Francespeak and a few Bristol Thoughts

A few quick thoughts before the weekend. Brian France was interviewed on Sirius this past week. The transcript is from Dustin Long’s blog. Most of his answers were very company line, vanilla stuff. He did have a few quotes that stood out to me:

On the AT&T lawsuit: “…it is kind of flattering that somebody is suing us to stay in the sport. You don’t want a lawsuit from anybody but if you have to I guess that would be one thing to think about.”
I’m sure that was AT&T’s intent. That is also why Kentucky Speedway and Texas Motorspeedway previously filed suits. It’s all about flattery.

On debris cautions: “If we think something is potentially an obstacle or a problem on the track we’re going to put the caution out every single time. We’ll be very consistent about that.”
Obviously a 10 car pileup on the last lap at Daytona does not qualify as debris. Maybe someone can keep track of proposed consistency this year.

On the Busch Series: “We’ve got a lot of potential with that series that I think we’re not really reaching even though, as we debate this internally all the time somebody’s quick to tell me it’s the #2 motorsport in the country. So when you start going ‘Let’s change this’ or ‘Let’s adjust that’ you’ve got to be a little careful because it is doing so well.”
On paper #2 sounds great. Of course that is comparing the Busch Series to the struggling IRL, and the withering series that is ChampCar. That’s kind of like saying Arena Football is the #2 professional football league in the country. It sounds great, but that doesn’t address the true problems in the series. Independent Busch teams are getting choked out, races often struggle to fill full fields, and maybe most importantly young drivers no longer have good opportunities to gain experience. But if Brian France says things are good, then everyone else must be wrong.

-Qualifying is once again the story of the day. A quick math equation: 50 cars-35 guarenteed-1 Champion provisional-6 fastest qualifying times=7 unhappy drivers and sponsors.

The scramble to make the top 35 is in high gear for drivers like Jeff Green, Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, Scott Riggs, Dave Blaney and David Reutimann. Others (Mayfield, Waltrip, Allmendinger, Vickers, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace, Mike Bliss) are merely hoping to gain exposure for their sponsors.

-Based on speeds from practice and last month’s test, Denny Hamlin looks the favorite on Sunday. Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick are also very consistent at Bristol. Watch out for Jeff Burton and Kyle Busch too. Both have run very well this year in every race. Busch has had fast cars but some bad luck in nearly every race. One thing is certain; there won’t be any snow this weekend, which hopefully means Kurt Busch will not attempt a snow angel.

-On the NASCAR blog scene, the cool thing to do is change your layout. Since I want to sit at the lunch table with the cool kids, I am also working on updating the look and location of my blog. I have planned on this for months, but I’m not always the most diligent. I hope to finish this weekend, but realistically it probably won’t happen for a little while. I’m still excited about the changes because I’m trying to personally handle as much of the design as I can. I’m in the process of learning web design, combined with dusting off my Photoshop skills. We’ll see what happens.

Random NASCAR Thoughts

Yes, I'm getting behind on my preview posts. They are coming, but lately I've been busier than anticipated. Sorry about that. In the meantime, there are a few things I've been pondering:

-Martin Truex Jr's erm, Ticket.
Truex gets arrested for public urination, which only endears him to fans more. The possiblity that he may have handed the police officer a $100 before doing his business, only enhances the story. I like Truex and like most people, think it's more humorous than harmful. It got me thinking about Kurt Busch's citation in Phoenix in 2005. The actual events prior to the ticket are pretty similar. Busch was pulled over for erratic driving after having a beer or two with dinner. He mouthed off to an officer and was arrested and cited. This also gave Roush Racing a convenient opportunity to release him from the last two races and also served the media a story to blow out of proportion during an otherwise mediocre Chase.

The differences? Truex was not involved in the Chase, his arrest occurred during the offeseason and he is held in a positive public light. Neither driver is in the right, I'm only pointing out the differences in coverage and perception over basically the same incident.

-New Point System creates new excitement.
Now drivers have two choices to obtain those delicious five extra points:
A.) Take a fourth place car and risk wrecking on the last lap to win a race.
B.) Simply stay out under yellow and jockey with David Stremme and Kyle Petty for five bonus points.

Most drivers will surely choose A. in hopes of higher ratings. Expanding the field is not a big deal, but ten was fine. At least NASCAR was smart enough to keep the point system the same for Chase and Non-chase drivers. That would have been a huge mistake as David Poole details.

-Kelly Clarkson to sing at Daytona.
I'd rather watch Steve Carell get his chest waxed. D'OOOHHH KELLY CLARKSON!

Less than 3 weeks until Daytona!

NASCAR Driver Preview: Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch Age: 28
1 win, 7 top 5's, 12 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 10.4 Avg Finish: 19.4
Points Standing: 16th Driver Rating: 86.3
#2 Miller Lite Dodge Crew Chief: Roy McCauley

Everything was new for Kurt Busch in 2006. Moving from Roush to Penske meant new cars,crew, sponsors and also brought new struggles. Aside from a win at Bristol, the season had its fill of disappointments. After making the first two installments of the Chase, Busch did not come close in 2006.

The way Busch qualified in 2006 was from a Folger's commercial: Someone has secretly switched Ryan Newman's qualifying setups with Busch's. Won 6 poles. His career total was three prior to 2006. His 10.4 average starting position was second to Jeff Gordon. The problem wasn't the starts, but rather the finishes. His average finish was a disappointing 19.4.

No matter what Busch tries, he is a lightening rod for controversy and criticism. At Bristol, his winning pass was made by bumping leader and former teammate Matt Kenseth out of the way. It was a legal move, but it wasn't popular with some drivers or fans. Two races later he was involved in a crash with the dominant car of Greg Biffle (another former teammate, ironically). The drivers settled their differences, but their girlfriends did engage in a heated exchange on pit row.

They were two of several forgettable episodes in a forgettable year for the elder Busch. A common theme during his season went like this: Start the race at the front, then suffer problems on pit road costing track position and often leading to mistakes on the track. This happened at Atlanta, the second Bristol race, and both Texas races. Other races he started up front, led laps and then faded late from the wrong adjustments.

Despite the challenges, Busch did make progress during the summer. Starting with a 2nd at Pocono, Busch scored six top tens (including 4 top fives) in seven races. He still had an outside chance of cracking the top ten heading to Watkins Glen. After sitting on the pole, Busch led 38 laps and appeared to have the dominant car. Late in the race he entered the pits just as the caution came out. He mistimed the stop by mere seconds, resulting in a penalty that sent him to the rear of the field. He finished 19th, but it ended any real possiblity to make the Chase. The rest of the season was very uneven. He would score a top five finish one week and then slog his way to a 25th place finish the following week.

Busch's results were the worst since his rookie season. The past four years Busch averaged 3.5 wins, 10 top fives and 18.25 top tens. He led 15 races but only 272 laps. A season of transition was expected, but not to such extents. Looking from the outside, it appeared Busch was inheriting Rusty Wallace's car that made the 2005 Chase. In truth, Busch had very few holdover crew members. Roy McCauley replaced Larry Carter as crew chief.

To put Busch in a bigger hole, the Penske organization made some poor decisions that hurt the performance of both cars in 2006. During the offseason the #77 program was ended, reducing Penske to two full time teams. It also reduced the amount of information collected and limited the different options for testing. The decision didn't appear based on sponsorship either; Penske has an abundance of sponsors.

The immediate performance was most influenced however by the decision to run the Dodge Intrepid during the first part of the season. After Dodge ended this option after seven races, Penske had to play catch up on the unreliable Charger. The self-inflicted wounds cost Busch and Ryan Newman any realistic chance to make the Chase.

No matter how hard Busch tries, he remains unpopular with fans. Lost in the silly things he does is the fact that he is one of the elite drivers on the Cup circuit. Given a good car he is capable of winning at any type of track. Penske's short track program is always strong and Busch might be the top driver at Bristol. He has five career wins at the Tennessee short track. He also is very strong at Pocono. He finished 2nd at both races there in 2006 and won the July race in 2005. California, Talladega, Loudon and Phoenix are also places where Busch is on the shortlist of top drivers.

In his second year with Penske and McCauley, Busch should expect improved consistency, especially in the pits. If that happens he is a favorite to make the Chase, especially with two additional spots available. Busch always runs the risk of losing his temper at the wrong time. If Penske's equipment is still lacking, Busch won't have the luxury to turn a poor car into a wrecked car too often. The speedway program remains the largest unknown, but Busch is good enough at every other track to compensate. Two to three wins and a Chase berth is manageable.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Ryan Newman

Ryan Newman Age: 29
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 7 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 11.6 Avg Finish: 20.6
Points Rank: 18th Driver Rating: 76.3
#12 Alltel Dodge Crew Chief: Michael Nelson

2006 began with optimism for Ryan Newman. He finished 3rd in the Daytona 500, his best restrictor plate finish ever. Then Penske dusted off the Dodge Intrepid for the next three races. The initial plan was to run the Intrepid at the intermediate speedway tracks the entire season. Dodge mandated all teams to run the Charger after the seventh race of the season. That set Penske's plans back, something they didn't fully recover from in 2006. Ryan Newman didn't have a pole or a top ten finish on 1.5 or 2 mile tracks. He suffered career lows in every category. By his standards, the 18th place points finish was unthinkable.

Newman had a decent summer, scoring seven top fifteens in eight races through Daytona. Things began to really sour in July. After winning his second pole of the season at Loudon, Newman was involved in a crash with Tony Stewart. Stewart was leading the race while Newman had just pitted for fresh tires. Newman was trying to pass Stewart and regain a lap, but neither let off. The result was both crashed, ruining the race for both drivers. He scored only two more top tens the rest of the season (Watkins Glen, Bristol). He had zero during the Chase.

It was also during the Chase that Newman got a new crew chief. Matt Borland took a personal leave of absence. The leave became permanent after the season when Borland moved to Michael Waltrip Racing to work with Dale Jarrett. Borland had worked with Newman since his days in the Busch series. They both emphasized the engineering tack when working on the cars. It's hard to speculate why Borland left, but things were obviously stagnant in 2006. Michael Nelson assumes the crew chief position on the #12 team.

As spotty as the intermediate program was, Penske's other areas were quite strong. The restrictor plate program improved significantly in 2006 and the road course package was arguably the top in Cup. To help on the aero-sensitive tracks, Dodge teams will have a new nose for the Charger. This is intended to reduce the debris collected on the grille. This has caused overheating issues in the past. The new nose will also make the car more neutral to changes, a major complaint and one of the reasons why Penske tried to use the less finicky Intrepid.

Many of the question marks about Newman's season rest on the management and direction at Penske. Can Penske improve or continue to stumble over themselves? In an era when every team is expanding to three and four cars, Penske contracted from three to two cars for 2006. While other teams and manufacturers emphasized sharing information, Penske tended to shy from this practice. Newman's team never talked to Rusty Wallace's. Penske insisted on perfecting the Dodge Intrepid (with terrible results) instead of aligning with the other Dodge teams to improve the Charger.

Despite his desire to outsmart other teams, Newman is a fantastically talented driver. He can handle any type of track. He is always a threat to win at Loudon or Dover and can also scored two top tens at road courses. He was even stout at restrictor plate tracks, far from his favorite race. Newman also has a penchant for crashing. He had 15 in 2006 and over the last four years he has averaged 11.25 per season. One way to reduce the chances for a crash are running closer to the front of the pack. The drivers are typically more patient and are obviously the more skilled drivers.

After a chilly relationship with former teammate Wallace, Newman and Kurt Busch appear to share information more freely. With only two teams this is vital. It's hard to predict much improvement for Newman in 2007. His strongest tracks in '06 will now feature the Car of Tomorrow. Penske has not always adapted well to changes and this could happen in 2007. Newman will still compete for wins at Dover and the road courses, but it's hard to imagine a return to the consistency he enjoyed in 2003 and 2004.