2007 Cup Predictions (bookmark this for crow-eating purposes)

I realize that my top ten driver and rookie previews will go unfinished. While I'm disappointed with myself, it was fun to run through over 30 drivers leading up to the top ten. It was a combination of other commitments, the feeling that I was writing the same thing for every driver, and also the fact that most NASCAR fans know plenty about the top ten drivers.

I've managed to wait until the very last minute before making my 2007 predictions prior to Daytona. I got five out of ten last year and expect about the same this year.

Predictions for the 12 Chasers:
#1 Martin Truex Jr.-The more I think about him, the more I'm convinced he is going to have a big year. Truex is strong at most types of tracks and the team now has a better handle on setups and in-race adjustments.

#2 Kurt Busch-Last year was a transition year for both Busch and Penske Racing. Busch is one of the five best drivers in the sport. If he can finish races as well as he starts them, watch out.

#5 Kyle Busch-Some people, including Kurt, believe Kyle is the most talented Busch boy. One question for the #5 team is how they interact with the new team behind the #25 car, including Casey Mears and new crew chief Darian Grubb. He will contend for the Cup, but fall just short.

#07 Clint Bowyer-It's a safe bet that he will win a race in 2007. He took full advantage of RCR's improved equipment, especially on the intermediate tracks. The biggest key for Bowyer is the short tracks, where he will need more patience.

#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr-Look past the contract squabble. Earnhardt and Eury got the job done last year. If they stay on top of the Car of Tomorrow it could be a title contending team.

#9 Kasey Kahne-A new nose for the Charger might help neutralize the cars on speedways. Kahne still needs to hold up his end of the consistency stick by reducing the number of late-race crashes.

#16 Greg Biffle-New crew chief Pat Tryson rebuilt the crew for the 16 car. Things aren't perfect at Roush, but they're still good enough to send drivers to the Chase.

#20 Tony Stewart-Smoke is the trendy pick to win everything this year. There is no reason to think he won't dominate, but it's not guaranteed either.

#24 Jeff Gordon-Gordon and Steve Letarte have the best resources in Cup. The problem is there are too many small holes in their program that take him down a notch compared to Stewart, Johnson or Harvick.

#29 Kevin Harvick-Harvick proved in 2006 that he is an elite driver. Not only did he finally have consistent equipment from RCR, but he also didn't lose his emotions like he had in previous years. Their diligence on the Car of Tomorrow gives Harvick an edge at the mile and less tracks.

#48 Jimmie Johnson-Like Stewart, there is no reason why Johnson can't win the Cup. He should win several races and be extremely consistent, but it is just too hard to repeat.

#99 Carl Edwards-Will there be a backflip this year? Missing the Chase and reuniting with Bob Osborne should allow Edwards to return to form.

On the outside looking in (otherwise known as the drivers that make the Chase when France expands to 15 in 2008):
#17 Matt Kenseth- Things were not right on the #17 car at the end of the season. It might be time for a makeover for the team.
#11 Denny Hamlin- Hamlin's 2006 season was divine. Even when he spun in the grass he could still recover to win the race. Despite top-notch Gibbs equipment, Hamlin will eventually run into a slump this season.
#42-Juan-Pablo Montoya- He'll crash and struggle some in Ganassi equipment, but he may also be this year's Denny Hamlin. While other rookies struggle to qualify, he's busy racing for top tens right off the bat.

And the winner is...
The biggest unknown is the Car of Tomorrow. Five of the Chase races will feature the new ride. The team that figures out how to get the car to turn well is going to win the Chase. RCR has spent a lot of energy and money to ensure they are prepared for the new car. The #29 team was the best at flat 1-mile tracks where getting the car to roll through the corners is vital. That is why Kevin Harvick will have an edge on other teams. It will make the difference for him to capture his first championship at the Cup level.

Tweaking the Chase or Tweaking off Fans?

One of the big changes expected this year is modifications to the Chase. One is a tweaking of the point system. That is a large task, and is a lot to chew on (I’ll try to break it down in another entry). The other expected change is opening up the Chase field to more drivers. The current limit of ten drivers will apparently rise to at least 12. That means that over quarter of the field is eligible for the Chase. Under the current model NASCAR’s playoff is the most elite of the professional sports with a playoff. Of the major sports, which NASCAR considers itself, only NCAA men’s basketball has a smaller percentage of teams make its playoff, and that is only because Division 1 basketball has 334 teams.

NCAA Football 64 of 117=54.7%
NBA 16 of 30=53.3%
NHL 16 of 30=53.3%
NFL 12 of 32=37.5%
MLB 8 of 30=26.6%
NASCAR 10 of 43=23.2%
NCAA D1 Basketball 65 of 334=19.4%

It’s basic economics: the fewer spots available the more prestigious each spot is. Increasing the number of drivers also increases the chances of an undeserving team walking away with the title. Jeff Gordon won three of the first nine races in 2005. After that he was wildly inconsistent during the summer. He did not make the Chase and didn’t deserve to. If the field is widened, Gordon makes it in, along with Elliott Sadler who had 0 wins, and 1 top five after Richmond. That’s a very diluted field. What happens if Gordon got hot and scored the most points in the last ten races? The 26-race “regular season” should count for something too.

The current ten-driver ceiling also allows for any driver within 400 points of the leader. If a driver is that close to the top teams, he deserves to make the Chase. In three years that has not happened. That is pretty good evidence that ten drivers (or less) is a natural limit.

The motive for expanding the playoffs is granting more exposure to more sponsors. Sponsors of cars that miss the Chase probably do not get the return on their investment that the top cars do. It’s a valid point, but Chase or not, the top cars will always get more attention. They shouldn’t have the power to dictate how a championship is decided.

Instead of appeasing the sponsors with more Chase slots, how about NASCAR pressuring the TV networks to make the coverage less Chase heavy? If Jimmie Johnson is currently running 22nd and a non-Chase driver is leading the race, show the leader. If Matt Kenseth struggles all day, it is not a story that needs constant coverage. Take that camera and focus it on Dave Blaney running fifth.

There are plenty of ways to get exposure during the Chase. Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle garnered attention by winning races. Brian Vickers captured the spotlight by wrecking the most popular driver plus his teammate. And he won a Chase race. Not everyone can make the Chase or win races. Michael Waltrip crashed early, ensuring an interview to drop sponsors’ names.

This move also poses the risk to non-Chase races. Races like Bristol, California and Richmond have added importance as the final races before the Chase. With more teams assured spots, there is less drama. This past season at Richmond Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart and Mark Martin all dangled off the edge of a cliff. One was guaranteed to fall. With the new system none of the three would really sweat as long as they finished the race.

Maybe the biggest problem I have with changes to the Chase is the timing. The Chase was only implemented three seasons ago. Constant tweaking will only do harm. Some years the Chase will be great (2004), some years the best driver will dominate (2005) and some years it will be dull (2006). It happens in all sports, but NASCAR is the only one that seems too impatient to let things solidify. If the sport’s leaders can’t sit still, how can they expect fans to?

It's reaching crunch time for the driver previews. I'm down to the top 20 drivers plus some of the top rookies. I hope you've enjoyed them as much as I have. I will continue with the previews again on Monday. There are so many other things to cover I needed a quick break. With real NASCAR news begins cropping up again (ie something other than family feuds and drivers falling off golf carts.) there are a few things to say.