior to June 17th, very few had heard of the 30 year old from California who got his start in the Southwest Series, one of NASCAR's regional series. He started the year with a partial Busch schedule with underfunded Clay Andrews Racing. After struggling to qualify for races, Gilliland not only qualified, but started 4th at Kentucky in June. He went on to win in the biggest surprise of the year. It's possibly one of the biggest surprises in NASCAR history.

What may have been more impressive happened the following week at Sonoma. In another testament to his talent he qualified an equally underfunded #72 car for the Sonoma Cup race. It didn't garner as much attention as his Busch win, but it was an amazing feat. Consider that it was Gilliland's Nextel Cup debut on a road course and was driving against road course experts like Ron Fellows, Boris Said, Scott Pruett, P.J. Jones and Brian Simo. He qualified 31st (Simo failed to qualify) and finished two laps down in 32nd.

By August Gilliland was hired by Robert Yates Racing to replace Elliott Sadler. In less than a season, he had gone from scraping together money and attempting Busch races to a guaranteed ride in Nextel Cup. It was too unbelievable for a Disney movie.

After a rocky start filled with flat tires and several crashes, Gilliland and Parrott began to mesh. Even in the short span of fourteen races, the progress was noticeable.The first six starts his average finish was 34.8. The last eight starts had an average finish of 22.9, including two top fifteens (Talladega, Atlanta). He also ran in the top ten for the majority of the finale at Homestead before a crash.

Gilliland also showed his strength in qualifying, by starting in the top ten on three occasions. He won his first pole at Talladega in October. It was the third straight Talladega pole for the 38 car. Once the race started, Gilliland stayed out of the way and finished a season high 15th.

Yates has done a great job of surrounding Gilliland with tools to succeed. Todd Parrott is one of the best crew chiefs in the sport. He made an instant impact at Petty Enterprises last year. For all the problems RYR has had, they are still in better shape than Petty. Gilliland was a crew chief for his fatherButch, early in his career. It's a unique skill among drivers and no doubt has helped his communication with Parrott.

It was the right decision to insert Gilliland in the #38 car as soon as possible. Running for Rookie of the Year might have been nice, but it can't make up for the extra eight races Gilliland was able to run in '06. Gilliland had never raced at several of the Cup tracks, so every one of his 4,163 laps was invaluable experience. It was the same plan that accelerated Carl Edwards' path in 2004 when he debuted at the August Michigan race. Obviously Edwards entered with a dominant team, but the theory remains the same. Spending time building chemistry with Parrott puts them ahead of the rookies that take over at Daytona.

Another help in Gilliland's learning curve arrives in his new teammate, Ricky Rudd. Pairing Gilliland with a veteran, especially someone as experienced as Rudd is ideal for the young driver. Having a sounding board in Dale Jarrett and now Rudd, is a huge luxury for Gilliland and his progress. While Yates' situation looked dire this summer, they never hit rock bottom. A similar slide happened at Richard Childress Racing, resulting in significant changes. 2006 may have been that wakeup call for Yates.

The other big key to accelerating Gilliland's progress is running a part-time Busch schedule with Team Rensi Motorsports. Additional seat time, especially at unfamiliar tracks will help immensely. While Rensi isn't a Busch series power, that obvioulsy won't faze Gilliland.

Gilliland's Talladega pole qualified him for the 2007 Bud Shootout. It's a perfect way to start the season, with an exhibition race to gain more comfort. The strongest part of Yates' program is unquestionably restrictor plate races. He will certainly have a top ten car come Daytona. Yates should have a pretty good gauge on the seaon in the next three races at California, Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Looking towards next year, 20-25th in the points wouldn't be out of the question. Jarrett finished 23rd last year and it seems reasonable that Gilliland can match that. Gilliland's 53.4 driver rating was very close to Jarrett's 57.4. There is no reason why Gilliland can't improve on that. His strength figures to be speedways, especially the west coast races where he has lots of experience. Bristol and Martinsville will be educational. There will be mistakes, frustrating crashes and failures, but there is also great hope for Yates and Gilliland. Four to six top ten finishes is a realistic goal. Of course Gilliland has always exceeded expectations before, so you never know.

Past Previews:
Kenny Wallace