View from the Couch: Atlanta

Atlanta was just what NASCAR needed: An exciting race with few cautions and even less controversy. After the cheating at Daytona, lots of cautions (including disputed debris) at California, the tire complaints and wrecks at Las Vegas an uneventful weekend suited all parties well. A tight finish made things even better. Unfortunately, the racing will take a weekend or two off while the focus returns to the Car of Tomorrow. Expect widespread panic this week as several teams complain about the new car, while the few teams that did their winter homework laugh all the way to Victory Lane.

I had to tape the race and watched it last night. As a result I was more concerned with finishing the race than analyzing the various coverage elements. Many will say that’s a good thing. The one thing that stuck out to me was green flag runs give the Fox crew less time to goof around. That means they are talking about racing instead of showing needless fluff or allowing DW to go off on tangents. I though the coverage was pretty good on Sunday.

A few thoughts:
Ignore DW because Mark Martin will not make the Chase. He plans to miss the next two races and will certainly skip more during the summer. Say he misses two races that he normally scores top 20’s. Considering how he has run so far this year, that’s a safe estimate. That’s at least 206 points Martin leaves on the table. It would be tough to make that difference up. That’s also not accounting for any bad runs Martin has. Martin doesn’t seem to care, so why does everyone else want to make a big deal out of it?

-Props to Mike Bliss and BAM racing. They failed to qualify in the first three races, but Bliss was 9^th fastest at Atlanta and finished 21^st.

-Juan Pablo Montoya had a great run at Atlanta. Ganassi’s equipment is really improved and Montoya is learning quickly. After his first Cup top 5 his reward is 1000 laps of short track racing over the next two weeks. People can complain about Montoya saturation, but he is pretty exciting to watch. One of the most impressive things about Montoya’s run was the tire management. Teams were reporting minor tire issues and other cars struggled on long runs. Montoya drove aggressively but consistently. Consider that in Formula 1, the cars run one set of tires for two entire races.

-Setting aside the engine woes at California, DEI might have graduated from being an overgrown one-car team. There are early signs that they finally have two teams that can run well every week. Martin Truex Jr scored a top ten Sunday and ran well at Daytona and Las Vegas too. Dale Earnhardt Jr has spent the majority of the last two weeks in the top five, but hasn’t finished well. The finishes will come at the speedways. It’s a significant improvement over previous years where Earnhardt Jr was the only car capable of running up front every week. Now we’ll see if DEI paid attention to the Car of Tomorrow.

Who Would Have Predicted…
…That Evernham cars would have two top ten’s and none on the intermediate tracks where they usually run so well.

…That David Ragan would have more top fives (1) than Greg Biffle (0).

…The most consistent Dodge to date would be David Stremme.

…That Toyota would have this much trouble. Only one car (#44 Dale Jarrett) currently sits inside the top 35. David Reutimann can’t seem to avoid trouble. He now has 3 crashes in 3 races and sits 43^rd in points.

…That James Hylton would have as many points as Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger and more than Michael Waltrip.

…That after four races, there is no sign of a feud between any two drivers. That should change next weekend in a small Tennessee town called Bristol.

Break Out the Antacid

For a lot of teams Speedweeks this year is not very fun. Some very high profile, not to mention well-sponsored teams are not going make the Daytona 500. After single car qualifying, there are now 39 drivers locked in for next Sunday: the top 35 in owner points, Boris Said, Sterling Marlin and Johnny Sauter based on speed, plus Dale Jarrett's champion's provisional. Quick math shows there's only four spots left for the Daytona 500. Among the 22 teams on the bubble, nine have plans to run the entire schedule. Most have sponsorship, including prominent companies like NAPA, Dominos, Menards, and Red Bulll. At least five are leaving on Thursday. That means several teams will spend the next three days worrying and working on their cars to find more speed. It also means working on their answer to sponsors for why they missed NASCAR's highest profile race.

Is it possible that Thursday's Duel 150's could have more intrigue than Sunday's race? That's a stretch, but for a lot of teams it will set a tone for the season. Miss a race and it makes it much harder to enter the top 35 in points. Within the greater storyline to make the race, there are several smaller plots. Among the cars competing for the transfer spots, there are three formerDaytona 500 winners. Of the eight Toyota entries, only Jarrett and Dave Blaney have guaranteed spots. Two are certain to miss the race, but based on qualifying speeds, it will be more. Neither Toyota driver in the BudShooutout (Brian Vickers , Jarrett) did anything to show they are better in the draft than qualifying. Another problem is that one of the fastest Toyota's was Mike Skinner, a part-time entry. If Skinner makes the race, but teammate JeremyMayfield doesn't, how will Bill Davis handle that?

The two highest finishing drivers in each heat will make the race, with a few exceptions. If any of the three top qualifiers (Said, Sauter or Marlin) finish in the first two transfer spots, the next fastest qualifier makes the race, which is Jeremy Mayfield, then David Reutimann . The same would happen with the past Champion provisional. If Jarrett captures on the the transfer spots, then the provisional would fall to Bill Elliott.

Handicapping the field, Jeremy Mayfield is in good shape in Heat 1. Ward Burton and Bill Elliott have both won Daytona 500's, but can't overcome the limits of their cars. AJ Allmendinger has one plate race in the Truck Series and Team Red Bull is yet to qualify for a Cup race. It's a real long shot for Allmendinger. It is hard enough for a rookie to get drafting help, let alone a rookie with almost no stock car experience. Michael Waltrip's car was impounded after qualifying. Apparently it's not an infraction, but it does cost the team time that they can't work on the car.Waltrip is a good plate racer who is capable of hooking up with the right drafting partners. It's a big help to have his teammate Jarrett in his heat.

In heat 2, David Reutimann is a rookie, but has raced in 6 plate races in the Truck and Busch series. He was one of the fastest Toyotas and has the best chance of the Toyotas to make the field. DEI traditionally has stronger cars in race trim which should allow Paul Menard to compete better than his qualifying time suggests. JoeNemechek will hope for the same thing, and Ginn racing does have Hendrick power to boos that effort. Brian Vickers is a good plate racer but the Toyotas haven't been very strong so far. Unless he learned something on Saturday night, his chances do not look very good. The X factor as far as full-time teams are concerned is Mike Skinner. He has made two of the last threeDaytona 500's as a part time driver and was one of the quicker cars on Sunday.

All the preparation, speed and drafting partners still might not be enough. Scott Riggs had a mechanical issue during qualifying and then a problem in the pits cost him his chance in the 500. Menard suffered a flat tire in his heat last year. The unknown only adds more pressure and anxiety for the drivers leading up to Thursday afternoon. Obviously missing the first race is not a fatal blow, look at Riggs for exhibit A. The problem is there will be 12 full-time teams next week at California all trying to make the race all over again.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch Age: 28
1 win, 7 top 5's, 12 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 10.4 Avg Finish: 19.4
Points Standing: 16th Driver Rating: 86.3
#2 Miller Lite Dodge Crew Chief: Roy McCauley

Everything was new for Kurt Busch in 2006. Moving from Roush to Penske meant new cars,crew, sponsors and also brought new struggles. Aside from a win at Bristol, the season had its fill of disappointments. After making the first two installments of the Chase, Busch did not come close in 2006.

The way Busch qualified in 2006 was from a Folger's commercial: Someone has secretly switched Ryan Newman's qualifying setups with Busch's. Won 6 poles. His career total was three prior to 2006. His 10.4 average starting position was second to Jeff Gordon. The problem wasn't the starts, but rather the finishes. His average finish was a disappointing 19.4.

No matter what Busch tries, he is a lightening rod for controversy and criticism. At Bristol, his winning pass was made by bumping leader and former teammate Matt Kenseth out of the way. It was a legal move, but it wasn't popular with some drivers or fans. Two races later he was involved in a crash with the dominant car of Greg Biffle (another former teammate, ironically). The drivers settled their differences, but their girlfriends did engage in a heated exchange on pit row.

They were two of several forgettable episodes in a forgettable year for the elder Busch. A common theme during his season went like this: Start the race at the front, then suffer problems on pit road costing track position and often leading to mistakes on the track. This happened at Atlanta, the second Bristol race, and both Texas races. Other races he started up front, led laps and then faded late from the wrong adjustments.

Despite the challenges, Busch did make progress during the summer. Starting with a 2nd at Pocono, Busch scored six top tens (including 4 top fives) in seven races. He still had an outside chance of cracking the top ten heading to Watkins Glen. After sitting on the pole, Busch led 38 laps and appeared to have the dominant car. Late in the race he entered the pits just as the caution came out. He mistimed the stop by mere seconds, resulting in a penalty that sent him to the rear of the field. He finished 19th, but it ended any real possiblity to make the Chase. The rest of the season was very uneven. He would score a top five finish one week and then slog his way to a 25th place finish the following week.

Busch's results were the worst since his rookie season. The past four years Busch averaged 3.5 wins, 10 top fives and 18.25 top tens. He led 15 races but only 272 laps. A season of transition was expected, but not to such extents. Looking from the outside, it appeared Busch was inheriting Rusty Wallace's car that made the 2005 Chase. In truth, Busch had very few holdover crew members. Roy McCauley replaced Larry Carter as crew chief.

To put Busch in a bigger hole, the Penske organization made some poor decisions that hurt the performance of both cars in 2006. During the offseason the #77 program was ended, reducing Penske to two full time teams. It also reduced the amount of information collected and limited the different options for testing. The decision didn't appear based on sponsorship either; Penske has an abundance of sponsors.

The immediate performance was most influenced however by the decision to run the Dodge Intrepid during the first part of the season. After Dodge ended this option after seven races, Penske had to play catch up on the unreliable Charger. The self-inflicted wounds cost Busch and Ryan Newman any realistic chance to make the Chase.

No matter how hard Busch tries, he remains unpopular with fans. Lost in the silly things he does is the fact that he is one of the elite drivers on the Cup circuit. Given a good car he is capable of winning at any type of track. Penske's short track program is always strong and Busch might be the top driver at Bristol. He has five career wins at the Tennessee short track. He also is very strong at Pocono. He finished 2nd at both races there in 2006 and won the July race in 2005. California, Talladega, Loudon and Phoenix are also places where Busch is on the shortlist of top drivers.

In his second year with Penske and McCauley, Busch should expect improved consistency, especially in the pits. If that happens he is a favorite to make the Chase, especially with two additional spots available. Busch always runs the risk of losing his temper at the wrong time. If Penske's equipment is still lacking, Busch won't have the luxury to turn a poor car into a wrecked car too often. The speedway program remains the largest unknown, but Busch is good enough at every other track to compensate. Two to three wins and a Chase berth is manageable.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Ryan Newman

Ryan Newman Age: 29
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 7 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 11.6 Avg Finish: 20.6
Points Rank: 18th Driver Rating: 76.3
#12 Alltel Dodge Crew Chief: Michael Nelson

2006 began with optimism for Ryan Newman. He finished 3rd in the Daytona 500, his best restrictor plate finish ever. Then Penske dusted off the Dodge Intrepid for the next three races. The initial plan was to run the Intrepid at the intermediate speedway tracks the entire season. Dodge mandated all teams to run the Charger after the seventh race of the season. That set Penske's plans back, something they didn't fully recover from in 2006. Ryan Newman didn't have a pole or a top ten finish on 1.5 or 2 mile tracks. He suffered career lows in every category. By his standards, the 18th place points finish was unthinkable.

Newman had a decent summer, scoring seven top fifteens in eight races through Daytona. Things began to really sour in July. After winning his second pole of the season at Loudon, Newman was involved in a crash with Tony Stewart. Stewart was leading the race while Newman had just pitted for fresh tires. Newman was trying to pass Stewart and regain a lap, but neither let off. The result was both crashed, ruining the race for both drivers. He scored only two more top tens the rest of the season (Watkins Glen, Bristol). He had zero during the Chase.

It was also during the Chase that Newman got a new crew chief. Matt Borland took a personal leave of absence. The leave became permanent after the season when Borland moved to Michael Waltrip Racing to work with Dale Jarrett. Borland had worked with Newman since his days in the Busch series. They both emphasized the engineering tack when working on the cars. It's hard to speculate why Borland left, but things were obviously stagnant in 2006. Michael Nelson assumes the crew chief position on the #12 team.

As spotty as the intermediate program was, Penske's other areas were quite strong. The restrictor plate program improved significantly in 2006 and the road course package was arguably the top in Cup. To help on the aero-sensitive tracks, Dodge teams will have a new nose for the Charger. This is intended to reduce the debris collected on the grille. This has caused overheating issues in the past. The new nose will also make the car more neutral to changes, a major complaint and one of the reasons why Penske tried to use the less finicky Intrepid.

Many of the question marks about Newman's season rest on the management and direction at Penske. Can Penske improve or continue to stumble over themselves? In an era when every team is expanding to three and four cars, Penske contracted from three to two cars for 2006. While other teams and manufacturers emphasized sharing information, Penske tended to shy from this practice. Newman's team never talked to Rusty Wallace's. Penske insisted on perfecting the Dodge Intrepid (with terrible results) instead of aligning with the other Dodge teams to improve the Charger.

Despite his desire to outsmart other teams, Newman is a fantastically talented driver. He can handle any type of track. He is always a threat to win at Loudon or Dover and can also scored two top tens at road courses. He was even stout at restrictor plate tracks, far from his favorite race. Newman also has a penchant for crashing. He had 15 in 2006 and over the last four years he has averaged 11.25 per season. One way to reduce the chances for a crash are running closer to the front of the pack. The drivers are typically more patient and are obviously the more skilled drivers.

After a chilly relationship with former teammate Wallace, Newman and Kurt Busch appear to share information more freely. With only two teams this is vital. It's hard to predict much improvement for Newman in 2007. His strongest tracks in '06 will now feature the Car of Tomorrow. Penske has not always adapted well to changes and this could happen in 2007. Newman will still compete for wins at Dover and the road courses, but it's hard to imagine a return to the consistency he enjoyed in 2003 and 2004.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Bobby Labonte

Bobby Labonte Age: 42
0 wins, 3 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 12 top 15’s
Avg Start: 21.6 Avg Finish: 22.0
Points: 21st Driver Rating: 67.9
#43 Cheerios Dodge Crew Chief: Paul Andrews

Despite 15 years of Cup experience everything was new for Bobby Labonte in 2006. After ten seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing, Labonte got a fresh start with Petty Enterprises. He was one of several notable additions for PE in 2006. Champion crew chief Todd Parrott signed on as Labonte’s crew chief and Robbie Loomis rejoined Petty as General Manager. The moves gave the organization renewed credibility and also raised expectations for the season.

Petty Enterprises hadn’t been competitive for years. John Andretti was the last driver to score a top five back in 2001. Since that time, the company had a total of seven top tens. With a former Winston Cup winner, plus adding two Cup winning crew chiefs gave hope for drastic improvement.

For Labonte it was a chance to reenergize his career. Things weren’t bad at Gibbs, but it had grown stagnant. Petty offered a chance to contribute more than simply driving, but to help rebuild the most famous car in NASCAR.

Everyone at Petty warned that progress would be slow. It was still hard to not notice the immediate change. Labonte started 8th at the Daytona 500 and ran well until a crash with three laps left ruined his run. Then he started 4th at Atlanta and led 13 laps before his engine blew. The breakthrough finally came the next week at Bristol. Labonte deftly avoided trouble and finished 5th. He added top tens at Texas and Phoenix in the next few weeks.

Three top tens in the first eight races. It was the same number of top tens that Kyle Petty and Jeff Green combined for in 72 races in 2005. Even with swift success, it was hard to maintain the whole season. Labonte had more strong runs, but didn’t get another top ten until the July Pocono race.

In the middle of the season, Parrott announced he was leaving Petty to return to Yates Racing. It was a setback for Labonte’s team but it wouldn’t last long. Prior to the Chase, Kyle Petty hired Billy Wilburn to head the #45 team. This moved Paul Andrews to Labonte’s car. Andrews won a championship in 1992 with Alan Kulwicki.

Labonte and Andrews clicked during the Chase. In their second race together Labonte finished 7th at Dover. This began a very solid eight race stretch where Labonte’s average finish was 12.15 including two top 5’s and four top 10’s. The season ended with a crash at Homestead, his eighth DNF of the season. It was still one of the most successful seasons in the last decade for PE.

As impressive as Labonte was in his first season with Petty, the results could have been better. He suffered 8 DNF’s, including 3 engine failures. He also had a variety of bad luck ruin other runs. Crashes twice spoiled good finishes at Daytona. A bad transmission spoiled a top ten effort at Martinsville. Labonte also ran well at Richmond until his crew accidentally put the wrong sided tires on, wreaking havoc on the handling.

Team preparation is a large part of Cup racing and must be improved next year. On a team desperate for strong finishes they can’t afford these mental mistakes. Unfortunately they have less control over the engines. Leasing from Evernham guarantees good horsepower, but reliability has been an issue. Labonte lost three engines and Petty lost two during the season.

The progress of the #43 car was certainly the highlight of the season and brings greater optimism for 2007. There are still major obstacles for PE to remain competitive. Kyle Petty struggled with sponsorship last year and barely retained his spot in the top 35. Toyota’s introduction to Cup also brings additional big-budget teams that will raise the cost of competition.

Petty Enterprises made great strides in 2006, but they will have a large task in 2007. With the Car of Tomorrow arriving, will the team have enough personnel to cover both projects? It might be too large a task to hope for improvement. Maintaining their current status, especially in regards to the top 35 is very important. If the #45 falls outside the top 35 and begins missing races, that will also have a severe impact on Labonte’s team.

Labonte showed he can still drive in 2006. He is a legitimate threat to win at Martinsville and also excels at tracks like Atlanta, Pocono and Charlotte. Petty Enterprises hasn’t won a race since 1999. It is a long shot for Labonte to win a race in 2007, but more top fives and top tens would be a big success. A realistic goal is a top 20 finish in the points. It would mark the first time a Petty car finished in the top 20 since Andretti finished 17th in 1999.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Elliott Sadler

Elliott Sadler Age: 31
0 wins, 1 top 5, 7 top 10’s, 11 top 15’s
Avg start: 17.5 Avg finish: 23.1
Points: 22nd Driver Rating: 69.2
#19 Dodge Dealers/UAW Dodge Crew Chief: Josh Browne

Things happen quickly at the Cup level in NASCAR. For evidence look at the last year and a half for Elliott Sadler.
After making the Chase and winning two races in 2004, Sadler spent the first half of 2005 inside the top 10. Then he went without a top ten finish for ten races, dropping him from Chase contention. The aero issues, prominent in 2006, began surfacing in 2005. Further, Sadler’s crew chief Todd Parrott was moved to Dale Jarrett’s car for the final ten races, before Parrott moved to Petty Enterprises. This planted a seed of frustration for Sadler.

One year ago Sadler won his qualifying heat at Daytona and finished fourth in the Daytona 500. It was a nice start to a season that soured quickly. It was evident that Robert Yates Racing had fallen behind on the intermediate tracks that comprise the bulk of the schedule. Sadler and Dale Jarrett could compete at Daytona and Talladega along with the short tracks, but once the tour visited Texas or Charlotte they were back markers. In 22 races with Yates Sadler didn’t have a top ten at an intermediate track. The frustration had grown for not only Sadler but teammate and close friend Dale Jarrett. When Jarrett announced plans in May to leave Robert Yates Racing after 2006 for Toyota, Sadler also began researching his options with other teams.

After three and a half seasons at Robert Yates, Elliott Sadler moved to Evernham Motorsports in August. He left on a good note, finishing 7th at Watkins Glen in his final race for Yates. He also was reluctant to publicly discuss his parting, instead trying to make the spilt as amicable as possible.

Things began well in the #19 car too. Sadler started 2nd and finished 10th in his first race at Michigan. The strong car was reportedly due to Evernham’s personal battle with the departed Jeremy Mayfield. Whatever the case, it was still the first top ten for the #19 team. More importantly the finish returned the team to the top 35 in owner’s points.

The finishes didn’t necessarily show improvement, but Sadler’s driver ratings in the first six races averaged 83.8, with a high of 95.1 at Dover. It’s not numbers to get excited about, but much steadier than the car had run prior to Sadler. As the year progressed, the team switched to testing mode and the results suffered. He didn't score a top ten in the final eight races.

Sadler joined a team that had a brand new crew in 2006. The end of the year was spent getting Sadler on the same page as Browne and the team. It is hard to gauge the team’s progress based solely on the results. What, and how much, the team learned at the end of 2006 should show up in the first four races in 2007.

Both Sadler and Dale Jarrett felt the largest need at Yates was more engineering support. Now that both have moved to new teams, it’s interesting that each of their new crew chiefs have engineering backgrounds. How Sadler and team director Josh Browne communicate will be a huge part of any success in 2007.

In good equipment Sadler is a proven front runner. He has won at Bristol, California and Texas, but is also strong at Martinsville and restrictor plate tracks Daytona and Talladega. He has also had several strong runs at Dover, leading 186 laps, although his finishes haven’t always justified the good runs. Evernham’s intermediate program was one of the best in 2006, winning 6 races and 8 poles at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. With a full season, Sadler should resume running up front at the aero-sensitive speedways. Sadler has also developed into a very good qualifier with seven career poles.

Sadler made the Chase in 2004 and spent the first half of 2005 in the top 10, based on patiently finishing races. A monumental swoon in the summer cost him a second Chase berth and Sadler is yet to regain that consistency. His first step is finishing races. He had 3 combined DNF’s in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he suffered 7.

A new team with a different approach is exactly what Sadler was looking for. Now that he has his wish, it is up to him to get the results. Evernham is an improving organization but there are still weaknesses. Sadler is a proven driver that could surprise in 2007. A win is possible, but not expected. A realistic goal is 3-4 top 5’s and 10-15 top ten finishes. He has an outside chance at making the Chase, but realistically will probably need another year for his team to jell.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Reed Sorenson

Reed Sorenson Age 20
0 wins, 1 top 5, 5 top 10's, 11 top 15's
Points rank: 24th Driver Rating: 68.4
#41 Target Dodge Crew Chief Jimmy Elledge

For a 20 year old rookie with one previous career Cup start, Reed Sorenson's rookie season was pretty normal. Glimpses of his talent blended together with his inexperience for a top 25 points finish. He crashed often (12 times, 4 DNF's), but he also showed why he is a top driving prospect. The biggest thing Sorenson lacks is experience and seat time. A busy 2006 schedule running both full Cup and Busch schedules helped accelerate his learning curve. After winning two Busch races in 2005, last season was a mild disappointment. He finished 10th in points, with 5 top 5's and 14 top 10's. Although it wasn't the season the team anticipated, it was still valuable seasoning.

On the Cup side, Sorenson started slowly, mostly staying out of the way in the first three races. In the fourth race he scored his first top ten at his home track, Atlanta. Strong runs continued at unfriendly tracks like Martinsville (12th) and Darlington (11th) displayed his talent. In between were bumpy runs at Phoenix, Talladega and Richmond.

The combination of Sorenson and crew chief Jimmy Elledge worked well in season one. Prior to Sorenson, Elledge helped Casey Mears improve for three years. One trait of Elledge is his willingness to take risks. At Michigan in a race threatened by rain, Elledge gambled on track position keeping Sorenson out during the final pit stop. The gamble worked as rain shortened the race after 129 laps, giving Sorenson his first top 5. It wasn't a complete theft. Sorenson ran in the top ten during the latter part of the race, but the gamble did leapfrog several cars to improve his finish.

They gambled again at the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana. Sorenson nearly won the race before running out of fuel one lap short, finishing 21st. The move still made sense for a rookie simply trying to get experience and finish races. His best race of the season came at the second Dover race. Sorenson led 39 laps and was running fourth until he again ran out of gas with two laps left. He wound up eleventh, but his 112.5 driver rating was fifth best. The finish also capped a very solid seven race segment where his average finish was 17th. It was a good cross-section of the Cup scene. Races at Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, California, Richmond, Loudon and Dover run the range of difficulty and variety.

Unfortunately like every rookie not named Hamlin, Sorenson hit a rough patch to end the year. After Dover he finished 43rd, 39th, 36th, 35th and 29th. He also drew Dale Jarrett's ire at Lowe's for multiple incidents. As a result Jarrett donated pieces of his wrecked car to Sorenson's hauler.

Looking ahead to 2007 Sorenson will continue to improve with experience. Having established a notebook allows Elledge to improve setups the second time around. Sorenson gets a new teammate to replace the departing Mears. Juan-Pablo Montoya comes to NASCAR after an impressive open-wheel career. Montoya might bring a lot of help for Sorenson. His impressive resume includes championships, premiere wins and experience in several of the world's best racing series. Montoya's credibility will carry more weight when giving feedback to Ganassi. It's not that Ganassi doesn't recognize the need for improvement, but hearing it from a world class driver as opposed to a youngster like Sorenson or David Stremme has more impact.

The biggest question is still about the cars. Can Ganassi improve the equipment and enable Sorenson to run up front consistently? That will determine how successful Sorenson's second season goes. Ganassi made some changes in management during the season. If the changes work, it will help all three cars. Progress could be difficult with cloudy future of Dodge. As the year progresses, don't be surprised to hear rumors about Ganassi moving to Toyota.

Like many rookies Sorenson's weaknesses were plate tracks and short tracks. This is the type of track that sometimes even patience isn't enough. It takes time earning respect from veterans. Sorenson's strength is easily the intermediate tracks. All of his top tens came at 1.5 mile or 2 mile speedways. The results didn't show, but he also ran well at Loudon and Dover. He is scaling back his Busch schedule to focus on the Cup side in 2007. This is probably a good move, especially with the new Car of Tomorrow to worry about. Since that car won't run in the Busch series, the seat time won't transfer as directly.

Sorenson has the potential to win races, but needs consistency first. If Ganassi's equipment improves Sorenson is capable of 2 or 3 top fives. His weekly performance is still uneven, but he will eventually compete for wins and Chase berths in the coming years. A top 20 finish, something he almost accomplished in 2006, is a definite possibility.

Kyle Petty
Age: 46
Crew Chief: Bill Wilburn
#45 Wells Fargo Dodge
(0 wins, 0 top 5's, 2 top 10s, 3 top 15's)
Pts: 32nd Rating 48.7

The 2006 season saw lots of ups and downs for Petty Enterprises, and Kyle Petty's year reflected this. Petty scored two top ten finishes, but also struggled with consistent sponsorship as well as maintaining a top 35 spot. After spending much of the year outside the top 35, Petty strung together several strong finishes during the Chase to secure a starting spot for next year. The late charge may have saved the #45 from an uncertain future in 2007.
During the offseason, Petty Enterprises created serious buzz by landing some of the top talent in NASCAR. Robbie Loomis, Todd Parrot and Bobby Labonte all joined the organization at around the same time. This brought added excitement and expectations to the Petty's organization, not only for Labonte's #43 car, but also for the #45.

The season started decently as Petty finished eighth at the spring Atlanta race, and also had 18th's at Bristol, Talladega and Darlington. The summer however, was rough for Petty. From July to the start of September, he went 11 races finishing worse than 27th, including six straight races finishing worse than 30th. This tailspin pushed him outside the top 35. For his part, he made every race on time.

Prior to the Chase, Petty hired Bill Wilburn as crew chief and slid Paul Andrews over to Labonte's car. Wilburn, who has worked for Hendrick, Penske and Yates among others, brought tangible improvement during the final ten races. It started with a 22nd at Charlotte. Not a great result, but considering how he had ran the second half of the year, it was improvement. The next week at Martinsville he scored his second top ten of the year. It was his best race of the season, his driver rating was a respectable 80.1. He stayed in the top fifteen practically the whole day before closing it out in tenth. Petty followed up with at 17th at Atlanta, an 11th Texas and a 25th at Phoenix, finishing on the lead lap. Meanwhile Sterling Marlin faltered in the same stretch, opening the door for Petty to rejoin the top 35.

Anytime a team is struggling to finish races, it is a rough year. When you look at where Petty and his team were for the last five years, it's easier to notice the progress. From 200-2004, Petty had two top tens total. Since 2005, he's scored four. It proves that not only are they getting closer equipment-wise, but Petty can still wheel a car.

Two of the biggest reasons for the rebound are personnel and engines. Loomis and Andrews both won Championships as crew chiefs. Wilburn also has over 20 years of Cup experience, and famously helped David Gilliland win a 2006 Busch race with less resources than Petty has. The talent level has improved over the past year.

The other big difference was Petty's decision to switch to Evernham engines before the 2005 season. The previous three seasons Petty used Mike Ege engines, but grew frustrated with the lack of performance. The switch has given an obvious boost in horspower and speed. Evernham engines are obviously strong, but they are susceptible to failures. Petty lost two engines and Bobby Labonte had three failures. The top engine builders averaged a 3% failure rate, Evernham had 5%.

Petty is no longer a threat to win or consistently run up front. Don't discount him as a skilled driver though. Over his career he has won at short tracks, road courses, intermediate and speedways. His strength remains his experience. His 785 Career starts places him 6th all time. After Texas, he was technically the active leader in starts until Ricky Rudd unretired.for 2007. Like most veterans, this experience shows up at the short tracks like Bristol and Martinsville.

One of the most encouraging parts of Petty’s season was his success on speedways. He finished tenth and 17th at Atlanta and an 11th at Texas. If PE can continue improvement at the 1.5 and 2 mile speedways the solid results should continue.

The biggest challenge for the team is the Car of Tomorrow. PE has limited resources compared to the larger teams. They can’t simply throw additional people and money at the new project. It's a large enough task keeping up with the three and four car teams in Cup, let alone building two different cars simultaneously. PE is also at a disadvantage by not having a Busch team for collecting data.

With so many new teams entering Cup next year Petty will again walk the owners' points tightrope. He can't afford to squander his guaranteed starting spot during the first five races. If he can stay on the track his equipment should allow him to finish in the top 25 most weeks. If bad luck or mechanical gremlins strike, disaster may follow.

When the Petty’s run well, everyone associated with NASCAR benefits. Petty can drive as long as he wants to. He has earned that right with his respected status in the garage and his incredible charity work. Kyle Petty and PE as a whole play a large role in NASCAR. Although the performance has slid, there are still few names bigger than Petty in NASCAR. Here's hoping Kyle Petty continues to have the chance to drive every week.

NASCAR Driver Preview: David Stremme

David Stremme
Age: 29 Crew Chief: Steven Lane
#40 Coors Light/Lonestar Steakhouse Dodge
(0 wins, 0 top 5's, 0 top 10's, 4 top 15's)
Avg start 26.4 Avg finish 26.4
Pts: 34th, Driver Rating: 54.2
It's too bad David Stremme and the 40 car fell into a huge hole at the start of the season, because his late season progress went unnoticed. After a 28th place, lead-lap finish at the Daytona 500, it unraveled quickly for the Chip Ganassi rookie. Accidents and mechanical failures left Stremme finishing 33rd or worse in the next five races. After the Bristol race, Stremme was locked outside the top 35. Things were so dire, he was battling Brent Sherman in the standings. To Stremme's credit he qualified for every race he was entered.

From race #2 at California through the 14th race at Pocono, Stremme did not have a lead lap finish. Compounding the struggles was acrew chief switch, forcing Stremme to start over mid-season. After the seventh race at Texas, Stremme got a new crew chief. First-time crew chief Jeff Vandermoss was replaced by veteran Steven Lane. In the long run, the Stremme and Lane combination began working. In his next seven starts, he had six lead lap finishes. The only race he didn't finish on the lead lap, he finished one lap down at the July Pocono race.

While the finishes weren't eye-catching, there were signs of improvement. He qualified 4th at Darlington and 3rd at the July Daytona race. He finished a season high 11th at New Hampshire, his first top 15. He also had a highlight during an ARCA race at Michigan. Driving for Rusty Wallace, Stremme lapped the entire field en route to the win. That has to build confidence for a young driver. With some help from Scott Pruett at road courses, he rejoined the top 35 in August.

Stremme's finishes improved as the year progressed, especially during the Chase. While he couldn't score his first top ten, he did have three top fifteen finishes during the final ten races. Had another strong run at Atlanta ruined by a Kasey Kahne “brain fade ”. His average finish for the Chase was 21.9. For context, Chaser Kyle Busch averaged a 22.6 finish.

Stremme stepped into a difficult position in 2006. The #40 car hadn't been a consistent threat for three years. His crew chief Vandermoss was brand new to Ganassi after moving from Matt Kenseth's team at Roush. Worse, his teammates were Reed Sorenson, a twenty -year old rookie and Casey Mears, entering his fourth year in Cup. There wasn't a veteran presence at Ganassi making it tough to lean on anyone for information. The equipment was also not on par with the elite teams in the sport. Adding to the pressure, his sponsor Coors Light competes against two high profile drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kurt Busch. Coors will always be third to Budweiser and Miller Lite in Nascar. Not the ideal scenario to step into. Don’t feel too bad, he did win $3,422,254 in earnings.

Unfortunately, most of these issues remain in 2007. Mears left Ganassi for Hendrick Motorsports. He was replaced with Juan-Pablo Montoya. Montoya has loads of racing experience, but almost zero in a stock car. This means Stremme is the elder statesman of the team. The cars made strides on the technology side, but still are behind other multi-car teams.

The biggest key for Stremme depends on how Ganassi can improve their cars. Ernie Elliott provides reliable engines (2 blown engines all season), but not always known for pure horsepower. The organization hasn’t won a race since 2002. None of the cars have run consistently at the front over the last two years. It also hurts that Dodge is fourth among manufacturer support in NASCAR.

There is good news as well. Ganassi hired John Fernandez from Dodge to manage the racing operation. The addition of Montoya to Cup could also spur Ganassi to improve the fleet of cars. The Dodge Charger will also get a new nose, which the teams hope will solve some of the aerodynamic and balance issues from the past two years.

In the meantime, Stremme should continue to improve into a solid driver in his second season. Many of his best finishes in the Busch series came on short, flat tracks like Milwaukee and Memphis. His best finishes in Cup came on similar styled tracks like Martinsville and Loudon. These kind of tracks are less reliant on aerodnamics and more about handling and the driver. Stremme, the 2003 Busch Rookie of the Year, can at least have these tracks to fall back on while waiting for improvements at intermediate tracks. Barring another top-35 fallout, he should also get his first chances at the two road courses in Cup action. Stremme is still learning and the more seat time the better. Capturing his first top tens in Cup should happen this year and a top 30 finish in the points is likely.