Trouble In Turn 2

I'm Moving

2007-04-09T18:26:00.000-07:00

The time is finally here, my blog finally has a home of its own: troubleinturn2.mikemaruska.com. Stop by and tell me what you think.

A Look Ahead to Texas

2007-04-09T18:20:00.000-07:00

After three weeks of racing or testing the CoT, the Cup drivers revert to the other car and head to Texas. Last year’s two races at Texas produced good racing and plenty of off-track controversy too. Unfortunately the controversies were the prevalent topics instead of the racing.

After Kurt Busch and Greg Biffle wrecked on the track last spring, their girlfriends exchanged words on pit row. Biffle’s girlfriend Nicole Lunders approached Busch’s pit box to discuss things with Eva Bryan, Busch’s fiancée. The entire event lasted thirty seconds, no punches or objects were thrown , but somehow that was the lasting image from Texas. The actual race had some decent racing including a pretty good late race battle for the lead between Tony Stewart and eventual winner Kasey Kahne.

Stewart dominated the fall race with Jimmie Johnson finishing second to pull closer to his first Nextel Cup. The race was overshadowed again by a crash and post-race incident. During the race Scott Riggs got loose and was bumped into the wall by Kevin Harvick. After the race one of Riggs’ crew members confronted Harvick and his wife Delana. After some words for Harvick, and no doubt a few retorts from Harvick, the crew member shoved Harvick from behind causing both Harvicks and a NASCAR official to fall down. The crew member was suspended for the rest of the year. Again this was the main topic in NASCAR on Monday morning.

-Here’s hoping this weekend’s race produces good, near-clean racing without the off-track drama. Texas gives teams a chance to show off a new batch of cars. Toyota was very poor on speedways at the first three intermediate tracks. This will be their first opportunity to roll out new cars since the start of the season. Can the second fleet of Camrys move Toyota forward?

-Look at the April schedule and then try to convince me it would be fun to be a crew member. The month began with a Car of Tomorrow race at Martinsville. It’s a 97 mile trip if the team returned to the shop after the race. Sunday’s race was immediately followed by a test at Richmond two day s later. That’s another 460 miles round trip.

After a weekend off to prepare their speedway cars, the teams must drive 964 miles to Texas with the older car. The bigger teams have multiple haulers so while the older car is returning to the shop (I’m not sure if every team has this luxury), another hauler will tote the CoT cars 1795 miles across the country to Phoenix. Not only is it a long trip, the Phoenix race is on a Saturday night, moving the entire schedule up by a day. After the night race, it is back to North Carolina to prepare and load the restrictor plate car to Talladega with the knowledge that the car will most likely get torn up and require body work upon its return to the shop. After another 336 miles each way to Alabama, the month is finished.

That’s five tracks, three different cars and 6747 miles traveled during April. That’s the equivalent of running 2698.8 laps at Daytona, although to the crews it probably feels more like running laps at Pocono. For context consider that the four races in April contain 1,562 miles. Six times the travel to ensure a good show on Saturday night or Sunday afternoon.

April is an exciting month of racing for fans, but is no doubt grinding for teams and crews. At least May is less ragged with every race in the southeast, including two weekends in Charlotte. Hopefully crew members were able to enjoy Easter weekend with their families.

-Question of the Day: Would any driver look somewhat normal in a cowboy hat, six shooters and a firesuit?

NASCAR notes during an off-week

2007-04-06T08:39:00.000-07:00

-According to SI.com's Tim Tuttle four good races out of six constitutes a comeback. Dale Earnhardt Jr got caught up in a crash at Daytona (which I'm told happens pretty frequently at that track), and then lost an engine at California. Since then he has a driver rating of 104.6 and sits 11^th in points. Lots of writers make the same assumptions especially when Earnhardt Jr is involved. Jeff Gordon had 4 DNF's prior to last season's Chase, but it was not really noticed because they occurred during the middle of the summer. Somehow DNF's at the beginning of the season are viewed as crushing blows that no driver can recover from. Every race pays the same amount of points.

-Dr Z puts Chrysler up for sale. That is sure to rekindle rumors of Dodge exiting from NASCAR. Until they are sold it is hard to say exactly what the impact will be, but whatever happens it's not a great sign for Dodge teams in NASCAR. As if they needed more bad news. Through six races Dodge has zero wins, zero top fives and only eight top tens. The highest ranked driver is David Stremme in 13^th place. As the old racing cliché goes, “finish 15^th on Sunday, up for sale on Monday”

-A field of current Nextel Cup crew chiefs, plus Jeff Hammond and Larry McReynolds, will compete in a race prior to the All-Star Challenge. It would be even better if drivers would have to set up the cars for their crew chiefs. Imagine Tony Eury Jr screaming at Dale Earnhardt Jr about how tight his car is, or Jimmie Johnson getting banned from the race for an unapproved modification.What might be even more comical would be a 100m foot race among crew chiefs.

-The Lady in Black is getting a makeover. The 10 million dollar project includes a repaved track, a new tunnel and suite renovations. Maybe it is related to ISC's failures in New York and Seattle, but spending $10 million at Darlington is a good sign for the long term stability of the track. A few years ago Dale Jr complained about the track and offered to pay for resurfacing. I wonder if they followed up on this offer?

-Starting next week, I am moving to a new location. I am learning web design so I decided to incorporate my blog into that. The website doesn't have anything right now, but the blog is set up. At the moment I am just using a Wordpress template, but I plan on creating my own images and layout. It is still a work in progress, but I have added quite a few links. Let me know if there are any links or blogs I have left off. Let me know what you think, and be sure to update links and favorites to troubleinturn2.mikemaruska.com.

I think you hear me knocking

2007-04-04T23:05:00.000-07:00

If you are a young hopeful Busch series driver, this is the weekend for you to make some noise. With the Nextel Cup series off, the Nashville race features only seven Cup regulars. Unlike last year, Carl Edwards is the only Buschwhacker with any kind of success at the Cup level. Edwards and Dave Blaney are the only two entrants with a Busch win in the last two years. Only 17 drivers on the entry list have 5 or more starts in 2007. Of the 60 top tens available so far, the Nashville entry list has scored only 16 top tens during the first six races and Edwards has six these. To put it another way, the drivers that have accounted for 73% of the top tens in 2007 are not driving this weekend.12 drivers are age 25 or younger. All of these numbers all say one thing: Opportunity. With all of the talk about how the Busch Series has problems, this weekend is a showcase for young talent.

The Pepsi 300 is a glimpse at what the Busch Series is ideally intended for: A series for young drivers to get experience, show their talent and get used to stock cars. Several young drivers get their chances in top equipment. Top equipment is nice; it's even better when it'spreviously driven by veteran Cup drivers. Drivers like Timothy Peters, Brad Coleman, Cale Gale and Eric Almirola get the added advantage of having someone like Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart or Denny Hamlin shake down the car. The downside is there are fewer reasons or excuses why a driver can't succeed. Some young drivers are getting early opportunities to impress while others are trying to remind people that they can still drive.

Young Guns
Cale Gale-The 21 year old Gale has 4 career Busch starts. Gale was hired last fall by Kevin Harvick to drive his car part time. Gale won an ARCA race at Gateway Int'l and finished 14th in the truck race at Daytona.

Timothy Peters-3 Busch starts, 34 Truck starts. Peters gets his third start in the #21 car. It's the same car that won 9 races last year, including Nashville, and has been one of the top Busch programs for the last few years. Peters finished ninth last weekend in the Truck Series race at Martinsville. Peters will also race the ARCA companion race at Nashville.

Kraig Kinser-A regular in the truck series, Kinser gets his first Busch start with Ginn Racing. Kinser, the son of Outlaws legend Steve has one truck top ten in 22 career races. With Sterling Marlin and Mark Martin nearing retirement, Kinser and Regan Smith are the future of Ginn Racing.

Eric Almirola, Brad Coleman-The two young Gibbs development drivers make their 4th and 3rd 2007 Busch starts respectively. Almirola ran a full Truck Series schedule (3 top 10's) in addition to nine Busch races. Coleman is only 19 but has raced stock cars, open wheel cars, late models and sports cars. Both drivers are looking for their first Busch top tens.

Steve Wallace-Growing up as Rusty Wallace's son, Steve has been in the spotlight for several years. It is sometimes easy to forget that he is only 19 and already is running a full Busch season. He has won Late Model and ARCA races and won the pole for the Bristol race two weeks ago.

Bouncing Back...
Scott Wimmer-He spent three seasons at the Cup level wth underfunded Bill Davis Racing and Morgan-McClure. Now he finds himself in a part time ride with Richard Childress. Part time is never as good as fulltime, but at least he is in a car that already has two Busch wins in 2007. Landing with a top Busch team is a great chance for Wimmer to rehabilitate his career and hopefully avoid the driver carousel involved among the underfunded teams.

Todd Kluever-A year ago Kluever was on the fast track to inheriting Mark Martin's #6 Nextel Cup ride. Then he struggled in his first Busch season with only 4 top tens and lots of DNF's (7). He was passed for the Cup ride and is only running a partial Busch schedule. In his second Busch season he is running more consistently with three top 15's in four races. Kluever won the pole at the second Nashville race in 2006, so he could do well this year. His NASCAR future may depend on it.

Danny O’Quinn-The 2006 Busch Rookie of the Year lost his ride with Roush Racing due to sponsorship challenges. O'Quinn is only 22 and deserves another shot in the Busch Series.

Other Notables
Sam hornish Jr-The reigning IRL champ and Indy 500 winner is preparing for a future jump to stock cars with as many Busch starts as he can cram in. His last Busch race at Atlanta saw him finish a respectable 15th. His move to stock cars is inevitable, especiallyif things keep progressing well.

Boris Said-When will an enterprising company or team owner get wise and hire Said for a full-time ride? He is best known for his road course skills, but he does have 93 starts among NASCAR's top three divisions. His best speedway finish last year was a 14th at Kentucky. Plus no one is a more entertaining interview.

Stephen Leicht-At one point in 2006 Leicht was close to landing one of Robert Yates' Cup rides. Luckily he wasn't thrown to the wolves and was able to learn at the Busch level. Leicht is only 19 years old and is still learning about stock car racing and Yates is still trying to rebuild both the Cup and Busch teams. He did win the ARCA race at Nashville last spring so he is talented.

While all of these drivers will have reasons to run well, the unquestioned favorite is Edwards. JJ Yeley is still looking for his first NASCAR win, but does not have as reliable car as several other drivers in the race. With so many young drivers and the lack of Cup drivers will make for an interesting race.

Foam Sweet Foam

2007-04-04T12:45:00.000-07:00

After a good race with an exciting finish and during a week with testing, who would have thought the biggest story would center on foam? Complaints about the handling of the CoT don’t matter as much when there are still serious safety concerns.

The foam manufacturer Dow says the burning foam is not toxic. Technically that could be true., but smoke still isn’t good for you. Aside from possibly a candle I can’t think of anything involving smoke, especially in a confined space, that is considered harmless. By the way, I would love to see an in-car camera showing Kevin Harvick with a lilac blossom candle with a Shell logo on it.

Elsewhere, Kenny Wallace had the fastest lap during Richmond testing. Is that a sign that the CoT is leveling the playing field? Or is it a case of a fast lap with a capable driver?My guess is the latter, but I'm sure someone will spin at as proof that the CoT is working.

Sorry for the short post today. I have some other things to take care of, which I guess includes my paid job. I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of this weekend’s Busch race at Nashville. Or maybe another riveting post about foam.

What will people do during the off-week?

2007-04-03T04:11:00.000-07:00

-After spending two weeks cooped up in front of a TV, Mark Martin nearly explodes. In a Clark Kent-like move, he rips off his shirt to reveal his firesuit and immediately heads to the track. He will enter this weekend's Busch and ARCA races at Nashville, the F1 race in Malaysia, three local late model races and announce plans to run the full Cup schedule through 2010.

-”Hi, Chip? It's Casey, I was wondering...is the 42 still avail...? It's not. Okay, well thanks anyway.”

-Due to a Rick Hendrick imposed golfing ban, Jimmie Johnson stays at home and plays FreeCell all week. What else is he going to do, wind his grandfather clock or figure out which track is his weakness?

-Bob Dillner reports that the reason Kevin Harvick's door caught fire was because of laser-cut holes in the exhaust. He also reports the reason why Toyotas are struggling so far is that they are slower than the other cars.

-Jeff Gordon will be doing anything but going to Wrigley Stadium.

-In response to the Gillette Young Guns, DEI drivers shoot a public service announcement for goatees.
Martin Truex Jr: "Your friends might think it's cool to play with razors."

Paul Menard: "But that's not always true."
Dale Earnhardt Jr: "Remember, you can win with hair on your chin"

-NASCAR R&D is hopefully testing new kinds of foam for the doors of the CoT. All week. The rumor that Peeps will act as the replacement for foam is unconfirmed.

-After seeing Matt Kenseth's success after Robby Reiser's suspension, Greg Biffle meets with crew chief Pat Tryson to invent a way for NASCAR to penalize the team. Obviously having a car that was too low didn't work, so that means working harder on the off-weeks to get caught.

-ISC begins throwing darts at a map of North America to find the next region to propose a failed track site. Living in the Northwest I would personally love a racetrack near Seattle or Portland. The problem is that ISC wants the public to help fund it, but not share in the profits. Yes some of the lawmakers in Washington didn't exactly have open minds about the proposal, but ISC also didn't seem very willing to compromise either. On a racing note, the plan called for a 1.3 mile track. Unless it was a replica of Darlington that would not have been a popular length (and some would probably not agree with having a Darlington clone instead of a second race at the real deal either). In a perfect world any new track at the Cup level would be no longer than a mile long.

-Sadly, Red Bull will spend it mourning the senseless loss of a team member.

Torqued Off Tuesday:
-Hendrick Hating. I am far from a fan of Hendrick's drivers. And there have been times when it seems like NASCAR lets the organization off the hook with minor penalties for larger infractions. That still shouldn't take away from how well they are performing right now. Many NASCAR fans are saying they are sick of Hendrick cars dominating or even implying that there is a fix with NASCAR. One, there is no way possible that NASCAR can be fixed. There are plenty of questionable practices in NASCAR, but fixing a race is simply not one of them. Two, Hendrick is dominating because they have great crews and engineers that spend all year working on building great cars. They have the past, present and future Cup Champions as their top three drivers. Roush Racing was similarly dominant in 2005. Things are cyclical in NASCAR and right now Hendrick cars are the class of the field. The 48 and 24 put on a pretty good finish at Martinsville. As a racing fan it was an exciting finish no matter what team the two drivers come from. Cheer hard for your team and driver, but also step back and marvel at what Hendrick has done.

-Billy Packer. Watching a the National Championship game, it's hard to tell if he enjoys college basketball. At times it seems like he relishes cutting down teams and players. He picks two or three key points in the first five minutes of the game and then hammers these points for the final 35 minutes. There were times when Jim Nantz tried to correct him or spin something positive and Packer would grumpily interrupt to disagree. I don't care if he has called every title game for 33 years, CBS needs to find someone (not Dick Vitale) who at least conveys passion and excitement while informing the audience. With Packer all we get is an attitude of someone who apparently has somewhere better to be.

View from the couch: Martinsville

2007-04-02T09:14:00.000-07:00

Unless you are Kevin Harvick, it was pretty much same old Martinsville. That’s a good thing and at least for non-aero tracks, the CoT works pretty well. It was an exciting finish between teammates beating and banging, but not wrecking. That finish would have probably happened in any car, it was a product of a tough, tight race track rather than the car. After watching the Truck race, it’s a huge contrast in the driving skill and patience of the Cup guys.

-The corporate team line from Jeff Gordon wasn't very believable. He didn't win the race and he is initially upset, but he has no right to be upset with Jimmie Johnson. Johnson did not drive dirty and deserved to win as much as Gordon. Gordon is not entitled to win just because he has the best car or is close to making the pass. Because it was a teammate he certainly wasn’t going to pull a Montoya. It's also interesting that he said he would never wreck someone to win. I wonder what Matt Kenseth would say about that. If Gordon won he deserved to win, but you have to say the same thing about Johnson. No one is entitled to wins. Jeff Burton was probably upset he didn’t win last week, but he was at least content with second because he raced the right way.

-Speaking of Burton, the start of his season has been nearly flawless. If not for a lost cylinder at Las Vegas, he would have six top tens in six races. Instead he has 4 top fives and 5 top tens. His average finish is 5.7 and he has two Busch victories. Last year was not a fluke.

-Last fall David Ragan was everywhere at Martinsville, hitting several other cars and drawing the ire of several drivers. The same was actually true last weekend. This time at Martinsville Ragan basically kept his splitter clean and finished on the lead lap in 15^th. This year is obviously a steep learning curve, but he is headed in the right direction.

-Ken Schrader qualified 4^th and then dropped like a rock. It was never really explained why. He settled in and ran the rest of the day on the lead lap before finishing 19^th. The finish also moves the #21 car within 11 points of 35^th place.

-People make too big of a deal about Practice times. Martin Truex Jr. was great in all three practices, while Jimmie Johnson was last in one practice session. It gives some indicator of how good cars are, but a lot of the time it doesn't show the whole story. Truex struggled all day before suffering mechanical problems and Johnson won.

-Rain delays are usually a big drain of excitement, but it was perfectly timed for an errand run.

-Is anyone else bothered the Fox graphic that turns yellow when a pit reporter is talking? Most NASCAR fans can tell the difference between Dick Bergerren, Matt Yocum and Krista Voda by the voice. On quick glance the yellow logo looks like a caution was waved. It's very confusing.

-When Kevin Harvick's car door caught fire Darrell Waltrip immediately claimed NASCAR said it was impossible. He later revised his statement, but it was still a puzzling claim. Several drives complained about the problem last week, yet NASCAR's PR people say it's not an issue. From the outside it’s impossible to say whether this was a preventable issue, but it’s definitely an issue. It still seems pretty fundamental to make sure the car is safe from toxins before addressing competition issues.

Next race is at Texas, but first it’s time for an off week. It gives a chance to catch the opening week of baseball, watch the men’s basketball championship game and of course, celebrate the true reason for Easter.

Martinsville Preview and Predictions

2007-03-30T10:51:00.000-07:00

Martinsville is one of the most exciting tracks on the Cup circuit. It’s short, and tight, and there are zero aerodynamics involved. The turns are concrete with asphalt straightaways. It’s a half mile track so drivers are always battling traffic. Brakes fail, cars get hot and tires get cuts and flats. Two of the more impressive drives of recent time have come in the last two spring races. In 2005 Jeff Gordon lost three laps early on die to an unscheduled pit stop. He earned two laps back by passing the leader and then got a lucky dog near the end of the race. With several of the best cars having problems, Gordon took advantage and worked his way to the front for the win. The impressive win was not without controversy. On his late march to the front, he made contact with Kurt Busch spinning him into the fence.

In 2006 cars got bunched up on lap one, resulting in a large accordion-like wreck. Dale Earnhardt Jr’s car suffered severe damage with the right front fender torn off. As he limped back to the pits, hoses snaked out of the hole, giving the appearance of a car that would spend the rest of the day merely turning laps. The team pitted several times under the caution, but managed to stay on the lead lap. The cars’ entire right front tire was exposed, but Earnhardt Jr. continued on. As the race progressed,the 8 car kept climbing the leader board, getting as high as 5^th. A second incident with Ryan Newman sent Earnhardt Jr. back to the pits for repairs. Despite two major incidents during the race, Junior still was one of the fastest cars at the end of the race, finishing 4^th.

Neither of these finishes could happen at most tracks. The speeds are too fast and it’s too hard to overcome three laps or major body damage. Some might complain that Martinsville is too slow or it’s too hard to pass. What is wrong with a track being tough to pass on? It is much different than an intermediate track that is hard to pass on because of the aero-sensitivity. It’s simply a small track with one groove. It actually puts more responsibility in the drivers’ hands and that’s where everyone wants it anyway. If it was too easy to pass, every race would be like Michigan.

-Fox is televising the Craftsman Truck Series event at Martinsville on Saturday. It is the first CTS race on network television since 2000. For many fans without the Speed Channel (including myself) it is a look at the most consistently competitive series in NASCAR. With many sponsors and manufacturers withdrawing support, it’s a needed boost of exposure for the series too. It’s also a good thing the race will finish before the Final Four games tip off.

-The only Martin to win at Martinsville is Mark (’92, ’00). He is not entered this weekend so it is up to Martin Truex Jr. to try and carry on the Martin’s Ville mantel. That is unless Matt Martin shows up or maybe Marty Snider takes a hot lap.

-Richard Petty has won the most grandfather clocks with 15. Darrell Waltrip has 11 wins. The only active driver with more than two is Jeff Gordon (7).

-Hendrick Motorsports has won six of the last eight races at Martinsville. They have also won the last three weeks in the Nextel Cup in 2007.

-This week is the CoT is again the focus. Expect the usual teams and drivers to be at the front: Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson. My pick this week is Stewart. In the last four races he has led 818 laps at Martinsville. He has three straight top fives including a win last spring. Watch out for Jamie McMurray as a dark horse. He ran well last week at Bristol and has 5 career top tens in 8 races at Martinsville.

-My other predictions are Ohio State and UCLA to meet Monday night. Watch out for Billy Packer,Billy Packer Man-Crush Award include Joakim Noah, Sean May, Chris Duhon and of course, the all-time great Mateen Cleaves. Who will it take the Man-Crush Award this year? My guess is Ohio State point guard Mike Conley Jr.

Top Reasons why Greg Biffle was not fined for his low car at Bristol:

2007-03-29T12:51:00.000-07:00

10. The Ladder of Tomorrow was an unapproved modification, so the 16 team lowered the car.

9. Mike Helton was promised a spot on Boston’s opening day roster.

8. Nicole Lunders threatened Brian France with an Aquafina bottle unless he waved the penalty.

7. No jetfuel, no foul.

6. Mark Martin was a week early with an April Fools gag.

5. Biffle brought party Subs to the NASCAR hauler and also offered free tax service from Jackson Hewitt.

4. Jim Hunter didn’t think anyone in Nextel Cup would cheat on purpose.

3. Instead of a points or monetary penalty, Biffle will now have to drive the Car of Tomorrow at Texas.

2. Somehow it was Hendrick Motorsports’ fault.

1. The Fusion low-rider was Ford’s answer to the Chevy Impala commercials with Dale Jr and rapper T.I. Holla!

3 Drivers that liked Bristol more than hated it...

2007-03-28T15:44:00.000-07:00

A lot of drivers suffered poor finishes at Bristol. Crashes, flat tires, pit road problems and parts failures contributed to only 15 cars on the lead lap. For a few drivers, Bristol was a dose of medicine that hopefully helps redirect their seasons.

Jeff Green-Green finished 2006 on an upswing. He scored his only two top tens of the year during the Chase. His old, new crew chief Harold Holly helped Green to run more competitively as the season closed. It was a sign of hope for He ran well at Daytona before catching Jimmie Johnson’s spinning car, leaving him 36^th. His first four races produced finishes of 36^th, 30^th, 25^th, and 35^th. The poor start pushed Green to the brink of guaranteed status. A sixth place finish at Bristol moved him to 28th place. At worst this buys more time in the starting field. Green will obviously hope it is the start of something larger. Teammate Johnny Sauter is also inside the top 35, making for a successful expansion for the company. Haas CNC Racing can use some good news. Owner Gene Haas is battling fraud charges (and people call Teresa Earnhardt a deadbeat owner), and the team hasn’t been competitive at the Cup level in years. Now Green heads to Martinsville where he finished 8th last fall.

Casey Mears-If you needed another example of how difficult it is to jump into a new ride and find immediate success, check out Mears. Just like his former teammate Jamie McMurray he left Ganassi to join a seemingly better situation. So far the results have been middling. Darian Grubb is a brand new crew chief and it will take time for the #25 car to find consistency. There is some hope, however. Mears scored his first top ten at Bristol and Brian Vickers had excellent cars at Texas and Talladega, two races on the horizon.

Brian Vickers-After he crashed last week at Atlanta, Vickers made his third race of the season. Cameras barely captured his car during the race, but he did finish a strong 15^th. Consider he also suffered burns on his feet and rear, not to mention carbon monoxide inhalation. Despite missing two races, Vickers is still the strongest Toyota driver. He had a top ten at California, led the first Camry laps at Atlanta and now sits 38th in points. Doug Richert is one of the top crew chiefs in Cup and the two should only improve their communication and chemistry as the season progresses. Toyota is also working very hard to improve their cars which should grant Vickers more consistency.

Notes:
-Looking at the Martinsville entry lists, it’s surprising more Cup drivers did not enter the Truck race. Kevin Harvick, AJ Allmendinger, Paul Menard, Mike Bliss and Ken Schrader are the only drivers entering both events. The trucks have many characteristics in common with the Car of Tomorrow. Obviously young drivers like Allmendinger and Menard need experience at Martinsville, not to mention the new car. With so many teams trying to get a handle on the new car, why not take the opportunity to see what translates from trucks to the CoT?

-The Chase is months away. The most interesting battle right now is the top 35 battle. 100 points separate 35^th from 43^rd. Every full-time team has now made at least one race. Even more tenuous are the seven teams barely on the good side of 35. 29^th place Reed Sorenson is only 74 points ahead of 36^th place. At a place like crash-happy Martinsville, that is a very slim margin.

-Tony Stewart has led 441 laps in five races. Dale Earnhardt Jr was 10^th in 2006 in laps led with 444.

-Thank you to reader Jim for keeping me and my lousy Final Four picks accountable. I lost Maryland in the second round, but still felt good about my other three picks. Then Ohio State came back from 19 down against Tennessee, Kansas could not figure out UCLA’s defense and North Carolina suddenly forgot how to score. For the second year in a row, I’m left with zero Final Four teams. At least the games should be interesting this Saturday. Just don’t ask me who will win.

View from the Couch: Bristol

2007-03-26T22:29:00.000-07:00

The two most common phrases on Sunday: Unscheduled pit stop, and Trouble in Turn 2! I appreciate Mike Joy and Bristol doing so much to promote my little blog. Turn 2 was where all the action was on Sunday. The race had plenty of stories happening. The world didn't end with the introduction of the Car of Tomorrow, Joe Gibbs Racing lead all of the laps that didn't matter and there was a close, exciting finish. Compared to most Bristol races, there were very few racing incidents. It was a day of battling one's car and the track more than other drivers. I also appreciate Kyle Busch and Jeff Burton and making my Friday picks look smart. Quite the finish.

Car of Tomorrow Notes
-Maybe Busch's quote from Victory Lane summed it all up, “I can't stand to drive these things, they suck.” And this is from a driver that won the race while spending the majority of the day in the top five. Drivers will get more comfortable with the car with time. This will be especially true at smoother tracks than Bristol. Maybe the best name for the CoT is WhIP (Work in Progress). Drivers must relearn how to control the car and crews must figure out which adjustments will work. Fans will also get used to the awkward look of the car.

-When Dale Jarrett hit the wall it looked like his trunk exploded. Other cars had pretty significant damage for pretty innocuous crashes at Bristol. The CoT will run at Darlington. Practically every driver this the wall there, what will happen to the bodies of the new cars?

-There were so many cars that had problems it was hard to tell which teams truly struggled with the car. It was surprising that Jimmie Johnson's 48 team did not run better.

-Smaller teams seemed to be more competitive: Mike Bliss, Jeff Green, Kenny Wallace Ward Burton. This probably has a lot to do with experience on short tracks. If these drivers on small teams continue to do well at other tracks on the schedule, it will be a victory for the CoT.

-The bad news for Gibbs Racing: All three cars had mechanical problems and their best finish was 14th. The good news: They led 88 percent of the laps, and the same car is back next week.

Other Views from the Couch
-Once again, Evernham was up and down: The day started great with all three qualifying and running in the top ten. Then all three cars had different problems, and none finished on the lead lap. Scott Riggs is currently outside the top 35 (right where he was last year at this time), and Kasey Kahne is barely on the right side in 34^th. Elliott Sadler is in 13^th, but has only one top ten so far.

-This year's Brent Sherman wild ride award winner is David Ragan. He spun three times before finally wrecking. After a solid start to the season (5^th, 16^th in two races) Ragan has had three tough races. Martinsville could be another long day for him. The good news is that he is solidly inside the top 35.

-Fox featured lots of in-car shots and really did a great job capturing the action from track level. It was great work to see how bumpy the track truly is. I hope this is a trend and not a novelty because of the CoT.

-Jeff Green has had some decent runs this year, but not the results. He finally finished well on Sunday, taking sixth. Without the solid run, he was in danger of falling outside the top 35.

-Mike Joy often mentions that none of the fans are leaving the end of this race. Why would they? This isn't an NBA game.

-Jeff Burton=class. What more can you say?

-Kyle Busch makes the occasional stupid mistake, but in between he is pretty likable. He is honest, is extremely talented, and does his best to respect other drivers like Burton. The new goatee also makes him look older than 18.

-The top 35 now reflects this season's standings. Joe Nemechek and Johnny Sauter crack the top 35 despite missing Bristol. Sterling Marlin also regains a guaranteed starting position for the #14 car. Dave Blaney, Scott Riggs and Ken Schrader (with Jon Wood) all fall outside the top 35. Riggs has qualified well all season, but Blaney and Schrader face a challenge in the coming weeks. Dale Jarrett was in the top 35 for the first four weeks, but his crash placed him outside the safety bubble. The mildly good news is that Jarrett made the race on time, thus saving one of his two remaining provisionals.

My Torqued off Tuesday Bug:
-Why did NASCAR wait so long to throw the caution when Jimmie Johnson cut a tire? He was crawling back to his pits and everyone around him was slowing to avoid him. In turn, this allowed Kyle Busch to pass the boxed in Denny Hamlin. This could have not only greatly affected the race, but causes a huge pileup. If Brian France and NASCAR are truly serious about integrity with their cautions and safety is a priority, someone had better send some caffeine to the control tower to keep everyone awake.

-I spent all of Monday in a seminar on negotiating. One of the first things the instructor says is, “I won't try to be a Bo Derek.” The obvious implication that he won't try to be a perfect 10 instructor for us. “I'm more of a six.” In reality I could have learned more from a book on my own time. Companies like mine spend lots of money for these kind of seminars. It's a little sorry when an instructor basically says he isn't aiming to be the best teacher, but only mediocre.

[Note: I did work on my new site, but there were some complications that delayed its launch.]

Francespeak and a few Bristol Thoughts

2007-03-23T12:49:00.000-07:00

A few quick thoughts before the weekend. Brian France was interviewed on Sirius this past week. The transcript is from Dustin Long’s blog. Most of his answers were very company line, vanilla stuff. He did have a few quotes that stood out to me:

On the AT&T lawsuit: “…it is kind of flattering that somebody is suing us to stay in the sport. You don’t want a lawsuit from anybody but if you have to I guess that would be one thing to think about.”
I’m sure that was AT&T’s intent. That is also why Kentucky Speedway and Texas Motorspeedway previously filed suits. It’s all about flattery.

On debris cautions: “If we think something is potentially an obstacle or a problem on the track we’re going to put the caution out every single time. We’ll be very consistent about that.”
Obviously a 10 car pileup on the last lap at Daytona does not qualify as debris. Maybe someone can keep track of proposed consistency this year.

On the Busch Series: “We’ve got a lot of potential with that series that I think we’re not really reaching even though, as we debate this internally all the time somebody’s quick to tell me it’s the #2 motorsport in the country. So when you start going ‘Let’s change this’ or ‘Let’s adjust that’ you’ve got to be a little careful because it is doing so well.”
On paper #2 sounds great. Of course that is comparing the Busch Series to the struggling IRL, and the withering series that is ChampCar. That’s kind of like saying Arena Football is the #2 professional football league in the country. It sounds great, but that doesn’t address the true problems in the series. Independent Busch teams are getting choked out, races often struggle to fill full fields, and maybe most importantly young drivers no longer have good opportunities to gain experience. But if Brian France says things are good, then everyone else must be wrong.

-Qualifying is once again the story of the day. A quick math equation: 50 cars-35 guarenteed-1 Champion provisional-6 fastest qualifying times=7 unhappy drivers and sponsors.

The scramble to make the top 35 is in high gear for drivers like Jeff Green, Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, Scott Riggs, Dave Blaney and David Reutimann. Others (Mayfield, Waltrip, Allmendinger, Vickers, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace, Mike Bliss) are merely hoping to gain exposure for their sponsors.

-Based on speeds from practice and last month’s test, Denny Hamlin looks the favorite on Sunday. Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick are also very consistent at Bristol. Watch out for Jeff Burton and Kyle Busch too. Both have run very well this year in every race. Busch has had fast cars but some bad luck in nearly every race. One thing is certain; there won’t be any snow this weekend, which hopefully means Kurt Busch will not attempt a snow angel.

-On the NASCAR blog scene, the cool thing to do is change your layout. Since I want to sit at the lunch table with the cool kids, I am also working on updating the look and location of my blog. I have planned on this for months, but I’m not always the most diligent. I hope to finish this weekend, but realistically it probably won’t happen for a little while. I’m still excited about the changes because I’m trying to personally handle as much of the design as I can. I’m in the process of learning web design, combined with dusting off my Photoshop skills. We’ll see what happens.

Bristol Questions

2007-03-22T09:03:00.000-07:00

What happens to the CoT in a crash?
If the February practice was any indicator, the slightest crashes will render the car wrecked. Just because you see a spike in sheet metal sales on eBay Monday morning does not mean that Sunday's race was wild and exciting. The other troubling thing is teams will race the same cars next week at Martinsville. Some of the smaller teams might not have a large fleet of cars built yet. What happens if one or more cars get wrecked within the same company? Crew chiefs have complained about how long it takes to repair the bodies of the cars. Say a smaller team like Hall of Fame Racing or Petty Enterprises dings multiple cars this weekend. It could be tough to

Will anyone be able to pass or just one long line?
Last August's race was with a car that everyone had essentially figured out and that was a parade. Granted that was more about self-preservation before the Chase, but it still stands. It will probably be worse this year. If the cars are too fragile to handle the normal bumping at Bristol, passing becomes even harder without the chrome horn. A handful of cars will find something that works and leave everyone else in the dust. With that said, don’t use Bristol as an indicator of whether the CofT is a success or not.

Will everyone make it through inspection?
A brand new car with constantly evolving specs. A new “claw” that will test all the templates at once. Every part marked with an RFID. With so many new changes and my cynical nature, I’d say the chances are pretty good it’s going to be chaotic on Friday.

Who will be caught with their pants down?
Someone will. Everyone knew this date was coming. Some teams embraced the opportunities to test and others resisted. Given their track record on past rule changes, DEI is a likely suspect to really struggle. Ganassi also fits the profile, regardless of their recent gains on the speedway car. Evernham also tends to lag behind other teams; although once they do catch up they are a force. Ford is also handling the CoT for Roush, Yates and Wood Brothers. These teams tested less than some of the other top teams. This poses the obvious risk of falling behind the competition.

On the other hand, remember that Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne’s respective crew chiefs Robbie Reiser and Kenny Francis were suspended for the first four races. That means a lot of time in the shop to work on the Car of Tomorrow.

Can Toyota close the gap?
The last three weeks at speedway tracks Toyota has struggled. It is not surprising considering they are competing against established teams that have spent years perfecting the current speedway car. With the new model, everyone started closer to the same point. The established teams still have more resources, historical notes and talent, but at least Toyota doesn’t have as large of a gap to close with the Car of Tomorrow.

Other Notes:
The Cal Ripkens of NASCAR are dropping quickly. Ricky Rudd held the longest streak of consecutive starts until he took all of 2006 off. Michael Waltrip had the longest active streak, spanning back to 1987 until he missed three races last year. Now the current leader is Mark Martin and his 621 race streak comes to an end this Sunday. After Sunday who are the next two drivers with the longest active streaks of 477 and 476 respectively? Answer below.

The Car of Tomorrow has plenty of nicknames: Co'T, Brick, Car of Yesterday Today, Butt Ugly, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s Grandma’s Car, Plow of Tomorrow. What are we supposed to call the current model? Surely there is a better name than Car of Right Now or CORN. A few suggestions: Speedway car. The anti-brick, The less-safe racecar, The one with a spoiler, The Hammock (a perfect foil for the COT), Old Reliable. Any suggestions?

Trivia Answer A. Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte

NASCAR:The Official Hypocrite of NASCAR

2007-03-21T10:01:00.000-07:00

NASCAR, not to mention the entire motorsports industry, runs on sponsors. Without the support of hundreds of companies teams could not run, and NASCAR would have no way to put on races and have the large purses that attract the top drivers in the US.

NASCAR has created a problem by awarding official sponsorships for seemingly any product. What is worse is the preferential treatment of certain sponsors by NASCAR.

Companies fork over more money to become the official ___ of NASCAR. The limits on what a company can officially sponsor are practically endless. Combos is the official Cheese-Filled food for crying out loud.

In some cases, NASCAR is willing to take on everyone who is interested. For example, there is not an official beverage of NASCAR. Instead there is an official beer (Budweiser), soft drink (Coca-Cola), sports drink (Powerade), juice (Minute Maid), wine (Diageo) and water (Dasani). If that isn't complicated enough, consider Calloway is the official golf ball while Top-Flite is the official golf club. NASCAR has an official manufacturer (Toyota), pace car (Chevy Monte Carlo), truck (Ford) and passenger vehicle (Dodge Charger). That obviously covers every manufacturer competing in NASCAR. These are all cases of NASCAR accommodating several sponsors and that is the way it should be.

With the latest sponsor conflicts however, either NASCAR is not interested in accommodation or NEXTEL and Sunoco have too much control over operations. With Nextel as the title sponsor, Cingular and Alltel were granted grandfather exceptions because they were in the sport prior to Nextel's involvement. Now Cingular is getting re-branded as AT&T, but NASCAR and Nextel is crying foul. Although it is the same company as Cingular, Richard Childress Racing can not show the AT&T logos on Jeff Burton’s #31 car. AT&T has filed a lawsuit. Robby Gordon was also initially denied use of the Motorola logos on his car. The ironic part is that Nextel is merging with Sprint, and the series will change to the NASCAR Sprint Cup as soon as 2008.

What is more, another RCR car, Kevin Harvick’s #29 was earlier asked to not feature the Shell logo as prominently on his car or firesuit due to the competition with Sunoco, the official fuel of NASCAR. Harvick’s car now features a smaller Shell logo plus the Pennzoil logo. Sunoco does not even have stations in some parts of the country.

It is not the first time a sponsor conflict has grabbed headlines. In 2004, as the official sports drink of NASCAR, Powerade paid for exposure in Victory Lane. Do not confuse this with the sponsor of Victory Lane itself: Gatorade. Powerade is made and distributed by Coke. The biggest feature was placing a large Powerade bottle on the roof of the winning car in Victory Lane. Drivers who were sponsored by Pepsi, like Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon, would deliberately knock the bottle of the car during their celebrations. NASCAR representatives (the official officials of NASCAR?) eventually told drivers they couldn’t knock the poor Powerade bottle off the cars. When Johnson placed a Lowe’s sign in front of the bottle he was fined $10,000 for the nebulous and infamous section 12-4-A “actions detrimental to stock car racing”. That fine was rather benign compared to what it could mean for Childress or Robby Gordon. Without a multi-million dollar sponsor on the car it is difficult to pay the expenses involved with racing.

Official sponsorships should not grant exclusivity. One of the results of a free market is competition. It is usually a good thing. Home Depot and Lowe's both spend lots of money in NASCAR to gain exposure for their companies. All four car manufacturers coexist.

Things might be different is this was a sport with franchises like the NFL. NASCAR teams are independent of the governing body. They have to pay the expenses to compete and enter races. To use the analogy of a party, NASCAR is basically sending out invitations to teams and requiring that they bring a date (sponsor money). Then when the teams and their dates get to the door, NASCAR is refusing certain dates for not being on the list.

NASCAR should not be able to dictate how or where that money comes from. If a creative “official sponsor” title can not be found, NASCAR must at least allow teams to bring their own sponsors to the party no matter who it is.

My Tuesday bug (a day late):

Local news stations. Instead of teasing a story for half an hour, how about getting to the point and covering more stories. Teases must work at some level, but I can’t be the only one that just wants a straight story. Last night one local Portland channel ran a tease asking whether it would freeze overnight or not. They promoted this story three times and finally answered their own question at the end of the broadcast. Having young plants I really wanted to know whether I should cover them from the pending frost or go to bed knowing that the frost would not come. In the time it takes to ask the question, the weather man could have simply told me “yes” or “no”. Then they could move on to another story that is worth my time. They used the same tactic for a story about a lady that found a large nail in a chew toy for her dog. Instead of telling us where this happened, they wasted time with teases promising to tell us what store the nail was found at. I understand they are trying to get people to watch their channel instead of the competition. What would really keep my interest is information instead of gloss and fluff. I am confident I’m not alone. Let me know what's bugging you this week.

View from the Couch: Atlanta

2007-03-19T11:51:00.000-07:00

Atlanta was just what NASCAR needed: An exciting race with few cautions and even less controversy. After the cheating at Daytona, lots of cautions (including disputed debris) at California, the tire complaints and wrecks at Las Vegas an uneventful weekend suited all parties well. A tight finish made things even better. Unfortunately, the racing will take a weekend or two off while the focus returns to the Car of Tomorrow. Expect widespread panic this week as several teams complain about the new car, while the few teams that did their winter homework laugh all the way to Victory Lane.

I had to tape the race and watched it last night. As a result I was more concerned with finishing the race than analyzing the various coverage elements. Many will say that’s a good thing. The one thing that stuck out to me was green flag runs give the Fox crew less time to goof around. That means they are talking about racing instead of showing needless fluff or allowing DW to go off on tangents. I though the coverage was pretty good on Sunday.

A few thoughts:
Ignore DW because Mark Martin will not make the Chase. He plans to miss the next two races and will certainly skip more during the summer. Say he misses two races that he normally scores top 20’s. Considering how he has run so far this year, that’s a safe estimate. That’s at least 206 points Martin leaves on the table. It would be tough to make that difference up. That’s also not accounting for any bad runs Martin has. Martin doesn’t seem to care, so why does everyone else want to make a big deal out of it?

-Props to Mike Bliss and BAM racing. They failed to qualify in the first three races, but Bliss was 9^th fastest at Atlanta and finished 21^st.

-Juan Pablo Montoya had a great run at Atlanta. Ganassi’s equipment is really improved and Montoya is learning quickly. After his first Cup top 5 his reward is 1000 laps of short track racing over the next two weeks. People can complain about Montoya saturation, but he is pretty exciting to watch. One of the most impressive things about Montoya’s run was the tire management. Teams were reporting minor tire issues and other cars struggled on long runs. Montoya drove aggressively but consistently. Consider that in Formula 1, the cars run one set of tires for two entire races.

-Setting aside the engine woes at California, DEI might have graduated from being an overgrown one-car team. There are early signs that they finally have two teams that can run well every week. Martin Truex Jr scored a top ten Sunday and ran well at Daytona and Las Vegas too. Dale Earnhardt Jr has spent the majority of the last two weeks in the top five, but hasn’t finished well. The finishes will come at the speedways. It’s a significant improvement over previous years where Earnhardt Jr was the only car capable of running up front every week. Now we’ll see if DEI paid attention to the Car of Tomorrow.

Who Would Have Predicted…
…That Evernham cars would have two top ten’s and none on the intermediate tracks where they usually run so well.

…That David Ragan would have more top fives (1) than Greg Biffle (0).

…The most consistent Dodge to date would be David Stremme.

…That Toyota would have this much trouble. Only one car (#44 Dale Jarrett) currently sits inside the top 35. David Reutimann can’t seem to avoid trouble. He now has 3 crashes in 3 races and sits 43^rd in points.

…That James Hylton would have as many points as Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger and more than Michael Waltrip.

…That after four races, there is no sign of a feud between any two drivers. That should change next weekend in a small Tennessee town called Bristol.

March Madness Quick Preview

2007-03-15T09:26:00.000-07:00

There are very few times on my blog when NASCAR takes a backseat. The opening day of March Madness is one of the times. There are so many great memories and characters that surface during the tournament, especially the first weekend. The upsets, individual performances, and buzzer beaters. Too many to name in fact. Here’s my breakdown of this year’s tourney. This breakdown is probably worth less than the price of this blog, but I still find pleasure in it. For full disclosure, my Final Four picks from last year were UConn, Kansas (1^st round loss), Gonzaga and Villanova. That’s right 0-4. Read on at your own risk.

Final Four Teams:
Kansas-The Jayhawks have a lot of talent and play an uptempo game that can wear thinner teams down. Julian Wright is the underrated glue man that could have a great tourney. Aside from a potential game with UCLA, their path is rather unobstructed. My pick to cut down the nets.

Maryland-A team loaded with seniors led by guards DJ Strawberry and Mike Jones. They also have enough inside size to deal with Florida in the Sweet 16. Center James Gist is the key to a deep run.

North Carolina-Traditionally freshman guards do not do well in the tourney. That’s overstated a bit, especially when the guards are as talented as Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. They are deep, big and will wear teams down.

Tennesee-Looking at the South bracket, there wasn’t a team I was in love with and have a feeling this is where the upsets will come (see below). Tennesee has an experienced scorer in Chris Lofton and this bracket could open up for the Vols. Plus there’s something strangely mystical about Bruce Pearl and his sweaty orange blazers.

Who will be this year’s George Mason?
Nobody. That was such a unbelievable run that it might never happen again. As usual, there are plenty of Cinderella candidates to pull an upset or two. Watch out for Oral Roberts, Winthrop, or Old Dominion.

Biggest upset:
Xavier over Ohio State. Buckeyes coach Thad Matta recruited many of the Musketeers and several players were on the 2004 team that made the Elite Eight. The Buckeyes have ridiculous talent, but they are young and the Big Ten is not as good it seems.

Overrated:
Wisconsin-Center Brian Butch is out for the year. Without him the Badgers lack the inside scorer to take the heat off Alondo Tucker.

Memphis-Yes, they’re 30-3. No, they haven’t played anyone. Nevada or Creighton could easily beat them in the second round.

Underrated:
Georgia Tech-The 10 seed is very young, but very good. They could easily make some noise and scare some teams.

Enjoy the games!

Random Thoughts for a Slow Day

2007-03-14T12:47:00.000-07:00

I woke up with writer’s block this morning, so I thought I would have others largely write my blog for me today.

George Gillett might invest in Evernham Motorsports. Gillett already owns the NHL’s Montreal Canadiens and English soccer giant Liverpool among other investments. If two of the top teams in Nextel Cup feel the need to seek out additional capital, how are the lower tier teams ever going to make it?

Larry McReynolds explains why Jimmie Johnson’s team did not break any rules on their final pit stop:
A tire can be in the next pit box. Draw an imaginary line down the center of the pit boxes. Your equipment, including tires, cannot be on the track side of the line, and the No. 48 car's was not on that side of the line.

It's not a NASCAR official's job, but it's not uncommon. Think about it from a safety standpoint. A tire rolling out on pit road can get hit by a car and hit a crew member.
At most races, I can look at all of pit road in one glance. You would be shocked at how many NASCAR officials catch tires rolling away from every race team. Officials won't catch tires stop after stop. If it continued to happen, the official would go to the crew chief and say, "Look, I'm not catching your tires anymore." But once or twice during a race, I see officials catch tires for all race teams up and down pit road.
I can live with that. I noticed the tire roll past his pit box, but not into the road. Sure some might look at the official stopping the tire as some kind of advantage for the 48 team. In the bigger picture the officials are there to make sure everything is safe. That’s why they penalize for speeding, loose lugnuts and straying equipment. Look at it this way. If the official lets the tire go it ensures Johnson’s team is penalized, but it also allows a 70 pound tire the chance to hit another car or crew member.

One of the best mainstream media blogs is Virginia-Pilot beat writer Dustin Long. A beat writer that understands how to use a blog is great. He gives additional notes, quotes and insight that can’t fit in his regular articles. He also updates frequently from places like the CoT test at Bristol, well before other outlets had any information. He is one of those writers that are always overflowing with information.From Dustin Long’s blog:
Also, James Finch is listed as the car owner for the No. 4 Morgan-McClure car of Ward Burton. The team bought the points from Finch, whose 09 car of Mike Wallace scored 160 points with his fourth-place finish in the Daytona 500. This became effecitve this week as the team tries to climb into the top 35 in car owner points by Bristol so they can have a guaranteed starting spot. The team is 38th in car owner points after Sunday's race.
It’s an interesting note that puts Ward right back in the thick of things. If he can make the next two races, and avoid Robby Gordon’s carnage, Burton could see himself inside the top 35. It’s still a steep challenge, but 38^th is much better than 48^th in owner’s points. It’s an interesting note that I have not seen covered anywhere else. Without the extra points, Burton and the #4 car’s outlook is pretty bleak.

Thank you to reader John for showing me the way on my Cousin Carl bug. “His dad is Ken Schrader's cousin. So Kenny started referring to him as Cousin Carl and it just stuck.” So it does make sense after all. It still bugs me, but at least it there’s a story behind it.

Numbers, stats and Torqued Off Tuesday

2007-03-13T08:10:00.000-07:00

A few notes about driver ratings:
-Jeff Burton leads all drivers with a 116.9 average driver rating through three races. If not for a late mechanical problem, he would also have three top ten finishes and probably the points lead. Burton is proving that last year was not a fluke. Maybe he simply slumped in 2004-2005.

-Not only has Mark Martin scored three straight top five finishes, but his driver rating was above 100 in all three races. For the next two weeks you will hear nothing from me about "will he or won't he?". I think the rest of the NASCAR galaxy is covering this enough.

-Judging by their driver ratings, David Ragan and Robby Gordon have overachieved so far. Gordon’s average rating is 64.2 with an average finish of 17.7. Ragan’s average rating is 49.0, but his average finish is 19.3. Gordon's popularity rating is also rather low after his poor judgement led to wrecking Casey Mears at Las Vegas.

-Of drivers making three races, Dale Jarrett and Kyle Petty have miserable ratings of 29.0 and 30.7 respectively. Not coincidentally both drivers are toeing the top 35 line. At least Petty has had recent success at Atlanta (8th, 17th in 2006).

Top 35 Update:
The water got murkier after Las Vegas for the drivers trying to crack the top 35. Joe Nemechek and Johnny Sauter suffered early crashes. Paul Menard got trapped two laps down because of a speeding penalty, and Sterling Marlin lost an engine late. At least they made the race. David Reutimann, Brian Vickers, Jeremy Mayfield and AJ Allmendinger lost further ground to the pack. If 2007 owners points kicked in today, Nemechek, Sauter, Marlin and Jarrett would be in. Kasey Kahne, Scott Riggs, Dave Blaney and the 21 car (Ken Schrader/Jon Wood) would have to make the race on time.

And then there is Michael Waltrip. He is now averaging -9 points per week. Last year was a disaster, but at least he was able to make the majority of races and had to buy his way into the Coca Cola 600 to appease his sponsor NAPA. It turns out that was nothing compared to 2007. In three Cup races, Waltrip has a -100 point penalty and missed two other races.

Fact of the Week
Last year after three races, there were 12 drivers that had completed 100% of the laps. This year only five drivers have completed 100% of the laps through three races. Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch.

My Three Bugs for the Week:
-It seems like every race during the final green flag run, the announcers will say, “The leaders just ran their fastest laps of the day.” This shouldn't be a surprise, yet Larry McReynold's voice rises when he says this. They spend the first 300+ miles fine-tuning their cars, then get fresh tires. Not to mention the fact that it's, well, the end of the race. So to reduce to the simplest terms, the best cars, tweaked towards perfection, are at the front of the pack as the race winds down, increasing the intensity and need to go faster. I don't know if it could get more basic.

-Why Cousin Carl? It doesn't make sense for a nickname. Flipper has meaning. Tony Stewart dubbing Edwards Eddie Haskell works. Aside from the obvious alliteration, Cousin Carl holds zero logic. What is next, Brother Boris? Nephew Nemechek?

-The unofficial office cheerleader. Nearly every office has one. It's the person that organizes the potluck for lunch, decorates other people's desks for birthdays, and asks people to chip in for the Powerball drawing. These things are fine by themselves. Plenty of people enjoy the diversions and they can boost office morale. I also can't take issue with the fact they aren't work related, since 90% of this blog is written during work hours. I may have diversions at work, but when things need to get done I do them right away. The problem is that in my experience, the cheerleader is the first employee to complain about being too busy. Said person might have more time if they weren't always willing to pick up Starbucks for everyone or playing Secret Santa.

What’s bugging you today or this week? Let me know.

Things I don’t want to hear this weekend:

2007-03-09T09:02:00.000-08:00

-“Who will have their luck run out? And who will shoot craps?”-Thanks Chris Myers.

-“Another right front tire problem.”-I really hope Goodyear and NASCAR get it right this weekend.

-“Trouble again for the 8 car”-Love him or hate him, it’s good for NASCAR when Junior runs well. Plus, I happen to like him.

-“Ooh, Deuces wild!”- as Kurt Busch takes the lead. Thanks DW.

-“You know, here in Vegas you want to hit 21, but it looks like 20 is a pretty good number too.”-Larry McReynolds as Tony Stewart opens an 8 second lead.

-“Trouble in Turn 2”-With increased speeds comes increased danger and decreased control. Nobody wants to see another scary crash like David Reutimann’s at California.

-“Who will gamble on fuel here in Sin City?”-Thanks Mike Joy.

-“Caution for debris, that means we’ll have a green, white, checker finish.”-Oh great, phantom caution and a contrived green, white, checker.

-“Honey, can are you going to clean the basement today?”-“Sorry dear, there’s a green white checker!”

Other Thoughts

-Is it me or has this been a really quiet two weeks in the NASCAR world? There is nothing noteworthy happening. It’s been three weeks since Daytona, you would think Silly Season rumors should have surfaced by now. Something about how Jeffrey Earnhardt is going to replace Dale Jr in the 8 car. Or maybe Regan Smith announcing his retirement from Cup racing.

-This weekend is Daylight Savings Time. Don’t forget. It would be a shame to miss an hour of the race by forgetting to spring ahead.

-My prediction for a youngster to win at California was not very accurate. Clint Bowyer ran well, but never threatened. This week is a brand new surface at Las Vegas so I think someone with great car control and probably a veteran will win. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth each have two wins here and either would make sense. I'm going with Jeff Gordon. He ran well at California, and traditionally runs very well higher banked tracks and he won at Chicago last year. Chicago has 18 degrees compared to the new Vegas' 20 degrees.

-Last Thursday marked the annual start of Mustache March. One of my friends is “required” by his work to grow a stache. I decided to join in and grew a killer handlebar. I still need to take a picture, but it most resembles Morgan Spurlock of Super Size Me fame. It only took me two months to grow, but I'm pretty proud. My wife? Not so much.

-And Finally…Introducing Torqued off Tuesdays

I’ve been thinking about a way to create more interaction with fellow NASCAR fans and the loyal readers of my blog (I really appreciate the support by the way). A few years ago I worked at a sports radio station. They had a feature called “What Bugs you Wednesday.” Listeners would call in with their best bugs about sports, work, traffic or life in general. The best ones were pretty funny. So I’ve decided to try something similar beginning next Tuesday. Maybe something in Sunday’s race will get you torqued off, or a coworker that comes by your desk to ask if you got their email, or the dude that cut you off on the freeway. Whatever it is, leave a comment on Tuesday. I’ll come up with a few myself and see how it goes. I wish I had a prize for the best ones, but at least there’s the potential for some fun or catharsis.

Let me know what you think.

How to improve Qualifying (I couldn't think of a better heading)

2007-03-08T13:11:00.000-08:00

Two weeks ago at California Michael Waltrip threw down a qualifying lap that was 34^th fastest. It was faster than 10 teams that made the race, but Waltrip took the long early voyage back across the country. After a tumultuous Speedweeks that saw Waltrip exit with negative points, it was another tough result for the #55 team. Four seasons ago Waltrip wouldn’t have had to worry about explaining to NAPA why they missed the race. The problem now is owner’s points. With the top 35 teams assured spots every Sunday, new teams face a serious challenge to make races. The challenge is compounded this year with so many new teams attempting the full Cup schedule.

A common response from fans is “go fast or go home.” It sounds simple, but the issue is far more complex than simply sending slow teams home. Eliminating all guaranteed spots is not possible. There are too many interests involved for this to work.

Fans come to watch the stars. It is one of the unique attractions that NASCAR can offer. Very few sports can guarantee that all of the top drivers will be in the same event every weekend. Even in golf, stars like Tiger Woods don’t play many of the smaller events.

A paying fan can bank of the fact that Dale Earnhardt Jr, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and almost every other top star will be in the race they choose to attend.

Without some assurance that the stars will race, it opens a door that NASCAR certainly doesn’t want opened. Say Tony Stewart cuts a tire in qualifying at Indianapolis. Suddenly one of the most popular drivers in the sport would not be in the field in one of the biggest races of the year. Stewart fans would miss seeing their favorite driver. Fans who hate Stewart miss out on the chance for their favorite driver to beat Stewart. Race fans as a whole would miss one of the top drivers at one of his favorite tracks. It goes beyond one driver too. If a driver wins, they want beat all the top drivers. Fans want to see a collection of all the top drivers their favorite included.

This also affects the large sponsors. Whether fans like it or not sponsors do have a large say in NASCAR. It makes things murky, but that’s the way it goes when Fortune 500 companies invest seven figures in the sport.

If you are a team inside the top 35, it is a tremendous advantage. First there is little need to work on qualifying setups during practice sessions. They can focus solely on running race trim if desired. Secondly, if they have a safe, slow qualifying lap there is no risk of smacking the wall and ruining a primary car during qualifying.

Guaranteed spots in the field will not go away, but it does need tweaking. The rule’s original intent was to provide some insurance for the teams that attempted every race. Maybe it made sense in 2005 when there were fewer than 43 full time teams. Now there are close to 50 with plans to enter all 36 races. Reduce the number of teams to somewhere between 20 and 25. That way anyone with realistic visions of making the Chase, and this presumably would include most stars, and let everyone else make the race on time.

Another related issue is the Champion’s provisional. NASCAR took a step in the right direction by capping its use to 6 races per season, but they can do more. Make it so a driver can’t use the provisional in consecutive races. That would eliminate teams from hiring a past champion to secure a top 35 spot after five races. Call it the Terry Labonte Rule (it’s nothing against Hall of Fame Racing or Labonte, they played by the rules).

Suddenly instead of 36 of 43 spots guaranteed, the number is reduced to 25. Suddenly 40% of the field is open to the fastest qualifying times. The locked-in drivers would still have an advantage, but it would even the playing field for making each race. Maybe it’s not perfect, but it would be a pretty good compromise.

Can Junior Make the Chase?

2007-03-06T10:25:00.000-08:00

That is the pressing question in the media after the first two races. There are plenty of drivers at the bottom of the point standings, but Junior is the one everyone has an opinion on.

Matt Kenseth is the only driver to rebound from 30^th or worse after two races to make the Chase. Lost of NASCAR writers and announcers love to cite this stat. This is based off of a whopping three years of data. In statistics that’s called a small sample size. Two races is not enough time to evaluate long-term success. The same applies to drawing conclusions or trends off of three seasons.

More data is needed to make a better argument. Going back to 2000 there are eight drivers that have rebounded from an early hole. That still is not a large number, but does show that one driver each year claws his way back to the front. If you factor in drivers 26^th or worse that returned to the top12 by Richmond, the number jumps to 13.

Another factor on Junior’s (or Riggs, Truex, or Kahne) side is there are 12 Chase spots this year. In this scenario, Greg Biffle would have made the top 12 after Richmond. He sat in 38^th place this time last year. The same goes for Tony Stewart who was 28^th after California.

Looking deeper at history, in 1996 Terry Labonte sat 30^th in points after two races. Apparently he felt the season was worth saving and wound up winning the Winston Cup. Under the old point system that is a much higher degree of difficulty. Drivers now just need to crack the top 12 by Richmond to have a shot at the coconut. Labonte also only had 31 total races compared to the current 36 race schedule.

Being locked into the top 35 is another advantage for Earnhardt Jr. Several drivers ahead of him in the points do not have owners points for the first five races. Joe Nemechek is currently inside the top ten, but if he misses a race that is a large point loss for him and other like drivers. Earnhardt is only 122 points outside of 12^th place. That is not a large gap over the course of a season.

The biggest reason why a driver can recover from a bad start to make the Chase is being a good driver on a top team. In 2005 Kenseth ran well in the first two races, but lost an engine at Daytona and cut a tire late at California. He ran much better than his finishes showed. Over the course of the season he began getting the finishes and points he deserved.

The same goes for Junior and others. Earnhardt Jr is 23^rd in driver rating. He has qualified 5^th at both races and had a very fast car at California before the engine expired. The next two months also feature many of his top tracks: Atlanta, Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix, Talladega, Richmond. Obviously there are questions about DEI and the Car of Tomorrow. Love him or hate him (very few are neutral), Junior is one of the best drivers in Cup and that will go a long way at the beginning with the Car of Tomorrow, plus Tony Eury Jr gives him one of the best crew chiefs.

If Junior is still mired in the 20’s or 30’s after Bristol or Martinsville, then it’s time to panic. Until then, there is plenty of time for several drivers to catch up. Not to mention plenty of time for several writers to get a grip.

Las Vegas Entry Notes:

-54 Cup cars want to race at Vegas this week. 18 drivers will compete for seven transfer spots in the race. Ward Burton, Kevin LePage, Jeremy Mayfield, Mike Bliss, Brandon Whitt, Kenny Wallace and AJ Allmendinger will all try to make their first Cup race of 2007. Three strikes to start the season would be rough.

-Most kids get permission to drive the family car for special occasions like prom when they’re 17 or 18. Jon Wood had to wait until he was 25 for his chance. “Now son, I don’t want to see a scratch on it when you bring it home.” Wood makes his debut in the historic 21 car while Ken Schrader is bumped to a second Woods Brothers entry in the 47. That also means that Schrader has to make the race on speed. Aside from four races in 2003, Schrader has started every Cup race since 1985.

-Gibbs development driver Aric Almirola will also attempt his first Cup race. He drove full time in Trucks last season and will run a partial Busch schedule. He is also one of the first NASCAR Drive for Diversity candidates to make it to the national level. I’m surprised he wasn’t given a full ride at either trucks or Busch for 2007.

Mexico City Thoughts

2007-03-05T08:26:00.000-08:00

A few thoughts I had while watching the Mexico Busch race, and my first viewing of the ESPN coverage.

-Juan-Pablo Montoya won a road race in the Busch Series. It was an impressive charge through the field, but let’s not get crazy now. He would have been a favorite had it been his first stock car race. He’s a better driver than any of the road course ringers, plus Ganassi has one of the top road course programs in NASCAR.

-Rusty Wallace missed the point with the Montoya-Pruett incident. He said Pruett would get over it with time. That’s fine, but Pruett only gets 3-4 chances each year to win a stock car race. If Montoya loses, he has full Busch and Cup schedules for other chances. Pruett does not and had a right to be angry. Wallace also cited that Montoya was the best car all day, so things essentially worked out. Apparently that makes everything ok. Montoya did have the best car and could have passed Pruett almost anywhere on the track. That’s what makes the incident more unnecessary. I wonder what Rusty would have said if Montoya bumped Steven Wallace out of the way.

-The first time ESPN checked in with Montoya under yellow, I thought, that’s cool. Then they did it under the very next caution and I thought, just leave his radio on the air and call it good. There are 40 other drivers plus crew chiefs to interview. Brad Parrott was interviewed several times, but they never interviewed anyone else. How about interviewing Boris Said after the race? If they are looking for entertainment, that’s the man to talk to.

-Check out Marcos Ambrose. Despite a late spin he finished 8^th at Mexico City and sits 5^th in the points. With fewer teams running the entire Busch schedule, he has a chance to finish in the top 10. He had a nice season in trucks last year and might attempt a few Cup races this year.

-In the three year history of the race, it was the finest showing for Mexican drivers. Two Mexican drivers finished in the top ten, Jorge Goeters (7^th) and Adrian Fernandez (9^th). Miguel Jordain finished 25^th. Three drivers, Goeters, German Quiroga, and Carlos Contreras, also led laps during the race.

I guess it’s time to bring the big boys back for Vegas. New surface, tire questions, and of course the normal news cycles about Junior's contract, someone hating the Car of Tomorrow, someone hating Toyota and how certain teams must qualify for races. Heck, the season is three weeks old, it's probably time for a Silly Season rumor. It should be an interesting week.

Performance Enhancing Substances in NASCAR?

2007-02-27T21:43:00.000-08:00

Apparently it's news that Barry Bonds' body is different than 15 years ago when he was a Pirate. One of my friends at work and I were discussing Bonds and went off on a tangent about steroids in NASCAR. What if Mark Martin injected HGH into his right foot? Maybe Chad Knaus' baldness is due to heavy use of flaxseed oil which enables him to install illegal car parts? Carl Edwards uses the Cream and the Clear to execute his backflips. Obviously none of it is true, and is one more reason why it is gaining in popularity while baseball can't stop tripping over its own feet.

There is still one driver that is obviously using a substance to enlarge his stature.

1999 2007

Mmm, Blizzards.

The Top 35 Derby

2007-02-27T13:15:00.000-08:00

In European football (soccer for us Yanks) they call it relegation. At the end of the season the bottom three teams in the standings are sent down to the lower division, while three others are promoted. Unlike most

sports leagues, relegation battles create added excitement and interest for teams that otherwise have nothing to play for. Relegation means not only a lower level of competition, but significantly lower revenue. For teams in

England

, staying in the Premiere League means a piece of a billion dollar TV contract (about $60 million USD per team).

An NFL or NBA team that is out of playoff contention begins playing for next year. This often involves passively improving their draft pick status to land the next franchise player. Aside from waning fan support, there is no incentive for the bottom teams to remain competitive. For a losing franchise in the US, there is no reason to take interest.

Maybe the closest a US sport gets to relegation is NASCAR’s top 35 rule. Teams outside the top 35 in owner points have to qualify on time for seven or eight transfer spots to make each race. It’s not always a popular rule among fans, but it has definitely added excitement and interest for cars near the bottom of the standings. If not for the top 35 rule few would have paid attention to Kyle Petty and Sterling Marlin during the Chase. Instead it was an interesting side story as the season wound down. It also means a big difference in revenue for the teams. Obviously missing a race means no prize money, but also the potential of losing sponsors, the costs of traveling to races and their cut in the year end points fund.

The Nextel Cup is only two races in, but some teams are already in a huge hole for 2007. The first big landmark will come after the Bristol race. At that point the top 35 drivers in owner points are locked in. There are 12 teams attempting to enter the top 35, while 35 other teams attempt to stay anchored in the safety zone.

Based on the past three years, 400 points is the magic number for assured safety. That’s the average points total of the 32^nd place driver after 5 races. With more full time drivers competing to make races, that might be too high. 400 points breaks down to averaging 80 points per race, or finishing 26^th. For drivers like Brian Vickers and Paul Menard, who have already missed one race, the average bumps up to 100 points per race or a top 20 every week. Remember, Scott Riggs missed the Daytona 500 in 2006 and was back inside the top 35 by week 6. It’s not an impossible task.
Twelve drivers are trying to wriggle inside the top 35. The results range from sitting pretty to sitting on the edge of a cliff.

Joe Nemechek-A top ten at Daytona was huge. Nemechek currently has 259 points and sits 7^th in points. Ginn Racing has obviously improved all three teams since last year. Nemechek is an excellent qualifier and the points he’s already accumulated provide additional cushion.

Johnny Sauter-After a disastrous 2004 rookie year with Richard Childress, Sauter has returned from Busch purgatory. He was always a good driver-he won a Busch race in 2005- but couldn’t land another Cup ride until this season. Two top 20 finishes in two races quietly puts Sauter on pace to sit inside the top 35 with room to spare. Maybe the bigger concern is ensuring his teammate Jeff Green is around to join him.

Dale Jarrett-It is a different story for Jarrett without his past champion provisional. Using the provisional buys Jarrett at least six races, but he hasn’t piled up points so far. He is 28^th with 164 points, but struggled all day at California. How bad was it? His driver rating was 32.9 while running all day. Martin Truex Jr, who blew an engine after 14 laps, had a 37.1 driver rating. Jarrett should be fine in the long run, but MWR must find more speed.

Sterling Marlin-Qualifying on speed is old news to Marlin, who spent a large part of 2006 outside the top 35. The cars have been better so far this season, but an early crash at California hurt. Marlin’s 170 points puts him ahead of the 400 point pace, but he can’t afford the crashes that plagued him last season.

Brian Vickers-Team Red Bull finally made a race, and the finish was impressive. Doug Richert and Vickers form the best crew chief-driver combination of the Toyota cars. Vickers needs to average 88 points over the next three races to reach the 400 point mark. Qualifying for the Toyotas has still been troublesome, but once Vickers is in the race he is good enough to get Red Bull up and running.

David Reutimann-So far his record shows to races made on speed and three DNF’s including the Twin 150’s. He has been one of the fastest Toyotas in qualifying and certainly the most consistent of the MWR cars. Unfortunately he doesn’t have very many points to show for it. He sits 41^st with 107 points. With two more speedway races and then the rookie-humbling Bristol, it could be a challenge to make the top 35 after Bristol. Reutimann is definitely capable of making races and eventually entering the top 35.

Paul Menard-All the attention is on his teammates and their blown engines, but Menard had a steady race at California. His 103 points puts him in the ballpark for entering the top 35. He is currently 43^rd, although there are two part time drivers ahead of him that he will pass granted he continues to qualify for races. He was second fastest among Need for Speed drivers at California.

Michael Waltrip-The 100 point penalty from Daytona is enormous. After missing the CaliforniaToyota will figure things out as the season continues and all three of Waltrip’s cars will run better. It just won’t be immediately in the top 35. race, Waltrip still sits at -27 points after two races. What’s worse, his teammates were not very good on the intermediate track.

Jeremy Mayfield-The second Bill Davis team was expected to have a head start on the other Toyota teams because it was an established organization. Mayfield is a good driver and should be able to make two or three of the next few races. It is still a large hole missing the first two races. If he can’t make one of the next two races the year might turn into one big R&D session and building towards 2008. It sounds extreme, but that’s how competitive Cup has become.

AJ Allmendinger-It’s not surprising that the driver with no Cup experience would have the hardest time making races. What is surprising is that Allmendinger isn’t running the Busch series. He ran both truck races but he needs as much seat time as possible and Red Bull had to know it would be tough to do so at the Cup level. At least there are two road courses to circle on the calendar.

Mike Bliss, Ward Burton, Kenny Wallace-These teams all have limited resources and zero Cup starts in 2007. It will be a feat to make more than six races combined this year. It will be a greater feat if all three teams are still entering races by the summer.

With five to six outside drivers in good position to enter the top 35, other drivers will fall. Here are five candidates:

Scott Riggs-With a rough start, Riggs again finds himself with a potential battle for the top 35. The 25 point penalty makes the situation more serious. At least Riggs will get crew chief Rodney Childers back for Las Vegas.

Kyle Petty-The 45 team spent last season struggling to regain a place in the top 35. With better funded teams looking to swoop in, Petty can’t afford many more DNF’s.

Ken Schrader-Schrader was the innocent victim of Dave Blaney’s reckless dive-bomb at Daytona. He is strong at short tracks, but he really needs strong runs at Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Jeff Green-Green had a decent run at Daytona ruined by Jimmie Johnson’s crash. Green has always languished in the high 20’s, but that may not be enough this year.

Dave Blaney-A wreck and a blown engine put Blaney in a hole. He has an established team, but the Camry is far from a finished product. Blaney overachieved last season with an under-supported team. If he falls outside the top 35 to start the season it is a squandered opportunity.

View from the Couch: Auto Club 500

2007-02-26T09:38:00.000-08:00

-A flat tire killed Kevin Harvick's chances to win, but he has to be excited about how strong RCR cars were. Not only did they finish strongly, all three hovered in the top ten almost the whole race.

-It was pretty cool to see Matt Kenseth so emotional in victory lane. He won 5 races last season but is still appreciative of how hard it is to win.

-Why did Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch pit after the red flag? They entered the pits in 7th and 8th and then had to pass several cars to finish 8th and 9th respectively. Kurt Busch stayed out and moved from 12th to 7th. Even with fresh tires, seven laps wasn't enough time to make a huge difference.

-Where's Carl Edwards? I didn't hear any reason why he was struggling. Either he had problems that weren't mentioned or the #99 was completely out to lunch. Greg Biffle finished 15th, but that's a big drop from where he usually runs at California. Matt Kenseth won the race, but Roush Racing looks like they did at the end of 2006. It's definitely a long season, but right now the Chevy teams are well ahead of Ford and Dodge.

-Brian Vickers scored Toyota's first top ten in Cup. Vickers also moved up to 34th in the standings after missing Daytona.

-David Reutimann's crash looked horrible. It wasn't so much the crash, but Reutimann's reaction from the in-car cameras. Thankfully he was all right. If anyone needed a reminder why NASCAR stopped racing back to the line, this was it. A frozen field allows safety crews almost instant access to the track instead of waiting longer for the cars to slow. Reutimann took a while to get out of his car and there was a fire.

-Wolfgang Puck gave a shout out to his favorite drivers Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Gordon and Johnson had no part in the bit, but that didn't win any new blue collar fans for the duo. As if Hendrick haters needed more ammunition.

-On the flipside, Dale Earnhardt Jr showed his sense of humor by taking a bow after his spin. It was probably less frustrating since his day was already done by that point.

-DirecTV Hot Pass. Nothing like paying to hear Dale Jr say things like “we lost a cylinder” or watch Kasey Kahne's telemetry while he turns laps in 38^th place. Does anyone know if you can switch drivers with this service? That would be unfortunate if you couldn't.

-Why does Fox insist on showing the lame 3D video game graphics instead of actual video footage? It's like the friend who just got a new useless gadget, but insists on using it anyway. DW keeps saying, "Fans will love it, drivers will hate it." It's actually "fans hate it, drivers probably don't care."

-Having drivers surf in front of a blue screen. Get it? The race is in California. California is the only race venue where Fox feels compelled to havegimmicky promos. Scrap them all together.

-Larry McReynolds' favorite saying,“Guys I've been watching the __ car”. Dear Larry, watching cars is your job. I guess the alternative is doing a bit with corn dogs and fencing.

-I complain about Fox a lot, but they do a good job overall. Mike Joy is usually on top of the action and is quick to identify cars involved in wrecks. McReynolds and Jeff Hammond are at their best when they describe the technical aspects of racing and DW is DW. Fox also gets credit for catching most crashes, pit stops and restarts.

California Thoughts

2007-02-23T10:18:00.000-08:00

Daytona and Speedweeks are done. It was another interesting two weeks capped with a wild finish. It’s a fun way to get the season going, and stirs up interest, but Daytona has little overall bearing on the season. The next four races will play a huge part in who will succeed this season.

This week’s race at California will start answering questions about the season. There are no major changes to the aero package, so it is a good first look at who has their programs together.
Last year Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle dominated California. Many immediately assumed these were the two drivers to beat in 2006. Both had solid to good years, but were far from dominant on intermediate tracks.

Look at the top ten at California:

Matt Kenseth
Jimmie Johnson
Carl Edwards
Kasey Kahne
Jeff Burton
Jamie McMurray
Casey Mears
JJ Yeley
Mark Martin
Kyle Busch

Some drivers like Kenseth, Johnson, Burton and Kahne obviously had their intermediate programs in top form. Others like Stewart, Biffle and Carl Edwards apparently rolled out cars from 2005 (which also explains the engine failures for Stewart and Biffle). Casey Mears and Jamie McMurray spent the rest of the season trying to duplicate their solid runs at California. Other drivers like Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Scott Riggs progressed during the season. A few cars will show up Sunday and dominate the race. It will be interesting to see whether that indicates year long domination or just a holdover from last year.

Other things to watch this weekend:
Juan-Pablo Montoya-He will be exciting to watch all season. He struggled at Daytona, although he did look good during the 150's race. Now he will experience the finicky intermediate aero package. I think he'll qualify well and spend Sunday struggling. That doesn't mean he'll struggle for long this year. Once he figures out how to ask for the right adjustments he will head to the front.

Qualifying-Can Red Bull make a race? They have now entered four Cup races with zero official starts. Brian Vickers' Bud Shootout appearance can't really count. Can the same teams that made Daytona make the field again? Missing one of the first five races is manageable, but two missed races is really hard to crack the top 35.

Momentum-Announcers will surely talk about Kevin Harvick's momentum, but it means nothing. The tracks and cars are totally different. The only momentum that matters is coming off turn 4 in a race, not week to week.

The winner-One of last year's rookies will win. Denny Hamlin had plenty of success last year, Martin Truex Jr had a fast car at Homestead and even JJ Yeley finished 8th here last year. All decent choices, but my pick is Clint Bowyer. After his fiery, muddy crash at Daytona, he'll heed Jay-Z's advice, brush his shoulders off and win his first Cup race. He finished third last Labor Day weekend at California and had some fast cars during the Chase.

Tending to the Wilting Busch Series

2007-02-22T14:26:00.000-08:00

The Busch Series is in big trouble. So is the Truck series, but since I don’t get Speed TV, it’s rare for me to catch a Truck Race. The Diecast Dude wrote a very good post on the woes of the CTS. There isn’t a simple solution. \there are several complex issues that will take some vision, time and money. I hope to look at some of the problems with the series over the course of the season. Previously I questioned how the series can adequately develop young drivers. Now it's time to peer at the purses.

When you look at the weekly Cup entry list this year, it will top 50 every week. NASCAR officials love to point this out as evidence of the health of the sport. It’s partially true. Nextel Cup has an embarrassment of riches at the Cup level. Lots of prominent teams, plenty of big dollar sponsors and intense competition to simply make races each week.

Unfortunately the Busch and Truck entry lists are less than full fields heading to California. Keep in mind this is a companion weekend when it’s easiest for Cup teams to pull double-duty. The small fields will continue all year. Aside from the Mexico City and the Montreal Busch races, stand alone Truck and Busch fields will be even smaller.

One of the largest reasons for the Busch shortage is the prize money. It is a fraction of Nextel Cup purses. Kyle Petty won $248,050 for finishing 42^nd in the Daytona 500. That’s more than double what Kevin Harvick won ($116,200) for winning the Orbitz 300 Busch race. In fact, Harvick’s $1.5 million check for the Daytona 500 was as much as the top 26 drivers in the Busch race.

If a team wants to turn a profit it is much easier to do so in Cup. Spend a little more with a significantly greater reward. Look at part time teams like Phoenix Racing and No Fear. Mike Wallace’s 4^th place finish was worth $615, 658. That’s almost as much money that Wallace won in 23 Busch races last season. Obviously small part-time teams can’t count on a top five finish, but simply making a Cup race pays well. Boris Said made $307,375 for No Fear Racing.

The other problem is sponsors. In 2006 Harvick won nine races and the Busch Championship and still lost his sponsor. Either the Coast Guard got a lifetime supply of publicity last year, or they didn’t see the value in sponsoring a Busch car. If a Cup star and Busch Champion can’t hold on to sponsorship, how can Busch regulars hope to? The price for sponsorship in the lower levels is cheaper, but companies often prefer to move to the higher profile Cup scene.

After getting squeezed out the past few seasons by Buschwhackers, full-time Busch teams have either moved to Cup or packed up for good. Now the series will pay for that this year. There are plenty of reasons why the Busch series is struggling and likewise plenty of solutions. Increasing the prize money, especially for the full-time Busch teams, would give more incentive to stay with the series.

Airing all the races exlusively on ESPN plus a new title sponsor in 2008 is a good start. NASCAR now must ensure that the extra cash flow is properly reinvested in the Busch series and for the benefit of the series.

A few Random Thoughts from yesterday's race.

2007-02-19T15:34:00.000-08:00

-Everyone will remember the wild finish and the multiple wrecks in the final 25 laps. That's probably good, because the first 175 laps were very boring. Maybe as boring as next Sunday's race at California.

-Don't get mad at Kevin Harvick for “stealing” Mark Martin's win. He was doing his job. Everyone else wrecked on the final lap trying to pass Martin too. As much as Martin deserves to win a Daytona 500 (and a Cup for that matter), no one was going to simply sit back and hand it to Martin. And there's no doubt Martin would be upset if anyone did sit back and serve him the win.

-People complain the caution should have been thrown. If NASCAR throws the caution, people complain that a good finish was spoiled. Damned if you do...

-In the last two years, Hendrick won five of the eight restrictor plate races. they often placed multiple drivers in the top ten. They were easily the top plate program in NASCAR. Granted yesterday's race placed a greater emphasis on handling than pure horsepower, but aside from Kyle Busch, Hendrick's big guns were never a factor. Yes, Ginn and Haas cars have Hendrick power, and were strong yesterday, but they obviously found a package that worked better than the four in-house Hendrick cars.

-Three commercials really stuck out as entertaining. The Tony Stewart Sunoco commercial where he goes to the grocery store with a fan (and climbs a shelf). Denny Hamlin racing a scooter at a retirement home. Jimmie Johnson showing his Nextel Cup to Elliot Sadler.

-Worst in-race feature: Domino's Hot lap.Fox compared the times of the top five qualifiers on an arbitrary lap in the middle of the race. It is pretty meaningless at most tracks, but a fast lap at a plate race is almost as meaningless as qualifying in the top five. It was even worse when the “winner” of the Hot Lap was Jeff Gordon, who was running 28^th at the time.

-Several full-time teams outside the top 35 had pretty good days. Joe Nemechek finished 7^th, Johnny Sauter 15^th, and Sterling Marlin 16^th. Dale Jarrett is secure for the first six races but helped his cause with a solid 21^st.

-Brian Vickers, Paul Menard and A.J. Allmendinger missed the Daytona 500, but at least they are still ahead of Michael Waltrip in the standings. Waltrip earned -23 points for his efforts Sunday.

-Lamest Quote: Mike Joy, “Can you hold your breath for 33 more laps?” Mike, that sounded a lot like something Bill Weber would ask. It's also easier to breathe with so many commercial breaks.

-I skipped the pre-race coverage, but was pleased with the race coverage. Fox didn't dwell on the cheating issues too much, and DW didn't even babble about Toyotas in excess.

-Maybe this is nitpicking. On ESPN's ticker it reads, “Kevin Harvick wins NASCAR Nextel Cup Daytona 500.” It's the biggest motorsports event in the US, and I think even the most clueless sports fan knows what sport the Daytona 500 is in. ESPN would never have to tell people that the Cardinals won the Major League Baseball World Series.

2007 Cup Predictions (bookmark this for crow-eating purposes)

2007-02-17T19:17:00.000-08:00

I realize that my top ten driver and rookie previews will go unfinished. While I'm disappointed with myself, it was fun to run through over 30 drivers leading up to the top ten. It was a combination of other commitments, the feeling that I was writing the same thing for every driver, and also the fact that most NASCAR fans know plenty about the top ten drivers.

I've managed to wait until the very last minute before making my 2007 predictions prior to Daytona. I got five out of ten last year and expect about the same this year.

Predictions for the 12 Chasers:
#1 Martin Truex Jr.-The more I think about him, the more I'm convinced he is going to have a big year. Truex is strong at most types of tracks and the team now has a better handle on setups and in-race adjustments.

#2 Kurt Busch-Last year was a transition year for both Busch and Penske Racing. Busch is one of the five best drivers in the sport. If he can finish races as well as he starts them, watch out.

#5 Kyle Busch-Some people, including Kurt, believe Kyle is the most talented Busch boy. One question for the #5 team is how they interact with the new team behind the #25 car, including Casey Mears and new crew chief Darian Grubb. He will contend for the Cup, but fall just short.

#07 Clint Bowyer-It's a safe bet that he will win a race in 2007. He took full advantage of RCR's improved equipment, especially on the intermediate tracks. The biggest key for Bowyer is the short tracks, where he will need more patience.

#8 Dale Earnhardt Jr-Look past the contract squabble. Earnhardt and Eury got the job done last year. If they stay on top of the Car of Tomorrow it could be a title contending team.

#9 Kasey Kahne-A new nose for the Charger might help neutralize the cars on speedways. Kahne still needs to hold up his end of the consistency stick by reducing the number of late-race crashes.

#16 Greg Biffle-New crew chief Pat Tryson rebuilt the crew for the 16 car. Things aren't perfect at Roush, but they're still good enough to send drivers to the Chase.

#20 Tony Stewart-Smoke is the trendy pick to win everything this year. There is no reason to think he won't dominate, but it's not guaranteed either.

#24 Jeff Gordon-Gordon and Steve Letarte have the best resources in Cup. The problem is there are too many small holes in their program that take him down a notch compared to Stewart, Johnson or Harvick.

#29 Kevin Harvick-Harvick proved in 2006 that he is an elite driver. Not only did he finally have consistent equipment from RCR, but he also didn't lose his emotions like he had in previous years. Their diligence on the Car of Tomorrow gives Harvick an edge at the mile and less tracks.

#48 Jimmie Johnson-Like Stewart, there is no reason why Johnson can't win the Cup. He should win several races and be extremely consistent, but it is just too hard to repeat.

#99 Carl Edwards-Will there be a backflip this year? Missing the Chase and reuniting with Bob Osborne should allow Edwards to return to form.

On the outside looking in (otherwise known as the drivers that make the Chase when France expands to 15 in 2008):
#17 Matt Kenseth- Things were not right on the #17 car at the end of the season. It might be time for a makeover for the team.
#11 Denny Hamlin- Hamlin's 2006 season was divine. Even when he spun in the grass he could still recover to win the race. Despite top-notch Gibbs equipment, Hamlin will eventually run into a slump this season.
#42-Juan-Pablo Montoya- He'll crash and struggle some in Ganassi equipment, but he may also be this year's Denny Hamlin. While other rookies struggle to qualify, he's busy racing for top tens right off the bat.

And the winner is...
The biggest unknown is the Car of Tomorrow. Five of the Chase races will feature the new ride. The team that figures out how to get the car to turn well is going to win the Chase. RCR has spent a lot of energy and money to ensure they are prepared for the new car. The #29 team was the best at flat 1-mile tracks where getting the car to roll through the corners is vital. That is why Kevin Harvick will have an edge on other teams. It will make the difference for him to capture his first championship at the Cup level.

NASCAR through the lens of the wife

2007-02-15T13:13:00.000-08:00

It’s not only because of Valentine’s Day that I say this, but my wife is pretty smart. She doesn’t really follow sports on her own time, but she is married to me. By default she has graduated beyond an elementary knowledge of sports. For instance she can identify the majority of the cars and drivers in Nextel Cup. From time to time I like to ask my wife what she thinks about current topics in sports. I simply present the facts without my opinion or editorial. It’s amazing how often she comes up with the most sensible answer. For example, I once explained how the BCS system worked in college football. She paused and then aksed, “Why don’t they just do a playoff? Wouldn’t that be easier?” Yes it would dear, yes it would.

Yesterday I told her what happened to Michael Waltrip and the other violators (she loves Kasey Kahne and Elliot Sadler, so the news hit hard for her). I explained that they ejected the respective crew chief/team director/man that sits atop the pit box, and also penalized Waltrip 100 points. Her first question was, “Why don’t they just kick the drivers out of the race?”

I think that echoes what many people think about this latest episode.

Other Thoughts:

With all of the cheating prior to Daytona, I’ve really been wondering what the motivation is. Last year it was Chad Knaus, in 2005 Todd Berrier was suspended for actions at Talladega. Gaining an edge in qualifying for a restrictor plate race makes little sense. Especially when the penalty last year was a 4 race suspension and loss of points.

I don’t like speculating and I have no concrete idea why they cheat. From what I can figure, there are two points worth mentioning. One, teams wouldn’t risk a 4 race suspension unless there was a gain greater than a fast qualifying run at a track where starting position is worthless. There has to be a good motive why teams are spending time and money on cheating. It can’t be as simple as what shows on the surface. No one would risk penalty for mere defiance.

The second point deals with the “why”. My thought is that teams are using Speedweeks as a giant test to see what will sneak past inspection in order to use these tricks at future tracks. It is possible that they try things at Daytona or Talladega for the exact reason that qualifying doesn’t matter. If something is caught, they go to the back of the line. If something makes it through, maybe a team uses a qualifying trick at a track where qualifying is more important.

Instead of my speculation, I would love to see a credential-carrying reported get the reason from the garage. On a related note, is anyone being productive today during the Duels?

Surprises, quasi-surprises and other thoughts

2007-02-12T11:23:00.000-08:00

This morning there is a near consensus among NASCAR writers and bloggers. David Gillialand's pole win is a surprise. I've even seen it dubbed a Cinderella story. Did everyone forget that Gilliland won the last restrictor plate pole at Talladega last October? Or that Yates Engines have captured six of the last nine poles at Talladega and Daytona? RYR's performance has declined in the past few seasons, but the one area that is always top notch is their plate program. It is somewhat surprising that Boris Said qualified fifth, but he won the July pole last year. I thought the bigger surprise was how well the Ganassi cars fared. Both Juan-Pablo Montoya and David Stremme were fast, although something happened with Reed Sorenson's car during the second lap.

-The other prevalent thought among writers and bloggers is that the Bud Shootout proved Tony Stewart will have a big season. I agree Stewart will be a threat in 2007, but not because he won the Shootout. The win enforced that he's a great plate driver and had the best backup car among the field. It's the first action during the season and people love drawing conclusions, but the Bud Shootout has very little bearing on the season. In fact the Daytona 500 itself has little impact on the shape of the season. Races 2-8 will be the real barometer. California, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Texas will show who has the best intermediate package. Bristol, Martinsville and Phoenix will show who did their homework on the Car of Tomorrow. We'll hear plenty about how Stewart has momentum or the Daytona 500 is now a title threat, but ignore it. Jimmie Johnson didn't win or lose the Cup last year because he won the 500. He won because his team was good everywhere.

-I can understand Michael Waltrip's need to push the rules envelope to find a speed advantage. I never understand teams inside the top 35 that try to cheat at restrictor plate tracks, especially during Daytona 500 qualifying. Unless Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth really wanted to win the pole, there is no point in cheating. First, they are assured a place in the race. Second, single-car qualifying beyond the top two spots has almost zero bearing on your starting position for the 500. And third, aside from pit selection, the starting position means very little in a plate race. Yet people constantly try to get away with modifications every year.

-Fox's new 3D model to show crashes sounded good on paper. Then they used it during the last lap crash in the Bud Shootout. It showed nothing that the on-board cameras didn't. In fact it was about as cutting edge as the commercial that re-enacts the 1979 Daytona 500. Maybe it will improve during the season.

-In one weekend, I'm already tired of the DirecTV ad with Dale Jr. Ditto for the Subway ad with Tony Stewart. Each ad must have played 10 times each over two days. Stewart (and Michael Strahan) has to introduce his full name, but Jared Fogel just says, "Hi, I'm Jared." Does that bother anyone else? Who is the bigger star here? It's time for some new NASCAR commercials.

Break Out the Antacid

2007-02-12T09:56:00.000-08:00

For a lot of teams Speedweeks this year is not very fun. Some very high profile, not to mention well-sponsored teams are not going make the Daytona 500. After single car qualifying, there are now 39 drivers locked in for next Sunday: the top 35 in owner points, Boris Said, Sterling Marlin and Johnny Sauter based on speed, plus Dale Jarrett's champion's provisional. Quick math shows there's only four spots left for the Daytona 500. Among the 22 teams on the bubble, nine have plans to run the entire schedule. Most have sponsorship, including prominent companies like NAPA, Dominos, Menards, and Red Bulll. At least five are leaving on Thursday. That means several teams will spend the next three days worrying and working on their cars to find more speed. It also means working on their answer to sponsors for why they missed NASCAR's highest profile race.

Is it possible that Thursday's Duel 150's could have more intrigue than Sunday's race? That's a stretch, but for a lot of teams it will set a tone for the season. Miss a race and it makes it much harder to enter the top 35 in points. Within the greater storyline to make the race, there are several smaller plots. Among the cars competing for the transfer spots, there are three formerDaytona 500 winners. Of the eight Toyota entries, only Jarrett and Dave Blaney have guaranteed spots. Two are certain to miss the race, but based on qualifying speeds, it will be more. Neither Toyota driver in the BudShooutout (Brian Vickers , Jarrett) did anything to show they are better in the draft than qualifying. Another problem is that one of the fastest Toyota's was Mike Skinner, a part-time entry. If Skinner makes the race, but teammate JeremyMayfield doesn't, how will Bill Davis handle that?

The two highest finishing drivers in each heat will make the race, with a few exceptions. If any of the three top qualifiers (Said, Sauter or Marlin) finish in the first two transfer spots, the next fastest qualifier makes the race, which is Jeremy Mayfield, then David Reutimann . The same would happen with the past Champion provisional. If Jarrett captures on the the transfer spots, then the provisional would fall to Bill Elliott.

Handicapping the field, Jeremy Mayfield is in good shape in Heat 1. Ward Burton and Bill Elliott have both won Daytona 500's, but can't overcome the limits of their cars. AJ Allmendinger has one plate race in the Truck Series and Team Red Bull is yet to qualify for a Cup race. It's a real long shot for Allmendinger. It is hard enough for a rookie to get drafting help, let alone a rookie with almost no stock car experience. Michael Waltrip's car was impounded after qualifying. Apparently it's not an infraction, but it does cost the team time that they can't work on the car.Waltrip is a good plate racer who is capable of hooking up with the right drafting partners. It's a big help to have his teammate Jarrett in his heat.

In heat 2, David Reutimann is a rookie, but has raced in 6 plate races in the Truck and Busch series. He was one of the fastest Toyotas and has the best chance of the Toyotas to make the field. DEI traditionally has stronger cars in race trim which should allow Paul Menard to compete better than his qualifying time suggests. JoeNemechek will hope for the same thing, and Ginn racing does have Hendrick power to boos that effort. Brian Vickers is a good plate racer but the Toyotas haven't been very strong so far. Unless he learned something on Saturday night, his chances do not look very good. The X factor as far as full-time teams are concerned is Mike Skinner. He has made two of the last threeDaytona 500's as a part time driver and was one of the quicker cars on Sunday.

All the preparation, speed and drafting partners still might not be enough. Scott Riggs had a mechanical issue during qualifying and then a problem in the pits cost him his chance in the 500. Menard suffered a flat tire in his heat last year. The unknown only adds more pressure and anxiety for the drivers leading up to Thursday afternoon. Obviously missing the first race is not a fatal blow, look at Riggs for exhibit A. The problem is there will be 12 full-time teams next week at California all trying to make the race all over again.

2007-02-07T10:29:00.000-08:00

Sign up for Fantasy Racing!

I found this article and couldn't resist commenting on it. Apparently all it takes for Jamie McMurray to improve in 2007 is a better mental approach. Forget fast cars, a good pit crew, skilled engineers or a smart crew chief, the biggest factor is how well McMurray's noodle handles the rigors of 36 races. Not only that, but the writer Jeff Owens never specifies why McMurray is mentally stronger. Instead he says:

His greatest asset, though, may be a newfound mental toughness, one that requires him to focus on positive things instead of any shortcomings.

That could be the edge that pushes him over the top, allowing him to realize his potential and finally produce that much-anticipated breakout campaign.

Did he train under Pai Mei in the offseason, drink raw eggs every morning, or spend endless hours playing chess? No he just thought happy thoughts, which obviously worked for the fictitious Happy Gilmore.

It could be the thing that erases his frown and replaces it with a smile.
Young racers take heed!
Turn that frown upside down and you will win a NASCAR crown!

I don't completely discount mental toughness, it is definitely a factor in success. It has to be when you are strapped in a blazing hot car for 3+ hours while trying to push the envelope for what a stock car can do. Since very few sports writers have a degree in psychology, however, let's leave the mental intangibles angle out of it. Writers and broadcasters love talking about mental toughness, basketball IQ or momentum (On a side note, I'd love to see Roger Ebert talk about George Clooney's mental toughness or Will Ferrell's movie IQ). The greatest factor for success in any sport is talent. Whether it is individual or a collective team, it is still talent that wins.

McMurray is certainly capable of making the Chase. He will make the Chase because of his driving talent combined with his team's talent. It also doesn't hurt having two additional spots in the Chase.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Stewart

2007-02-06T11:14:00.000-08:00

Tony Stewart Age: 35
5 wins, 15 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, 24 top 15’s
Avg Start: 16.7 Avg Finish: 13.8
Points Standing: 11^th Driver Rating: 97.0
#20 Home Depot Chevy Crew Chief: Greg Zipadelli

For Tony Stewart, no season is uneventful, quiet or simple. By those criteria, it was a pretty normal season for Smoke. He won five races, stirred up controversy, fractured his shoulder blade, and missed the Chase.

Stewart’s season began in typical fashion with both success and controversy. A week after warning drivers of excessive bump drafting, it was Stewart getting penalized for ramming into Matt Kenseth at the Daytona 500. Despite damage, Stewart still finished 5^th. The following week he led 28 laps before losing an engine late. He led laps in the first nine races, but only one win at Martinsville for his efforts. It was still a solid start and many predicted he would cruise into the Chase and vie for a third title.

A funny thing happened on the way to engraving his trophy. Stewart’s summer was inconsistent and he failed to make the Chase. Stewart’s regular season was very similar to Greg Biffle’s, the driver who finished second to Stewart in 2005. Both ran very well in the majority of races, but often finished much lower than deserved. Cracks began showing in the spring at Charlotte. After two hard crashes in both the Busch and Cup races, Stewart fractured his shoulder blade. This caused great discomfort the following week at Dover. He started the race, but was replaced by Ricky Rudd during the first caution. Rudd finished 25^th.

One of the more entertaining images during the season was Stewart pounding dents out of his car after an early crash at Michigan. It was only three weeks after he injured his shoulder. He defended his trophy at the summer Daytona race, his second win of the season, but then things fell apart in July.

He was in the top five at Chicago before running out of fuel to finish 32^nd. The following week at Loudon he was leading the race and looked to have a stout car. Then he scuffled with Ryan Newman when Newman tried to get a lap back from Stewart. Both cars crashed and it was Stewart’s second straight finish in the 30’s. The following week at Pocono he again got in a dust-up, this time spinning Clint Bowyer. The crash also collected Carl Edwards, who retaliated by spinning Stewart entering the pits. Stewart was penalized but did recover to finish 7^th, but it ended a tumultuous month.

Suddenly he went from a lock for the Chase to sitting on the bubble. The final blow came at Richmond where he crashed his primary car in practice. He struggled during the race, finished 18^th^th in 2005 but 6 in 2006. and barely missed the Chase. There were plenty of missed chances during the first 26 races. Stewart had two finishes worse than 30

Reduced to driving for wins, Stewart was free to experiment a little during the Chase. He won at Kansas by gambling on fuel. Then the team found a fast setup for both Atlanta and its cousin track Texas, where he won both races. Stewart had five top fives during the Chase including wins 3,4 and 5.

Aside from the disappointment of missing the Chase, Stewart’s season was impressive. He scored 5 wins for the second straight season, led the most laps, was third in top fives, second in earnings and fifth in driver rating. After a nearly flawless 2005, his 2006 effort was a pretty decent encore.

Stewart will begin 2007 like he did in 2006, a favorite to win the Cup and considered one of the best drivers in the world. The #20 team has every ingredient necessary for success. He can win anywhere; in fact there are only four current tracks where he hasn’t won. Joe Gibbs is one of the top three or four organizations in Cup and Greg Zipadelli is the longest tenured crew chief. It all points to one of the elite teams in NASCAR.

One of the tracks Stewart hasn’t won at is Talladega, but it might be one of his best. He has six second place finishes, 8 top fives and an average finish of 11.9. A win at Talladega or in the Daytona 500 would definitely add another highlight to his impressive resume.

No driver has repeated since Jeff Gordon nearly ten years ago and for good reason. There are more requirements and commitments for the current champion than other drivers. This can drain a driver and will ultimately hurt performance at some level. Without this burden Stewart could have another stellar and consistent season.

Maybe the only question mark for Stewart is the Car of Tomorrow. Gibbs and Stewart should cope well with the brand new car, but it is such an unknown that there is a chance to slip. Stewart can certainly drive any type of car on any type of track, so the new body type won’t be a problem granted Gibbs gives him adjustable cars. The only other question mark is his emotions, which can cost him at times.

Stewart will make the Chase this year. Despite last year’s struggles he still almost made the playoff field. With 12 spots, plus a few more points for each win, Stewart should coast into the Chase. Once he gets in he is an instant favorite to win it all.

Fantasy League Anyone?

2007-02-06T09:31:00.000-08:00

Time is running out on the preseason. Speedweeks is coming very very soon. With the Super Bowl finished and hung on the clothesline to drip dry, it's finally time to focus all attention on NASCAR. Some will buy more die-cast cars, others will repaint their Casey Mears or Brian Vickers bobbleheads, and still others will begin preliminary sketches for their #3 (or #6.7) Budweiser tattoos. Personally I'm busy getting my S-10 to work in the draft on the freeway. I move the seat up a few notches, add some tape to the grill, get a car wash, and hit the interstate. It's a nice way to see how bad others have got it. Unfortunately, most drivers don't care for getting bump drafted. Apparently there are not that many NASCAR fans on my morning commute, or maybe they just don't like plate races.

This blog, along with several other great blogs, has helped to soothe my need to talk and experience NASCAR. I appreciate all the people that have read and commented in the past few months. It's kind of neat to be part of a community of sorts. Now I'm wondering if anyone is interested in joining a Fantasy league. It doesn't matter what kind of league, there are so many out there. I played Yahoo's version last season and it was simple. The drivers are slotted into three classes and you have to pick two to four drivers from each class. You can choose different drivers every week, but can only start a driver 9 times during the season. I am open to other style leagues or whatever.

If anyone is interested leave a comment or email me (mjmaruska@gmail.com). I think it could be a lot of fun and shouldn't require a lot of extra time.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Carl Edwards

2007-01-31T22:40:00.000-08:00

Carl Edwards Age: 27
0 wins, 10 top 5's, 20 top 10's, 24 top 15's,
Avg Start: 19.3 Avg finish 15.2
Points Standing: 12^th Driver Rating:87.6
#99 Office Depot Ford Crew Chief: Bob Osborne

Carl Edwards surprised everyone by winning four races and nearly winning the Chase in 2005. It was nearly as shocking that he had zero wins and missed the Chase in 2006. That means 2007 is a rubber-year of sorts. Will the real Carl Edwards please stand up or at least backflip?

It's not that Edwards' 2006 was a complete failure. Expectations were a little too lofty for a driver with only 49 Cup starts prior to 2006. He didn't win any races and never really threatened to make the Chase. The season had an inconsistent start due to bad luck (crash at Daytona, engine at Darlington), pit problems (Atlanta) and impatience (crash at Texas). 4 sub-35 finishes in the first 11 races dug Edwards a large hole. After the Texas race, Jack Roush moved crew chief Bob Osborne to Jamie McMurray's team hoping to get the new #26 team some traction. Edwards got engineer Wally Brown as his new pit boss. The change was intended to help McMurray's team and Roush said it did not reflect on Edwards' performance. Edwards was still unhappy with the change, although the results did improve for the #99.

Edwards had three straight top ten starts and finishes after the change. Although he had several solid finishes during the summer, there were too many poor finishes mixed in. He finished 25^th at the June Pocono race, a race he won last year. He had another crash at Daytona (39^th) and struggled at Chicago (20^th). One race that really hurt his Chase chances was the July Pocono race. Edwards was collected in an incident between Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer. Realizing how the crash hurt his Chase outlook, Edwards retaliated against Stewart, spinning him while entering the pits. He was fined and placed on probation by NASCAR. Edwards' frustration continued to mount.

During the Michigan Busch race in August, things boiled over. Edwards was bumped and wrecked on the last lap of the race by Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt was declared the winner and during his victory lap Edwards returned to the track to bump him. He also confronted Earnhardt in victory lane, causing more embarassment than reaching resolution. In both incidents, Edwards was the innocent party. His mistake was escalating things. Later in the year he proved he learned from his lessons. Another wreck not of his doing, this time with Casey Mears was shrugged off by a patient Edwards.

Although he didn't pull any backflips on the Cup side, Edwards did score 4 Busch wins during a 2nd place points finish. He proved he can win at different types of tracks and he should return to winning on the Cup side very soon.His best tracks are 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, California, Michigan, Atlanta and Texas. In two-plus years he has also added short tracks and 1 mile tracks to his repertoire. He also scored top tens at both road courses.

Roush Racing is very different than 2005 when they put all five cars in the Chase. Only one team has the same driver and crew chief from last season. Mark Martin is gone, replaced by inexperienced rookie David Ragan. Their vaunted intermediate program is also not the same. There were times in 2005 when Roush drivers were literally taking turns leading races. That didn't happen very much last year. Matt Kenseth was strong all season until the Chase. Edwards and Biffle had good runs, but not always at the same time. McMurray never found consistency at the intermediate tracks.

With two races left in 2006, Brown announced he would not return to Roush Racing. The opened the door for Roush to hit undo and switch Osborne back to Edwards' team. The return of Osborne is a good sign, but it is only a part of the solution for the #99 team. It is a similar situation to Dale Earnhardt Jr in 2005. After a rough season, Junior reunited with Tony Eury Jr. It was a step in the right direction, but it also took DEI time to improve the cars. It took Earnhardt most of the spring before he began resumed running up front consistently.Neither Edwards and Roush didn't suffer the sever decline that DEI did. It may not take as long, but there will probably be an adjustment period.

During the 2005 season Edwards had everything go his way. He only had one DNF and five finishes of 30th or worse. Compare that with 3 DNF's and 7 sub-30 finishes in 2006, and it's clearer how he struggled more in his sophomore season. If Roush and Edwards suffered a down year in 2006, it still wasn't that bad. He finished on a high note, with seven top tens and an average finish of 9.0 over the final ten races. Edwards is a safe bet to make the Chase and the final ten races set up very well for his stregths. Two wins is a reasonable goal, along with 10-12 top 5's and 20 top tens. That, for a change, wouldn't surprise anyone.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Greg Biffle

2007-01-30T12:48:00.000-08:00

Greg Biffle Age: 37
2 wins, 8 top 5's, 14 top 10's, 19 top 15's
Avg Start: 14.4, Avg Finish: 18.8
Points Standing: 13^th Driver Rating: 94.9
#16 Ameriquest Ford Crew Chief: Pat Tryson

After winning a Cup best six races and finishing 2^nd in the points, Greg Biffle was on the short list of Nextel Cup contenders. Then the 2006 season got off to a rotten start. Biffle led laps in the first ten races except for Martinsville, but only had one top ten finish to show for it. He packed an entire season of bad luck in the first ten races: Crashes at Daytona and Texas. Blown engines at California and Talladega. Flat tires at Atlanta and Bristol. Ran out of fuel at Phoenix.

Biffle began getting his deserved finishes with a fourth at Richmond, followed by a win at Darlington. It was his second straight win at one of the toughest tracks in NASCAR. It also spurred a run of seven straight top ten finishes. The hot streak continued into July. After a 3^rd place at Loudon Biffle entered the top 10 for the first time all season. It wouldn't last. He suffered last lap at incidents at Pocono and Indianapolis to effectively end his chances of making the Chase. He only scored two top tens in last seven races leading up to the Chase.

The final ten races the focus shifted towards 2007. Biffle suffered three more DNF's, giving him six for the year. That marked the most since his rookie season in 2003. He still managed three top fives during the Chase, including his third straight win at Homestead. It wasn't the season many expected, but Biffle still managed to close on a strong note.

Biffle did have a slow start, but the problem was not always performance. His 94.9 driver rating was eighth best compared to his 13^th place point finish. The driver rating gives a better indication of how he ran at times. He was third in laps led, and won multiple races for the third straight season. Despite his numbers hinting at strong runs, he was not getting the deserved finishes. As the season wound down, it was obvious that Roush was in transition.

The theme for Biffle and Roush Racing in 2007 is change. After a sluggish 2006 season, changes were expected. Pat Tryson moved from the #6 car to Biffle's team to replace departing Doug Richert. Tryson was also allowed to assemble a new crew from the best members of the two teams. A change was needed, but was nudging Richert out the door the right move? Biffle and Richert combined for ten wins over the past three seasons.

Talent-wise, there is no drop off from Richert to Tryson. Tryson is a top crew chief in his own right. He captained Mark Martin to three straight Chase berths. While the talent level is the same, chemistry with different drivers is never a guarantee. Biffle's definition of loose is surely different than Martin's. It may take time for the new pairing to jell and perfect their communication.

After an almost flawless 2005 season for Roush, things didn't go as smoothly last year. All five of the Roush cars slumped at some point during the season. Excluding two wins by Matt Kenseth, Roush struggled too often at the 1.5 and 2 mile tracks, the company's unquestioned strength in past years.

Biffle has incredible car control, making him great at qualifying(15.5 career starting position) and also capable of winning at almost every track. He is best when tracks are slippery and have less grip. His ascent at the Cup level coincided with Roush Racing's dominance at the intermediate tracks. His wheelhouse is tracks like California, Michigan, Texas, and Darlington. That doesn't mean he is strictly a speedway star. He has a restrictor plate win, is excellent at Bristol and has had very good runs at Richmond, Phoenix and Loudon.

Despite Roush's struggles, the team still won six races and sent two drivers to the Chase. They have some of the deepest resources in Cup. It's a good bet that the teams will correct some of the problems from last season. With other teams expanding and Toyota entering Cup, the Competition is tougher than ever. Roush and Biffle have a smaller margin of error for early season troubles.

The biggest key for Biffle's season is how quickly he can connect with Tryson. He will have the best tools available at Roush to help him return to the Chase. Biffle is again a contender for the Nextel Cup. If the cars are improved Biffle should win at least three wins. With two additional Chase transfer spots, Biffle will also have less trouble making the Chase. Once there is a threat to win it all. If he does that, he'd also be the first driver to win Championships at all three of NASCAR's major levels.

Random NASCAR Thoughts

2007-01-29T21:44:00.000-08:00

Yes, I'm getting behind on my preview posts. They are coming, but lately I've been busier than anticipated. Sorry about that. In the meantime, there are a few things I've been pondering:

-Martin Truex Jr's erm, Ticket.
Truex gets arrested for public urination, which only endears him to fans more. The possiblity that he may have handed the police officer a $100 before doing his business, only enhances the story. I like Truex and like most people, think it's more humorous than harmful. It got me thinking about Kurt Busch's citation in Phoenix in 2005. The actual events prior to the ticket are pretty similar. Busch was pulled over for erratic driving after having a beer or two with dinner. He mouthed off to an officer and was arrested and cited. This also gave Roush Racing a convenient opportunity to release him from the last two races and also served the media a story to blow out of proportion during an otherwise mediocre Chase.

The differences? Truex was not involved in the Chase, his arrest occurred during the offeseason and he is held in a positive public light. Neither driver is in the right, I'm only pointing out the differences in coverage and perception over basically the same incident.

-New Point System creates new excitement.
Now drivers have two choices to obtain those delicious five extra points:
A.) Take a fourth place car and risk wrecking on the last lap to win a race.
B.) Simply stay out under yellow and jockey with David Stremme and Kyle Petty for five bonus points.

Most drivers will surely choose A. in hopes of higher ratings. Expanding the field is not a big deal, but ten was fine. At least NASCAR was smart enough to keep the point system the same for Chase and Non-chase drivers. That would have been a huge mistake as David Poole details.

-Kelly Clarkson to sing at Daytona.
I'd rather watch Steve Carell get his chest waxed. D'OOOHHH KELLY CLARKSON!

Less than 3 weeks until Daytona!

NASCAR Driver Preview: Casey Mears

2007-01-25T13:13:00.000-08:00

Casey Mears Age: 28
0 wins, 2 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 12 top 15’s
Avg Start: 22.9 Avg finish: 18.6
Points Standing: 14th Driver Rating: 70.8
#25 National Guard Chevy Crew Chief: Lance McGrew

A driver upgrading from the #42 Ganassi team to a top multi-car team. It’s a familiar story. After four seasons with Ganassi, Casey Mears is moving to Hendrick Motorsports for 2007. The Jamie McMurray saga last year could also be a fair indicator for what will happen with Mears.

He was the 20th ranked driver according the loop data, but 14th in the points standings. This disparity can lead to different conclusions. One is that Ganassi’s equipment is not very good and that Mears maximized his finishes by staying out of trouble. Other stats support his argument. Mears only led 3 laps total, and all were at restrictor plate tracks. This ranks him 42nd among all drivers. Every driver with at least 22 starts had more laps led than Mears. For reference Mears led 104 and 145 laps in the past two seasons. Mears only had 2 DNF’s, further supporting the fact that while he didn’t run great, he took advantage of staying on the track. Obviously the point system rewards avoiding bad finishes. It’s not fully known how well the driver ratings portray success (primarily because there isn’t a published formula). It still appears that Mears outperformed his equipment. Entering next year with a new team poses an interesting question. Was it equipment that was holding back Mears or is he simply a mediocre driver? 2007 should help answer that question.

Last season ended with Mears on the verge of claiming his first NASCAR win at any level. Many predicted Mears would finally break through in 2006. Three races in, things looked true. After a 2nd place at Daytona, Mears finished 7th and 9th at California and Las Vegas respectively. Things dried up after that. He didn’t score another until race 15 at Michigan. He finished with only 2 top 5’s and 8 top 10’s. He did finally get his first NASCAR win, but it came at Chicago in the Busch series.

Although Mears 2006 season didn’t improve on 2005, there were some highlights. He scored a career best 2nd at the Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 7th in the July race. If he wasn’t consistently finishing in the top ten, at least he was finishing races and avoiding trouble. Mears managed to finish in the top 25 in 23 of the first 26 races. It’s not the type of finishes to make the Chase, but can go a long way to a top 15 points finish. With nothing to lose during the Chase, Mears gambled on fuel to finish 2nd at Kansas. He also finished sixth at Martinsville, his first short track top ten.

Now Mears moves to Hendrick Motorsports a team he is familiar with. He is close friends with Jimmie Johnson and was almost hired by Hendrick in 2003 to drive the #5 Busch car. He is certain to get better equipment compared to Ganassi.

Aside from a better ride, it is hard to blame Mears for switching teams. During the 2005 season, Ganassi originally announced plans for four teams with Mears pushed to the new team in favor of two rookies getting established rides. After McMurray’s release was worked out, Mears wound up in the #42 car. Mears’ contract status was also unknown for much of the 2005 season suggesting a tenuous relationship with Ganassi. A move to another team with close personal and professional ties, not to mention better equipment, makes perfect sense for Mears.

Mears gets his third crew chief in as many years. Lance McGrew worked with Brian Vickers for the past two seasons, winning one race. Ironically Mears is a similar storyline to Vickers: A young driver with potential that hasn’t quite put it all together weekly.

Mears is still far from a well-rounded driver. His strength is at 1.5 mile tracks like Las Vegas and Texas, where he has room to run wide open and pass people. His average finish at Vegas is 9.5 with three top 10’s in four races. He averages a 10.5 finish at Texas, including 2 top 5’s. He also is improving at restrictor plate tracks and considering the dominance of Hendrick, this should be a good program for Mears in 2007. The trouble starts when the circuit moves to tighter, challenging tracks like Bristol, Phoenix, Richmond and Darlington. His average finish at the four tracks is 28.7.

On paper switching teams makes sense for Mears. As McMurray proved in 2006, it is not that easy. It is more complex than a driver getting improved equipment. There is team chemistry, differing driving styles and numerous factors that often go unseen to the general public. The only way to have an idea is to look at the results next year and draw conclusions. Mears is good enough to improve on his eight top tens, but it could take some transition time. Maintaining his points standing would be an accomplishment, but realistically he is in for a year of regression.

2007 Driver Previews: Brian Vickers

2007-01-23T22:36:00.000-08:00

Brian Vickers Age: 23
1 win, 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, 14 top 15’s
Avg start: 16.8 Avg Finish: 19.2
Points Standing: 15th Driver Rating: 76.3
#83 Red Bull Toyota Crew Chief: Doug Richert

If Brian Vickers got his fortune told this time last year, it would go something like this:
“After four years driving for Hendrick Motorsports you will leave for a brand new Toyota team. Then you will be banned from team meetings and given the cold shoulder by teammates. On the bright you will finally get your first Cup win. The bad news is it will be one of the most unpopular wins in recent years, coming at the expense of a teammate, plus the most famous driver in the sport. Other than that, it should be a pretty uneventful year. Good Luck.”

That is Vicker’s season in a nutshell. He had a lot of positive things happen, but they were usually overshadowed by a negative consequence. To his credit, Vickers handled things with maturity and tried his best to focus on racing. The biggest story for his season was his announcement he was leaving Hendrick Motorsports. Shortly after he signed with the upstart Team Red Bull.

Vickers' 2006 season was solid but not spectacular. He scored his first win and improved two positions in the points, but it was a very similar season to 2005. He would have some nice runs coupled with several mediocre ones. In fact he didn't have back to back top tens until the 29th and 30th races. As the season progressed his finishes did improve overall. The first 18 races his average finish was 20.9, while his average in the second half was 17.5. It was even better during the Chase when he averaged 14.8, including four top tens. The other improvement forVickers was finishing races. He had a mere 2 DNF's, down from four in 2005, and seven in 2004.

2007 might be the most challenging season yet for Vickers. A brand new Toyota team has lots of questions to answer. One big asset is his crew chief, Doug Richert. Richert helped Greg Biffle won 10 races in the last three years and is highly regarded in the garage. His experience dates back to working on Dale Earnhardt's team in the early 80's. Pairing a veteran crew chief with young driver is a popular and often successful combination in Cup.

Richert's first task is ensuring Vickers makes every race. the good news is Vickers is an excellent qualifier. In 2006 he had 14 top ten starts including one pole at Texas. His career average start is 16.0. With no owners points to start this will be paramount in 2007. Vickers must make the first five races based on time. He shouldn’t have a problem, but things can happen in qualifying. A flat tire, a bobble in a turn or a bad setup could foil the best plans. A missed race will not ruin his season, but would be a setback.

At Hendrick, Vickers was able to gather information and advice from established veterans like Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. His new team will not have that luxury. Vickers teammate is rookie AJ Allmendinger. Making a switch from open-wheel racing to stock cars presents a huge challenge for Allmendinger. That places any expectations for success in 2007 squarely on Vickers.

Vickers' specialty is 2.5 mile tracks. He is an excellent plate racer at both Daytona and Talladega. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and the spring Talladega race. His average finish at Pocono is 8.5, including three top five finishes. Vickers is still refining his skills at short tracks, but he does excel at the 1-mile flat tracks like Phoenix and Loudon.

The move marks a fresh start for Vickers. He took a lot of criticism in his three years in the #25 car. The switch was widely questioned in the media and assumed it was based on money. Surely millions of dollars played a part, but there are plenty of reasons for Vickers to switch teams. Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that Vickers is only 23. He is a talented driver that has dealt with a lot in his young career. He won a Busch Championship before he could legally drink Busch beer. He endured the Hendrick plane crash in 2004. As long as he was at Hendrick he would be fourth priority. A switch to Toyota gives Vickers the chance to be the number one driver and be recognized for his talent instead of a cog in the Hendrick machine. It's a bold move, but at least he has the chance to shine on his own. Now the rest is up to Vickers.

Blogger Alternatives

2007-01-23T15:51:00.000-08:00

For the past two days I have wrangled and struggled to simply access my Blogger account. Sure sometimes I'm unable to post due to writer's block, but often-too often-it's because I can't post. I chose Blogger initially because it was free, and already used Gmail and Writely. I considered switching a few months ago, but then they added some new features like tagging. Laziness, optimism or a mixture of both kept me here. Now I'm fed up. How will my seven devoted readers (not to mention the occasional angry Jeremy Mayfield fan) read my blog, if it is constantly down?

Does anyone have a recommendation for an alternative? Eventually I want to do my own website and then blame myself when it doesn't work. Unfortunately that will take some time, as I'm still learning the nuances of design. In the meantime I hope to give Blogger the boot. I had more to say today, but now my momentum has slowed and I can't simply hit F5 to refresh myself.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Kurt Busch

2007-01-23T14:55:00.000-08:00

Kurt Busch Age: 28
1 win, 7 top 5's, 12 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 10.4 Avg Finish: 19.4
Points Standing: 16th Driver Rating: 86.3
#2 Miller Lite Dodge Crew Chief: Roy McCauley

Everything was new for Kurt Busch in 2006. Moving from Roush to Penske meant new cars,crew, sponsors and also brought new struggles. Aside from a win at Bristol, the season had its fill of disappointments. After making the first two installments of the Chase, Busch did not come close in 2006.

The way Busch qualified in 2006 was from a Folger's commercial: Someone has secretly switched Ryan Newman's qualifying setups with Busch's. Won 6 poles. His career total was three prior to 2006. His 10.4 average starting position was second to Jeff Gordon. The problem wasn't the starts, but rather the finishes. His average finish was a disappointing 19.4.

No matter what Busch tries, he is a lightening rod for controversy and criticism. At Bristol, his winning pass was made by bumping leader and former teammate Matt Kenseth out of the way. It was a legal move, but it wasn't popular with some drivers or fans. Two races later he was involved in a crash with the dominant car of Greg Biffle (another former teammate, ironically). The drivers settled their differences, but their girlfriends did engage in a heated exchange on pit row.

They were two of several forgettable episodes in a forgettable year for the elder Busch. A common theme during his season went like this: Start the race at the front, then suffer problems on pit road costing track position and often leading to mistakes on the track. This happened at Atlanta, the second Bristol race, and both Texas races. Other races he started up front, led laps and then faded late from the wrong adjustments.

Despite the challenges, Busch did make progress during the summer. Starting with a 2nd at Pocono, Busch scored six top tens (including 4 top fives) in seven races. He still had an outside chance of cracking the top ten heading to Watkins Glen. After sitting on the pole, Busch led 38 laps and appeared to have the dominant car. Late in the race he entered the pits just as the caution came out. He mistimed the stop by mere seconds, resulting in a penalty that sent him to the rear of the field. He finished 19th, but it ended any real possiblity to make the Chase. The rest of the season was very uneven. He would score a top five finish one week and then slog his way to a 25th place finish the following week.

Busch's results were the worst since his rookie season. The past four years Busch averaged 3.5 wins, 10 top fives and 18.25 top tens. He led 15 races but only 272 laps. A season of transition was expected, but not to such extents. Looking from the outside, it appeared Busch was inheriting Rusty Wallace's car that made the 2005 Chase. In truth, Busch had very few holdover crew members. Roy McCauley replaced Larry Carter as crew chief.

To put Busch in a bigger hole, the Penske organization made some poor decisions that hurt the performance of both cars in 2006. During the offseason the #77 program was ended, reducing Penske to two full time teams. It also reduced the amount of information collected and limited the different options for testing. The decision didn't appear based on sponsorship either; Penske has an abundance of sponsors.

The immediate performance was most influenced however by the decision to run the Dodge Intrepid during the first part of the season. After Dodge ended this option after seven races, Penske had to play catch up on the unreliable Charger. The self-inflicted wounds cost Busch and Ryan Newman any realistic chance to make the Chase.

No matter how hard Busch tries, he remains unpopular with fans. Lost in the silly things he does is the fact that he is one of the elite drivers on the Cup circuit. Given a good car he is capable of winning at any type of track. Penske's short track program is always strong and Busch might be the top driver at Bristol. He has five career wins at the Tennessee short track. He also is very strong at Pocono. He finished 2nd at both races there in 2006 and won the July race in 2005. California, Talladega, Loudon and Phoenix are also places where Busch is on the shortlist of top drivers.

In his second year with Penske and McCauley, Busch should expect improved consistency, especially in the pits. If that happens he is a favorite to make the Chase, especially with two additional spots available. Busch always runs the risk of losing his temper at the wrong time. If Penske's equipment is still lacking, Busch won't have the luxury to turn a poor car into a wrecked car too often. The speedway program remains the largest unknown, but Busch is good enough at every other track to compensate. Two to three wins and a Chase berth is manageable.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Clint Bowyer

2007-01-19T11:18:00.000-08:00

Clint Bowyer Age: 26
0 wins, 4 top 5's, 11 top 10's, 16 top 15's
Avg start: 20.3 Avg finish 19.7
Points Standing: 17th Driver Rating: 74.9
#07 Jack Daniels Chevy Crew Chief: Gil Martin

Bowyer wins the mythical award for Most Surprising Rookie. Sure Denny Hamlin won races and made the Chase, but nothing was expected out of Bowyer. He stayed out of trouble most of the year and steadily improved his finishes. Entering 2007 he is suddenly a legitmate Chase candidate. It is a pretty sharp ascent for Bowyer, who had one Cup race prior to 2006.

Bowyer benefitted from excellent timing. He entered the #07 ride at a time when RCR returned to elite status at the Cup level. The three Childress cars combined for 1 win and only six top fives in 2005. After drastic improvements in every department, RCR cars scored 6 wins and 26 top five finishes in 2006. Bowyer made the most of the tools at his disposal. He began the season with a top ten at Daytona, followed by two top fifteen finishes at California and Las Vegas. His first big breakthrough came at Phoenix. He led 21 laps before finishing 5th. Teammate Kevin Harvick won the race and Jeff Burton finished ninth. It was the first sign that RCR's short track and 1 mile speedway program was one of the best. This strong program was reinforced by Bowyer's 10th at Richmond and later led 23 laps at Loudon before a disappointing 27th result.

RCR's progress spilled over to the intermediate tracks where Bowyer was most comfortable. He scored top five finishes at Indy, California and Texas. He also led 43 laps at his home track Kansas speedway. He hit the wall while leading and spent the rest of the day regaining the lost ground finishing 9th. Bowyer is definitely a threat to win a speedway race in 2007.

The season was not always smooth or easy. Had a good run at Pocono but was spun out by Tony Stewart. A furious Bowyer waited for Stewart in the pits, but nothing else happened. Stewart claimed the rookie was holding him up, so he moved him. Stewart was penalized a lap, but wound up finishing 7th. Bowyer wound up 41st. When he wasn't getting "taught" lessons by veterans, Bowyer did a nice job of earning respect. He scored top tens at both Daytona races, a place where rookies don't always get support in the draft. He led laps at 8 races and ran in the top ten at several others. The more time spent at the front of the pack, the sooner veterans get accustomed to rookies.

Aside from great equipment, RCR had several factors in place to help Bowyer's transition to Cup. His crew chief Gil Martin moved with Bowyer from the Busch series. Martin had been a Cup crew chief for RCR prior to his role with Bowyer. For a rookie driver, this is a big plus to have an experienced crew chief making the right adjustments and knowing what works. The other big help was Bowyer's two veteran teammates. Harvick and Burton both have great insight and experience in the series. Having a veteran sounding board is a big part of figuring out how to drive at NASCAR's highest level.

To get Bowyer additional seat time, RCR also ran a full Busch sechedule plus select truck races. He won the fall race at Dover. If not for Harvick, Bowyer certainly could have won more Busch races. He did score 12 top fives and 17 top tens to finish 3rd in points. He also won the fall truck raceat Texas after sitting on the pole. The only thing missing now is a Cup win to add to his resume.

So what will happen to the #07 in '07? The biggest project is the Car of Tomorrow. RCR is spending a lot of time and money to maintain their edge, and the CofT is no exception. This could propel all three RCR cars even further beyond the competition. Some team is going to have a large advantage on the CofT tracks, and it's very possible RCR becomes that team.The intermediate program should be strong again, meaning Bowyer is a good candidate to pick up a win at one of the tracks. The most likely places are California, Texas or Kansas. He is also very solid at Dover. Bowyer can afford improvement at road courses.For some reason Michigan has also been a weak spot for Bowyer. He has never scored a top ten in Cup or Busch.

The biggest thing for Bowyer is improving his consistency. He has strong equipment and a good crew chief in Martin. If Boywer can turn some of the top fifteens into top tens, he can definitely improve his 18th place standing. A top ten spot is a big jump. Winning a race is the first hurdle. Real hardware is surely preferred to winning mythical Most Surprising awards.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Ryan Newman

2007-01-18T10:02:00.000-08:00

Ryan Newman Age: 29
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 7 top 10's, 15 top 15's
Avg Start: 11.6 Avg Finish: 20.6
Points Rank: 18th Driver Rating: 76.3
#12 Alltel Dodge Crew Chief: Michael Nelson

2006 began with optimism for Ryan Newman. He finished 3rd in the Daytona 500, his best restrictor plate finish ever. Then Penske dusted off the Dodge Intrepid for the next three races. The initial plan was to run the Intrepid at the intermediate speedway tracks the entire season. Dodge mandated all teams to run the Charger after the seventh race of the season. That set Penske's plans back, something they didn't fully recover from in 2006. Ryan Newman didn't have a pole or a top ten finish on 1.5 or 2 mile tracks. He suffered career lows in every category. By his standards, the 18th place points finish was unthinkable.

Newman had a decent summer, scoring seven top fifteens in eight races through Daytona. Things began to really sour in July. After winning his second pole of the season at Loudon, Newman was involved in a crash with Tony Stewart. Stewart was leading the race while Newman had just pitted for fresh tires. Newman was trying to pass Stewart and regain a lap, but neither let off. The result was both crashed, ruining the race for both drivers. He scored only two more top tens the rest of the season (Watkins Glen, Bristol). He had zero during the Chase.

It was also during the Chase that Newman got a new crew chief. Matt Borland took a personal leave of absence. The leave became permanent after the season when Borland moved to Michael Waltrip Racing to work with Dale Jarrett. Borland had worked with Newman since his days in the Busch series. They both emphasized the engineering tack when working on the cars. It's hard to speculate why Borland left, but things were obviously stagnant in 2006. Michael Nelson assumes the crew chief position on the #12 team.

As spotty as the intermediate program was, Penske's other areas were quite strong. The restrictor plate program improved significantly in 2006 and the road course package was arguably the top in Cup. To help on the aero-sensitive tracks, Dodge teams will have a new nose for the Charger. This is intended to reduce the debris collected on the grille. This has caused overheating issues in the past. The new nose will also make the car more neutral to changes, a major complaint and one of the reasons why Penske tried to use the less finicky Intrepid.

Many of the question marks about Newman's season rest on the management and direction at Penske. Can Penske improve or continue to stumble over themselves? In an era when every team is expanding to three and four cars, Penske contracted from three to two cars for 2006. While other teams and manufacturers emphasized sharing information, Penske tended to shy from this practice. Newman's team never talked to Rusty Wallace's. Penske insisted on perfecting the Dodge Intrepid (with terrible results) instead of aligning with the other Dodge teams to improve the Charger.

Despite his desire to outsmart other teams, Newman is a fantastically talented driver. He can handle any type of track. He is always a threat to win at Loudon or Dover and can also scored two top tens at road courses. He was even stout at restrictor plate tracks, far from his favorite race. Newman also has a penchant for crashing. He had 15 in 2006 and over the last four years he has averaged 11.25 per season. One way to reduce the chances for a crash are running closer to the front of the pack. The drivers are typically more patient and are obviously the more skilled drivers.

After a chilly relationship with former teammate Wallace, Newman and Kurt Busch appear to share information more freely. With only two teams this is vital. It's hard to predict much improvement for Newman in 2007. His strongest tracks in '06 will now feature the Car of Tomorrow. Penske has not always adapted well to changes and this could happen in 2007. Newman will still compete for wins at Dover and the road courses, but it's hard to imagine a return to the consistency he enjoyed in 2003 and 2004.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Martin Truex Jr

2007-01-17T11:11:00.000-08:00

Martin Truex Jr Age: 26
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 5 top 10's, 11 top 15's
Avg start: 21.2 Avg finish: 20.8
Points standing: 19 Driver Rating: 71.3
#1 Bass Pro Shops Chevy Crew Chief: Kevin Manion

A year ago Martin Truex Jr was the favorite for Rookie of the Year. Some writers went as far as predicting he'd make the Chase. After two straight Busch championships, the predictions made sense. After running seven Cup races in 2005, Truex was more than ready for full time Cup action. A funny thing happened, Truex had a typical rookie season filled with mistakes, run-ins with veterans, and crashes mixed in with some good runs.

Truex spent the first half of the season running between 15^th and 20^th. He had one top ten in the first 18 races. He had several nice runs, some with deserving finishes (8^th at Texas) and some not (finished 22^nd at Phoenix after running out of fuel). One of his toughest days came at the spring Bristol race. Fighting to get a lap back, he was spun by Jeff Gordon. After some minor repairs, he returned to the track in search of Gordon. After trading paint with Gordon, Tony Stewart dumpedTruex for holding up the lead-lap cars. His day was done and a lesson was painfully learned.

One of the highlights of his season came in the Busch series. In April he won the Busch race at Talladega in a Dale Earnhardt Sr. paint scheme. It was also his third straight Busch win at Talladega. Unfortunately he was caught in an early crash in the Cup race, proving again that momentum doesn't really exist race to race. The following week he lost an engine, his thirdDNF in five races.

Aside from bad luck and crashes, one of the biggest challenges for the #1 team was a lack of experience. Crew Chief Kevin "Bono" Manion was with Truex for the last two years in Busch, but had never been a crew chief at the Cup level. It took the team almost the entire first half of the season to accumulate enough notes to figure out fast setups.DEI has one of the top Busch programs, but is middle of the pack at the Cup level. This also makes for a tougher transition when the equipment is not elite. While they waited for the cars to get more speed,Truex still managed to finish races. From Darlington to the second California race, Truex completed 99% of the laps.

The second half of was a big improvement. The overall results didn't show immediately, but Truex and Manion started figuring out some tracks the second time around. The speed finally improved during the Chase. Truex scored a sixth at Dover, an 11th at Kansas and a 5th at Talladega. He ran inside the top 10 the whole day at Atlanta before a crash with 19 laps to go. The following week Truex was running fifth with two laps to go when Scott Riggs crashed and Truex was caught in it. He wound up 11th. Truex's finest race was the finale at Homestead. He finished second, led 27 laps and had a driver rating of 111.4.

The final ten races showed what everyone expected from Truex. With his late season success, he finished 19th in the standings. Overall it was a solid debut while also showing a glimpse of what Truex can do with good cars. Good cars will be the key in 2007. Truex and Manion have good chemistry and now have experience to build on when adjusting the car. It's up to DEI to continue to produce, and improve their engines and chassis. Paul Menard will drive a third full time car. That could pull personnel and resources away from the #1 team. Menard will have to qualify for at least the first five races, meaning extra attention will be given to his cars and engines. There is also the issue ofDEI's foggy management picture.

One of Truex's strengths is taking care of equipment. Although he had 5 DNF's, he was second among rookies with 21 lead lap finishes. One thing Truex must control is his emotions. The Bristol incident illustrated how aggressive Truex can get. He had a similar run-in at a Richmond Busch race in 2005. Every driver has days of struggle and frustration, but losing control is an easy way to turn a 21st finish into a 41st.

DEI's strength in 2006 was their intermediate program, although Truex is capable of running well at almost any track. He is strong at plate tracks and should get more help this season in the draft. He is also strong at Dover, where he won twice in the Busch series and scored a 6th in Cup. He won the Mexico City Busch road race in 2005, and has also run well at short tracks like Bristol and Richmond. Although his driving style is similar to teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr, he is a superior qualifier. A pole win is a real possibility next season.

As long as Truex gets the proper support he has the talent to run up front. Making the Chase is a long shot this season, but Truex should improve his finishes in year 2. A top 15 points finish along with 5 top fives and 10-15 top tens is the likely forecast forTruex. A win is not likely, but not out of the question either. Maybe the best news is that expectations for Truex are returning to previous heights.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Scott Riggs

2007-01-15T08:34:00.000-08:00

Scott Riggs Age: 36
0 wins, 1 top 5, 8 top 10’s, 13 top 15’s
Avg start: 19.5 Avg finish: 20.3
Points Standing: 20th Driver Rating: 71.2
#10 Valvoline Dodge Crew Chief: Rodney Childers

After two mediocre seasons at the Cup level, Scott Riggs finally broke out in his third year. An offseason move to Evernham motorsports made a big difference in Riggs' ability to consistently run up front. After six top tens in his first two years combined, Riggs scored eight in 2006 and he could have had several more. After a sour beginning, the year turned out pretty sweet. If there was an award for Breakthrough Driver, Riggs was deserving.

It seems like ancient history, but Riggs began the year by not qualifying for the Daytona 500. A mechanical issue ruined his qualifying run. Then in the Twin 150 race, his fate was sealed by a mistake during a pit stop. The brand new team missed the biggest race of the season. Not only that, but they were in an immediate hole for entering the top 35 in owners points. Fortunately it was the only race Riggs missed. After a 19th at California, a 28th at Las Vegas and an 11th at Atlanta, Riggs was safely inside the magical top 35.

Riggs had some solid runs in the spring, especially a 10th at Martinsville, 7th at Texas and a 9th at Talladega. His emergence was fully realized, however at the Coca-Cola 600 at Lowe's Motorspeedway. He won the pole and at times was the dominant car. He led 90 laps, second only to teammate Kasey Kahne's 158. He was leading entering the final pit stop, but a penalty on the stop coughed up his lead. He finished 13th, but it was the strongest sign yet that Riggs was capable of running at the front. The race also marked the first of 14 straight finishes on the lead lap. The span alson included another four top tens (Pocono, Loudon, Bristol, Richmond). After Richmond Riggs sat in 18th place in the standings, the high mark of the season. Unfortunately, the Chase caused his results to balloon. After avoiding problems and poor finishes most of the season, he had five finishes of 30th during the final ten races. He had great runs at Dover, Kansas and Texas spoiled by crashes. Despite the late struggles, he won his second pole of 2006 at the fall Charlotte race and capped the season with a seventh place finish at Homestead.

One of the wildest events of Riggs' season took place after the fall race at Texas. While running in the top five, Riggs lost control, got a slight bump from Kevin Harvick and crashed very hard into the outside wall. Not only did this ruin another possible top five, it also created controversy after the race. One of Riggs' crew members confronted Harvick and ultimately shoving Harvick. The crew member, Craig Curione, was suspended by NASCAR for the final two races of the season. Riggs had nothing to do with the incident, but it still gathered negative attention for the team.

The move to Evernham was a boon. Not only did he have better equipment than at MB/2, but he had something else valuable. His driving style was similar to Kahne's, meaning both teams could share information. Kahne won six races, all on speedways, in 2006 and not coincidentally Riggs also was very strong at the intermediate speedways. One factor that helped the transition was crew chief Rodney Childers moved with Riggs from MB/2.

In addition to his two poles, he also had seven top ten starts. His average start was 19.5. The other big improvement was his ability to stay on the track. He had 9 and 7 DNF's in his first two seasons. In 2006 he had a mere two. He had a total of 24 lead lap finishes, proving he wasn't simply turning laps.

Heading into 2007, Riggs has a real shot at winning a race. His intermediate cars have plenty of speed. Riggs just needs a little more consistency from himself and his crew to finish the job. He should be strong at Charlotte, Texas and Michigan. He also scored three top tens at the short tracks. This speaks to his maturity as a driver. He is crashing less, finding more speed and finishing races. It's a pretty simple formula, but not always easy to execute. Riggs should continue to work well with Kahne as well as newer teammate Elliott Sadler.

Although Evernham Motorsports has made great strides for Dodge, the cars still tend to be inconsistent. All three cars will run well one week and then struggle at a different track the next. It's important to improve the other aspects of the team like engine reliability, 1-mile and restrictor plates. Riggs proved he can drive when he has good equipment. The next is transforming lead lap finishes into top tens and top fives. If Riggs can consistently do that, he can win a race. Another top 20 finish is very possible, but with increased competition for every spot he isn't ready to threaten for the Chase.

Who has the best Engine Programs?

2007-01-12T08:10:00.000-08:00

Engines are the biggest single expense on a car. They are also essential for finishing a race. It sounds simple, but think about it. Teams can recover from almost any problem during a race: a flat tire, a crash, a dead battery, even a bad transmission is still not the end of the race. If your engine is done, so is your day.

Horsepower is a big requirement for a good engine, but reliability is even more important. The teams that figure out the formula to maximize both parts have a huge advantage. Certain teams have reputations for stronger engine programs than others, but which ones are truly the best? Since I don’t have a dynometer, or access to the NASCAR garage, I thought the best way to gauge the engine programs was engine failures.

I took the number of DNF’s due to engine failures as noted by Racing Reference. This means that if an engine was headed south, but didn’t expire before the end of the race it wasn’t counted, because it’s impossible to judge that. The quick and dirty answer is counting the number of failures divided by the number of total races. This includes full and part-time teams plus teams that purchase engines from other teams (Ginn, Haas, Petty, etc).

Penske/Jasper engines did not have a failure in 2007, although they only ran 72 total races. Although Penske only won one race, they did score eight poles, which does testify to the horsepower available. Penske’s lack of wins is related to other issues with the cars, but at least the engines appear in good shape. Joe Gibbs Racing supplied engines for four full-time teams and had two failures all year. Two failures in 144 races works out to a 1.4% failure rate. That’s pretty impressive over that many races. Gibbs is one of the premier organizations, and the engine program proves that.

Five other teams (Hendrick, Ganassi/Elliott, Bill Davis, Childress and Yates/Roush) all had a failure rate between 2.6 and 3.0%. For Hendrick and Yates/Roush that is pretty impressive considering the number of teams they each support. Each organization supplied engines for over 300 races in 2006 and both had less than 10 failures. The two other companies with their own engine programs are Evernham (5.6%) and DEI (6.1%). Evernham won six races and eight poles, all on speedways, in 2006. The power is evident, but they have less reliability. At first glance, these two organizations are lacking compared to others.

Digging deeper reveals some interesting numbers. Several organizations lease out engines to smaller teams. Theoretically any team that purchases engines will get the same specs and product as the in-house teams. It’s hard to know for sure what differences there are, but the failure rates almost always increase for teams buying their engines at retail.

The largest engine supplier is Hendrick Motorsports, who support three other full-time teams at Ginn Racing and Haas CNC. They also supplied engines for Michael Waltrip Racing’s five test races. In total, teams ran 115 races with Hendrick retail engines. There were only three failures or a 2.6% rate. That falls directly in line with their overall rate and the in-house failure rate (5 failures in 190 races). Evernham and DEI take much better car of their in-house teams. Evernham’s in-house failure rate was 4.6%, but it jumps to 6.9% for third-party teams. Iin 36 fewer races Petty Enterprises suffered the same number of failures as Evernham’s three full-time teams. DEI’s gap is even larger. They had three failures from their in-house teams, including one from part-time Paul Menard, good for a 3.8% failure rate. Robby Gordon leased DEI power and had three failures himself. That’s an unacceptable 8.3%. Again, it’s difficult to know the exact reasons for failures. It’s still no surprise that Gordon will switch to Ford in 2007, and the engine factor certainly weighed in his decision.

There are so many parts and variables in play for any engine’s performance. It’s a constant struggle to balance maximum horsepower with reliability. Evernham produces great horsepower at the cost of some reliability. Bill Davis and Ganassi showed great reliability, but not necessarily the same strength of other teams. Next year might be totally different. Bill Davis Racing switches to Toyota. It’s very possible they experience greater horsepower with flakier results. All three Toyota outfits are likely to have inconsistent engine programs in year one. Other teams fluctuate from year to year. Look at Childress Racing. Their entire program improved in 2006 while other teams declined. It’s no different for engine departments.

The top 35 will affect everything in 2007. This is especially true for team's engine programs. A blown engine in the first five races will put a driver in a big points hole. All the time spent in the offseason at the wind tunnel, pit crew practice or preseason testing can go down the drain if an engine fails. For a team hovering around the 35th place, this could prove fatal.

Tweaking the Chase or Tweaking off Fans?

2007-01-11T09:47:00.000-08:00

One of the big changes expected this year is modifications to the Chase. One is a tweaking of the point system. That is a large task, and is a lot to chew on (I’ll try to break it down in another entry). The other expected change is opening up the Chase field to more drivers. The current limit of ten drivers will apparently rise to at least 12. That means that over quarter of the field is eligible for the Chase. Under the current model NASCAR’s playoff is the most elite of the professional sports with a playoff. Of the major sports, which NASCAR considers itself, only NCAA men’s basketball has a smaller percentage of teams make its playoff, and that is only because Division 1 basketball has 334 teams.

NCAA Football 64 of 117=54.7%
NBA 16 of 30=53.3%
NHL 16 of 30=53.3%
NFL 12 of 32=37.5%
MLB 8 of 30=26.6%
NASCAR 10 of 43=23.2%
NCAA D1 Basketball 65 of 334=19.4%

It’s basic economics: the fewer spots available the more prestigious each spot is. Increasing the number of drivers also increases the chances of an undeserving team walking away with the title. Jeff Gordon won three of the first nine races in 2005. After that he was wildly inconsistent during the summer. He did not make the Chase and didn’t deserve to. If the field is widened, Gordon makes it in, along with Elliott Sadler who had 0 wins, and 1 top five after Richmond. That’s a very diluted field. What happens if Gordon got hot and scored the most points in the last ten races? The 26-race “regular season” should count for something too.

The current ten-driver ceiling also allows for any driver within 400 points of the leader. If a driver is that close to the top teams, he deserves to make the Chase. In three years that has not happened. That is pretty good evidence that ten drivers (or less) is a natural limit.

The motive for expanding the playoffs is granting more exposure to more sponsors. Sponsors of cars that miss the Chase probably do not get the return on their investment that the top cars do. It’s a valid point, but Chase or not, the top cars will always get more attention. They shouldn’t have the power to dictate how a championship is decided.

Instead of appeasing the sponsors with more Chase slots, how about NASCAR pressuring the TV networks to make the coverage less Chase heavy? If Jimmie Johnson is currently running 22nd and a non-Chase driver is leading the race, show the leader. If Matt Kenseth struggles all day, it is not a story that needs constant coverage. Take that camera and focus it on Dave Blaney running fifth.

There are plenty of ways to get exposure during the Chase. Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle garnered attention by winning races. Brian Vickers captured the spotlight by wrecking the most popular driver plus his teammate. And he won a Chase race. Not everyone can make the Chase or win races. Michael Waltrip crashed early, ensuring an interview to drop sponsors’ names.

This move also poses the risk to non-Chase races. Races like Bristol, California and Richmond have added importance as the final races before the Chase. With more teams assured spots, there is less drama. This past season at Richmond Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart and Mark Martin all dangled off the edge of a cliff. One was guaranteed to fall. With the new system none of the three would really sweat as long as they finished the race.

Maybe the biggest problem I have with changes to the Chase is the timing. The Chase was only implemented three seasons ago. Constant tweaking will only do harm. Some years the Chase will be great (2004), some years the best driver will dominate (2005) and some years it will be dull (2006). It happens in all sports, but NASCAR is the only one that seems too impatient to let things solidify. If the sport’s leaders can’t sit still, how can they expect fans to?

It's reaching crunch time for the driver previews. I'm down to the top 20 drivers plus some of the top rookies. I hope you've enjoyed them as much as I have. I will continue with the previews again on Monday. There are so many other things to cover I needed a quick break. With real NASCAR news begins cropping up again (ie something other than family feuds and drivers falling off golf carts.) there are a few things to say.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Bobby Labonte

2007-01-10T11:08:00.000-08:00

Bobby Labonte Age: 42
0 wins, 3 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s, 12 top 15’s
Avg Start: 21.6 Avg Finish: 22.0
Points: 21st Driver Rating: 67.9
#43 Cheerios Dodge Crew Chief: Paul Andrews

Despite 15 years of Cup experience everything was new for Bobby Labonte in 2006. After ten seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing, Labonte got a fresh start with Petty Enterprises. He was one of several notable additions for PE in 2006. Champion crew chief Todd Parrott signed on as Labonte’s crew chief and Robbie Loomis rejoined Petty as General Manager. The moves gave the organization renewed credibility and also raised expectations for the season.

Petty Enterprises hadn’t been competitive for years. John Andretti was the last driver to score a top five back in 2001. Since that time, the company had a total of seven top tens. With a former Winston Cup winner, plus adding two Cup winning crew chiefs gave hope for drastic improvement.

For Labonte it was a chance to reenergize his career. Things weren’t bad at Gibbs, but it had grown stagnant. Petty offered a chance to contribute more than simply driving, but to help rebuild the most famous car in NASCAR.

Everyone at Petty warned that progress would be slow. It was still hard to not notice the immediate change. Labonte started 8th at the Daytona 500 and ran well until a crash with three laps left ruined his run. Then he started 4th at Atlanta and led 13 laps before his engine blew. The breakthrough finally came the next week at Bristol. Labonte deftly avoided trouble and finished 5th. He added top tens at Texas and Phoenix in the next few weeks.

Three top tens in the first eight races. It was the same number of top tens that Kyle Petty and Jeff Green combined for in 72 races in 2005. Even with swift success, it was hard to maintain the whole season. Labonte had more strong runs, but didn’t get another top ten until the July Pocono race.

In the middle of the season, Parrott announced he was leaving Petty to return to Yates Racing. It was a setback for Labonte’s team but it wouldn’t last long. Prior to the Chase, Kyle Petty hired Billy Wilburn to head the #45 team. This moved Paul Andrews to Labonte’s car. Andrews won a championship in 1992 with Alan Kulwicki.

Labonte and Andrews clicked during the Chase. In their second race together Labonte finished 7th at Dover. This began a very solid eight race stretch where Labonte’s average finish was 12.15 including two top 5’s and four top 10’s. The season ended with a crash at Homestead, his eighth DNF of the season. It was still one of the most successful seasons in the last decade for PE.

As impressive as Labonte was in his first season with Petty, the results could have been better. He suffered 8 DNF’s, including 3 engine failures. He also had a variety of bad luck ruin other runs. Crashes twice spoiled good finishes at Daytona. A bad transmission spoiled a top ten effort at Martinsville. Labonte also ran well at Richmond until his crew accidentally put the wrong sided tires on, wreaking havoc on the handling.

Team preparation is a large part of Cup racing and must be improved next year. On a team desperate for strong finishes they can’t afford these mental mistakes. Unfortunately they have less control over the engines. Leasing from Evernham guarantees good horsepower, but reliability has been an issue. Labonte lost three engines and Petty lost two during the season.

The progress of the #43 car was certainly the highlight of the season and brings greater optimism for 2007. There are still major obstacles for PE to remain competitive. Kyle Petty struggled with sponsorship last year and barely retained his spot in the top 35. Toyota’s introduction to Cup also brings additional big-budget teams that will raise the cost of competition.

Petty Enterprises made great strides in 2006, but they will have a large task in 2007. With the Car of Tomorrow arriving, will the team have enough personnel to cover both projects? It might be too large a task to hope for improvement. Maintaining their current status, especially in regards to the top 35 is very important. If the #45 falls outside the top 35 and begins missing races, that will also have a severe impact on Labonte’s team.

Labonte showed he can still drive in 2006. He is a legitimate threat to win at Martinsville and also excels at tracks like Atlanta, Pocono and Charlotte. Petty Enterprises hasn’t won a race since 1999. It is a long shot for Labonte to win a race in 2007, but more top fives and top tens would be a big success. A realistic goal is a top 20 finish in the points. It would mark the first time a Petty car finished in the top 20 since Andretti finished 17th in 1999.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Elliott Sadler

2007-01-09T13:40:00.000-08:00

Elliott Sadler Age: 31
0 wins, 1 top 5, 7 top 10’s, 11 top 15’s
Avg start: 17.5 Avg finish: 23.1
Points: 22nd Driver Rating: 69.2
#19 Dodge Dealers/UAW Dodge Crew Chief: Josh Browne

Things happen quickly at the Cup level in NASCAR. For evidence look at the last year and a half for Elliott Sadler.
After making the Chase and winning two races in 2004, Sadler spent the first half of 2005 inside the top 10. Then he went without a top ten finish for ten races, dropping him from Chase contention. The aero issues, prominent in 2006, began surfacing in 2005. Further, Sadler’s crew chief Todd Parrott was moved to Dale Jarrett’s car for the final ten races, before Parrott moved to Petty Enterprises. This planted a seed of frustration for Sadler.

One year ago Sadler won his qualifying heat at Daytona and finished fourth in the Daytona 500. It was a nice start to a season that soured quickly. It was evident that Robert Yates Racing had fallen behind on the intermediate tracks that comprise the bulk of the schedule. Sadler and Dale Jarrett could compete at Daytona and Talladega along with the short tracks, but once the tour visited Texas or Charlotte they were back markers. In 22 races with Yates Sadler didn’t have a top ten at an intermediate track. The frustration had grown for not only Sadler but teammate and close friend Dale Jarrett. When Jarrett announced plans in May to leave Robert Yates Racing after 2006 for Toyota, Sadler also began researching his options with other teams.

After three and a half seasons at Robert Yates, Elliott Sadler moved to Evernham Motorsports in August. He left on a good note, finishing 7th at Watkins Glen in his final race for Yates. He also was reluctant to publicly discuss his parting, instead trying to make the spilt as amicable as possible.

Things began well in the #19 car too. Sadler started 2nd and finished 10th in his first race at Michigan. The strong car was reportedly due to Evernham’s personal battle with the departed Jeremy Mayfield. Whatever the case, it was still the first top ten for the #19 team. More importantly the finish returned the team to the top 35 in owner’s points.

The finishes didn’t necessarily show improvement, but Sadler’s driver ratings in the first six races averaged 83.8, with a high of 95.1 at Dover. It’s not numbers to get excited about, but much steadier than the car had run prior to Sadler. As the year progressed, the team switched to testing mode and the results suffered. He didn't score a top ten in the final eight races.

Sadler joined a team that had a brand new crew in 2006. The end of the year was spent getting Sadler on the same page as Browne and the team. It is hard to gauge the team’s progress based solely on the results. What, and how much, the team learned at the end of 2006 should show up in the first four races in 2007.

Both Sadler and Dale Jarrett felt the largest need at Yates was more engineering support. Now that both have moved to new teams, it’s interesting that each of their new crew chiefs have engineering backgrounds. How Sadler and team director Josh Browne communicate will be a huge part of any success in 2007.

In good equipment Sadler is a proven front runner. He has won at Bristol, California and Texas, but is also strong at Martinsville and restrictor plate tracks Daytona and Talladega. He has also had several strong runs at Dover, leading 186 laps, although his finishes haven’t always justified the good runs. Evernham’s intermediate program was one of the best in 2006, winning 6 races and 8 poles at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks. With a full season, Sadler should resume running up front at the aero-sensitive speedways. Sadler has also developed into a very good qualifier with seven career poles.

Sadler made the Chase in 2004 and spent the first half of 2005 in the top 10, based on patiently finishing races. A monumental swoon in the summer cost him a second Chase berth and Sadler is yet to regain that consistency. His first step is finishing races. He had 3 combined DNF’s in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he suffered 7.

A new team with a different approach is exactly what Sadler was looking for. Now that he has his wish, it is up to him to get the results. Evernham is an improving organization but there are still weaknesses. Sadler is a proven driver that could surprise in 2007. A win is possible, but not expected. A realistic goal is 3-4 top 5’s and 10-15 top ten finishes. He has an outside chance at making the Chase, but realistically will probably need another year for his team to jell.

A quick thought

2007-01-09T10:07:00.000-08:00

I started working on today's preview yesterday. And then again last night and today. I'll get it done later today at some point if Blogger cooperates. The main reason I haven't finished today's post is becuase I've been sick since Saturday. It's not an excuse, but it got me thinking about athletes, and especially drivers that get sick on gameday or raceday.

During the Texas race the announcers made a big deal about how Dale Earnhardt Jr was sick, but still finished 6th. And every beat writer seemed to pick up on the theme after the race too. At the time I thought it wasn't a big deal. Sure he was sick, but it's his job. I'm rethinking that stance today. Many writers still made too big of a deal about the effort. At the same time I can't imagine driving a 500 mile race at Texas in my current state. It was hard enough for me to wake up and drive 20 minutes (at 60mph) to work with my headache, cough and associated features of a cold. Picturing a driver with like symptoms or worse having to strap in for three hours and 500 miles and enduring a loud, bumpy ride with high-banked turns inducing great G-forces all while having to concentrate on going as fast as possible without hitting anything is pretty amazing. This isn't just a salute to Junior, Tony Stewart won at Watkins Glen in 2004 while sick. Plenty of drivers have been sick during races, many that the public never hears about. It's impressive is all I'm saying.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dale Jarrett

2007-01-07T22:33:00.000-08:00

Dale Jarrett Age: 50
0 wins, 1 top 5, 4 top 10's, 10 top 15's
Avg start: 28.2, Avg Finish: 22.7
Points rank: 23^rd Driver Rating: 57.5
#44 UPS Toyota Crew Chief: Matt Borland

2006 did not go the way anyone at Robert Yates Racing had hoped. For Dale Jarrett it was a season of struggles and transition but also hope. Jarrett's on-track performance was one of the worst seasons of his 22 year career. Four top tens was the lowest season total since 1989. He scored at least seven per year from 1990-2005. He went winless for the second season in three years. Things were rough on the track, but Jarrett does have a fresh start to look forward to in 2007.

After 12 years with Robert Yates Racing Jarrett will drive for Michael Waltrip Racing, helping to introduce Toyota to the Cup stage. This presents a new challenge for the 50 year old Jarrett. It's a new manufacturer, new organization, a new crew chief (again) and maybe a new perspective for Jarrett. While that is a lot of changes, Jarrett will keep UPS as sponsor. Keeping his same sponsor since 2001 guarantees the popular, “He's going to drive the truck” ad campaign will continue.

On the track the numbers spelled struggle for Yates and Jarrett. His season driver rating was 57.5, 29th among full time drivers. A fourth at Kansas was his only top five of the season. Even that was more the result of fuel mileage than a great run in a strong car. On the other hand he finished 23^rd in the point standings. This means he didn't run well, but avoided trouble and finished races higher than he deserved. Some of this slump is attributed to Jarrett, much of the problems fell on the Yates team. They trailed the other powerhouse teams on every track except Daytona and Talladega.

The season was especially rough for Robert and Doug Yates. Coinciding with Jarrett's announced exit, Crew chief Slugger Labbe was also suspended four races for a sway bar infraction at Richmond. He was later released from Yates, along with fellow crew chief Tommy Baldwin and General Manager Eddie D'Hondt. Yates' other driver Elliott Sadler also left mid season for Evernham motorsports. 2006 was also the first season in his 18 years that Robert Yates didn't score a victory.

Jarrett did enjoy some highlights among the frustration. He started things off with a tenth place finish at Daytona and followed that with a ninth at Atlanta three races later. The weekend of the Darlington race in May, Jarrett announced he would drive for Waltrip in 2007. He finished 21^st or better in the first ten races, including two top tens and four top fifteens. After the announcement, Jarrett's performance sunk. Except for a 20^th at Michigan, he didn't finish better than 22^nd for the next 13 races. He did finish strong with six top fifteen finishes in the final 12 races. It wasn't a dream ending for his Yates tenure, but he didn't mail it in either.

Heading to 2007 there are two big questions to ask. Can Jarrett still get up on the wheel or will he enjoy his golden parachute? Can Waltrip Racing provide consistent cars for Jarrett?

Crew chief Matt Borland left Ryan Newman's team at Penske to join Toyota and Jarrett. Jarrett's biggest complaint at RYR was the lack of engineers. Borland might place the greatest emphasis on engineering of any crew chief on tour. This is often a good trait, but last year it didn't serve Newman and and Borland well. They wasted the beginning of the season and presumably the offseason on perfecting the 2004 Dodge Intrepid. Borland will be Jarrett's sixth crew chief in three seasons. The addition of Borland and his fresh perspective should help reignite Jarrett.

He is assured a place in the field thanks to his Champion's provisional. He and Dave Blaney are the only Toyota cars with a guaranteed spot for the first five races. Jarrett should have no problem entering the top 35 and staying there the entire season. That means he can focus less on qualifying and more on the actual races. Unless the Camry proves totally flaky, Jarrett should be able to score 5-7 top tens. In the right equipment Jarrett is still one of the top restrictor plate drivers. He also has impressive numbers at Michigan, Atlanta and Bristol. He has won at 16 different tracks. His best chance for top tens are at these three track

Jarrett is one of the most popular and well-respected drivers in the sport. The tentative plan is to drive for two more seasons and then retire. Of course, drivers have changed plans before. Jarrett is past competing for championships, but given the right car at the right race he can still vie for wins and top fives.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Reed Sorenson

2007-01-05T08:45:00.000-08:00

Reed Sorenson Age 20
0 wins, 1 top 5, 5 top 10's, 11 top 15's
Points rank: 24th Driver Rating: 68.4
#41 Target Dodge Crew Chief Jimmy Elledge

For a 20 year old rookie with one previous career Cup start, Reed Sorenson's rookie season was pretty normal. Glimpses of his talent blended together with his inexperience for a top 25 points finish. He crashed often (12 times, 4 DNF's), but he also showed why he is a top driving prospect. The biggest thing Sorenson lacks is experience and seat time. A busy 2006 schedule running both full Cup and Busch schedules helped accelerate his learning curve. After winning two Busch races in 2005, last season was a mild disappointment. He finished 10th in points, with 5 top 5's and 14 top 10's. Although it wasn't the season the team anticipated, it was still valuable seasoning.

On the Cup side, Sorenson started slowly, mostly staying out of the way in the first three races. In the fourth race he scored his first top ten at his home track, Atlanta. Strong runs continued at unfriendly tracks like Martinsville (12th) and Darlington (11th) displayed his talent. In between were bumpy runs at Phoenix, Talladega and Richmond.

The combination of Sorenson and crew chief Jimmy Elledge worked well in season one. Prior to Sorenson, Elledge helped Casey Mears improve for three years. One trait of Elledge is his willingness to take risks. At Michigan in a race threatened by rain, Elledge gambled on track position keeping Sorenson out during the final pit stop. The gamble worked as rain shortened the race after 129 laps, giving Sorenson his first top 5. It wasn't a complete theft. Sorenson ran in the top ten during the latter part of the race, but the gamble did leapfrog several cars to improve his finish.

They gambled again at the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana. Sorenson nearly won the race before running out of fuel one lap short, finishing 21st. The move still made sense for a rookie simply trying to get experience and finish races. His best race of the season came at the second Dover race. Sorenson led 39 laps and was running fourth until he again ran out of gas with two laps left. He wound up eleventh, but his 112.5 driver rating was fifth best. The finish also capped a very solid seven race segment where his average finish was 17th. It was a good cross-section of the Cup scene. Races at Watkins Glen, Michigan, Bristol, California, Richmond, Loudon and Dover run the range of difficulty and variety.

Unfortunately like every rookie not named Hamlin, Sorenson hit a rough patch to end the year. After Dover he finished 43rd, 39th, 36th, 35th and 29th. He also drew Dale Jarrett's ire at Lowe's for multiple incidents. As a result Jarrett donated pieces of his wrecked car to Sorenson's hauler.

Looking ahead to 2007 Sorenson will continue to improve with experience. Having established a notebook allows Elledge to improve setups the second time around. Sorenson gets a new teammate to replace the departing Mears. Juan-Pablo Montoya comes to NASCAR after an impressive open-wheel career. Montoya might bring a lot of help for Sorenson. His impressive resume includes championships, premiere wins and experience in several of the world's best racing series. Montoya's credibility will carry more weight when giving feedback to Ganassi. It's not that Ganassi doesn't recognize the need for improvement, but hearing it from a world class driver as opposed to a youngster like Sorenson or David Stremme has more impact.

The biggest question is still about the cars. Can Ganassi improve the equipment and enable Sorenson to run up front consistently? That will determine how successful Sorenson's second season goes. Ganassi made some changes in management during the season. If the changes work, it will help all three cars. Progress could be difficult with cloudy future of Dodge. As the year progresses, don't be surprised to hear rumors about Ganassi moving to Toyota.

Like many rookies Sorenson's weaknesses were plate tracks and short tracks. This is the type of track that sometimes even patience isn't enough. It takes time earning respect from veterans. Sorenson's strength is easily the intermediate tracks. All of his top tens came at 1.5 mile or 2 mile speedways. The results didn't show, but he also ran well at Loudon and Dover. He is scaling back his Busch schedule to focus on the Cup side in 2007. This is probably a good move, especially with the new Car of Tomorrow to worry about. Since that car won't run in the Busch series, the seat time won't transfer as directly.

Sorenson has the potential to win races, but needs consistency first. If Ganassi's equipment improves Sorenson is capable of 2 or 3 top fives. His weekly performance is still uneven, but he will eventually compete for wins and Chase berths in the coming years. A top 20 finish, something he almost accomplished in 2006, is a definite possibility.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Jamie McMurray

2007-01-04T10:20:00.000-08:00

Jamie McMurray
0 wins, 3 top 5’s, 7 top 10’s, 9 top 15’s
Avg start: 25.3 Avg finish 23.6
Points Rank: 25th Driver Rating: 67.4
#26 Crown Royal/Irwin Ford Crew Chief: Larry Carter

Race fans with any level of interest know about Jamie McMurray's story in 2006. First the obvious. He moved to Roush in highly publicized move from Ganassi in 2005. It was a case of a talented driver in search of better equipment. It made sense, except that's not how it played out. He had his worst season in Cup. He endured three crew chiefs, 7 DNF's and had fewer top fifteens (9) than his top ten total in any of his first seasons. And he didn't get any closer to winning his first race since 2002. He did have some nice runs, but fell well short of expectations.

The most vivid picture of McMurray's struggle was of him sitting dejectedly in his garage stall during the Texas race. The handling on the car was so bad he couldn't drive it. No mechanical issues or damage from a wreck, just a terrible car and McMurray and crew having no answer. Jack Roush made a crew chief change the next week, moving Bob Osborne from Carl Edwards' car to the #26 of McMurray.

Aside from the Texas letdown, McMurray hadn't run terribly in the first seven races. A late crash ruined a top ten at Daytona, and he finished 7th at California and 9th at Martinsville. The change initially got results. McMurray finished 14th at Phoenix, 5th at Talladega, 8th at Lowes and 2nd at Dover. He led 95 laps at Dover before teammate Matt Kenseth passed him late for the win. McMurray led a mere 37 total laps in 2005.

McMurray couldn't sustain the success, recording only two top tens the rest of the year. At the start of the season McMurray apparently wasn’t comfortable in the same setups as his teammates. As the year progressed, it’s hard to say whether it was McMurray struggling or Roush Racing as a whole. Roush's intermediate program, their bread and butter the past few years, struggled in the second half of the year, especially during the Chase.

Looking back on the season, when McMurray wasn't struggling, his luck abandoned him. Crashes at Daytona, Bristol, Talladega and Phoenix spoiled good runs. He sat on the outside pole at Sonoma only to spin twice on the first lap. A rock at Darlington knocked his oil pump belt loose, ruining the engine. There is nothing to do but throw your hands up.

Another confounding statistic is McMurray's qualifying on 2006. He had 16 starts of 30th or worse and eight starts worse than 40th. Usually qualifying doesn't mean a lot, especially in relation to finishes. It still illustrates the complete struggle McMurray endured. A car from a top team shouldn’t be consistently outran by single-car, under-funded field-fillers. The other four Roush cars all started an average 19.3 or better.

The question that dogs McMurray is “when will he win another race?” It’s not to Jeff Burton lengths yet, but announcers constantly remind people that he hasn’t won since he subbed for Sterling Marlin in 2002. Despite many critics, McMurray is a very good driver that excels at any type of track. Phoenix is the only track for McMurray without a top ten, although he has a Busch win in 2004. He is equally capable at restrictor plate tracks, short tracks or road courses. Three of his top 10’s were at plate tracks. He is also great at California (5 top 10’s in 7 races), Martinsville, and Charlotte. When he resumes running up front he has a chance to win practically anywhere.

Now it's up to Roush to get McMurray back the front. The team may have slipped below Gibbs, and Hendrick, but Roush is still one of the best organizations at the Cup level. Larry Carter was recently hired as crew chief. He previously worked with Rusty Wallace at Penske and for Michael Waltrip Racing this past year. With the introduction of coil-bound spring packages, certain drivers weren't as comfortable. A second year with Roush should help McMurray find a setup that suits him.

In his first three seasons McMurray finished 13th, 11th, and 21th. He barely missed the Chase in 2004 and 2005. He didn't forget how to drive in one season filled with poor races, tough crashes and strange luck. The season also wasn't as bad as the results show. Switching teams, even a perceived upgrade, is not simply A+B=C. McMurray should return to the top 15 in points and consistently running in the top ten. A win wouldn't be a total shock, especially at California if Roush can regain their mojo at 1.5 and 2 mile tracks.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Dave Blaney

2007-01-03T08:25:00.000-08:00

Dave Blaney Age: 44
0 wins, 1 top 5, 2 top 10's, 4 top 15's
Avg Start: 28.3 Avg finish 24.4
#22 Caterpillar Toyota Crew Chief: Kevin Hamlin

With seven full-time Toyota cars in 2007, who will be most successful? There is Brian Vickers, a young driver with potential. There is former Winston Cup Champ Dale Jarrett. What about established veterans Jeremy Mayfield and Michael Waltrip? Believe it or not, the most successful season just might come from Dave Blaney.

Blaney is the only Toyota driver inside the top 35 in owner points. Bill Davis Racing is also the only Toyota outfit with Cup experience. Neither Michael Waltrip Racing nor Red Bull have competed at the Cup level. Both will experience growing pains in their debuts. That leaves Blaney as the driver with the greatest chance to consistently run well for Toyota.

For the past three seasons BDR has fought legal issues with Dodge, while trying to remain competitive at the Cup level. In this context, Blaney had a pretty solid season. If there was an award for getting the most out of his equipment, Blaney would win. He ranked fifth in laps completed at 98.3%. His cars weren't always fast, but Blaney maximized his finishes. He scored a the car's first top five since the opening race of 2004. He also laid a foundation for improvement in 2007.

Most of the season Blaney survived races and avoided trouble. He only had two DNF's, but his equipment limited him to runing in the 20's and 30's. The first sign of progress was a three race stretch in July. He finished 17th (Chicago), 13th (Loudon) and 16th (Pocono). This was part of a run where he finished on the lead lap in 8 of 10 races. Things got even better in September. He ran exceptionally well at Richmond with a season high 108.7 driver rating and a fourth place finish. For an underfunded team, it was practically a victory. He followed up with a ninth place finish at Loudon and a 12th at Dover.

While moral victories are nice, Blaney finally broke through at the NASCAR level in October. He won a wild Busch race at Lowe's, holding off Matt Kenseth and displaying some serious car control. His first win in NASCAR's top three levels was overshadowed by Kevin Harvick clinching the Busch championship. It still capped an impressive fall for Blaney. It could make for an even better 2007.

For the first season since 2003, BDR gets manufacturer support. BDR is already the premiere Truck organization, backed by Toyota. Getting any support at the Cup level will elevate performance, but Toyota's funding could be enormous. Blaney also welcomes a new teammate for 2007. Michael Waltrip was technically a teammate last year, but he basically consumed cars, resources and owner points. Jeremy Mayfield will drive the #36 BDR car in 2007. Mayfield spent the fall testing cars for BDR. This will help deepen the data pool for both teams. Both drivers have tested the Car of Tomorrow, which is the great unknown for every team. Will BDR's success in the truck series translate to the boxier, heavier CofT?

Blaney will also race full-time in the Busch series for Braun racing in '06. It's his first full Busch season since 1999. While most Cup drivers have reduced their full-time Busch efforts, it makes sense for Toyota teams to get more track time in the new Camry. There will no doubt be wrinkles to iron out in the brand new car. Blaney certainly doesn't need the seat time that a rookie would, but racking up a few top fives or another win in the Busch series never hurts.

With his dirt track background it is not surprising Blaney's strength is tracks where car control is a necessity. Darlington, Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix are all places that Blaney can run well. His best average finish is at Homestead where he had a top ten in 2005. After bouncing around for the past four years from BDR, Jasper, RCR and back to BDR, 2007 grants Blaney some stability. He is finally in the same ride for more than one season. Blaney finished 26th in points in 2006. It is not crazy to think he could crack the top 20. Toyota has several higher profile drivers, but Blaney is the one people will talk about if Toyota has success in 2007.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Joe Nemechek

2007-01-02T10:38:00.000-08:00

Joe Nemechek Age: 43
0 wins, 0 top 5's 2 top tens 4 top 15's
Avg start: 18.0 Avg Finish 24.4
#13 Ginn Chevy Crew Chief: Peter Sospenzo

2006 was a tough season for "Front Row" Joe Nemechek. During the past six seasons, Nemecheck was often a threat to win a race despite never driving a top-flight ride. From 1999-2005, Nemechek won four races, seven poles and scored 15 top fives. Even in winless years, he had chances at wins. He led races late in '05 before suffering heartbreak from a sour engine at California and a flat tire.at Lowe's. 2006 marked the first year that he never seriously contended for a win. It also began a period of transition for Nemechek that continues into 2007.

Nemecheck's season was filled with crashes, especially early in the season. He only had 3 DNF's, but 16 total crashes made for a lot of hollow laps. He finished worse than 25th in six of the first ten races. He was never able to gain traction and make a charge in the points. After finishing 16th in points in 2005, Nemecheck slipped to 27th last year. He managed a meager 2 top ten finishes and both came late in the season. It was a down year overall for MB/2. Sterling Marlin finished 34th and struggled all season in his first year with the team.

The largest change in 2006 was Bobby Ginn purchasing MB/2 motorsports. Ginn purchased the team in August and immediately invested in additional resources for the team. It was after this change that Nemechek began running better. Finished the year with seven straight top 20 finishes including two top tens at Lowe's and Atlanta. If the results declined, Nemechek still showed his qualifying prowess in 2006. He had nine top ten starts and averaged an 18.0 starting position. This strength is a necessity in 2007 as the changes continue for Nemechek.

Last fall Mark Martin announced plans to join Ginn for 2007. The move brings enormous credibility to Ginn, but it is at Nemechek's expense. Matin will be in the US Army #01 with crew chief Ryan Pemberton. This slides Nemechek to a brand new team with a new sponsor, new number, new crew and most significantly no owner's points. That means competing with 12-15 teams for seven available starting spots, including teammate Marlin. Nemechek's a great qualifier(career avg start: 18.4, 9 poles), but there is still no safety net or guarantee. Even the slightest bobble in qualifying can cost enough time to miss the field. There is another problem with starting outside the top 35. Cars go through inspection based on their point ranking. The longer a car has to wait, the less practice time is available. Less practice time for Jimmie Johnson or Matt Kenseth is not vital. Teams looking for the best qualifying setup however, need all the possible track time especially at races when there is only one pre-qualifying practice session.

Finding enough qualifying speed will fall on new crew chief Peter Sospenzo. Sospenzo comes from Hendrick Motorsports. He was Nemechek's crew chief in 2003 and also worked with Brian Vickers and Terry Labonte in the past few years. Nemechek won at Richmond with Sospenzo as crew chief in 2003, so at least it's not a completely blank slate. Another asset for qualifying is the team's engines they lease from Hendrick.
Not only is Nemechek switching teams, but he is also switching sponsors, away from US Army. Nemechek and his family, especially his mother, took this sponsor relationship very seriously. Nemechek even visited troops at Guantanamo Bay this past year. A primary sponsor hasn't been announced, but Ginn Resorts is always a possiblity.

Once Nemechek makes the show, he is very capable beyond two laps. He has Cup 4 wins since 1999. Of the 2007 full-time drivers, only 15 have more than Nemechek.He has always ran well in the speedway and restrictor plate races. Eleven of his 18 top 5's have come on intermediate speedway tracks. He also has a win and three top 5's at Loudon. Short tracks are the wildcard, especially Bristol and Martinsville.

Bobby Ginn is intent on improving the organization. He has already purchased new R&D equipment, expanded to three teams and signed a high profile driver. It might take a rough season in 2007 to realize some of the improvements. With two cars outside the top 35, qualifying is priority one. The addition of Martin should also help solving some of the problems with the cars. Nemecheck is definitely an accomplished driver that is capable of not only winning a race, but finishing inside the top 20 in points. If he can steer clear of crashes and start the season well, a top 25 points finish is possible. Realistically it will be a fight to stay inside the top 35 this year.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Jeff Green

2007-01-01T08:41:00.000-08:00

Jeff Green Age: 44
0 wins, 0 top 5’s, 2 top 10’s, 7 top 15’s
Avg Start: 25.4 Avg Finish 24.4
Points: 28 Driver Rating:59.3
#66 Best Buy Chevy Crew Chief: Harold Holly

Jeff Green is a definite candidate for most anonymous driver in the Nextel Cup. The only time he is caught on camera is during crashes or incidents with other drivers. Aside from getting parked by NASCAR at Richmond, name a time when Green was mentioned during a race. There was the occasional crash, or a few instances when he ran inside the top. Primarily, though, Green ran in the 20's, kept to himself and finished races. In his first year with Haas/CNC Racing, he had his best season since 2002. He had two top tens and finished 28th in the standings. The numbers don't look great, but Green's team improved a lot during the home stretch.

After his move from Petty Enterprises, the season began solidly for Green and his new team. Aside from an early crash at Daytona, he ran competitively. He had six top 20 finishes in the first 10 races sat 21st in the points. He had a very good race during the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte. He led 16 laps and had a 96.3 driver rating. He and teammate Johnny Sauter both ran up front in the first half of the race. Green wound up 12th, his best finish to date.

Unfortunately his summer was not as solid. He finished worse than 25th in eight of the next nine races. His plummeted to 28th and still had zero top ten finishes. By the time the series reached the fall Richmond race, Green was 27th in points and probably more than a little frustrated.

Early in the race Green was hit by Johnson and spun. Later, Johnson was involved in another crash that didn't involve Green. While Johnson attempted to get the car back in line, Green ran into the #48 car. NASCAR quickly ended Green's night, pulling him from the race. In a season filled with spins and intentional bumps, Green was the only driver to receive this harsh penalty.

Green's temper has cost him before. Last year he had skirmishes with Michael Waltrip at Martinsville and Darlington where they took turns hitting the other. Green can't afford to let his emotions ruin any finishes next year. The competition has increased and there is no time to settle personal agendas on track. He also had a crash with Tony Raines at Phoenix. Afterwards he appeared to stare down Raines, but it never led to anything more, probably because Green’s car was on a truck by then. Raines later took responsibility for the wreck.

The Chase did provide improvement for Green and the #66 car. He scored a season-best 7th at Talladega, followed by another strong run at Charlotte (16th). Two weeks later Haas made a crew chief switch. Bootie Barker moved to the Busch series and Harold Holly joined the cup team. Green and Holly previously won six races and the Busch title in 2000. They also set a record with 25 top five finishes that year (As amazing as Kevin Harvick was in 2006, he only had 23 top fives.). Holly's first Cup race was at Martinsville in October. Green finished 8th and had his highest rated race of the season (98.7). Aside from the crash at Phoenix, Green finished the year strongly. He averaged an 18th place finish in the final seven races.

The Green/Holly combination worked in a limited time. This allows for hope in 2007. Haas is running a second car in 2007 for Johnny Sauter. In the long run expansion is the only way the team can survive at the Cup level. It’s a more efficient use for personnel, beacuse two teams can compile and trade more information. More sponsors also creates a larger operating budget. In the short run, however, it could cost Green in 2007. As the organization gets Sauter’s team up to speed, there is the risk of neglecting the established #66 team. Because Sauter's team must qualify for at least the first five races, he will require stronger engines and more attention to qualifying. Until both teams are up and running, the organization risks overextending themselves.

Another asset for Green is that Haas uses Hendrick engines. This helps greatly for qualifying and especially on plate tracks. Talladega is one of Green's best tracks, along with Martinsville. He also has done well at the two road courses in the past. Green is not going to make the Chase or threaten for wins. That doesn't discount the fact that he is a capable driver that will keep the car inside the top 35 in points and pull off the occasional top 10. With increased competition next year, a driver that can secure one of the guaranteed starting spots is definitely valuable. Over the past three years, Haas finished 27th, 28th, 28th in owner’s points. The last three years Green finished 30th, 29th, 28th. It's a pretty safe bet to pick Green in this neighborhood again.

NASCAR Driver Preview: JJ Yeley

2006-12-29T08:35:00.000-08:00

JJ Yeley Age 30
0 wins, 0 top 5’s, 3 top 10’s, 9 top 15’s
Avg start 21.2, avg finish 25.0
Points Rank: 29th Driver Rating: 66.5
#18 Interstate Batteries Chevy Crew Chief: Steve Addington

Why can’t you be more like your brothers? That must be how JJ Yeley feels when compared to his teammates. Yeley’s plight is similar to a younger sibling with two older brothers: a high school quarterback and a straight A student. Sure he struggled in his rookie year, but look who he is compared to. Denny Hamlin won two races and made the Chase in his rookie year. Tony Stewart has two Championships and won 5 races for the second straight year.

In other words, Yeley had an average rookie season, but is teammates with arguably the best driver in NASCAR, and the driver with one of the best rookie seasons ever. There is nothing wrong with being a normal rookie. Positives (three top 10's, nine top 15's) laced with negatives (7 DNF's) summarizes Yeley's season nicely. A further look shows Yeley’s point standing was 29th, but his composite driver rating was 25th. Like most drivers with ratings that outperform their points, the reason was wrecks. He had 17 total crashes, good for 7 DNF's and 16 sub-30 finishes. In a short time he has already acquired a reputation for wadding sheetmetal.

All rookies will find trouble with one or more veterans during a long year. For most of the season Yeley avoided this trouble. Unfortunately he made a rookie mistake at the worst possible time. During the October race at Charlotte, Yeley collided with Chase contender and popular veteran Mark Martin. The scary crash cost Martin a shot at his first title. Yeley took some heat over the incident, especially since it was his third straight DNF from a wreck. Despite all the frustrations and bad finishes, he still wasn't as bad as Jason Leffler.

Joking aside, Yeley has serious talent and a resume to match. His open wheel background is similar to Stewart’s. They are the only two drivers to win the USAC Triple Crown. Yeley also set a USAC record with 24 wins during the 2003 season, breaking AJ Foyt's record. Yeley obviously has talent and was personally recommended to Gibbs by Stewart.

There were several examples of Yeley's talent in 2006. He started 4th at California, ran in the top ten the entire day finishing 8th. It was also his highest rated race with a 91.9. In July he finished 10th, 12th and 11th in a three race span at Chicago, Loudon and Pocono respectively. Based on the season driver ratings, Yeley's average running position was 22nd. This was better than Reed Sorenson and right behind Martin Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer. He also finished fifth in the Busch series standings with nine top 5's and 22 top 10's.

Frequent crashes can make for a long season, but they aren't a barometer for a driver's career. Numerous young drivers have dealt with the same thing and grew out of it once experience caught up with talent. Kasey Kahne is the most recent example. Kahne has a similar sprint car background.

Yeley's biggest tool for improvement is seat time. For the second straight season, Yeley will run both full Cup and Busch schedules. This year he will drive in Busch in James Finch's #1 car. Any seat time is valuable for Yeley, but it could be beneficial in another way. Finch is not a top Busch team and it will require Yeley's skill and more importantly patience to succeed.

If you want an idea how Yeley might do, compare his rookie season to Brian Vickers'. Vickers showed speed at times, but also frequently crashed his top-flight equipment. He had four top tens compared to Yeley's three. Vickers settled down in his second year, had some good runs and showed overall improvement. For Yeley to get 7-9 top tens plus 1 or 2 top 5 finishes is reasonable.

Yeley is a very good qualifier. He had nine top ten starts in addition to three Busch poles. It wouldn't be surprising if Yeley won a Cup pole next year. Right now his best tracks are speedways like California, Texas and Chicago. Over time, places like Richmond, Loudon and Phoenix could fit his style well too.

At 30, Yeley is not a young gun like most of the 2006 rookies. Does that make 2007 more urgent? The good news is probably not. That is not Joe Gibbs' style. One of the strengths of Gibbs Racing is the continuity. Tony Stewart has had the same crew chief for almost a decade. Interstate Batteries is a part of that continuity and it's doubtful they will demand immediate results that other more high-profile sponsors might. That said, Yeley can't get too comfortable. Aric Almirola is driving for Gibbs in Busch in 2007. If things go well, he could be Cup-ready soon.

Progress will come on 2007, but accidents and mistakes will still temper the season. If Yeley smooths out the rough spots, he could jump up to the low 20's in points. Year three will be the real chance for Yeley to make a splash.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Robby Gordon

2006-12-28T08:16:00.000-08:00

Robby Gordon Age: 38
0 Wins, 1 top 5’s, 3 to 10’s, 10 top 15’s
9 DNF’s
Avg Start: 27.5 Avg Finish: 25.3
#7 Menard's/Jim Beam Ford Crew Chief: Greg Erwin

Mention Robby Gordon and you’ll get an array of reactions. Some think he has no talent, others think he’s one of the finest drivers in the garage. Still other people consider him reckless and a cheater. With most things, the accurate picture is somewhere in the middle. Gordon will probably always be a lightning rod for fans.

Whatever your personal opinion of Gordon, the progress his one-car team has made in two seasons is impressive. Prior to 2005 Gordon announced bold plans to run his own Cup team. After failing to qualify for races, having fickle equipment and poor finishes in 2005, the critics appeared right. Gordon built upon that rough beginning and made significant progress in 2006.

The biggest immediate obstacle was making races. Gordon successfully qualified for the Daytona 500 and the next four races to secure a top 35 starting spot. Once safely inside, Gordon went about improving his finishes. His 30th place finish didn’t fully represent how he ran in many races. His 64.9 driver rating was 26th. Several races were spoiled by DNF’s. He had a Cup worst nine. He also completed a very low 86% of the possible laps. Some of these issues were out of his control, while others were self-inflicted wounds. He had 10 top fifteen finishes and 14 finishes worse than 30th. Consistency was not present in the #7 car.

In the early part of the season Gordon had several good runs ruined by late problems. At both Atlanta and Texas he ran inside the top ten only to get trapped under caution. His first top ten came at Talladega in the spring. He added a fourth at Watkins Glen and a 10th at the fall Atlanta race to his season.

The Atlanta finish also created controversy for Gordon. Late in the race Gordon was caught throwing a piece of debris in hopes of a caution. The caution did drop, allowing him to stay on the lead lap and ultimately close out a top ten. NASCAR’s hammer also dropped, costing Gordon 50 points and $15,000. That’s still an improvement compared to thrown helmets and cursing on national TV.

Robby Gordon Motorsports is primed for more improvement next year too. He is switching from Chevy to Ford. Joining Ford will lend better manufacturer support. Instead of fighting for scraps with Chevrolet, Gordon is now one of nine cars getting support from Ford. The Yates/Roush engine package will provide better reliability. Gordon used DEI engines in 2006. This was an improvement over Menard’s engines and was a large factor in Gordon qualifying for races in 2006, but Gordon still had 3 engine blowups.

Crew Chief Greg Erwin found a speedy setup for the intermediate tracks. Now Gordon needs some luck to get his deserved finishes. He is always a favorite to win at the two road courses, and obliges when his equipment cooperates. He should also continue his strong runs at plate tracks (avg finish 13.25 in ’06). He has three career Cup wins at Sonoma, Watkins Glen and Loudon. His achilles heel is short tracks. In 13 races at Martinsville his average finish is 32.9 and has not scored a top ten. Excluding Loudon, all the 1-mile and shorter tracks (Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, Bristol, Dover) all give Gordon problems. That's over a quarter of the schedule to struggle at.

The key is smoothing out the erratic finishes. More reliable engines will help, but Gordon must also avoid crashes and not lose control of his emotions. When he runs well, ensuring a good finish is a must. If it's not a strong track, don't try too hard and end up in a wreck. In his three full seasons with Richard Childress Racing he scored finishes of 20th, 16th, and 23rd. In his third season of ownership, his equipment should gain consistency. Geting more even results should bring him closer to this type of points finish. He is not a Chase contender, but 20-25 in points is respectable and realistic. Considering where he started two years ago that would be quite impressive.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Ken Schrader

2006-12-27T11:16:00.000-08:00

Ken Schrader Age: 51
0 wins, 0 top 5's, 2 top 10's, 8 top 15's
Avg Start 25.6 Avg finish 26.2 8 DNF's
Pts Rank: 31st, Driver Rating: 57.2
#21 Little Debbie Ford
Crew Chief: Michael "Fatback" McSwain

Ken Schrader simply loves to drive cars. As if 704 Cup starts wasn't enough, Schrader also races in Busch, Truck and several dirt series. Not all the results shone in 2006, but a move to Wood Brothers produced several good runs. After moving from underfunded BAM racing to one of NASCAR's landmark teams, Schrader scored 2 top tens and 8 top fifteens.

Moving from Dodge to Ford, Schrader enjoyed Yates/Roush engines, one of the strongest in the sport. He took immediate advantage and finished ninth at the season opening Daytona 500. It was the 22nd top ten at Daytona in Schrader's career. Aside from two early mechanical failures, Schrader did what he does best: complete laps and stay out of trouble. He finished 16th at Texas, Phoenix and Talladega. Add a 15th at Richmond and his late spring was very successful. Sandwiched in the middle of his run was an unavoidable crash at Talladega. While the crash was out of his hands, it was still his third DNF in the first nine races. He ended up with 8 total DNF's on the year.

As successful as his spring was, June ushered in 7 finishes of 26th or worse out of eight races. This included two more crashes at Michigan and Sonoma. The summer swoon led to a key move by Wood Brothers. Crew Chief David Hyder was replaced by Fatback McSwain to prepare for 2007. He took over as crew chief in July and made an instant impact. Hyder had been Schrader's crew chief at both BAM and Wood Brothers. But McSwain is a proven difference maker and it was the right move. In the first two races, Schrader finished 15th at Pocono, and 14th at Indianapolis.

Solid runs continued up to his best race of the season. He scored a 7th at Richmond, running in the top ten all night (94.5 driver rating). Three more crashes during the Chase ended the year on a sour note. Still Schrader did have several good runs, especially after McSwain took over. This gives promise for next year.

Schrader's best two tracks, as shown in 2006, are Daytona and Richmond. Like most veterans he is strongest on tracks that require patience. Places like Martinsville, Darlington, and Bristol all give Schrader a chance at a top ten. Factor in McSwain's knowledge and it's realistic to think Schrader can improve on 2006. The biggest key is avoiding the eight DNF's. As long as Schrader is on track, he is capable of finishing in the top 25 regardless of the track or quality of car. Given a good car and Schrader can land a top fifteen finish. A weakness of Schrader is the newer intermediate tracks. At Kansas, Texas, Chicago, Fontana, Las Vegas and Homestead he has a single top ten. McSwain will try to find a good setup for this type of track.

A large unknown for all of NASCAR is the pending Car of Tomorrow. This should be less of a worry for the Wood Brothers. Ford is reportedly undertaking the research and design for the team's CofT. As a one car team, this greatly levels the playing field for the Woods. Given Schrader's experience in numerous racing series, including the similar Truck series, the new car won't pose a large problem. The races will also be at Schrader's stronger tracks like Richmond, Bristol and Martinsville. Certainly no panic from Wood Brothers and Schrader.

Despite staying with the Wood Brothers, 2007 will be a transition year. Schrader will split time with rookie Jon Wood. Schrader has driven a full schedule every year since his rookie year in 1984. It is not known how long Schrader will drive in Cup. He will turn 52 in May. Wood Brothers is intent on expanding to two Cup cars, however that might not include Schrader. With Wood already set to drive in 2007 and Marcos Ambrose working through the ranks, Schrader might be the odd man out.

In the age of young guns, it is more difficult than ever for a veteran like Schrader to stay in the sport. Schrader, who also owns a dirt track in Missouri, will no doubt drive as long as someone is willing. He is popular with sponsors, can drive any type of car and just loves to race. 2007 might indicate how long Schrader will or can continue.

Previewing the New Veterans:

2006-12-26T16:53:00.000-08:00

After taking most of 2006 off, two popular veterans are returning to full-time Cup rides in 2007. Ward Burton and Ricky Rudd both return to Nascar’s top series. Both have decades ofexperience winning races and finishing in the top ten in points. The problem is that past experience won’t matter as much as one might think.

In two years the sport has changed quite a bit. A new aero-package, the innovation of coil-bound springs, newly paved tracks, the Car of Tomorrow and constantly evolving tire combinations all pose a steep challenge to any driver. It’s hard enough for full-time drivers to keep up with, let alone a driver on hiatus. Rudd and Burton are veterans, but they also are in new rides. Each is stepping into a different situation, and that will greatly effect how they do in 2006.

After a year off, Ricky Rudd joined Robert Yates Racing for the second time in his career. Rudd won three races in his first stint with Yates from 2000-2002.This time Rudd's signing helps Yates out of a dire situation. As recently as Homestead, there were rumors of Yates selling part of his team and the #88 car. Now the car has full funding from Snickers and the best available driver in Rudd to wheel it.

Rudd is still a threat to win races when given good cars. An outstanding road racer (six career wins), he nearly held off Tony Stewart at Sonoma in 2005 before finishing 2^nd. His best tracks are Dover, Kansas, Texas and Bristol.

He last raced for Wood Bros, so he’s familiar with Ford’s operations. He also tested for a few teams in 2006, especially on the Car of Tomorrow. Rudd also subbed for an injured Stewart at Dover last May. No one has more experience than Rudd and the fact he stayed involved with testing during his time off will help. He easily maintain a top 35 spot and give a few good runs, probably 5-6 top tens.

Rudd’s biggest contributions may come outside of his car. One project is helping teammate David Gilliland mature. He will no doubt be available for the young driver to bounce ideas and strategy off. Yates Racing is beginning to dig out of a miserable 2006. If interested, Rudd could play a role in this reconstruction in the same way Jeff Burton did at RCR.

After getting released by Haas/CNC racing near the end of 2004, Ward Burton took nearly two full years off. He did some television work plus several wildlife conservation projects. Realizing he still wanted to race, in 2006 he began talking to different teams about returning. During the summer Burton was rumored to join several top teams including Yates. When the offers dried up, Burton joined Morgan-McClure. He raced three times at the end of 2006 and will drive full time in 2007.

Burton admitted the time off cost him. Getting reacquainted with the technology is the largest task during the offseason. Unfortunately that might be the least of his troubles. The #4 car hasn't been competitive for years. Since 2000, the team has two top tens. They failed to qualify for six races in 2006 and couldn't even net a top fifteen finish. One necessary upgrade is the engine program. Scott Wimmer suffered 3 failures during 2006 in the 4 car.

Like many one-car teams, they also struggled with full-time sponsorship. The immensely popular Burton should help in that area too. State Water Heaters is signed on for 2007.

On the track, Burton’s foremost challenge is making races. With no owner's points, he will be fighting to simply qualify for the field. Once there, he knows how to avoid trouble and get finishes. If Burton can make 30 races it will be a successful year. One possibility for Burton is using Morgan McClure as a bridge to a better ride. He spends this year getting familiar with the scene and then finds an open seat with a multi-car team. While it is nice to see one of NASCAR's good characters back in Cup action, Burton probably won't enjoy a dream season.

Merry Christmas

2006-12-22T08:42:00.000-08:00

I thought today was a good time to take a break from the driver previews and see what else is going on. Ricky Rudd and Ward Burton will be waiting here Tuesday.

-Plenty of good blogs have covered Teresa Earnhardt calling out Dale Jr. I agree with the general thought that DEI may be the problem and not Junior. Since she is the boss at DEI however, it's her business if she doesn't think Junior is the right driver for their plans. The puzzling thing is why would she say this? It's very puzzling. At the very worst, Junior is a top fifteen driver, and that's very conservative. Realistically he's in a group of four or five that are right behind Stewart and Gordon. It would be hard to lure another driver with as much talent to DEI. That's not even considering the unmatched marketing potential, popularity, merchandise sales, and virtually unlimited sponsorships. Budweiser would follow Junior if he decided to drive Go-Karts. It's not simpy a top-ten driver that leaves, but the whole package leaves too. I think Junior will eventually re-sign with DEI, but the comments don't help.

-Kenny Wallace got a new crew chief this week. Jay Guy (not to be confused with former Raiders punter Ray Guy) takes over for Joe Garone. Here's hoping Guy has a great qualfiying setup.

-Annheuser Busch ends sponsorship with the Grand National Series after 2007. Nascar should be able to find another sponsor that will pay more money. People will still refer to it as the Busch series, although I thinkPoulan Weedeater should come aboard. Then all the Cup drivers could be Weedwhacker-whackers. Or would Cupsters be the weeds? Poulan Weedeater should have extra sponsorship money considering they no longer sponsor the Poulan-Weedeater Independence Bowl. That was always my favorite bowl name, along with the Weiser-Lock Copper Bowl.

-Marcos Ambrose will drive up to 10 Cup races next year. Right now the two road courses are certain, and the other eight races are dependent on funding and his success. Ambrose is an interesting prospect to me. He raced stock cars on Australia and figured out the trucks pretty quickly in 2006. He will drive a full Busch schedule next year and I think if he gets good cars he can surprise. If the Wood Brothers expand to two cars in 2008, Ambrose is in good shape for one of the rides.

-It's the last work day before Christmas and it might be the most stress-free Christmas I've had in a long time. This year we didn't do any gift exchanges or buy a lot of presents. Instead we took the money we'd normally spend on Christmas and donated it to charity. It was an idea our church had for this year's advent season. It's not that gifts are bad, but it can get so out of control. Plus, when you realize that many people in the US and the world can't afford rent, groceries, new clothes or even have safe drinking water it gives a little more perspective. Merry Christmas to everyone and be safe.

2006-12-21T10:10:00.000-08:00

Kyle Petty
Age: 46
Crew Chief: Bill Wilburn
#45 Wells Fargo Dodge
(0 wins, 0 top 5's, 2 top 10s, 3 top 15's)
Pts: 32nd Rating 48.7

The 2006 season saw lots of ups and downs for Petty Enterprises, and Kyle Petty's year reflected this. Petty scored two top ten finishes, but also struggled with consistent sponsorship as well as maintaining a top 35 spot. After spending much of the year outside the top 35, Petty strung together several strong finishes during the Chase to secure a starting spot for next year. The late charge may have saved the #45 from an uncertain future in 2007.
During the offseason, Petty Enterprises created serious buzz by landing some of the top talent in NASCAR. Robbie Loomis, Todd Parrot and Bobby Labonte all joined the organization at around the same time. This brought added excitement and expectations to the Petty's organization, not only for Labonte's #43 car, but also for the #45.

The season started decently as Petty finished eighth at the spring Atlanta race, and also had 18th's at Bristol, Talladega and Darlington. The summer however, was rough for Petty. From July to the start of September, he went 11 races finishing worse than 27th, including six straight races finishing worse than 30th. This tailspin pushed him outside the top 35. For his part, he made every race on time.

Prior to the Chase, Petty hired Bill Wilburn as crew chief and slid Paul Andrews over to Labonte's car. Wilburn, who has worked for Hendrick, Penske and Yates among others, brought tangible improvement during the final ten races. It started with a 22nd at Charlotte. Not a great result, but considering how he had ran the second half of the year, it was improvement. The next week at Martinsville he scored his second top ten of the year. It was his best race of the season, his driver rating was a respectable 80.1. He stayed in the top fifteen practically the whole day before closing it out in tenth. Petty followed up with at 17th at Atlanta, an 11th Texas and a 25th at Phoenix, finishing on the lead lap. Meanwhile Sterling Marlin faltered in the same stretch, opening the door for Petty to rejoin the top 35.

Anytime a team is struggling to finish races, it is a rough year. When you look at where Petty and his team were for the last five years, it's easier to notice the progress. From 200-2004, Petty had two top tens total. Since 2005, he's scored four. It proves that not only are they getting closer equipment-wise, but Petty can still wheel a car.

Two of the biggest reasons for the rebound are personnel and engines. Loomis and Andrews both won Championships as crew chiefs. Wilburn also has over 20 years of Cup experience, and famously helped David Gilliland win a 2006 Busch race with less resources than Petty has. The talent level has improved over the past year.

The other big difference was Petty's decision to switch to Evernham engines before the 2005 season. The previous three seasons Petty used Mike Ege engines, but grew frustrated with the lack of performance. The switch has given an obvious boost in horspower and speed. Evernham engines are obviously strong, but they are susceptible to failures. Petty lost two engines and Bobby Labonte had three failures. The top engine builders averaged a 3% failure rate, Evernham had 5%.

Petty is no longer a threat to win or consistently run up front. Don't discount him as a skilled driver though. Over his career he has won at short tracks, road courses, intermediate and speedways. His strength remains his experience. His 785 Career starts places him 6th all time. After Texas, he was technically the active leader in starts until Ricky Rudd unretired.for 2007. Like most veterans, this experience shows up at the short tracks like Bristol and Martinsville.

One of the most encouraging parts of Petty’s season was his success on speedways. He finished tenth and 17th at Atlanta and an 11th at Texas. If PE can continue improvement at the 1.5 and 2 mile speedways the solid results should continue.

The biggest challenge for the team is the Car of Tomorrow. PE has limited resources compared to the larger teams. They can’t simply throw additional people and money at the new project. It's a large enough task keeping up with the three and four car teams in Cup, let alone building two different cars simultaneously. PE is also at a disadvantage by not having a Busch team for collecting data.

With so many new teams entering Cup next year Petty will again walk the owners' points tightrope. He can't afford to squander his guaranteed starting spot during the first five races. If he can stay on the track his equipment should allow him to finish in the top 25 most weeks. If bad luck or mechanical gremlins strike, disaster may follow.

When the Petty’s run well, everyone associated with NASCAR benefits. Petty can drive as long as he wants to. He has earned that right with his respected status in the garage and his incredible charity work. Kyle Petty and PE as a whole play a large role in NASCAR. Although the performance has slid, there are still few names bigger than Petty in NASCAR. Here's hoping Kyle Petty continues to have the chance to drive every week.

NASCAR Driver Preview: David Stremme

2006-12-20T10:12:00.000-08:00

David Stremme
Age: 29 Crew Chief: Steven Lane
#40 Coors Light/Lonestar Steakhouse Dodge
(0 wins, 0 top 5's, 0 top 10's, 4 top 15's)
Avg start 26.4 Avg finish 26.4
Pts: 34th, Driver Rating: 54.2
It's too bad David Stremme and the 40 car fell into a huge hole at the start of the season, because his late season progress went unnoticed. After a 28th place, lead-lap finish at the Daytona 500, it unraveled quickly for the Chip Ganassi rookie. Accidents and mechanical failures left Stremme finishing 33rd or worse in the next five races. After the Bristol race, Stremme was locked outside the top 35. Things were so dire, he was battling Brent Sherman in the standings. To Stremme's credit he qualified for every race he was entered.

From race #2 at California through the 14th race at Pocono, Stremme did not have a lead lap finish. Compounding the struggles was acrew chief switch, forcing Stremme to start over mid-season. After the seventh race at Texas, Stremme got a new crew chief. First-time crew chief Jeff Vandermoss was replaced by veteran Steven Lane. In the long run, the Stremme and Lane combination began working. In his next seven starts, he had six lead lap finishes. The only race he didn't finish on the lead lap, he finished one lap down at the July Pocono race.

While the finishes weren't eye-catching, there were signs of improvement. He qualified 4th at Darlington and 3rd at the July Daytona race. He finished a season high 11th at New Hampshire, his first top 15. He also had a highlight during an ARCA race at Michigan. Driving for Rusty Wallace, Stremme lapped the entire field en route to the win. That has to build confidence for a young driver. With some help from Scott Pruett at road courses, he rejoined the top 35 in August.

Stremme's finishes improved as the year progressed, especially during the Chase. While he couldn't score his first top ten, he did have three top fifteen finishes during the final ten races. Had another strong run at Atlanta ruined by a Kasey Kahne “brain fade ”. His average finish for the Chase was 21.9. For context, Chaser Kyle Busch averaged a 22.6 finish.

Stremme stepped into a difficult position in 2006. The #40 car hadn't been a consistent threat for three years. His crew chief Vandermoss was brand new to Ganassi after moving from Matt Kenseth's team at Roush. Worse, his teammates were Reed Sorenson, a twenty -year old rookie and Casey Mears, entering his fourth year in Cup. There wasn't a veteran presence at Ganassi making it tough to lean on anyone for information. The equipment was also not on par with the elite teams in the sport. Adding to the pressure, his sponsor Coors Light competes against two high profile drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kurt Busch. Coors will always be third to Budweiser and Miller Lite in Nascar. Not the ideal scenario to step into. Don’t feel too bad, he did win $3,422,254 in earnings.

Unfortunately, most of these issues remain in 2007. Mears left Ganassi for Hendrick Motorsports. He was replaced with Juan-Pablo Montoya. Montoya has loads of racing experience, but almost zero in a stock car. This means Stremme is the elder statesman of the team. The cars made strides on the technology side, but still are behind other multi-car teams.

The biggest key for Stremme depends on how Ganassi can improve their cars. Ernie Elliott provides reliable engines (2 blown engines all season), but not always known for pure horsepower. The organization hasn’t won a race since 2002. None of the cars have run consistently at the front over the last two years. It also hurts that Dodge is fourth among manufacturer support in NASCAR.

There is good news as well. Ganassi hired John Fernandez from Dodge to manage the racing operation. The addition of Montoya to Cup could also spur Ganassi to improve the fleet of cars. The Dodge Charger will also get a new nose, which the teams hope will solve some of the aerodynamic and balance issues from the past two years.

In the meantime, Stremme should continue to improve into a solid driver in his second season. Many of his best finishes in the Busch series came on short, flat tracks like Milwaukee and Memphis. His best finishes in Cup came on similar styled tracks like Martinsville and Loudon. These kind of tracks are less reliant on aerodnamics and more about handling and the driver. Stremme, the 2003 Busch Rookie of the Year, can at least have these tracks to fall back on while waiting for improvements at intermediate tracks. Barring another top-35 fallout, he should also get his first chances at the two road courses in Cup action. Stremme is still learning and the more seat time the better. Capturing his first top tens in Cup should happen this year and a top 30 finish in the points is likely.

Earnhardt Newsflash

2006-12-20T08:11:00.000-08:00

Tuscaloosa, AL-After an exhaustive search for their next head coach, the University of Alabama again went after a big name. Kerry Earnhardt will succeed Mike Shula as Crimson Tide football coach. The eldest son of the late Dale Earnhardt, he has spent the last eight years driving in NASCAR's Busch and Truck series. Lack of football experience was apparently not an issue for AD Mal Moore, "Alabama football is recognized as one of the biggest names in college sports. Likewise, the Earnhardt name is associated with success in the state of Alabama . It's a perfect fit."

Earnhardt and his siblings, Kelly Elledge and Dale Earnhardt Jr, also announced plans to begin construction on a racing complex in Alabama. The site will now be on the Alabama campus in Tuscaloosa.

When asked how important winning an SEC title would be, Earnhardt replied, "It don't mean sh**!. My daddy won here ten times."

The fan reaction was mixed. Some fans feel Earnhardt will be the best coach since Bear Bryant. Others feel Kerry got the job based on his name and doesn't have any real talent. Time will tell, although merchandise sales increased 133% following the announcement.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Sterling Marlin

2006-12-18T21:02:00.000-08:00

For more than 15 years Sterling Marlin was a consistent force on the Cup tour. From 1987-2002, he won eight races, including back to back Daytona 500’s. He averaged 5 top 5’s and 12 top tens per season during the decade and finished as high as third in the points. His best year, 2002, was cut short by an injury or he may have won his first Winston Cup. Since that year, injury related or otherwise, Marlin’s performance has slipped every year. 2006 marked the fourth straight season with a decline in top 10’s, points rank and laps led. Marlin had one top ten. He hadn’t scored less than four in a year since 1985 when he only ran eight races.

Marlin was essentially put out to pasture in 2005 by Chip Ganassi/Felix Sabates racing and landed with MB/2 motorsports. The year did not go well from the season opener at Daytona. Marlin finished worse than 32nd in the first four races and sunk any serious hopes for competing. By the end of the year Marlin was fighting to stay in the top 35 in owners’ points, a battle he lost.

Marlin had two patches of solid runs spread among the wrecks and poor finishes. In the spring Marlin finished 17^th at Bristol, 14^th at Martinsville, 12^th at Phoenix and 9^th at Richmond. The second run came in the fall when he had a 20^th (Kansas), 11^th (Charlotte), 21^st (Martinsville), and 20^th(Atlanta). Unfortunately poor finishes surrounded the rest of the year. Marlin had 18 races 30^th or worse, and only 9 lead lap finishes.

8 DNF’s were the major reason for Marlin falling outside the top 35. The last three races Marlin suffered two crashes and a blown engine. Marlin had three engine failures during the year, surprisingly high for Hendrick motors. By comparison, the four Hendrick teams lost four engines total.

Despite the frustrations on the track, some good things did happen in 2006. Marlin passed the $40 million mark in career earnings. He also made his 700th Cup start, moving to ninth all-time. The biggest plus was Bobby Ginn purchasing the team. Ginn began the year with partial sponsorship of the #14 car. This only whetted his appetite for NASCAR. Like the old Remington shaver commercials, Ginn liked it so much he bought the company. Ginn made an immediate difference. MB/2 had struggled to fund 2 full-time teams and was considering merging with DEI. Once Ginn bought the company, not only were both cars fully sponsored, the team will expand to three cars in 2007.

Journeyman Slugger Labbe is Marlin’s crew chief. Labbe has not lasted a full season with one team since 2003. He left DEI and Michael Waltrip in 2004 and moved to Evernham in 2005. He helped Jeremy Mayfield make the Chase, but was fired before the year was out. Labbe surfaced at Robert Yates and worked with Dale Jarrett. After a four-race suspension for rules infractions, Labbe was eventually released from Yates mid-season. So Labbe is now on his fourth team in three years, and no one should be shocked if he didn’t last the whole season at Ginn either.

Looking forward, 2007 may be Marlin's final full season. He turns 50 in June and his future might depend on how next year goes. The first five races require Marlin to qualify on speed. With so much competition for seven spots, Marlin faces a tough challenge. Marlin averaged a 23.9 starting position in 2006. Hendrick motors will help in his qualifying quest, although it could cost him practice time in race trim.

Ginn’s money should inject new hope for the operation. The team is now able to afford newer technologies necessary to stay competitive. Expanding to three full-time teams means additional data to share. Marlin can still drive, especially at short tracks. His average finish at the six short track races was 20.5. Richmond was his only top ten finish all year. He also has five career wins at plate tracks and knows how to work in the draft. The team has run well at plate tracks, which bodes well for the start of the year. Marlin’s career has declined, but at choice tracks he is still capable of a strong run. With renewed support and excitement from Ginn, Marlin is capable of entering the top 35 in points. This would go a long towards securing sponsorship for the car. It might also be motivation for Marlin to return in 2008.

NASCAR Driver Preview: Tony Raines

2006-12-18T09:25:00.000-08:00

Tony Raines			Age: 42
#96 DLP Chevrolet			Crew Chief: Brandon Thomas
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
29	0	0	1	3
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	31.8	24.4	35th	54.0
RAF	LLF	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
28	11	28	1	$2,317,695

Want an idea of how the new Toyota teams will fare in 2007? Look to Hall of Fame racing for an example. The way their season went might be the absolute best scenario for how to form a Cup team. The #96 car quietly and uneventfully worked their way into the top 35. Once there they began building a foundation for the next year. With a combination of Terry Labonte and Tony Raines, the car was simultaneously avoiding trouble and the spotlight. The two combined for 1 DNF all season.

Crashes are a season killer. This is especially true for an upstart, one car team. Raines had an exceptional season in this context. Toyota teams should aim to mirror the #96’s smooth entry to the Cup series. Staying inside the Top 35, finishing races and avoiding crashes are the three big keys to success for a rookie team. Hall of Fame accomplished all three.

The team had a lot of other factors to help avoid many of the growing pains of a new team. Labonte and his Champion provisional started the first five races for a guaranteed starting spot. He finished every race to firmly secure the #96 team inside the top 35. This alleviated pressure once Tony Raines assumed the wheel at Martinsville. Joe Gibbs Racing also provided engines, cars and technical support. HoF was able to piggyback off of Gibbs’ experience starting a new car, which they endured in 2005.

After several years of scraping together rides in the various NASCAR series, Tony Raines finally landed a ride with a reliable, funded team. He made the most of his chance in 2006. Raines is the type of driver that will not generate attention or incite on-track drama. He simply drives hard, completes laps and finishes as well as possible. Despite running only 29 races, he still finished 35th in points. He bested Travis Kvapil and Michael Waltrip despite fewer starts.

Think about all the potential problems a race team faces every race. Now consider that Raines had one DNF and you realize how impressive his record was last year. Obviously some luck is involved, but the driver and crew also need skill. It's deciding when to pit when he hears a vibration, avoiding cars on pit road, and not squeezing into a small hole on lap 40. The crew also deserves credit for ensuring every part from the $45,000 engine to the $1.99 plugs are tested and working.

Raines finest night was the fall race at Lowe's. In that race he led 28 laps (the only laps led of the year) on his way to a 7th place finish. It was also his highest driver rating of the season with a 97.0. This was the key piece of a solid run down the stretch. In the final seven races, Raines' average finish was 19.2. The strong finish coincided with a crew chief change. Phillipe Lopez was promoted to competition director, opening the door for Brandon Thomas to call the shots for Raines. Thomas was last a crew chief with Bobby Labonte at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2004.

Raines can't get comfortable with his solid 2006. His sponsor DLP Texas Instruments was ranked in the top ten for greatest visibility. This basically means that Texas Instruments has a lot invested in the team. Now that the team has progressed past the infant stage, improved results will also be expected. Raines was brought back for 2007, but nothing is certain long term. Is he the driver to elevate HoF to an elite team? He needs to continue improving his results throughout the season. He has run well in other series, including four wins in the Truck Series. His strength is the intermediate speedways. Fortunately the 2006 notes from these tracks will still be relevant in 2007. Raines should have comfort heading to the type of track that comprises 40% of the schedule.

Long term, the team is working towards a second team. This is the only way to stay current in NASCAR. Multiple cars to share notes and date is the only way to keep up. The alternative is winding up like Morgan-McClure or worse, PPI Racing. This expansion will be Lopez' main focus as competition director. His other project is the Car of Tomorrow. Like every team next year, crews must have two track minds. One for the normal speedway cars and another focusing on the CoT. Hall of Fame will again be able to tap into Gibbs' resources and support to ensure this goes smoothly. As long as they have this connection with Gibbs, they will always have top equipment that the team can grow into.

The outlook for Raines is a top 25 finish in the points with 2 or 3 top tens. Avoiding trouble is again a large key in how he finishes. The Chase isn't a realistic goal this year. The points neighborhood consists of veteran drivers like Dale Jarrett, Jeff Green and Joe Nemechek, and Raines can compete with all of them.

Previous Previews:

NASCAR Driver Preview: AJ Allmendinger

2006-12-15T10:05:00.000-08:00

AJ Allmendinger
Age: 25
Crew Chief: Rick Viers

Of the seven rookies scheduled to appear in 2007, the greatest unknown is AJ Allmendinger. Maybe unknown isn't the right word, how about greenest rookie in stock cars? Every rookie is a wildcard to some degree. Juan-Pablo Montoya comes from an open-wheel background with very little stock car experience. At least Montoya is with an established team that is inside the top 35. David Reutimann will drive for Toyota and will have no owner’s points. At least Reutimann has 107 combined starts among the three NASCAR series. Allmendinger begins with two strikes. He has little stock car experience and will drive for Team Red Bull, a team yet to run a NASCAR race. A brand new driver to stock cars hired by a brand new team. It will be a rough season all around. It is difficult to know exactly how the year will play out because there is not a lot known about Team Red Bull.

So what do we know about Allmendinger? He spent the last three years in the Champ Car World Series. After four second place finishes in 2005, he enjoyed a breakout year in 2006. He won five races, including three straight, and finished third in points. He was one of three Americans to race in the CCWS in 2006, and the only one with more than one start.

During his off weeks in 2006, Allmendinger began testing a truck for Bill Davis Racing. He drove in three Craftsman Truck races, and stoking an interest in stock car racing for Allmendinger. His NASCAR debut was at the New Hampshire truck race. He qualified 33rd and grinded out a 13th place finish. That was followed by a fifth at Talladega. For his first two races in a top stock car series, it was impressive. His final race of the year was at Atlanta. After qualifying on the outside front row, he crashed on the fifth lap. He also attempted to qualify for the Atlanta and Texas Cup events. Cup qualifying was rained out and he was too slow at Texas.

At this point Allmendinger’s stock car resume is three truck races and two failed Cup races. If you are keeping score, that’s 307 truck laps, 2 qualifying laps at Texas and 26 practice laps at Texas. No driver in recent memory has landed a full-time Cup with such little experience. By comparison Montoya raced in 7 races among ARCA, Busch and Cup.

Further, Allmendinger has little oval experience compared to an open wheel driver transitioning from the IRL. The only ovals he raced at in ChampCar were Milwaukee and Las Vegas. Vegas is the only track that has a Cup event. Drivers like Montoya and Sam Hornish are much more familiar with many of the Nextel Cup's oval tracks.

Allmendinger is only 25, and is certainly a top prospect in any racing series. This doesn't mean he won't succeed in NASCAR. It only points out the enormous hurdles he faces compared to other rookies and young drivers in the ranks.

In a whirlwind season, the two tracks that will lend comfort are Sonoma and Watkins Glen. Road racing obviously shouldn’t be a problem. Sonoma is too soon in the year to expect great success, Allmendinger will still be getting comfortable to the heavier, less precise stock cars. Watkins Glen should be circled on the schedule. By August, he should be ready to make a serious run at a top ten or top five.

So what do we know about Team Red Bull? Not as much as other teams. While Michael Waltrip Racing seems to have frequent releases and announcements, Red Bull tends to keep a lower profile. Aside from deep pockets, Team Red Bull does not assume any competitive advantages to help their 2007 campaign. No owners points or champion provisional, zero NASCAR races started which also means very few notes from 2006. Their key hires have come from top organizations like Evernham, Ford Racing and especially luring Doug Richert from Roush Racing.

Crew Chief Rick Viers will be the largest key to Allmendinger's progress. Viers worked last year for Bill Davis Racing, helping in the Truck Series as well as Bill Lester's two Cup races. He also was crew chief during Allmendinger's three Truck races. Job number one is finding a fast qualfying setup. Once they make some races the goals must be to get laps, avoid too many crashes and start compiling a good notebook. Finding a Busch ride for more seat time would help too.

Allmendinger is obviously talented and plenty of open wheel drivers have succeeded in Cup. Unfortunately, 2007 might be the most competitive season ever. Making the field every week will be challenging for the 10-15 teams outside the magical 35 window. The good news is that Red Bull and Toyota are prepared to struggle next year, and Allmendinger should get plenty of leniency. Once he does figure it out, Red Bull might reap the rewards for thinking outside the box.

Post-Poned

2006-12-15T07:45:00.000-08:00

I was all ready to finish today's preview after work last night. That was the plan before a huge storm hit Portland (now that's trouble in river city) and knocked the power out for four and a half hours. Apparently the computers and the internet are completely reliant on power, so the posting didn't get done. I know, poor excuse right? Well, I'll buy a generator tonight to ensure my seven-reader supported blog continues humming in future catastrophes.

I should be able to finish it today. It's on A.J. Allmendinger, which is quite tasty on rice. Stay dry!

NASCAR Driver Preview: Michael Waltrip

2006-12-13T22:18:00.000-08:00

Michael Waltrip			Age: 43
#55 NAPA Toyota			Crew Chief: David Hyder
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
33	0	0	0	1
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points	Driver Rating
0	31.9	30.9	36th	42.3

For the first time since 1986 Michael Waltrip did not score a top ten finish. 1986 was also the last time
Waltrip did not start a Cup race. In fact, he missed three plus a fourth race where he purchased his entry. On the track 2006 was a disaster for Waltrip.

How bad was it? He had one finish (14th at Talladega) inside the top fifteen. He had a mere 5 lead lap finishes compared to 7 DNF's. It's never a good sign when you have more DNF's than lead lap finishes. Beyond his the DNF's he had 15 "bottom 10's". To ensure he made the first five races, he purchased owners points from Doug Bawel and the defunct #77 Penske team. This luxury was quickly squandered by poor finishes. By the ninth race, Waltrip was outside the top 35 for good. Things only swirled further down the drain from there. Waltrip did not qualify
for the Coca Cola 600, but purchased Derrick Cope’s ride to satisfy his sponsor, Napa. It’s unclear whether Napa
was satisfied with Waltrip’s 41st place finish at Charlotte. Waltrip also missed the second largest race, the Brickyard 400 plus Richmond and Homestead.

After several great runs in 2005 while showing some serious skill, 2006 seemed like a wasted year on track. After an 18th at the Daytona 500, the year took an immediate dive. Blown engines, faulty brakes and crashes explained some of the problems. Sometimes Waltrip made problems for himself. At the spring Bristol race, he misunderstood his spotter and plowed into two crashed cars, half a lap after the original wreck. Mechanical failures or plain bad luck is one thing; every driver endures both. Adding poor judgment to the problems really compounds matters. The one relatively bright spot was his Busch Series efforts. A second place at the fall Charlotte race highlighted 3 top tens in 21 starts.

Sure his on-track record was dreadful, but his off track activities were very successful. Toyota appointed him to be the flagship team for their 2007 entry to Cup. He secured enough sponsorship for three cars and hired Dale Jarrett and David Reutimann to drive. He also hired a lot of organizational talent: Ty Norris, Matt Borland, Larry Carter and David Hyder among others. Don’t let his goofy, sponsor-pitching personality fool you; he has a definite plan for his company. Sponsors obviously love him and that is a big part of any organization. When he announced he was leaving DEI for Bill Davis Racing, it was a puzzling move. Of course that was before he was granted the task of starting a new organization from scratch. While it essentially cost him his 2006 season, his long range plans remain on course.

Waltrip probably won’t see great improvement in 2007. Plate tracks will again be his strength. Even in an under-supported Charger, Waltrip had his strongest races at Daytona and Talladega. His experience in the draft is a huge asset, especially when the strength of his cars is unknown. Making the Daytona 500 shouldn’t be a problem and would get his team off to a solid start.

It might be surprising that based on average finish, Waltrip’s best track is Sonoma (avg finish 15.9, 7 top tens in 15 races). Aside from plate tracks, he has also been historically solid at Charlotte and Bristol. Waltrip has 675 career starts, fourth most among drivers with a 2007 ride. Waltrip must rely on his vast experience to regain his pre-2006 form.

Qualifying isn’t a great strength, although he did capture the pole at Pocono in 2005. It was his first pole since George H Bush was in office. His best effort last year was 19th and his average start was 31.9.

While Waltrip is capable of putting together strong runs at any track, he has never finished in the top ten in points. Even in his best years at DEI, Waltrip struggled with weekly consistency. He can’t afford to start the year erratically. David Hyder will be the crew chief in 2007. He worked with Ken Schrader for the last two years as crew chief first at BAM racing and last year at Wood Brothers. Creating immediate chemistry between the two will be vital for the season.

Overall, the Toyota cars will struggle initially. Many people have predicted dominance from Toyota, but that will not be in 2007. The biggest challenge will be the intermediate tracks. These tracks are the most aerodynamically intense and require the most R&D help. Perhaps the one program where MWR and Toyota are on an even playing is the Car of Tomorrow. Other established teams already have an inventory of 2006 cars and the associated technology, but everyone is starting at the ground floor with the new CoT.

Returning to the top 35 is definitely attainable. He is capable of collecting a few top tens, although improving on his 2 top 15 finishes is a more immediate goal. Like the other Toyota teams, simply making races to lay the groundwork for future seasons is priority one. After having his feet in two camps last year, Waltrip can finally focus all of his efforts in one place in 2007. That doesn’t mean he will be less busy, but probably more focused in one place.

Nascar Driver Preview: Jeremy Mayfield

2006-12-12T19:33:00.000-08:00

Jeremy Mayfield			Age: 37
#36 OTC 360 Toyota			Crew Chief: Tommy Baldwin
Nextel Cup Stats
Starts	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 15's
22	0	0	0	2
Poles	Avg Start	Avg Finish	Points Rank	Driver Rating
0	24.3	28.6	39th	53.6
Running at Finish	Lead Lap Finish	Laps Led	DNF	Earnings
19	9	15	3	$2,546,999

At least Mayfield has an appropriate sponsor for 2007. OTC 360 can help relieve the heartburn that was his ’06 season. Without dwelling too much on the tabloid-esque drama, here’s a quick summary. Prior to 2006, Ray Evernham moved Mayfield’s team director Kenny Francis to Kasey Kahne’s team. Mayfield struggled so badly that he fell out of the top 35 in owner’s points. After the Brickyard in August he was replaced by Bill Elliott, which led to Mayfield filing a lawsuit against Evernham. He was eventually replaced by Elliott Sadler. Meanwhile Mayfield signed with Bill Davis Racing to drive a new second car in 2007. There were other, less important details that came out on both sides of the Mayfield-Evernham squabble that didn’t relate to his on-track performance. They only made things ugly for both parties and left Mayfield without a ride for the rest of the season.

Whatever story you believe, you can’t deny Mayfield’s ugly results in 2006. He was one of seven drivers to qualify for the Chase in 2004 and 2005. In 2006 he struggled to stay in the top 35 in owner’s points.

In 2005 he made the Chase on the strength of finishing races on the lead lap. If he wasn’t racking up top fives, at least he was consistently staying out of trouble. There was a lot of talk about how the Dodge teams struggled with the new Charger, so the fact that Mayfield rarely ran up front was excused.

This past year, it was more obvious that something with Mayfield’s driving style didn’t work with what Evernham’s program. The team figured out some key elements with the Charger. Kasey Kahne won three of the first 12 races. Scott Riggs had three top tens and one pole in the same span. Riggs also had several other races where he ran in the top ten the majority of the race. Meanwhile Mayfield struggled from the start.

It wasn’t even a case of bad luck or getting caught up in other’s wrecks. He had two DNF’s all year. It was more a case of Mayfield flat out struggling. He only had four top twenty finishes all year and zero top tens. Mayfield also had a 53.6 driver rating for the season, placing him with the back markers and field fillers.

The relative high point was a two race stretch in the spring. He qualified 2^nd at both Charlotte and Dover before finishing 15th and 18th respectively. Mayfield had his best race at Dover. He led 14 laps and ran in the top 20 all day. It was also his highest driver rating, 82.5. For context, an 82.5 is about a 15th place car. Unfortunately, he would not have another finish better than 22nd.

It’s hard to believe Mayfield’s claims that Evernham didn’t provide enough support for the 19 car. Mayfield’s entire fleet of top 15 caliber cars moved with Francis to Kahne’s team. Meanwhile Mayfield’s team built all new cars. Whatever technological advances Evernham discovered during the off-season would have been applied to the new batch of cars. Further, Sadler jumped in and finished tenth in his first race.

Moving forward, Mayfield is certainly better than his 2006 season. He is also not an elite driver. He is sandwiched somewhere in the middle. Given the right equipment he can compete for the occasional win but is not going to lead a lot of laps or threaten for a top ten every week.

For 2007, it turns out falling out of the top 35 was good practice for Mayfield. Qualifying will be the biggest hurdle for all the Toyota teams initially. Making the first five races for Mayfield is paramount. If he doesn’t, his season could slide very quickly.

Former Evernham crew chief Tommy Baldwin will call the shots for Mayfield this year. Ironically Baldwin began 2006 as Sadler’s crew chief at RYR before being released to join Bill Davis Racing. Before Mayfield signed, Baldwin stepped in as Michael Waltrip’s crew chief to finish the year.

Mayfield’s best tracks on tour are Dover, Darlington and Pocono. He has two wins, four top 5’s and nine top 10’s at the triangular Pocono.

While 2007 might be a disjointed year for Mayfield, the long term future is solid for BDR and Toyota. Bill Davis is a powerhouse in the truck series and with Toyota’s support will now turn its focus to Cup. For the first time in four years Davis will have manufacturer support for his Cup teams. Davis will have two fully sponsored Cup cars for the first time since 2003.

When setting goals for Mayfield and the #36 car, it’s important to remember that this is a brand new team with a brand new manufacturer. To qualify for at least 90% of the races (32+), get inside the top 35 in points, and capture one or two top tens. If all of these things happen it sets a nice foundation for 2008. If Mayfield struggles to qualify or can’t run well enough to stay inside the top 35, things could get frustrating. Mayfield can’t get caught up in short term success in ’07, when the team won’t be ready to really compete until 2008.