Surprises, quasi-surprises and other thoughts

This morning there is a near consensus among NASCAR writers and bloggers. David Gillialand's pole win is a surprise. I've even seen it dubbed a Cinderella story. Did everyone forget that Gilliland won the last restrictor plate pole at Talladega last October? Or that Yates Engines have captured six of the last nine poles at Talladega and Daytona? RYR's performance has declined in the past few seasons, but the one area that is always top notch is their plate program. It is somewhat surprising that Boris Said qualified fifth, but he won the July pole last year. I thought the bigger surprise was how well the Ganassi cars fared. Both Juan-Pablo Montoya and David Stremme were fast, although something happened with Reed Sorenson's car during the second lap.

-The other prevalent thought among writers and bloggers is that the Bud Shootout proved Tony Stewart will have a big season. I agree Stewart will be a threat in 2007, but not because he won the Shootout. The win enforced that he's a great plate driver and had the best backup car among the field. It's the first action during the season and people love drawing conclusions, but the Bud Shootout has very little bearing on the season. In fact the Daytona 500 itself has little impact on the shape of the season. Races 2-8 will be the real barometer. California, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Texas will show who has the best intermediate package. Bristol, Martinsville and Phoenix will show who did their homework on the Car of Tomorrow. We'll hear plenty about how Stewart has momentum or the Daytona 500 is now a title threat, but ignore it. Jimmie Johnson didn't win or lose the Cup last year because he won the 500. He won because his team was good everywhere.

-I can understand Michael Waltrip's need to push the rules envelope to find a speed advantage. I never understand teams inside the top 35 that try to cheat at restrictor plate tracks, especially during Daytona 500 qualifying. Unless Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth really wanted to win the pole, there is no point in cheating. First, they are assured a place in the race. Second, single-car qualifying beyond the top two spots has almost zero bearing on your starting position for the 500. And third, aside from pit selection, the starting position means very little in a plate race. Yet people constantly try to get away with modifications every year.

-Fox's new 3D model to show crashes sounded good on paper. Then they used it during the last lap crash in the Bud Shootout. It showed nothing that the on-board cameras didn't. In fact it was about as cutting edge as the commercial that re-enacts the 1979 Daytona 500. Maybe it will improve during the season.

-In one weekend, I'm already tired of the DirecTV ad with Dale Jr. Ditto for the Subway ad with Tony Stewart. Each ad must have played 10 times each over two days. Stewart (and Michael Strahan) has to introduce his full name, but Jared Fogel just says, "Hi, I'm Jared." Does that bother anyone else? Who is the bigger star here? It's time for some new NASCAR commercials.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Clint Bowyer

Clint Bowyer Age: 26
0 wins, 4 top 5's, 11 top 10's, 16 top 15's
Avg start: 20.3 Avg finish 19.7
Points Standing: 17th Driver Rating: 74.9
#07 Jack Daniels Chevy Crew Chief: Gil Martin

Bowyer wins the mythical award for Most Surprising Rookie. Sure Denny Hamlin won races and made the Chase, but nothing was expected out of Bowyer. He stayed out of trouble most of the year and steadily improved his finishes. Entering 2007 he is suddenly a legitmate Chase candidate. It is a pretty sharp ascent for Bowyer, who had one Cup race prior to 2006.

Bowyer benefitted from excellent timing. He entered the #07 ride at a time when RCR returned to elite status at the Cup level. The three Childress cars combined for 1 win and only six top fives in 2005. After drastic improvements in every department, RCR cars scored 6 wins and 26 top five finishes in 2006. Bowyer made the most of the tools at his disposal. He began the season with a top ten at Daytona, followed by two top fifteen finishes at California and Las Vegas. His first big breakthrough came at Phoenix. He led 21 laps before finishing 5th. Teammate Kevin Harvick won the race and Jeff Burton finished ninth. It was the first sign that RCR's short track and 1 mile speedway program was one of the best. This strong program was reinforced by Bowyer's 10th at Richmond and later led 23 laps at Loudon before a disappointing 27th result.

RCR's progress spilled over to the intermediate tracks where Bowyer was most comfortable. He scored top five finishes at Indy, California and Texas. He also led 43 laps at his home track Kansas speedway. He hit the wall while leading and spent the rest of the day regaining the lost ground finishing 9th. Bowyer is definitely a threat to win a speedway race in 2007.

The season was not always smooth or easy. Had a good run at Pocono but was spun out by Tony Stewart. A furious Bowyer waited for Stewart in the pits, but nothing else happened. Stewart claimed the rookie was holding him up, so he moved him. Stewart was penalized a lap, but wound up finishing 7th. Bowyer wound up 41st. When he wasn't getting "taught" lessons by veterans, Bowyer did a nice job of earning respect. He scored top tens at both Daytona races, a place where rookies don't always get support in the draft. He led laps at 8 races and ran in the top ten at several others. The more time spent at the front of the pack, the sooner veterans get accustomed to rookies.

Aside from great equipment, RCR had several factors in place to help Bowyer's transition to Cup. His crew chief Gil Martin moved with Bowyer from the Busch series. Martin had been a Cup crew chief for RCR prior to his role with Bowyer. For a rookie driver, this is a big plus to have an experienced crew chief making the right adjustments and knowing what works. The other big help was Bowyer's two veteran teammates. Harvick and Burton both have great insight and experience in the series. Having a veteran sounding board is a big part of figuring out how to drive at NASCAR's highest level.

To get Bowyer additional seat time, RCR also ran a full Busch sechedule plus select truck races. He won the fall race at Dover. If not for Harvick, Bowyer certainly could have won more Busch races. He did score 12 top fives and 17 top tens to finish 3rd in points. He also won the fall truck raceat Texas after sitting on the pole. The only thing missing now is a Cup win to add to his resume.

So what will happen to the #07 in '07? The biggest project is the Car of Tomorrow. RCR is spending a lot of time and money to maintain their edge, and the CofT is no exception. This could propel all three RCR cars even further beyond the competition. Some team is going to have a large advantage on the CofT tracks, and it's very possible RCR becomes that team.The intermediate program should be strong again, meaning Bowyer is a good candidate to pick up a win at one of the tracks. The most likely places are California, Texas or Kansas. He is also very solid at Dover. Bowyer can afford improvement at road courses.For some reason Michigan has also been a weak spot for Bowyer. He has never scored a top ten in Cup or Busch.

The biggest thing for Bowyer is improving his consistency. He has strong equipment and a good crew chief in Martin. If Boywer can turn some of the top fifteens into top tens, he can definitely improve his 18th place standing. A top ten spot is a big jump. Winning a race is the first hurdle. Real hardware is surely preferred to winning mythical Most Surprising awards.

Tweaking the Chase or Tweaking off Fans?

One of the big changes expected this year is modifications to the Chase. One is a tweaking of the point system. That is a large task, and is a lot to chew on (I’ll try to break it down in another entry). The other expected change is opening up the Chase field to more drivers. The current limit of ten drivers will apparently rise to at least 12. That means that over quarter of the field is eligible for the Chase. Under the current model NASCAR’s playoff is the most elite of the professional sports with a playoff. Of the major sports, which NASCAR considers itself, only NCAA men’s basketball has a smaller percentage of teams make its playoff, and that is only because Division 1 basketball has 334 teams.

NCAA Football 64 of 117=54.7%
NBA 16 of 30=53.3%
NHL 16 of 30=53.3%
NFL 12 of 32=37.5%
MLB 8 of 30=26.6%
NASCAR 10 of 43=23.2%
NCAA D1 Basketball 65 of 334=19.4%

It’s basic economics: the fewer spots available the more prestigious each spot is. Increasing the number of drivers also increases the chances of an undeserving team walking away with the title. Jeff Gordon won three of the first nine races in 2005. After that he was wildly inconsistent during the summer. He did not make the Chase and didn’t deserve to. If the field is widened, Gordon makes it in, along with Elliott Sadler who had 0 wins, and 1 top five after Richmond. That’s a very diluted field. What happens if Gordon got hot and scored the most points in the last ten races? The 26-race “regular season” should count for something too.

The current ten-driver ceiling also allows for any driver within 400 points of the leader. If a driver is that close to the top teams, he deserves to make the Chase. In three years that has not happened. That is pretty good evidence that ten drivers (or less) is a natural limit.

The motive for expanding the playoffs is granting more exposure to more sponsors. Sponsors of cars that miss the Chase probably do not get the return on their investment that the top cars do. It’s a valid point, but Chase or not, the top cars will always get more attention. They shouldn’t have the power to dictate how a championship is decided.

Instead of appeasing the sponsors with more Chase slots, how about NASCAR pressuring the TV networks to make the coverage less Chase heavy? If Jimmie Johnson is currently running 22nd and a non-Chase driver is leading the race, show the leader. If Matt Kenseth struggles all day, it is not a story that needs constant coverage. Take that camera and focus it on Dave Blaney running fifth.

There are plenty of ways to get exposure during the Chase. Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle garnered attention by winning races. Brian Vickers captured the spotlight by wrecking the most popular driver plus his teammate. And he won a Chase race. Not everyone can make the Chase or win races. Michael Waltrip crashed early, ensuring an interview to drop sponsors’ names.

This move also poses the risk to non-Chase races. Races like Bristol, California and Richmond have added importance as the final races before the Chase. With more teams assured spots, there is less drama. This past season at Richmond Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart and Mark Martin all dangled off the edge of a cliff. One was guaranteed to fall. With the new system none of the three would really sweat as long as they finished the race.

Maybe the biggest problem I have with changes to the Chase is the timing. The Chase was only implemented three seasons ago. Constant tweaking will only do harm. Some years the Chase will be great (2004), some years the best driver will dominate (2005) and some years it will be dull (2006). It happens in all sports, but NASCAR is the only one that seems too impatient to let things solidify. If the sport’s leaders can’t sit still, how can they expect fans to?

It's reaching crunch time for the driver previews. I'm down to the top 20 drivers plus some of the top rookies. I hope you've enjoyed them as much as I have. I will continue with the previews again on Monday. There are so many other things to cover I needed a quick break. With real NASCAR news begins cropping up again (ie something other than family feuds and drivers falling off golf carts.) there are a few things to say.

NASCAR Driver Preview: JJ Yeley

JJ Yeley Age 30
0 wins, 0 top 5’s, 3 top 10’s, 9 top 15’s
Avg start 21.2, avg finish 25.0
Points Rank: 29th Driver Rating: 66.5
#18 Interstate Batteries Chevy Crew Chief: Steve Addington

Why can’t you be more like your brothers? That must be how JJ Yeley feels when compared to his teammates. Yeley’s plight is similar to a younger sibling with two older brothers: a high school quarterback and a straight A student. Sure he struggled in his rookie year, but look who he is compared to. Denny Hamlin won two races and made the Chase in his rookie year. Tony Stewart has two Championships and won 5 races for the second straight year.

In other words, Yeley had an average rookie season, but is teammates with arguably the best driver in NASCAR, and the driver with one of the best rookie seasons ever. There is nothing wrong with being a normal rookie. Positives (three top 10's, nine top 15's) laced with negatives (7 DNF's) summarizes Yeley's season nicely. A further look shows Yeley’s point standing was 29th, but his composite driver rating was 25th. Like most drivers with ratings that outperform their points, the reason was wrecks. He had 17 total crashes, good for 7 DNF's and 16 sub-30 finishes. In a short time he has already acquired a reputation for wadding sheetmetal.

All rookies will find trouble with one or more veterans during a long year. For most of the season Yeley avoided this trouble. Unfortunately he made a rookie mistake at the worst possible time. During the October race at Charlotte, Yeley collided with Chase contender and popular veteran Mark Martin. The scary crash cost Martin a shot at his first title. Yeley took some heat over the incident, especially since it was his third straight DNF from a wreck. Despite all the frustrations and bad finishes, he still wasn't as bad as Jason Leffler.

Joking aside, Yeley has serious talent and a resume to match. His open wheel background is similar to Stewart’s. They are the only two drivers to win the USAC Triple Crown. Yeley also set a USAC record with 24 wins during the 2003 season, breaking AJ Foyt's record. Yeley obviously has talent and was personally recommended to Gibbs by Stewart.

There were several examples of Yeley's talent in 2006. He started 4th at California, ran in the top ten the entire day finishing 8th. It was also his highest rated race with a 91.9. In July he finished 10th, 12th and 11th in a three race span at Chicago, Loudon and Pocono respectively. Based on the season driver ratings, Yeley's average running position was 22nd. This was better than Reed Sorenson and right behind Martin Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer. He also finished fifth in the Busch series standings with nine top 5's and 22 top 10's.

Frequent crashes can make for a long season, but they aren't a barometer for a driver's career. Numerous young drivers have dealt with the same thing and grew out of it once experience caught up with talent. Kasey Kahne is the most recent example. Kahne has a similar sprint car background.

Yeley's biggest tool for improvement is seat time. For the second straight season, Yeley will run both full Cup and Busch schedules. This year he will drive in Busch in James Finch's #1 car. Any seat time is valuable for Yeley, but it could be beneficial in another way. Finch is not a top Busch team and it will require Yeley's skill and more importantly patience to succeed.

If you want an idea how Yeley might do, compare his rookie season to Brian Vickers'. Vickers showed speed at times, but also frequently crashed his top-flight equipment. He had four top tens compared to Yeley's three. Vickers settled down in his second year, had some good runs and showed overall improvement. For Yeley to get 7-9 top tens plus 1 or 2 top 5 finishes is reasonable.

Yeley is a very good qualifier. He had nine top ten starts in addition to three Busch poles. It wouldn't be surprising if Yeley won a Cup pole next year. Right now his best tracks are speedways like California, Texas and Chicago. Over time, places like Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix could fit his style well too.

At 30, Yeley is not a young gun like most of the 2006 rookies. Does that make 2007 more urgent? The good news is probably not. That is not Joe Gibbs' style. One of the strengths of Gibbs Racing is the continuity. Tony Stewart has had the same crew chief for almost a decade. Interstate Batteries is a part of that continuity and it's doubtful they will demand immediate results that other more high-profile sponsors might. That said, Yeley can't get too comfortable. Aric Almirola is driving for Gibbs in Busch in 2007. If things go well, he could be Cup-ready soon.

Progress will come on 2007, but accidents and mistakes will still temper the season. If Yeley smooths out the rough spots, he could jump up to the low 20's in points. Year three will be the real chance for Yeley to make a splash.