Tending to the Wilting Busch Series

The Busch Series is in big trouble. So is the Truck series, but since I don’t get Speed TV, it’s rare for me to catch a Truck Race. The Diecast Dude wrote a very good post on the woes of the CTS. There isn’t a simple solution. \there are several complex issues that will take some vision, time and money. I hope to look at some of the problems with the series over the course of the season. Previously I questioned how the series can adequately develop young drivers. Now it's time to peer at the purses.

When you look at the weekly Cup entry list this year, it will top 50 every week. NASCAR officials love to point this out as evidence of the health of the sport. It’s partially true. Nextel Cup has an embarrassment of riches at the Cup level. Lots of prominent teams, plenty of big dollar sponsors and intense competition to simply make races each week.

Unfortunately the Busch and Truck entry lists are less than full fields heading to California. Keep in mind this is a companion weekend when it’s easiest for Cup teams to pull double-duty. The small fields will continue all year. Aside from the Mexico City and the Montreal Busch races, stand alone Truck and Busch fields will be even smaller.

One of the largest reasons for the Busch shortage is the prize money. It is a fraction of Nextel Cup purses. Kyle Petty won $248,050 for finishing 42^nd in the Daytona 500. That’s more than double what Kevin Harvick won ($116,200) for winning the Orbitz 300 Busch race. In fact, Harvick’s $1.5 million check for the Daytona 500 was as much as the top 26 drivers in the Busch race.

If a team wants to turn a profit it is much easier to do so in Cup. Spend a little more with a significantly greater reward. Look at part time teams like Phoenix Racing and No Fear. Mike Wallace’s 4^th place finish was worth $615, 658. That’s almost as much money that Wallace won in 23 Busch races last season. Obviously small part-time teams can’t count on a top five finish, but simply making a Cup race pays well. Boris Said made $307,375 for No Fear Racing.

The other problem is sponsors. In 2006 Harvick won nine races and the Busch Championship and still lost his sponsor. Either the Coast Guard got a lifetime supply of publicity last year, or they didn’t see the value in sponsoring a Busch car. If a Cup star and Busch Champion can’t hold on to sponsorship, how can Busch regulars hope to? The price for sponsorship in the lower levels is cheaper, but companies often prefer to move to the higher profile Cup scene.

After getting squeezed out the past few seasons by Buschwhackers, full-time Busch teams have either moved to Cup or packed up for good. Now the series will pay for that this year. There are plenty of reasons why the Busch series is struggling and likewise plenty of solutions. Increasing the prize money, especially for the full-time Busch teams, would give more incentive to stay with the series.

Airing all the races exlusively on ESPN plus a new title sponsor in 2008 is a good start. NASCAR now must ensure that the extra cash flow is properly reinvested in the Busch series and for the benefit of the series.

A few Random Thoughts from yesterday's race.

-Everyone will remember the wild finish and the multiple wrecks in the final 25 laps. That's probably good, because the first 175 laps were very boring. Maybe as boring as next Sunday's race at California.

-Don't get mad at Kevin Harvick for “stealing” Mark Martin's win. He was doing his job. Everyone else wrecked on the final lap trying to pass Martin too. As much as Martin deserves to win a Daytona 500 (and a Cup for that matter), no one was going to simply sit back and hand it to Martin. And there's no doubt Martin would be upset if anyone did sit back and serve him the win.

-People complain the caution should have been thrown. If NASCAR throws the caution, people complain that a good finish was spoiled. Damned if you do...

-In the last two years, Hendrick won five of the eight restrictor plate races. they often placed multiple drivers in the top ten. They were easily the top plate program in NASCAR. Granted yesterday's race placed a greater emphasis on handling than pure horsepower, but aside from Kyle Busch, Hendrick's big guns were never a factor. Yes, Ginn and Haas cars have Hendrick power, and were strong yesterday, but they obviously found a package that worked better than the four in-house Hendrick cars.

-Three commercials really stuck out as entertaining. The Tony Stewart Sunoco commercial where he goes to the grocery store with a fan (and climbs a shelf). Denny Hamlin racing a scooter at a retirement home. Jimmie Johnson showing his Nextel Cup to Elliot Sadler.

-Worst in-race feature: Domino's Hot lap.Fox compared the times of the top five qualifiers on an arbitrary lap in the middle of the race. It is pretty meaningless at most tracks, but a fast lap at a plate race is almost as meaningless as qualifying in the top five. It was even worse when the “winner” of the Hot Lap was Jeff Gordon, who was running 28^th at the time.

-Several full-time teams outside the top 35 had pretty good days. Joe Nemechek finished 7^th, Johnny Sauter 15^th, and Sterling Marlin 16^th. Dale Jarrett is secure for the first six races but helped his cause with a solid 21^st.

-Brian Vickers, Paul Menard and A.J. Allmendinger missed the Daytona 500, but at least they are still ahead of Michael Waltrip in the standings. Waltrip earned -23 points for his efforts Sunday.

-Lamest Quote: Mike Joy, “Can you hold your breath for 33 more laps?” Mike, that sounded a lot like something Bill Weber would ask. It's also easier to breathe with so many commercial breaks.

-I skipped the pre-race coverage, but was pleased with the race coverage. Fox didn't dwell on the cheating issues too much, and DW didn't even babble about Toyotas in excess.

-Maybe this is nitpicking. On ESPN's ticker it reads, “Kevin Harvick wins NASCAR Nextel Cup Daytona 500.” It's the biggest motorsports event in the US, and I think even the most clueless sports fan knows what sport the Daytona 500 is in. ESPN would never have to tell people that the Cardinals won the Major League Baseball World Series.

NASCAR through the lens of the wife

It’s not only because of Valentine’s Day that I say this, but my wife is pretty smart. She doesn’t really follow sports on her own time, but she is married to me. By default she has graduated beyond an elementary knowledge of sports. For instance she can identify the majority of the cars and drivers in Nextel Cup. From time to time I like to ask my wife what she thinks about current topics in sports. I simply present the facts without my opinion or editorial. It’s amazing how often she comes up with the most sensible answer. For example, I once explained how the BCS system worked in college football. She paused and then aksed, “Why don’t they just do a playoff? Wouldn’t that be easier?” Yes it would dear, yes it would.

Yesterday I told her what happened to Michael Waltrip and the other violators (she loves Kasey Kahne and Elliot Sadler, so the news hit hard for her). I explained that they ejected the respective crew chief/team director/man that sits atop the pit box, and also penalized Waltrip 100 points. Her first question was, “Why don’t they just kick the drivers out of the race?”

I think that echoes what many people think about this latest episode.

Other Thoughts:

With all of the cheating prior to Daytona, I’ve really been wondering what the motivation is. Last year it was Chad Knaus, in 2005 Todd Berrier was suspended for actions at Talladega. Gaining an edge in qualifying for a restrictor plate race makes little sense. Especially when the penalty last year was a 4 race suspension and loss of points.

I don’t like speculating and I have no concrete idea why they cheat. From what I can figure, there are two points worth mentioning. One, teams wouldn’t risk a 4 race suspension unless there was a gain greater than a fast qualifying run at a track where starting position is worthless. There has to be a good motive why teams are spending time and money on cheating. It can’t be as simple as what shows on the surface. No one would risk penalty for mere defiance.

The second point deals with the “why”. My thought is that teams are using Speedweeks as a giant test to see what will sneak past inspection in order to use these tricks at future tracks. It is possible that they try things at Daytona or Talladega for the exact reason that qualifying doesn’t matter. If something is caught, they go to the back of the line. If something makes it through, maybe a team uses a qualifying trick at a track where qualifying is more important.

Instead of my speculation, I would love to see a credential-carrying reported get the reason from the garage. On a related note, is anyone being productive today during the Duels?

NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart Age: 35
5 wins, 15 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, 24 top 15’s
Avg Start: 16.7 Avg Finish: 13.8
Points Standing: 11^th Driver Rating: 97.0
#20 Home Depot Chevy Crew Chief: Greg Zipadelli

For Tony Stewart, no season is uneventful, quiet or simple. By those criteria, it was a pretty normal season for Smoke. He won five races, stirred up controversy, fractured his shoulder blade, and missed the Chase.

Stewart’s season began in typical fashion with both success and controversy. A week after warning drivers of excessive bump drafting, it was Stewart getting penalized for ramming into Matt Kenseth at the Daytona 500. Despite damage, Stewart still finished 5^th. The following week he led 28 laps before losing an engine late. He led laps in the first nine races, but only one win at Martinsville for his efforts. It was still a solid start and many predicted he would cruise into the Chase and vie for a third title.

A funny thing happened on the way to engraving his trophy. Stewart’s summer was inconsistent and he failed to make the Chase. Stewart’s regular season was very similar to Greg Biffle’s, the driver who finished second to Stewart in 2005. Both ran very well in the majority of races, but often finished much lower than deserved. Cracks began showing in the spring at Charlotte. After two hard crashes in both the Busch and Cup races, Stewart fractured his shoulder blade. This caused great discomfort the following week at Dover. He started the race, but was replaced by Ricky Rudd during the first caution. Rudd finished 25^th.

One of the more entertaining images during the season was Stewart pounding dents out of his car after an early crash at Michigan. It was only three weeks after he injured his shoulder. He defended his trophy at the summer Daytona race, his second win of the season, but then things fell apart in July.

He was in the top five at Chicago before running out of fuel to finish 32^nd. The following week at Loudon he was leading the race and looked to have a stout car. Then he scuffled with Ryan Newman when Newman tried to get a lap back from Stewart. Both cars crashed and it was Stewart’s second straight finish in the 30’s. The following week at Pocono he again got in a dust-up, this time spinning Clint Bowyer. The crash also collected Carl Edwards, who retaliated by spinning Stewart entering the pits. Stewart was penalized but did recover to finish 7^th, but it ended a tumultuous month.

Suddenly he went from a lock for the Chase to sitting on the bubble. The final blow came at Richmond where he crashed his primary car in practice. He struggled during the race, finished 18^thth in 2005 but 6 in 2006. and barely missed the Chase. There were plenty of missed chances during the first 26 races. Stewart had two finishes worse than 30

Reduced to driving for wins, Stewart was free to experiment a little during the Chase. He won at Kansas by gambling on fuel. Then the team found a fast setup for both Atlanta and its cousin track Texas, where he won both races. Stewart had five top fives during the Chase including wins 3,4 and 5.

Aside from the disappointment of missing the Chase, Stewart’s season was impressive. He scored 5 wins for the second straight season, led the most laps, was third in top fives, second in earnings and fifth in driver rating. After a nearly flawless 2005, his 2006 effort was a pretty decent encore.

Stewart will begin 2007 like he did in 2006, a favorite to win the Cup and considered one of the best drivers in the world. The #20 team has every ingredient necessary for success. He can win anywhere; in fact there are only four current tracks where he hasn’t won. Joe Gibbs is one of the top three or four organizations in Cup and Greg Zipadelli is the longest tenured crew chief. It all points to one of the elite teams in NASCAR.

One of the tracks Stewart hasn’t won at is Talladega, but it might be one of his best. He has six second place finishes, 8 top fives and an average finish of 11.9. A win at Talladega or in the Daytona 500 would definitely add another highlight to his impressive resume.

No driver has repeated since Jeff Gordon nearly ten years ago and for good reason. There are more requirements and commitments for the current champion than other drivers. This can drain a driver and will ultimately hurt performance at some level. Without this burden Stewart could have another stellar and consistent season.

Maybe the only question mark for Stewart is the Car of Tomorrow. Gibbs and Stewart should cope well with the brand new car, but it is such an unknown that there is a chance to slip. Stewart can certainly drive any type of car on any type of track, so the new body type won’t be a problem granted Gibbs gives him adjustable cars. The only other question mark is his emotions, which can cost him at times.

Stewart will make the Chase this year. Despite last year’s struggles he still almost made the playoff field. With 12 spots, plus a few more points for each win, Stewart should coast into the Chase. Once he gets in he is an instant favorite to win it all.

Fantasy League Anyone?

Time is running out on the preseason. Speedweeks is coming very very soon. With the Super Bowl finished and hung on the clothesline to drip dry, it's finally time to focus all attention on NASCAR. Some will buy more die-cast cars, others will repaint their Casey Mears or Brian Vickers bobbleheads, and still others will begin preliminary sketches for their #3 (or #6.7) Budweiser tattoos. Personally I'm busy getting my S-10 to work in the draft on the freeway. I move the seat up a few notches, add some tape to the grill, get a car wash, and hit the interstate. It's a nice way to see how bad others have got it. Unfortunately, most drivers don't care for getting bump drafted. Apparently there are not that many NASCAR fans on my morning commute, or maybe they just don't like plate races.

This blog, along with several other great blogs, has helped to soothe my need to talk and experience NASCAR. I appreciate all the people that have read and commented in the past few months. It's kind of neat to be part of a community of sorts. Now I'm wondering if anyone is interested in joining a Fantasy league. It doesn't matter what kind of league, there are so many out there. I played Yahoo's version last season and it was simple. The drivers are slotted into three classes and you have to pick two to four drivers from each class. You can choose different drivers every week, but can only start a driver 9 times during the season. I am open to other style leagues or whatever.

If anyone is interested leave a comment or email me (mjmaruska@gmail.com). I think it could be a lot of fun and shouldn't require a lot of extra time.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Carl Edwards

Carl Edwards Age: 27
0 wins, 10 top 5's, 20 top 10's, 24 top 15's,
Avg Start: 19.3 Avg finish 15.2
Points Standing: 12^th Driver Rating:87.6
#99 Office Depot Ford Crew Chief: Bob Osborne

Carl Edwards surprised everyone by winning four races and nearly winning the Chase in 2005. It was nearly as shocking that he had zero wins and missed the Chase in 2006. That means 2007 is a rubber-year of sorts. Will the real Carl Edwards please stand up or at least backflip?

It's not that Edwards' 2006 was a complete failure. Expectations were a little too lofty for a driver with only 49 Cup starts prior to 2006. He didn't win any races and never really threatened to make the Chase. The season had an inconsistent start due to bad luck (crash at Daytona, engine at Darlington), pit problems (Atlanta) and impatience (crash at Texas). 4 sub-35 finishes in the first 11 races dug Edwards a large hole. After the Texas race, Jack Roush moved crew chief Bob Osborne to Jamie McMurray's team hoping to get the new #26 team some traction. Edwards got engineer Wally Brown as his new pit boss. The change was intended to help McMurray's team and Roush said it did not reflect on Edwards' performance. Edwards was still unhappy with the change, although the results did improve for the #99.

Edwards had three straight top ten starts and finishes after the change. Although he had several solid finishes during the summer, there were too many poor finishes mixed in. He finished 25^th at the June Pocono race, a race he won last year. He had another crash at Daytona (39^th) and struggled at Chicago (20^th). One race that really hurt his Chase chances was the July Pocono race. Edwards was collected in an incident between Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer. Realizing how the crash hurt his Chase outlook, Edwards retaliated against Stewart, spinning him while entering the pits. He was fined and placed on probation by NASCAR. Edwards' frustration continued to mount.

During the Michigan Busch race in August, things boiled over. Edwards was bumped and wrecked on the last lap of the race by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt was declared the winner and during his victory lap Edwards returned to the track to bump him. He also confronted Earnhardt in victory lane, causing more embarassment than reaching resolution. In both incidents, Edwards was the innocent party. His mistake was escalating things. Later in the year he proved he learned from his lessons. Another wreck not of his doing, this time with Casey Mears was shrugged off by a patient Edwards.

Although he didn't pull any backflips on the Cup side, Edwards did score 4 Busch wins during a 2nd place points finish. He proved he can win at different types of tracks and he should return to winning on the Cup side very soon.His best tracks are 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, California, Michigan, Atlanta and Texas. In two-plus years he has also added short tracks and 1 mile tracks to his repertoire. He also scored top tens at both road courses.

Roush Racing is very different than 2005 when they put all five cars in the Chase. Only one team has the same driver and crew chief from last season. Mark Martin is gone, replaced by inexperienced rookie David Ragan. Their vaunted intermediate program is also not the same. There were times in 2005 when Roush drivers were literally taking turns leading races. That didn't happen very much last year. Matt Kenseth was strong all season until the Chase. Edwards and Biffle had good runs, but not always at the same time. McMurray never found consistency at the intermediate tracks.

With two races left in 2006, Brown announced he would not return to Roush Racing. The opened the door for Roush to hit undo and switch Osborne back to Edwards' team. The return of Osborne is a good sign, but it is only a part of the solution for the #99 team. It is a similar situation to Dale Earnhardt Jr in 2005. After a rough season, Junior reunited with Tony Eury Jr. It was a step in the right direction, but it also took DEI time to improve the cars. It took Earnhardt most of the spring before he began resumed running up front consistently.Neither Edwards and Roush didn't suffer the sever decline that DEI did. It may not take as long, but there will probably be an adjustment period.

During the 2005 season Edwards had everything go his way. He only had one DNF and five finishes of 30th or worse. Compare that with 3 DNF's and 7 sub-30 finishes in 2006, and it's clearer how he struggled more in his sophomore season. If Roush and Edwards suffered a down year in 2006, it still wasn't that bad. He finished on a high note, with seven top tens and an average finish of 9.0 over the final ten races. Edwards is a safe bet to make the Chase and the final ten races set up very well for his stregths. Two wins is a reasonable goal, along with 10-12 top 5's and 20 top tens. That, for a change, wouldn't surprise anyone.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Greg Biffle

Greg Biffle Age: 37
2 wins, 8 top 5's, 14 top 10's, 19 top 15's
Avg Start: 14.4, Avg Finish: 18.8
Points Standing: 13^th Driver Rating: 94.9
#16 Ameriquest Ford Crew Chief: Pat Tryson

After winning a Cup best six races and finishing 2^nd in the points, Greg Biffle was on the short list of Nextel Cup contenders. Then the 2006 season got off to a rotten start. Biffle led laps in the first ten races except for Martinsville, but only had one top ten finish to show for it. He packed an entire season of bad luck in the first ten races: Crashes at Daytona and Texas. Blown engines at California and Talladega. Flat tires at Atlanta and Bristol. Ran out of fuel at Phoenix.

Biffle began getting his deserved finishes with a fourth at Richmond, followed by a win at Darlington. It was his second straight win at one of the toughest tracks in NASCAR. It also spurred a run of seven straight top ten finishes. The hot streak continued into July. After a 3^rd place at Loudon Biffle entered the top 10 for the first time all season. It wouldn't last. He suffered last lap at incidents at Pocono and Indianapolis to effectively end his chances of making the Chase. He only scored two top tens in last seven races leading up to the Chase.

The final ten races the focus shifted towards 2007. Biffle suffered three more DNF's, giving him six for the year. That marked the most since his rookie season in 2003. He still managed three top fives during the Chase, including his third straight win at Homestead. It wasn't the season many expected, but Biffle still managed to close on a strong note.

Biffle did have a slow start, but the problem was not always performance. His 94.9 driver rating was eighth best compared to his 13^th place point finish. The driver rating gives a better indication of how he ran at times. He was third in laps led, and won multiple races for the third straight season. Despite his numbers hinting at strong runs, he was not getting the deserved finishes. As the season wound down, it was obvious that Roush was in transition.

The theme for Biffle and Roush Racing in 2007 is change. After a sluggish 2006 season, changes were expected. Pat Tryson moved from the #6 car to Biffle's team to replace departing Doug Richert. Tryson was also allowed to assemble a new crew from the best members of the two teams. A change was needed, but was nudging Richert out the door the right move? Biffle and Richert combined for ten wins over the past three seasons.

Talent-wise, there is no drop off from Richert to Tryson. Tryson is a top crew chief in his own right. He captained Mark Martin to three straight Chase berths. While the talent level is the same, chemistry with different drivers is never a guarantee. Biffle's definition of loose is surely different than Martin's. It may take time for the new pairing to jell and perfect their communication.

After an almost flawless 2005 season for Roush, things didn't go as smoothly last year. All five of the Roush cars slumped at some point during the season. Excluding two wins by Matt Kenseth, Roush struggled too often at the 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, the company's unquestioned strength in past years.

Biffle has incredible car control, making him great at qualifying(15.5 career starting position) and also capable of winning at almost every track. He is best when tracks are slippery and have less grip. His ascent at the Cup level coincided with Roush Racing's dominance at the intermediate tracks. His wheelhouse is tracks like California, Michigan, Texas, and Darlington. That doesn't mean he is strictly a speedway star. He has a restrictor plate win, is excellent at Bristol and has had very good runs at Richmond, Phoenix and Loudon.

Despite Roush's struggles, the team still won six races and sent two drivers to the Chase. They have some of the deepest resources in Cup. It's a good bet that the teams will correct some of the problems from last season. With other teams expanding and Toyota entering Cup, the Competition is tougher than ever. Roush and Biffle have a smaller margin of error for early season troubles.

The biggest key for Biffle's season is how quickly he can connect with Tryson. He will have the best tools available at Roush to help him return to the Chase. Biffle is again a contender for the Nextel Cup. If the cars are improved Biffle should win at least three wins. With two additional Chase transfer spots, Biffle will also have less trouble making the Chase. Once there is a threat to win it all. If he does that, he'd also be the first driver to win Championships at all three of NASCAR's major levels.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Casey Mears

Casey Mears Age: 28
0 wins, 2 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 12 top 15’s
Avg Start: 22.9 Avg finish: 18.6
Points Standing: 14th Driver Rating: 70.8
#25 National Guard Chevy Crew Chief: Lance McGrew

A driver upgrading from the #42 Ganassi team to a top multi-car team. It’s a familiar story. After four seasons with Ganassi, Casey Mears is moving to Hendrick Motorsports for 2007. The Jamie McMurray saga last year could also be a fair indicator for what will happen with Mears.

He was the 20th ranked driver according the loop data, but 14th in the points standings. This disparity can lead to different conclusions. One is that Ganassi’s equipment is not very good and that Mears maximized his finishes by staying out of trouble. Other stats support his argument. Mears only led 3 laps total, and all were at restrictor plate tracks. This ranks him 42nd among all drivers. Every driver with at least 22 starts had more laps led than Mears. For reference Mears led 104 and 145 laps in the past two seasons. Mears only had 2 DNF’s, further supporting the fact that while he didn’t run great, he took advantage of staying on the track. Obviously the point system rewards avoiding bad finishes. It’s not fully known how well the driver ratings portray success (primarily because there isn’t a published formula). It still appears that Mears outperformed his equipment. Entering next year with a new team poses an interesting question. Was it equipment that was holding back Mears or is he simply a mediocre driver? 2007 should help answer that question.

Last season ended with Mears on the verge of claiming his first NASCAR win at any level. Many predicted Mears would finally break through in 2006. Three races in, things looked true. After a 2nd place at Daytona, Mears finished 7th and 9th at California and Las Vegas respectively. Things dried up after that. He didn’t score another until race 15 at Michigan. He finished with only 2 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. He did finally get his first NASCAR win, but it came at Chicago in the Busch series.

Although Mears 2006 season didn’t improve on 2005, there were some highlights. He scored a career best 2nd at the Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 7th in the July race. If he wasn’t consistently finishing in the top ten, at least he was finishing races and avoiding trouble. Mears managed to finish in the top 25 in 23 of the first 26 races. It’s not the type of finishes to make the Chase, but can go a long way to a top 15 points finish. With nothing to lose during the Chase, Mears gambled on fuel to finish 2nd at Kansas. He also finished sixth at Martinsville, his first short track top ten.

Now Mears moves to Hendrick Motorsports a team he is familiar with. He is close friends with Jimmie Johnson and was almost hired by Hendrick in 2003 to drive the #5 Busch car. He is certain to get better equipment compared to Ganassi.

Aside from a better ride, it is hard to blame Mears for switching teams. During the 2005 season, Ganassi originally announced plans for four teams with Mears pushed to the new team in favor of two rookies getting established rides. After McMurray’s release was worked out, Mears wound up in the #42 car. Mears’ contract status was also unknown for much of the 2005 season suggesting a tenuous relationship with Ganassi. A move to another team with close personal and professional ties, not to mention better equipment, makes perfect sense for Mears.

Mears gets his third crew chief in as many years. Lance McGrew worked with Brian Vickers for the past two seasons, winning one race. Ironically Mears is a similar storyline to Vickers: A young driver with potential that hasn’t quite put it all together weekly.

Mears is still far from a well-rounded driver. His strength is at 1.5 mile tracks like Las Vegas and Texas, where he has room to run wide open and pass people. His average finish at Vegas is 9.5 with three top 10’s in four races. He averages a 10.5 finish at Texas, including 2 top 5’s. He also is improving at restrictor plate tracks and considering the dominance of Hendrick, this should be a good program for Mears in 2007. The trouble starts when the circuit moves to tighter, challenging tracks like Bristol, Phoenix, Richmond and Darlington. His average finish at the four tracks is 28.7.

On paper switching teams makes sense for Mears. As McMurray proved in 2006, it is not that easy. It is more complex than a driver getting improved equipment. There is team chemistry, differing driving styles and numerous factors that often go unseen to the general public. The only way to have an idea is to look at the results next year and draw conclusions. Mears is good enough to improve on his eight top tens, but it could take some transition time. Maintaining his points standing would be an accomplishment, but realistically he is in for a year of regression.

2007 Driver Previews: Brian Vickers

Brian Vickers Age: 23
1 win, 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 14 top 15’s
Avg start: 16.8 Avg Finish: 19.2
Points Standing: 15th Driver Rating: 76.3
#83 Red Bull Toyota Crew Chief: Doug Richert

If Brian Vickers got his fortune told this time last year, it would go something like this:
“After four years driving for Hendrick Motorsports you will leave for a brand new Toyota team. Then you will be banned from team meetings and given the cold shoulder by teammates. On the bright you will finally get your first Cup win. The bad news is it will be one of the most unpopular wins in recent years, coming at the expense of a teammate, plus the most famous driver in the sport. Other than that, it should be a pretty uneventful year. Good Luck.”

That is Vicker’s season in a nutshell. He had a lot of positive things happen, but they were usually overshadowed by a negative consequence. To his credit, Vickers handled things with maturity and tried his best to focus on racing. The biggest story for his season was his announcement he was leaving Hendrick Motorsports. Shortly after he signed with the upstart Team Red Bull.

Vickers' 2006 season was solid but not spectacular. He scored his first win and improved two positions in the points, but it was a very similar season to 2005. He would have some nice runs coupled with several mediocre ones. In fact he didn't have back to back top tens until the 29th and 30th races. As the season progressed his finishes did improve overall. The first 18 races his average finish was 20.9, while his average in the second half was 17.5. It was even better during the Chase when he averaged 14.8, including four top tens. The other improvement forVickers was finishing races. He had a mere 2 DNF's, down from four in 2005, and seven in 2004.

2007 might be the most challenging season yet for Vickers. A brand new Toyota team has lots of questions to answer. One big asset is his crew chief, Doug Richert. Richert helped Greg Biffle won 10 races in the last three years and is highly regarded in the garage. His experience dates back to working on Dale Earnhardt's team in the early 80's. Pairing a veteran crew chief with young driver is a popular and often successful combination in Cup.

Richert's first task is ensuring Vickers makes every race. the good news is Vickers is an excellent qualifier. In 2006 he had 14 top ten starts including one pole at Texas. His career average start is 16.0. With no owners points to start this will be paramount in 2007. Vickers must make the first five races based on time. He shouldn’t have a problem, but things can happen in qualifying. A flat tire, a bobble in a turn or a bad setup could foil the best plans. A missed race will not ruin his season, but would be a setback.

At Hendrick, Vickers was able to gather information and advice from established veterans like Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. His new team will not have that luxury. Vickers teammate is rookie AJ Allmendinger. Making a switch from open-wheel racing to stock cars presents a huge challenge for Allmendinger. That places any expectations for success in 2007 squarely on Vickers.

Vickers' specialty is 2.5 mile tracks. He is an excellent plate racer at both Daytona and Talladega. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. His average finish at Pocono is 8.5, including three top five finishes. Vickers is still refining his skills at short tracks, but he does excel at the 1-mile flat tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

The move marks a fresh start for Vickers. He took a lot of criticism in his three years in the #25 car. The switch was widely questioned in the media and assumed it was based on money. Surely millions of dollars played a part, but there are plenty of reasons for Vickers to switch teams. Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that Vickers is only 23. He is a talented driver that has dealt with a lot in his young career. He won a Busch Championship before he could legally drink Busch beer. He endured the Hendrick plane crash in 2004. As long as he was at Hendrick he would be fourth priority. A switch to Toyota gives Vickers the chance to be the number one driver and be recognized for his talent instead of a cog in the Hendrick machine. It's a bold move, but at least he has the chance to shine on his own. Now the rest is up to Vickers.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch Age: 28
1 win, 7 top 5's, 12 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 10.4 Avg Finish: 19.4
Points Standing: 16th Driver Rating: 86.3
#2 Miller Lite Dodge Crew Chief: Roy McCauley

Everything was new for Kurt Busch in 2006. Moving from Roush to Penske meant new cars,crew, sponsors and also brought new struggles. Aside from a win at Bristol, the season had its fill of disappointments. After making the first two installments of the Chase, Busch did not come close in 2006.

The way Busch qualified in 2006 was from a Folger's commercial: Someone has secretly switched Ryan Newman's qualifying setups with Busch's. Won 6 poles. His career total was three prior to 2006. His 10.4 average starting position was second to Jeff Gordon. The problem wasn't the starts, but rather the finishes. His average finish was a disappointing 19.4.

No matter what Busch tries, he is a lightening rod for controversy and criticism. At Bristol, his winning pass was made by bumping leader and former teammate Matt Kenseth out of the way. It was a legal move, but it wasn't popular with some drivers or fans. Two races later he was involved in a crash with the dominant car of Greg Biffle (another former teammate, ironically). The drivers settled their differences, but their girlfriends did engage in a heated exchange on pit row.

They were two of several forgettable episodes in a forgettable year for the elder Busch. A common theme during his season went like this: Start the race at the front, then suffer problems on pit road costing track position and often leading to mistakes on the track. This happened at Atlanta, the second Bristol race, and both Texas races. Other races he started up front, led laps and then faded late from the wrong adjustments.

Despite the challenges, Busch did make progress during the summer. Starting with a 2nd at Pocono, Busch scored six top tens (including 4 top fives) in seven races. He still had an outside chance of cracking the top ten heading to Watkins Glen. After sitting on the pole, Busch led 38 laps and appeared to have the dominant car. Late in the race he entered the pits just as the caution came out. He mistimed the stop by mere seconds, resulting in a penalty that sent him to the rear of the field. He finished 19th, but it ended any real possiblity to make the Chase. The rest of the season was very uneven. He would score a top five finish one week and then slog his way to a 25th place finish the following week.

Busch's results were the worst since his rookie season. The past four years Busch averaged 3.5 wins, 10 top fives and 18.25 top tens. He led 15 races but only 272 laps. A season of transition was expected, but not to such extents. Looking from the outside, it appeared Busch was inheriting Rusty Wallace's car that made the 2005 Chase. In truth, Busch had very few holdover crew members. Roy McCauley replaced Larry Carter as crew chief.

To put Busch in a bigger hole, the Penske organization made some poor decisions that hurt the performance of both cars in 2006. During the offseason the #77 program was ended, reducing Penske to two full time teams. It also reduced the amount of information collected and limited the different options for testing. The decision didn't appear based on sponsorship either; Penske has an abundance of sponsors.

The immediate performance was most influenced however by the decision to run the Dodge Intrepid during the first part of the season. After Dodge ended this option after seven races, Penske had to play catch up on the unreliable Charger. The self-inflicted wounds cost Busch and Ryan Newman any realistic chance to make the Chase.

No matter how hard Busch tries, he remains unpopular with fans. Lost in the silly things he does is the fact that he is one of the elite drivers on the Cup circuit. Given a good car he is capable of winning at any type of track. Penske's short track program is always strong and Busch might be the top driver at Bristol. He has five career wins at the Tennessee short track. He also is very strong at Pocono. He finished 2nd at both races there in 2006 and won the July race in 2005. California, Talladega, Loudon and Phoenix are also places where Busch is on the shortlist of top drivers.

In his second year with Penske and McCauley, Busch should expect improved consistency, especially in the pits. If that happens he is a favorite to make the Chase, especially with two additional spots available. Busch always runs the risk of losing his temper at the wrong time. If Penske's equipment is still lacking, Busch won't have the luxury to turn a poor car into a wrecked car too often. The speedway program remains the largest unknown, but Busch is good enough at every other track to compensate. Two to three wins and a Chase berth is manageable.